Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance : Rob Fundter

Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Endorsement

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 00:32:00 GMT

By Rob Fundter, aka Amateurcapper

The G.3 Sunland Derby looked very competitive going in. Last year's 4^th place finisher, MINE THAT BIRD, went on to win the Kentucky Derby - presented by Yum! brands. When the New Mexico track's dust had cleared on March 28, 2010, ENDORSEMENT, not AMERICAN LION, RULE or SUPER SAVER, was the WinStar Kentucky Derby contender on the lips of ardent Derby Trail enthusiasts and horseplayers. The winner crossed the wire 1:48.46 after the bell rung, the fastest winning time for the race since it was extended to 9 furlongs in 2005. The 11-1 fourth choice ran down CONVEYANCE, a loose-on-the-lead, previously undefeated, multiple G.3-winning Bob Baffert trainee who's also earned his way into the Derby starting gate.

While the son of DISTORTED HUMOR did not run a personal internal fraction as fast as ICE BOX did in the Florida Derby, I consider ENDORSEMENT's third quarter mile fraction in :23.67 just as impressive considering the race situation. CONVEYANCE had slowed the pace down in the second ¼ mile (:24.33) after asserting himself as the alpha-speed through an opening ¼ in :23.71. Martin Garcia attempted to put the race away with a decisive third ¼ and CONVEYANCE responded gamely with a speedy :23.87 fraction.

Instead of extending the lead, CONVEYANCE and Garcia found the gap narrowed. The "double move" strategy had worked to sap the late energy of second and third choices NACHO FRIEND and TEMPTED TO TAPIT, who would finish 5^th and 3^rd, respectively. Surprisingly to Garcia and Baffert, it was recent Fair Grounds maiden special weight winner ENDORSEMENT, not CONVEYANCE, who was full of run. Robby Albarado had yet to move on the well-bred chestnut colt while Garcia had the 3-5 favorite in a drive on the turn.

ENDORSEMENT hit the lead at the 1/8 pole with yet another sub-:24 fraction and, as Trevor Denman would say, "it's only a matter of how far" as the advantage was extended to three lengths at the wire. Trainer Shannon Ritter had her colt supremely prepared for the biggest race of his life, which qualified him for the biggest race of any three-year-old's life on the first Saturday in May. ENDORSEMENT's fastest internal ½ mile fraction of :47.54 was the fastest ½ mile increment of any entrant in the field. It was imbedded in his personal final 5 furlongs clocked in an impressive 1:00.12, the fastest traditional dirt finish at 1 1/8 miles during this prep season.

By comparison, Derby favorite ESKENDEREYA has two 9 furlong races this year with his final 5 furlongs clocked in 1:00.56 (Wood Memorial) and 1:00.75 (Fountain of Youth). ESKENDEREYA's fastest internal fractions in the Wood (:48.32) and FOY (:48.12) indicate his final five furlong times were aided by chasing relatively slow fractions. The pace in the Derby figures to be hot and heavy, which will force John Velazquez to use ESKENDEREYA early or take the chestnut colt farther back than he'd ever been on the dirt while chasing the fastest fractions he's faced.

On past performance, ENDORSEMENT is equally as vulnerable as ESKENDEREYA considering their similar running styles and their expected positions close to the projected fast pace in the Derby. However, with just four career starts ENDORSEMENT is far from pigeon-holed as being a confirmed presser. His edge over ESKENDEREYA is that he's successfully chased down a confirmed speed horse in CONVEYANCE, who ran relatively fast fractions and finished in 1:49.06 posting the third-fastest time in the six years it's been run at 1 1/8 miles.

ENDORSEMENT will have five weeks between races, the same break that led to BARBARO's impressive Kentucky Derby win. While it is a major stretch to mention ENDORSEMENT in the same breath with the ill-fated '06 Derby winner, my point is that the break is ample time to recover from that career-best effort. There's no reason to believe that he can't at least repeat that effort at Churchill Downs. Will that be strong enough to contend for the win? Maybe, maybe not...but I will note that he feels strong enough at this stage of development for Robby Albarado to choose him over G.1 winner and top three money earning 3y.o. NOBLE'S PROMISE.

One thing is certain, win or lose in the Kentucky Derby, the Sunland Derby gave us the ‘endorsement' that WinStar Farm will be a breeding/racing operation to respect along the Derby trail and beyond for many years to come!

Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 13:49:00 GMT

By Rob Fundter, aka Amateurcapper

ICE BOX ran the most compelling internal fractions of the Kentucky Derby prep season en route to his 20-1 Florida Derby upset on March 20. What is the likelihood he can repeat that effort on May 1 at Churchill Downs? Considering multiple Kentucky Derby winning trainer Nick Zito is calling the shots, very good!

In the Florida Derby, multiple G.3 winner RULE was the 9-5 favorite. The speedy colt was trying to stretch his brilliant speed out to 9 furlongs. Unbeknownst to nearly everyone not named Corey Nakatani and Patrick Biancone, newly-blinkered PULSION rocketed to the lead through an opening ¼ in :23.21. RULE would press him just a head back through a nearly identical second ¼ mile in :23.25, virtually eliminating the winning chances of ordinary, stretch-running also-rans.

Lurking in last place was ICE BOX, open lengths from next-to-last LENTENOR. Visually, I was impressed that RULE hung on gamely for third, considering ICE BOX and nose loser PLEASANT PRINCE plodding pace beneficiaries.

What amazed me from chart dissection is that despite staying in last place, ICE BOX ran his second ¼ in :22.75 recording the fastest internal fraction of any horse in the race! Indicating he's no ordinary, one-run closer ICE BOX slowed down faster in each successive fraction than any other horse in the race. His third ¼ was a remarkable :24.00, a fourth ¼ in a :24.33 show of stamina, both fractions part of an impressive final 5 furlongs in 1:00.93. Contrast those raw pace figures with his Fountain of Youth splits, in which he recorded the fastest internal ½ mile split (:47.29). His second ¼ was run in :23.50, third ¼ in :23.79, fourth ¼ in :24.93 with a final 5 furlongs in 1:02.75. Clearly, this March foal is improving leaps and bounds now that he's chronologically turned three years old.

