Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance : EquiSpace

World Series of Horse Racing?

cdawahare — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:24:00 GMT

By Gene Kershner, EquiSpace

While checking out some of John Daly's funky golf pants the other day, I started thinking about the Skins Game, a made-for-TV golf event, usually held around Thanksgiving which would bring together that year's hottest names in golf. This led me to thinking about how what kind of made for TV event could bring horse racing back into the mainstream again after the Triple Crown Season is put to rest. Also, in my thought process was how can we get Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra into the same race. Golf used to put together its four major winners into the World Series of Golf match that was a made-for-TV event, which is now the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. This got the gears (squirrels) spinning in my head even further. Using Ernie Munick's idea of a race during halftime of the Thanksgiving Day Lions game, which would be the perfect time to produce my dream event called the World Series of Horse Racing, which could be held during the fall meet at Churchill Downs. Can you think of a better time slot for promoting horse racing to the masses?

Here's how a horse would qualify:

1) Must win a Grade I over 8.5 furlongs

2) Must be at least 3 years old

3) Field limited to top 14 qualifiers based on set criteria (i.e, standings, earnings)

Based on the above criteria, here is the list of the top 20 horses through June 30^th that would qualify for the WS of Horse Racing event if we used the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance Standings based on a point system for graded wins:

1	Rachel Alexandra
2	Einstein
3	Pioneerof the Nile
4	Mine That Bird
5	Stardom Bound
6	Life is Sweet
7	Summer Bird
8	Santa Teresita
9	Quality Road
10	General Quarters
11	Seventh Street
12	Hooh Why
13	Macho Again
14	Zenyatta
15	Well Armed
16	I Want Revenge
17	Albertus Maximus
18	Seattle Smooth
19	Jonesboro
20	Magical Fantasy

That's a pretty impressive list of horses vying for the national championship of racing. You've got the Classic winners, you've got the Dubai Cup winner, you've got Zenyatta, in addition to quality 3 year olds like I Want Revenge, Quality Road and Pioneerof the Nile and quality older horses like Einstein and Macho Again. Talk about a monster race that would generate some unbelievable chatter, not only in horse racing land, but in the main stream.

Of course there are a slew of other issues to work out like weight assignments, purse money, television rights, my vig (thought I'd slip that one in there), how it affects the Breeders Cup, etc. Of course, Wayne Lukas will probably put this out there next year as his idea anyway.

Could it work?

Why Can't Racing Generate America's Next Great Hero?

cdawahare — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 21:57:00 GMT

By Gene Kershner, EquiSpace

I'm thinking the timing is right.

A-Rod (I refuse to call him A-Fraud) is campaigning for forgiveness for taking performance-enhancing drugs. Michael Phelps has potentially lost millions for his recent appearance with that piece of equipment that rhymes with "wrong". The NFL is a daily police blotter, this week alone, Marshawn Lynch, Ahmad Bradshaw and Super Bowl winning kicker Jeff Reed were in the news for being on the wrong side of the law (and the law won). Lest we forget to mention what Michael Vick has done to his fans. How 'bout the Plaxico fiasco? Basketball is not exactly unscathed, I've run out of fingers to count the number of paternity suits currently pending. The closest we can come to the Great American Hero out of the four majors is Lebron James, and we'll see what the King does to his hometown Cleveland when the Big Apple comes a callin'.

So with all of the bad news out there in sports lately, isn't the timing perfect for a horse to capture a nation and propel our sport back on the front pages? The question we face annually, is whether there is a horse out there that can corral the Triple Crown, one of the most challenging feats out there over a timeframe from May 2nd to June 6th. When I googled "Triple Crown Hero", the horses who show up, first and foremost, are Secretariat, Affirmed and Seattle Slew. Horses that did the trick back in the 70's. So who is it? Old Fashioned? Not sure he can go the mile and a quarter, especially if he gets hooked into another speed duel up front (highly likely) in Louisville. What about one of the SoCal horses (The Pamplemousse, Pioneerof the Nile or Chocolate Candy)?

How about a jockey? When I googled hero above, the only jock that showed up was Stevie Cauthen. That's right, the 1977 Sportsman of the Year who has four SI covers under his belt. Can you believe it's been 32 years? With the new Animal Planet series bringing jockeys to the forefront of reality television, is there any chance a jockey can capture the hero role this year? Garret Gomez will most likely be on Pioneerof the Nile for Bob Baffert, can the two time Eclipse winner grab the spotlight by winning his first Derby? Last year Desormeaux and Big Brown had it within reach, only to pull up short, but the major sports weren't on the downer they are mired in the controversy they are in today.

Our pal Ernie Munick has suggested many times in the past a big race at halftime or intermission of a major sporting event (i.e. Curlin vs. Big Brown match race on Thanksgiving Day??) could generate a new hero or rooting interest for our sport.

The Vacancy light is ON, I just hope, for our sports sake, there's a horse or jock out there that flips the switch. Whaddya think?

The Men Behind the Curtain

cdawahare — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 16:34:00 GMT

By Gene Kershner, EquiSpace

It's puzzling to me.

Back in September, Gathering the Wind had an excellent post titled with another word I had to look up (stochastics) regarding horse racing stewards and how they are simply out of the public eye. This being unlike the big four, wherein the referees or umpires must make a call in plain view and in the case of hockey and football are miked to explain the foul or decision at hand. This is especially evident in NFL instant replay situations wherein a challenge is made by a coach, the referee looks at the replays and talks to the booth upstairs and then informs the crowd and television network of the call and the basis for it (sometimes even citing the rule book).