ICE BOX doesn't look all that different this year than SUMMER BIRD, the 2009 champion three-year-old male, did last year coming into the Kentucky Derby. SUMMER BIRD's final prep, a third to PAPA CLEM and OLD FASHIONED in the then-G.2 Arkansas Derby, was eerily similar to the subject colt's Florida Derby win:

HORSE	RACE	1^st quarter	2^nd quarter	3^rd quarter	4^th quarter	Final 1/8	Final 5f
Summer Bird	Ark. Derby ‘09	:25.65	:22.64	:24.16	:25.00	:11.76	1:00.92
Ice Box	Florida Derby ‘10	:25.51	:22.75	:24.00	:24.33	:12.60	1:00.93

In the Kentucky Derby, ICE BOX will get ample pace to chase. Currently AMERICAN LION, CONVEYANCE, DISCREETLY MINE, LINE OF DAVID, RULE, SIDNEY'S CANDY, and SUPER SAVER all are top 20 earners who've led virtually gate-to-wire in at least one prep at either age two or three. The already crowded front end in the Derby can grow more contentious and speedy if Blue Grass runner-up and #19 earner PADDY O'PRADO makes the race. The Dale Romans trainee was part of the fastest fractions when compared with other Blue Grass renewals after Keeneland switched to Polytrack. Likely Derby favorite ESKENDEREYA, owner of the two top Beyer speed figures of 2010 sophomores, never races far from the leader which will add to the intensity in the leading group and should enhance the late run of ICE BOX.

By the productive A.P. INDY stallion PULPIT, ICE BOX has stamina-rich blood from his TABASCO CAT broodmare SPICE ISLAND. In appearance, his chestnut coat would be inherited from damsire TABASCO CAT, winner of the Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 1994. SPICE ISLAND captured turf graded stakes on the grass at 1 3/8 miles and 1 ½ miles. Third dam BELLE DE JOUR, by 1987 Kentucky Derby and Preakness S. winner ALYSHEBA, produced 1985 Kentucky Derby winner SPEND A BUCK. Bottom line, ICE BOX should adore every bit of the 1 ¼ mile Derby distance. Jockey Jose Lezcano can wait until the third ¼ mile to pick off the inevitable also-rans. The momentum ICE BOX produces through the middle of the Derby will put the colt into a winning position at the mile mark. The final ¼ mile always goes to the horse with the best combination of racing luck and stamina.

Without a high-class juvenile campaign, the same lack of experience that may have limited SUMMER BIRD in last year's Derby, the question is whether ICE BOX has the bottom and class at this stage of development to reproduce his Florida Derby win? The six weeks between races could be the mini-freshening that SUMMER BIRD wasn't afforded (he had only three weeks from final prep to Derby), allowing ICE BOX to recover from the taxing race at Gulfstream Park.

Last year's version of ICE BOX was SUMMER BIRD. After a 6^th place Derby finish, the "other Bird" became a champion. Whether ICE BOX can match or exceed that colt's accomplishments remains to be seen. One thing is certain, Nick Zito knows what he has in ICE BOX. Translation: look out Derby field!

P.S. I've analyzed the charts of the Kentucky Derby preps upside down and sideways. I would enjoy any and all comments at my blog, which features a complete recap of the Santa Anita Derby, a ESKENDEREYA / LOOKIN AT LUCKY dream Triple Crown rivalry, and a pretty thorough run down of Pool 2 final odds in two parts (#1 and #2).

Also, check out the TBA homepage where you can digest as little or as much horse racing information you can swallow.

Enjoy the final bit before the Derby!

Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Blood-Horse Staff — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 23:08:00 GMT

By Rob Fundter, The Amateur Capper

After winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for his undefeated, six race G.1 2009 campaign, the Irish “Horse of the World” may skip the Breeders’ Cup; the new star of the “World Thoroughbred Championship” weekend…it’s locally based LOOKIN AT LUCKY!

The Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships may have to endure another major defection of a 3 y.o. with uncommon ability. RACHEL ALEXANDRA has been shut down for the year…old news. After a dazzling Arc win, SEA THE STARS is more unlikely to ship to Santa Anita than his connections led the media to believe in the weeks leading into the storied race at Longchamp. The absence of both horses will be disappointing, no doubt. Fret not, horse racing fans…as Yoda from the Star Wars series once predicted when Anakin Skywalker was lost to the dark side, “There is another…”

LOOKIN AT LUCKY made the G.1 Norfolk S. look deceptively easy. For just over ¾ of the race, the professionalism that he showed in three prior wins was on display from the young son of SMART STRIKE.
He usually breaks well and rates kindly until GARRETT GOMEZ gives him the cue to “go”. Even when he broke from the rail in the G.1 Del Mar Futurity, he waited patiently at the rear until GOMEZ decided to chance a rail run or sweep around horses on the backside and turn. LOOKIN AT LUCKY runs inside, between horses, and can sweep around his competition. He has a magnificent stride, effortless and simple. LOOKIN AT LUCKY exudes class in every race he runs. His dominance of the Southern California juvenile crop was emphasized in the Norfolk S. stretch run.

The 1 ¾ length margin of victory was a testament to the immense talent of the BOB BAFFERT trainee. It sure wasn’t because he was giving 100% the entire length of the stretch. Once he hit the lead, LOOKIN AT LUCKY pricked his ears and started to pull himself up. After all, that was about the distance he’d run when he won the Del Mar Futurity. He’d passed his competition and saw nothing but empty track ahead…LUCKY thought the race was over.

The HRTV isolation picked up the detail beautifully. GOMEZ spanked the colt a few times and reminded him of his unfinished businesses with his signature, emphatic crosses. LOOKIN AT LUCKY twitched his left ear back as if to say “Oh, do you want me to care about that plucky little colt on the rail that I’d already passed? I’m sorry, I thought he was done. I hear TREVOR DENMAN saying he’s trying hard to come back so I’ll turn on the afterburners and put him farther in the rear view mirror, okay?”

LUCKY proceeded to pin both ears back, stuck his neck out and lengthened his stride while widening to a comfortable lead in a matter of 100 yards. I had to laugh out loud at what I’d just seen on the replay which stirred interest from my children, who at this point in their lives put up with my love of the sport more than they share the passion. I replayed what I’d seen three times, pointing out how professional LOOKIN AT LUCKY was through the running of the first 7 furlongs of the race. Then I showed them how “green” the colt still was despite apparently having learned his lessons. I paralleled their young lives and experiences to LOOKIN AT LUCKY’s Norfolk run. Sports, human or equine, have always been terrific teachers in my lifetime and I use them whenever I can to guide my children’s development.

LUCKY, not unlike the developing human child, will need to learn how to compete at the top of this game through failure. He’s that talented grade school athlete who runs over and around his less proficient classmates. You remember the kind, built like an athlete already with muscles showing where the other boys still have baby fat. There may even be a bit of facial hair to intimidate his competition a little more. He’s a nice kid, not demoralizing his competition because he just doesn’t know he’s that much better than his friends.

Then, it happens…some of the others develop out of that awkward stage and begin to challenge the status quo. A terrific equine example is the 2007 3y.o. crop. STREET SENSE was the upset, daylight winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Champion 2y.o. of 2006, and became the first horse to break the BC Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx. He left a troubled CURLIN, who entered the Derby undefeated and untested, in his wake.

But CURLIN learned from his Derby run to snatch victory from the hands of defeat. Two weeks later, STREET SENSE was on the verge of competing for the elusive Triple Crown when he stormed past CURLIN in upper stretch to open up by more than a length. Then the competitive light bulb clicked in and CURLIN surged back on the outside to win the Preakness by a nose.

So, who will be LOOKIN AT LUCKY’s foil? Will he become the next SILVER CHARM, a true competitor who will beat most top class horses if given the ability to eyeball them home. At this stage, it appears that we’ll have to wait until the Triple Crown trail to find out who will emerge from this crop as the legitimate challenger. Will it be DUBLIN? How about BACKTALK? Can HOT DIXIE CHICK become 2010’s RACHEL ALEXANDRA?

The only relative certainty will be that LOOKIN AT LUCKY is the most likely Breeders’ Cup race winner. If he succeeds as expected, he will become the 2009 Eclipse Award winner for Juveniles and becomes the early Kentucky Derby favorite.

Is there yet another? At this point it appears that LOOKIN AT LUCKY is THE ONLY ONE!

Breeders' Cup is Half Full

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 15:48:00 GMT

By Rob Fundter, The Amateur Capper

In every division, there will be many compelling vignettes on both days of the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships. The cream is rising to the top as we are a little more than eight weeks out from a weekend of thrilling competition. Eliminate all negative thoughts of what could have been if certain horses would travel to Santa Anita in early November. There are too many good horses and stories to waste time on what could have been.

CLASSIC

RACHEL is obviously the compelling story in this race division and deserves mention as the leading candidate for the Eclipse Award honoring the Horse of the Year. However, if you encounter a fringe racing fan who asks you why she's not running, don't go into a diatribe extolling her virtues and how she's "done enough".

Instead, pump up the horses that have performed in top races in this division. Start off with the essence of a racehorse, recent Pacific Classic runner-up and Santa Anita Handicap winner EINSTEIN who was recently purchased by Santa Anita Park's owner FRANK STRONACH. He wants a house horse with a great shot at winning the big prize at his famous racetrack. RAIL TRIP validated his Hollywood Gold Cup win with another solid race in a 1 ¼ mile G.1 event, finishing 3^rd in the Pacific Classic. Mention also that MACHO AGAIN, the Woodward Stakes runner-up who also won the G.1 Stephen Foster H., has earned nearly $1 million this year alone but stands to win over three times that amount with a Classic win.

Inform them that last year's Eclipse-winning Older Female ZENYATTA could take on the boys, instead of defending her Ladies Classic title, while trying to stamp her would-be perfect 14 race career with a BC Classic exclamation point.

Then warn them that the United States contingent should be prepared for a foreign invasion considering that European based runners finished 1-2 in the Classic last year at this same track. From Ireland comes a beast named SEA THE STARS, considered internationally as the best horse in the world. All he's done is win five G.1 races in five tries this year, all on the grass. It's considered common knowledge that if SEA THE STARS comes to the Breeders' Cup, he will contest the Classic for which English bookmaker William Hill has already made him the 2-1 favorite.

JUVENILE

D. WAYNE LUKAS is back in the national spotlight with Hopeful S. winner DUBLIN, the Hall of Fame trainer's first G.1 win since FOLKLORE took the BC Juvenile Fillies in 2005. It was also his first Hopeful S. win since 2000, a race he's now posed for pictures six times.

Then tell them that LUKAS' successor in Triple Crown race success in the 1990's to early 2000's, BOB BAFFERT, has now won the Del Mar Futurity a record nine times!!! LOOKIN AT LUCKY will try to emulate BAFFERT's champion juvenile of last year, MIDSHIPMAN, who scored in the Juvenile after using the Del Mar Futurity as a stepping stone.

From the Midwest comes Arlington-Washington Futurity winner DIXIE BAND, a runner that Southern California-based jockey DAVID FLORES auditioned for WAYNE CATALANO as a potential Juvenile mount.

Then remind them there is one more major prep race in every circuit which will further narrow the field of juveniles. Juveniles, like human children, seemingly mature overnight. What's the hot stock today, may bottom out 2 months from now while a relatively inexperienced competitor takes the market by storm.

Remind them also that the Juvenile could produce a Kentucky Derby winner, even in defeat. MINE THAT BIRD finished dead last in the Juvenile in '08 but scored a 50-1 shocker on Derby day. In 2007 STREET SENSE became the first Juvenile winner to capture the Derby since the Breeders' Cup started back in 1984.

JUVENILE FILLIES

This could turn into the most exciting race of all. From New York comes Spinaway winner HOT DIXIE CHICK; from the Midwest, emphatic Arlington-Washington Lassie winner SHE BE WILD gave trainer WAYNE CATALANO two terrific hands to play at Santa Anita...oh, by the way, she ran the equivalent of four lengths faster than her male stable mate on the same card! MI SUENO still hasn't figured out how to stay focused through the whole race, but the SOUTHERN EQUINE STABLE runner recovered in enough time to capture the Darley Debutante for her second consecutive graded stakes win.