John Pricci also was torqued up about it this summer after the sting of being disqualified out of three investment wagers by the stewards on the same day!! He went on to write:

"Whenever a disqualification occurs, a written explanation should be made public. Such transparency is something that many segments of the racing media have been imploring the tracks to do for years. The problems facing the game, as everyone knows, are myriad. This is an easy one to fix, but nobody will step up and do the right thing. The majority of Mother Goose betting public lost about a half-million dollars on a bad call."

Pricci went on in his post to blast the New York State Racing & Wagering Board (ala Steve Crist) and we've heard nothing since then. After a little digging I found that in Australia, the stewards file written reports made public daily. Here is an example from Gosford Racecourse. That would seem to be step one to eliminate the transparency and provide some accountability by reporting the decisions made during the day's card in a written format.

Another idea would be to take a page from the NFL, and when an inquiry is made that it is first disclosed to the fans and broadcast/simulcast viewership by the stewards (who made the inquiry and what it was) and then the decision be announced disclosing the reason for either ignoring the inquiry or for taking down the horse(s) in question. The decision would be clear to all in attendance as to the reason and wouldn't be the mystery that it is now.

It would be a first step for the regulators to start including it on their agendas, as it has been something that seems to be brought up every time there is a questionable decision and is brewing in the horseplayer ranks. It would be best to give the accountability some consideration before something happens in a really big race (see Breeders Cup or Triple Crown race), which is usually what it takes before something changes.

'Capping the Breeders Cup is a 'Synch'

cdawahare — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 20:19:00 GMT

By Gene Kershner, Equispace

So we've had 22 days of racing on the new Pro-Ride surface at the Oak Tree Meet at Santa Anita through today and what have we learned. Well for one, it takes a long time to chart the analysis of every synthetic race to see if there are any angles out there. BTW, I was happy to do it and it helped me learn a little about the synthetic as I delve into capping the two big days ahead. (We took a brief timeout to look at the Belmont P6 Tuesday night, to no avail, but a good effort and exercise nonetheless). It's a new surface, but it's going to be around for a long time to come, and although it's new there are some tendencies and biases to watch for.

So what did we find out. Well examining the races similar to how Bill Finley did in his book Betting Synthetic Surfaces, I looked at who was winning the races, wire-to-wire (leading at first call, WTW), stalkers (second or third at first call) or closers (fourth or worse at first call). WTW winners stood at 18.1% (27 of 149 races), Stalkers at 32.2% (48 of 149) and Closers, the leaders at 49.7% (74 of 149). Wow. The wire winners were much lower than Finley's survey of 1,300 conventional dirt tracks where they were around 30 percent. I also broke it down to sprint (races 7 furlongs or less) and route (mile or more) and the figures were similar to the overall percentages with a slight uptick for closers in route races (53.1% winners). In Finley's book, the percentages on 2,039 races run at all distances show the following: WTW (19%), Stalk (26%) and Closer (55%), so the Pro-Ride has held pretty similar to the other synthetic surfaces included in the survey (polytrack, tapeta, cushion track).

Favorites have been winning at a 32.2% clip, very similar to where national averages fall, with more at the sprint level (33.0%) than the route level (30.6%). The hottest post positions have been Post 5 and 6, winning at a 18.2% and 15.1% clip, respectively. The cooler positions appear to be inside, where the rail is only at 8.1% and the 2 post is at 9.4%. The center of the track appears to be producing more winners on the Pro-Ride. Good to know. The inside positions are even worse in sprints (7% at #1 and 9% at #2). Other notables, there have only been 3 winners in the three outside posts (all in the 12 hole), none coming from post 13 or 14 (in a limited amount of races).

Gene Kershner blogs at EquiSpace.

Is It Time to Change the Triple Crown Format?

cdawahare — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:12:00 GMT

By Gene Kershner & Patrick Patten

Back in June, Gene mentioned briefly on his EquiSpace blog that it might be time to change the format of the Triple Crown races. Heresy, you say? Well, number one, he wouldn't change the venues (although Pimlico is not located in the best neighborhood in the world) and number two, he wouldn't change the distances, as both have extreme historical significance. What we do propose is a change in the dates that the races are scheduled. Actually, the idea is only to change the dates of two of the races, which only would affect one weekend. Why not change them to the First Saturdays of May, June and July 4^th weekend.

Why would this work?

It would provide more time for the horses to recover from minor scratches or injuries suffered in the previous race. It might actually make it harder for a horse to win the Triple Crown as the Preakness might not be so "skippable."
It would increase the time for drama to build between the races and heighten awareness to horse racing over a three month period, not a seven week period as it is now. One of the best shows this past year on cable was Mayweather/De La Hoya 24/7. Imagine a camera crew following around the jockeys, trainers and connections for a reality TV show after the Derby, and possibly with the Triple Crown on the line.
It sets up the premier summer races (Haskell - First Saturday in August, finishing off with the Travers in late August) with nice spacing where a horse could skip one and have two months off to the next marquee 3yo race. Maybe NYRA would then move the Travers back to the First Saturday in September to spark attendance in the Spa's final weekend?

With any idea, there are counter-arguments and reasons not to change:

Frank from That's Amore Stable blog points out that "the longer time between races, the higher likelihood that another track will schedule a richer race in between and steal the Kentucky Derby winner, thus rendering the series useless. That's why Spend A Buck's (1985) name doesn't appear in the Preakness or Belmont annals -- he skipped both to win the Jersey Derby with a big purse and a $2 million bonus." An excellent point, and another change to be considered is to increase the purses of the Preakness and Belmont Stakes (both currently $1M purses) to eliminate this potential situation to arise.

The tradition and history to win three Grade 1 races in a six week span could diminish, in some folk's eyes, the accomplishment over the shortened time span of the current Triple Crown scheduled. But it's not like we're introducing the designated hitter here. The Triple Crown has gone through many incarnations.

So, which side are you on? Let's not burn the authors at the stake here, this is pretty middle of the road.