These are but three interesting races that will be part of an exciting weekend. Enjoy the final prep races throughout the world. It's a great time to be a thoroughbred racing fan!

P.S. Mr. JESS JACKSON: If you and Mr. STEVE ASMUSSEN want to bring RACHEL to join in the fun, you're more than welcome. I'm sure that CHIP WOOLLEY would understand if CALVIN dumped MINE THAT BIRD again to partner with RACHEL in the Classic.

Giant's Causeway and Tiznow

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 21:13:00 GMT

Courtesy of Rob Fundter, The Amateur Capper

TOP STALLIONS THROUGH MID-2009 WERE CONDITIONED BY FAMOUS AIDAN O'BRIEN AND UNDERRATED JAY ROBBINS TO FINISH A NECK APART IN 2000 BC CLASSIC

GIANT'S CAUSEWAY has earned his sire's place atop the North American sire standings from his home at ASHFORD STUD. The son of legendary OVERBROOK stallion STORM CAT is a product of AIDAN O'BRIEN's prolific yard in Ireland. TIZNOW stands at WINSTAR FARM and his progeny are showing the potential to make his sire career as legendary as his back-to-back Breeders' Cup Classic wins. This may not have been possible if TIZNOW, who at age four became the equine version of Allen Iverson ("Practice; we talkin' ‘bout practice?), were handled by anyone other than patient JAY ROBBINS.

On track, GIANT'S CAUSEWAY was 2000 champion 3y.o. in England and Ireland as well as European Horse of the Year. He won eight graded stakes in 13 starts and culminated his career with a "tough beat" to TIZNOW in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Rival TIZNOW won seven graded stakes in 15 career starts was named American Horse of the Year and Champion 3y.o. of 2000, and Champion Older Horse of 2001. His stirring stretch runs winning back-to-back Breeders' Cup Classics, including "TIZNOW wins it for America" post "9-11" at Belmont Park in devastated New York gave the California bred a legitimate shot at a "second career".

GIANT'S CAUSEWAY has a slight edge thus far in the breeding shed. He has sired many good horses including European champion 2y.o/England champion 3y.o. SHAMARDAL in his first crop; there was also HEATSEEKER (G.1 Santa Anita H., multiple G.2's) and dual juvenile G.1 winner FIRST SAMURAI. GIANT'S CAUSEWAY has also been good with his daughters like $1.3 million earner MY TYPHOON (G.1 Diana S., multiple G.2) and last year's G.1 Spinster S. winner CARRIAGE TRAIL. Most recently, SWIFT TEMPER became a millionaire when she captured the G.2 Delaware H.

While TIZNOW was represented by champion 2y.o. filly FOLKLORE in his first crop, his sons have had more top-class success of late. WELL ARMED won the G.1 Dubai World Cup this year as decisively as he was beaten by CURLIN in the 2008 edition. COLONEL JOHN was second favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby (troubled 6^th) on the strength of his G.1 Santa Anita Derby win and proved he could win on dirt with a hard-fought G.1 Travers S. win. DA' TARA upset the '08 Belmont S., denying a troubled/spent BIG BROWN the Triple Crown. TIZNOW also sired two solid, if unspectacular 3y.o. fillies of 2007 in TOUGH TIZ'S SIS (G.1 Ruffian, G.1 Lady's Secret) and G.2 winner BEAR NOW ($1.08 million earnings). It was their misfortune to be born the same year as RAGS TO RICHES.

Young trainer AIDAN O'BRIEN will always be heard from; thus far in 2009, he is the leading trainer in Ireland and ranks second in Great Britain. His connection to the COOLMORE group led by JOHN MAGNIER assures this brilliant conditioner will always be well stocked with talented horses. This year alone, he's represented by top 3y.o.'s: Irish Derby winner FAME AND GLORY, St. James' Palace Stakes victor MASTERCRAFTSMAN, and Coral Eclipse runner-up RIP VAN WINKLE. He's also training venerable 8y.o. marthoner YEATS, most recently a winner of his fourth Ascot Gold Cup. Oh, by the way, he's also bringing along undefeated CAPE BLANCO; the son of GALILEO took the G.3 Tyros S. on July 23 and may return in the G.2 Futurity S. August 22 as a prep for the Stanjames.com 2000 Guineas. He's also trying to get 2,000 Guineas future book favorite STEINBECK back to the races. You get the picture...he's always loaded!

On the other hand, veteran conditioner JAY ROBBINS toils in relative anonymity with a very small stable in Southern California. In a recent interview with Pasadena Star-News' Art Wilson, his father DR. JACK ROBBINS said this about his son: "Jay's only problem is he can't take owners that tell him what to do." DR. ROBBINS added, "He's fired more good opportunities than he's preserved over the years." Through the end of the Santa Anita winter meeting, JAY ROBBINS had a record of 14-1-2-2 for a mere $130,380. That is a far cry from the TIZNOW years when his patient hand conditioned the 2000 Horse of the Year to a record of 15-8-4-3 in 2000-1 with earnings in excess of $6.4 million.

TIZNOW and JAY ROBBINS teamed up for their first Breeders' Cup Classic win in 2000, surviving a heart-pounding stretch battle with Europe's top hope GIANT'S CAUSEWAY for AIDAN O'BRIEN. The battle on the track won by TIZNOW rages on in the breeding shed for the equine warriors. As for the trainers, they were two ships that passed in the glorious Breeders Cup Classic night at Churchill Downs.

141st Belmont Stakes

Blood-Horse Staff — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 06:30:00 GMT

Courtesy of Rob Fundter, The Amateur Capper

CHARITABLE MAN WON’T GIVE AWAY THE FINAL TRIPLE CROWN RACE OF 2009

Unfortunately, there will not be a Triple Crown winner for the 26th consecutive year. MINE THAT BIRD, the 50-1 longshot winner of the Kentucky Derby, ran bravely down the Pimlico stretch but could not catch the Amazonian filly RACHEL ALEXANDRA in the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago.

While I respect that MINE THAT BIRD made a solid showing in the second leg, I cannot change my opinion of him as a legitimate G.1 winner. There have been many winners of Triple Crown races that succeeded because of fortunate circumstance as opposed to great skill. In my lifetime there was GATO DEL SOL in the 1983 Kentucky Derby, LIL E. TEE in the 1991 renewal, and GIACOMO in 2005. Until he proves me wrong, MINE THAT BIRD will be in that class that will never again win a G.1 race after their Derby upsets.

I’m going with CHARITABLE MAN, trained by KIARAN McLAUGHLIN who conditioned 2006 winner JAZIL. Without MINE THAT BIRD, CHARITABLE MAN would have been a heavy favorite. The $200,000 yearling purchase was a graded stakes winner at two, taking the G.2 Futurity at Belmont Park. That day he defeated eventual Louisiana Derby winner and starting Kentucky Derby favorite FRIESAN FIRE. Obviously injured, he was off until contesting the G.1 Blue Grass in April. The layoff, an outside post, and a wide trip made that effort nothing more than an afternoon workout over Keeneland’s Polytrack.

Last out in the G.2 Peter Pan, CHARITABLE MAN settled nicely behind run-off HELLO BROADWAY (entered in the G.2 Woody Stephens over 7f on the undercard). He was deftly handled by ALAN GARCIA who allowed his mount’s natural speed to put him into winning position on the wide Belmont Park far turn. A lesser horse, in only his second start of the year, would have bid for the lead and tired. Not so for the son of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner LEMON DROP KID. CHARITABLE MAN persevered while tiring at a slower rate than his competition.

He owns a tactical advantage on every Belmont Stakes contender but does not need the lead to win. The slower tempo of the 1 ½ mile test of stamina will allow CHARITABLE MAN to use his high cruising speed to be positioned on or just off the lead. He will use the stamina from his sire to get the final ½ mile to win.

There are many horses with pedigree ties to the Belmont Stakes. This will make the Triple Crown “name horse” MINE THAT BIRD, a son of 2004 Belmont Stakes winner BIRDSTONE, heavily played. Clearly he’s been the best of a depleted 3y.o. crop (I WANT REVENGE was scratched the day of the Derby and QUALITY ROAD was declared during Derby week) and has every chance to pick up another minor award on Saturday. With rain in the forecast for Friday, there is a chance there will be moisture in the track which will move MINE THAT BIRD up several lengths. Perhaps circumstances will once again smile upon the CHIP WOOLLEY trainee and CALVIN BOREL can collect a jockey Triple Crown for 2009.

Want to take a swing against the short prices or create value under them? Take your pick among CHOCOLATE CANDY (damsire SEATTLE SLEW), SUMMER BIRD (sire BIRDSTONE), LUV GOV (sire TEN MOST WANTED 2nd in ’03 Belmont S.), and MINER’S ESCAPE (grandsire A.P. INDY won ’92 Belmont S.) to outrun their double digit odds with the help of Belmont Stakes stamina in their genes.

Finally, I am confused that DUNKIRK is coming back so quickly after a terrible stumble in the Kentucky Derby. He is the short price “X-factor” in this year’s race. DUNKIRK started the Kentucky Derby as a well-supported 5-1 second choice on the strength of his fast G.1 Florida Derby second to QUALITY ROAD. After that dismal Derby result, he can bounce back and challenge CHARITABLE MAN and MINE THAT BIRD down the stretch as easily as finish off the board. I just don’t know if that stumble may have caused an injury that will manifest itself during a race. Remember that stumble TODD PLETCHER-trained RAGS TO RICHES had when she upset CURLIN in the 2007 Belmont Stakes? She raced only once more, upset by LEAR’S PRINCESS in the G.1 Gazelle, before an injury was detected. A healthy RAGS TO RICHES would have torched that Gazelle field.

I hope they all come back safe…and CHARITABLE MAN will be posing in the winner’s circle. Enjoy!

Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Fri, 15 May 2009 14:07:00 GMT

Courtesy of Rob Fundter, The Amateur Capper

RACHEL ALEXANDRA has been the best horse on the track in each of her four starts this year. The compelling question in the 134^th Preakness Stakes is whether the filly is more horse than her male counterparts. Pimlico morning line maker FRANK CARULLI believes she is, installing her as the 8-5 favorite, despite the presence of the top four Kentucky Derby finishers.

Her dominance of the 3y.o. filly division in 2009 culminated with a win in the Kentucky Oaks on May 1. Her 20 ¼ length win compelled JESS JACKSON to purchase the likely champion for an undisclosed sum (believed to be in the $10 million range) just five days later. RACHEL has been supplemented to the Triple Crown series for $100,000 making her eligible for the Preakness Stakes this Saturday.

There was much controversy after her new connections confirmed RACHEL ALEXANDRA would be running in the Preakness. Connections of the Derby winner MINE THAT BIRD and runner-up PIONEEROF THE NILE were reportedly conspiring to keep the filly from running, but came to their senses before entries were taken.

RACHEL ALEXANDRA will be heavily supported on the third Saturday in May, in large part because she is the fairer of the equine genders. This sentiment could drive her starting odds even lower than listed despite her. For those enthusiasts who will be placing a wager on the Preakness Stakes, she may not hold enough value. Here are some critical points about RACHEL to consider:

1. UNDEFEATED AROUND TWO TURNS.

RACHEL is not the only entrant with that distinction: BIG DRAMA has won his two tries around two turns and enters today off a fast win in the G.2 Swale S. at Gulfstream Park.

2. UNDEFEATED WITH CALVIN BOREL

The jockey was forced to pick between the Kentucky Derby winner MINE THAT BIRD and RACHEL ALEXANDRA. Borel has been quoted as saying the filly's the best horse he's ever ridden. That's big praise considering he piloted juvenile champion STREET SENSE to '05 Champion 2y.o. and a Derby win and a narrow Preakness defeat just two years ago.

3. WINS ON FAST OR WET DIRT

Her Fair Grounds Oaks win on a sloppy/sealed track was easy, nearly on a par with Louisiana Derby hero FRIESAN FIRE, who'd completed his race in "driving" fashion.

4. HASN'T FACED SPRINTER-QUALITY SPEED

In BIG DRAMA, RACHEL will be forced to chase a pace similar to the one that sapped her late energy as a two year old.

5. DIDN'T RUN IN THE DERBY

Since 1992, only two horses have won the Preakness without starting in the Derby. BERNARDINI posted a big 12-1 upset in 2006 when BARBARO sustained a life-ending (eventually) leg injury. The other was 6-1 RED BULLET in 2000.

The weight assigned to each of these points will help you determine whether RACHEL ALEXANDRA can defeat the boys this Saturday.

Who do I like?

On a fast track, PIONEEROF THE NILE was my Derby selection and his 2^nd in the Derby did nothing to diminish his standing in my eyes. BIG DRAMA is perfectly spotted to use his ample speed to establish a lead and the tight, minimally banked Pimlico turns will help him negotiate the longest race of his career. Like eventual champion sprinter CHEROKEE RUN, I would not be surprised to see BIG DRAMA hang on for a share. PAPA CLEM can improve on his Derby 4^th.

Should the track become "off", MINE THAT BIRD and RACHEL ALEXANDRA will become major threats.

Enjoy the race.

2009 Kentucky Derby Prospects

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Fri, 01 May 2009 14:45:00 GMT

Courtesy of Rob Fundter, The Amateur Capper

AN EMBARRASSMENT OF RICHES: PART 2 – THE UNDERSTUDIES

I'm writing this on early Tuesday a.m. Eastern. The defection of G.1 Florida Derby winner QUALITY ROAD is known, narrowing my top prospect list from Part 1 to three: FRIESAN FIRE, I WANT REVENGE, and PIONEEROF THE NILE. Two of these three are the most accomplished with three graded stakes wins in 2009.

Enough has been written about them...this is about the understudies of what I term the "key" Kentucky Derby preps of 2009 and the winners of selected "important" preps throughout the world. DUNKIRK, PAPA CLEM, CHOCOLATE CANDY, and DESERT PARTY would be headliners any other year except in this very deep crop. An honorable mention will also go to SQUARE EDDIE, the top returning performer from the BC Juvenile.

DUNKIRK has developed so quickly in a short time. The gray son of UNBRIDLED'S SONG was the runner-up in the G.1 Florida Derby after putting a big scare into QUALITY ROAD's rider JOHN VELAZQUEZ. With the likely top two betting favorite declared, DUNKIRK would seem able to step right into the upper echelon of 3y.o.'s. He'll be making the same five week turnaround that was so successful for BIG BROWN last season. The differences: BIG BROWN on steroids, DUNKIRK none. Both had three career races in preparation for the Derby, but DUNKIRK ran all three at Gulfstream Park this season while last year's Derby/Preakness winner debuted at Saratoga as a 2y.o. DUNKIRK is missing a 2y.o. foundation. As a son of UNBRIDLED'S SONG, a sire that gets brilliant but injury prone progeny, the delay in his career may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. If DUNKIRK performs with the vigor many pundits are predicting, he may be the key that unlocks the secret to successfully campaigning his sire's progeny.

As for DUNKIRK's win chance, judgment should be made on whether the five weeks between races was enough to prevent a "bounce" or he repeats. It takes a wonder horse like SECRETARIAT to improve along the Triple Crown trail. That said, DUNKIRK would have been the Derby favorite if he'd won the Florida Derby over QUALITY ROAD. After all, he was 6 lengths clear of 3^rd. With the Jimmy Jerkens trainee awaiting summer 3y.o. stakes at Saratoga, DUNKIRK is primed and ready to step into his leading roll.

PAPA CLEM is a fighter!!! In the G.2 Robert B. Lewis he was the pace presser, put away his foe coming off the turn, only to be passed in early stretch by I WANT REVENGE. Coming off a maiden win vs. more experienced colts, PAPA could have tired to third and his supporters would still have been tickled with the result. Yet the son of SMART STRIKE, sire of '07 Preakness and BC Classic winner CURLIN (en route to HOY honors), battled on down the lane to regain the advantage over I WANT REVENGE but was passed in the final 100 yards by PIONEEROF THE NILE. He didn't have a great plane trip to Louisiana for the G.2 Louisiana Derby and then he didn't handle the sloppy going well down the lane. Despite tiring, he was game to hold off one-paced TERRAIN for 2^nd. Last out in the Arkansas Derby, PAPA CLEM found himself in an uncustomary positiong, chasing from mid-pack while OLD FASHIONED turned on the jets to an uncontested lead. As great horses do, PAPA found the energy to rally wide on the turn and keep fighting down the lane to notch his second career win. More importantly, he earned his way into the lineup with a win despite a less-than-ideal circumstances. Recent workout information has him doing rather poorly at Churchill Downs...if you like him, watch the next few days to see if he regains his energy.

CHOCOLATE CANDY has been victimized twice by PIONEEROF THE NILE (G.1 SA Derby, G.1 CashCall Futurity). He went up north to gain winning confidence, which he did in capturing the California Derby and G.3 El Camino Real. After a freshening, he was unable to run down his arch rival in the G.1 SA Derby but was a closing 2^nd that suggested he'd see every bit of the 1 ¼ mile Kentucky Derby distance. However, coming from the back of the pack and running wide on the turn, will be two excuses should he run poorly. First off, if he breaks as tardily to race at the back of the field, he sure had better want to eat some dirt (something most synthetic-reared runners have been loath to do). Second, he makes his sustained, sweeping move leaving the far turn which could make him some 8-10 horses wide coming into the lane. That will result in his being shuffled back for 1/16 mile until the field straigtens for the stretch run. Is he of strong enough constitution to overcome these obstacles?

At what price does CHOCOLATE CANDY become a viable "win" play? His papa, CANDY RIDE, was a freak on the dirt the only time he tried it; he blazed to a G.1 Pacific Classic win. The switch to a fast dirt track may produce the same awakening in CHOCOLATE CANDY.

From Dubai comes DESERT PARTY, a son of STREET CRY who was campaigned by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum in the navy blue silks of his GODOLPHIN STABLES. So envious was the Shiekh after the '07 Derby win by STREET SENSE (also by STREET CRY) that he purchased him from James Tafel and retired him to the Breeding shed.

While DESERT PARTY didn't win the G.2 UAE Derby, I believe that he stands a better chance at staying the 1 ¼ miles of the Kentucky Derby than his front-running stablemate REGAL RANSOM even with the defection of QUALITY ROAD. I heard from ALAN BENOWITZ of THORO-GRAPH sheets on JASON LEVIN's INSIDE RACING radio program, that REGAL RANSOM had gotten back to his 2y.o. top figure (2 ½) in the UAE Derby. With the winning margin just ½ length, that would put DESERT PARTY at a nice developmental pattern with around a "3" after running a then-new top of 6 and a paired 5 in his two prior '09 races. By comparison, Benowitz stated that I WANT REVENGE regressed to a 3 in his troubled Wood Memorial win after running a zero in the Gotham. The Dubai road will eventually produce a Derby winner, so would around 20-1 be fair odds to take a swing?

Lastly, SQUARE EDDIE's chances have been enhanced by the scratch of QUALITY ROAD. He doesn't need to be as far back as he was in the G.2 Lexington...in fact I envision, depending on his post position, a stalking trip in 2^nd or 3^rd just like he ran in the BC Juvenile. He really impressed me that day. Usually foreign horses regress big time 2^nd out in the U.S., particulary when shipped from different time zones. Yet this colt ran fast and was game to hold 2^nd on a day I wouldn't have held that against him. His shins were probably already sore but undetected when he was 2^nd in the G.3 San Rafael. Last out, prepping on the Polytrack considering his eventful trip was like running 1 1/8 miles on dirt. His wind should be good considering the works and race along with the underwater treadmill preparation he's been getting. The slower fractions without QUALITY ROAD will allow him to gallop and conserve his energy for the first mile, then he'll make that turn move that wins so many Kentucky Derby renewals. I'll want somewhere in the 25-1 range to take a swing. That's highly possible in this field...he sits at 30-1 on the TBA "unofficial" odds line.

However you enjoy this Kentucky Derby, please understand what a talented group this is. There are many entrants I didn't cover that could surprise me. In fact, GENERAL QUARTERS and MUSKET MAN have several times. I'll take the eight that I've featured into battle against the other 12.

Good luck.

2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:37:00 GMT

Courtesy of Rob Fundter, The Amateur Capper

An Embarrassment of Riches: Part 1

Great horses, Kentucky Derby winners in this case, possess the ability to adapt to different circumstances and win. This year's Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands 3y.o. crop, thanks to the absence of Mare Reproductive Loss Syndrome, has quality that we haven't seen in years. There is more than one contender deserving of the adjective "legitimate" which will make selecting a winner on May 2 a challenging prospect.

At the top of the heap, in order of ultimate prep race dates, are FRIESAN FIRE, QUALITY ROAD, I WANT REVENGE, and PIONEEROF THE NILE. Each of these colts has risen above the race circumstances to win their final prep race. In fact, they will go into the Derby with at least two straight graded stakes wins.

FRIESAN FIRE was first in the Kentucky Derby clubhouse. His Louisiana Derby (G.2) win on March 14 completed a sweep of the graded stakes program at Fair Grounds that included the Risen Star (G.3) February 7 and the Lecomte (G.3) January 10. The Lecomte win was his second in blinkers which seems to have brought out the potential that his breeding suggested. His first two graded stakes wins featured a Larry Jones trainee that got the lead into the stretch and increased the margin from the stretch call to the wire. However, the Louisiana Derby was his definitive race this winter. The son of 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. INDY sailed home 7 ¼ lengths best over a sloppy Fair Grounds main track. While the surface was an excuse for well-bet also-rans PATENA and FLYING PEGASUS, FRIESAN FIRE got his final 2 ½ furlongs in :30.02. That fraction was 5 lengths better than the come-home time he earned in the Risen Star win. The result of the Louisiana Derby was flattered by PAPA CLEM's win in the G.2 Arkansas Derby April 11. Third place TERRAIN finished 4^th in the Blue Grass (G.1) while fourth place GIANT OAK ran 2^nd in the Illinois Derby (G.2). All three are expected to be part of the 20 horse cavalry charge on Derby day. LARRY JONES has a live shot with FRIESAN FIRE to improve on his two consecutive runner-up finishes (HARD SPUN in '07, EIGHT BELLES last year).

QUALITY ROAD answered the two-turn question with an emphatic Florida Derby (G.1) win March 28. The son of ELUSIVE QUALITY, sire of 2004 Derby winner SMARTY JONES, confirmed to his doubters that his Fountain of Youth win was no fluke. He sits at or near the top of many Kentucky Derby contender lists. What sets QUALITY ROAD apart from the others in this discourse is his speed, agility, and respiratory capacity all rolled into a massive 17 hands package. In the Gulfstream Park signature prep race, JOHN VELAZQUEZ extricated his steed from the rail before traffic engulfed them into the first turn. The JIM JERKENS trainee tracked a fast pace, cruised effortlessly to the lead on the far turn, and idled awaiting his rider's instructions. While Velazquez searched for DUNKIRK, GARRETT GOMEZ launched his mount on a winning sneak attack some four or five wide. Velazquez realized his mistake and frantically asked QUALITY ROAD for his best. His colt responded like champions do, quickening at the top of the stretch to match DUNKIRK's momentum, then outran his foe to the wire with a solid :12.44 final furlong en route to a track record. With THE PAMPLEMOUSSE and OLD FASHIONED out of the picture due to injury, UAE Derby (G.2) winner REGAL RANSOM will be QUALITY ROAD's pace foil. Nothing comes easy in the Kentucky Derby, that's why it's such a special feat and a race that crowns champions.

I WANT REVENGE authored the most eventful Derby prep of the year when he won the Wood Memorial (G.1) on April 4 in dramatic fashion. The son of STEPHEN GOT EVEN put the hearts of DAVID LANZMAN, IEAH, and JEFF MULLINS into their stomachs when he got left at the gate. JOE TALAMO recounted that his mount was startled when a neighboring starter rammed the gate just prior to the bell. The young rider showed the composure of a 20 year veteran, allowing I WANT REVENGE to find his best stride. He picked off the back markers with successively faster ¼ mile splits but ran into a roadblock coming off the turn. So special is this colt that Talamo was able to dial down to a simmer despite being ready to boil. Showing that luck is needed even when you're 10 lengths best, I WANT REVENGE was fortuitously bounced out to the four path while trying to find running room. He shot through a seam and was gone in a blink. Realistically it took him :11.96, the fastest 9f final 1/8 of the prep season...FROM A STANDSTILL! Don't be surprised if he's the starting favorite...he's already seen just about everything bad that can happen and overcame it all.

Last but certainly not least is PIONEEROF THE NILE, twice the conqueror of I WANT REVENGE. The BOB BAFFERT trainee is on a four race win streak that includes the Hollywood Futurity (G.1) on Cushion Track, widely considered the synthetic track most like dirt. Who can argue with the success of I WANT REVENGE at Aqueduct. PIONEEROF THE NILE has gotten no love in my sample polls. When asked which contenders were the most likely Triple Crown Winners, the son of EMPIRE MAKER got a measly 5 votes while QUALITY ROAD led the lot at 17. FRIESAN FIRE, THE PAMPLEMOUSSE, and I WANT REVENGE tied for second at 11 tallies. All PIONEEROF THE NILE does is win, any way his rider pleases. His San Felipe (G.2) win has proved a key prep, with I WANT REVENGE emerging as the New York kingpin and PAPA CLEM winning the Arkansas Derby. His final 1/16 in the San Felipe was the fastest final fraction of the '09 preps at 8 ½ furlongs. That day he made two distinct moves. The first was matching the second ¼ fraction of the leader (:23.83) after a personal opening fraction of :24.68. He idled to :24.47 when the pace of the race slowed markedly (:25.07) to the 6f mark, but accelerated again with a :23.41 fraction to the mile mark while racing wide on the final turn. His subsequent races showed his ability to adapt against slow fractions. GARRETT GOMEZ allowed him to press the leader on the backside in both the San Felipe and last out in the Santa Anita Derby. The tandem even got the lead at the ½ mile mark last out instead of allowing his outclassed competition to put them into a precarious position. Don't sleep on PIONEEROF THE NILE...he may send your Derby wagers up the river without a paddle.

Enjoy the next few weeks.

The Connections of Off-Pace Derby Contenders Must Be Smilin'

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 12:55:00 GMT

By Rob Fundter, AMATEURCAPPER

On the heels of REGAL RANSOM upsetting DESERT PARTY in the UAE Derby, QUALITY ROAD won the Florida Derby which will assure an honest pace in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. The two early pace winners could join THE PAMPLEMOUSSE, OLD FASHIONED, and perhaps PAPA CLEM at the head of an honest, contested pace scenario.

Our TBA site is filled with QUALITY ROAD posts from ASPIRING HORSEPLAYER, JEN'S THOROUGHBLOG, CHALK EATING WEASEL, and THOROUGHBRED ZONE. I was a QUALITY ROAD fan before the race and I'm still on the bandwagon. But DUNKIRK was excellent in defeat and has earned my respect.

The connections of PIONEEROF THE NILE, FRIESAN FIRE, and I WANT REVENGE, the 2-3-7 ranked horses on the Derby earnings list, will appreciate the multiple targets to run at the final 1/8. Ditto for DESERT PARTY.

Those of you who adore DUNKIRK...don't lose hope. #1 earner prior to this weekend SQUARE EDDIE still hasn't run after suffering shin splints/stress fractures. # 4 VINEYARD HAVEN, nowhere to be found after he was throttled by DESERT PARTY and REGAL RANSOM in a UAE Derby prep. #13 MUSKET MAN, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and #16 WIN WILLY, the Rebel S. winner, aren't nominated to the Triple Crown yet. #18 CHARITABLE MAN hasn't started this year (but he's been working every 6-7 days since Feb. 13) and it remains to be seen what condition he'll be in if/when he starts prior to the Derby.

That's five outs to use a poker term...not including TODD PLETCHER's "ace in the hole" BITTEL ROAD, who disappointed in the Lane's End last weekend. He sat at #12 prior to today's races. I'm sure the Coolmore boys would make it worth the while of Scatuorchio & Iracane to scratch the turf horse (hush, hush, wink, wink).

In 2007, CURLIN earned my respect when he ran on for 3^rd after an atrocious trip from the two hole in the Kentucky Derby won by STREET SENSE. He justified my perception when he captured a stunning Preakness over the Derby winner. DUNKIRK has done the same.

DUNKIRK is a very, very, VERY good colt. He's improved leaps and bounds this spring and the five weeks off before the Kentucky Derby is made to order after such a hard race. The son of UNBRIDLED'S SONG made a wide/winning move coming off the turn in the Florida Derby and stayed on very gamely. However, he got victimized Saturday by a enormous/speedy/classy colt in QUALITY ROAD on a speed-favoring Gulfstream Park main track. I knew going into the day DUNKIRK had his work cut out trying to run down the more experienced Fountain of Youth winner, 113 Beyer figure notwithstanding. When BIG DRAMA won (but was DQ'd) the Swale S. in track record time, DUNKIRK was going to have to be SECRETARIAT to win. Okay, so he's not the second coming but can anyone argue that he's not destined to win multiple graded stakes races before going off to stud?

I guarantee you that Pletcher is fielding calls from top jockey agents around the country to get on DUNKIRK should GARRETT GOMEZ choose PIONEEROF THE NILE. Those same same agents are calling BOB BAFFERT to get on PIONEEROF THE NILE should DUNKIRK get in and GOMEZ goes with dirt vs synthetic preps.

So you're GARRETT GOMEZ, who do you choose? Both BAFFERT and PLETCHER feel they have colts deserving of being a Derby winner. They both use GOMEZ on many top horses. Choosing one colt over the other will surely put him in the other's dog house. Next week's Santa Anita Derby will give GOMEZ more information to make perhaps the most important decision in his life.