Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance : alan mann

Must Win for Curlin

cdawahare — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 10:06:00 GMT

By Alan Mann, Left at the Gate

I know that Patrick would like to see Curlin disappear. That seems like wishful thinking to me. I believe that Curlin will win the Classic. Actually, he has to win. Forget the Euro horses just for a moment....and this is a field that the champ should handle without too much of a problem in my opinion. I say that even though five of those runners are Grade 1 stakes winners, and despite my belief that the defending Horse of the Year is not quite as dominant as he was before he went to Dubai. (And I'm still a bit bugged out over how slow he finished in the Woodward.)

Nonetheless, if Curlin runs poorly against the US entries at least, it could only be because he doesn't handle the Pro-Ride. Go Between was a Grade 2 turf horse at best before discovering synthetics in California; and even there, he hasn't run that fast. Tiago closed very well in the Goodwood, but has a record of 4-0-0-0 at this distance. Besides, he's out because I picked him in the Classic last year and have a rule about losing with the same horse two years in a row. Student Council had his biggest win on the Poly at Del Mar, but I get the feeling he prefers the real stuff. Colonel John came home in 25 4/5 to win the Travers over Mambo in Seattle, who was outclassed by the champ in the JCGC. And Casino Drive? The thought of a horse with his lack of experience standing in the winner's circle for the Classic is kinda like....well, you know.

Nothing really good would come out of Curlin getting beat by these (though you may disagree if you're amongst those dead set against synthetic tracks). It could cast doubt upon the results of other races and would turn full attention to the decision to run at Santa Anita again next year, a potentially rancorous discussion that would go on for many months. And it would be an ugly mark on a set of past performance lines that currently read like a work of art.

Now, as far as those Euro invaders go, I believe that it would seem more acceptable should Curlin run well and lose to one of those, laden with class as they are. However, all three face what I see as big question marks even aside from the surface issue and the unfamiliar style and surroundings. I don't like Duke of Marmalade, who ran less than three weeks ago in the Arc, his sixth Grade 1 in less than five months, and his first loss of the year. Raven's Pass (Elusive Quality) has had an extra week of rest, and actually seems to be thriving and improving with the steady work - seven races since April 17. He finally defeated Henrythenavigator in his last after failing to do so the prior three times they met. Neither of those have been more than a mile however. This is a major stretchout at any level, especially so here, and even for horses who are bred to go on. Based on their dosage and Tomlinson numbers at least, Henrythenavigator is more likely to stay. He's by Kingmambo, out of a stakes winning mare by Sadlers Wells. However, the dam got that stakes win in a sprint, as has her full sisters Listen and Sequoyah; and Henrythenavigator's full sister Queen Cleopatra was a stakes winner at a mile. So I don't think it's certain by any means that he'll negotiate the distance based on his breeding, though I consider him to be the most likely winner of the three.

And then there is, of course, the fact that the Euros will be racing on something other than turf for the first time. For Curlin, Pro-Ride is also a strange surface. But the champ has already shown the versatility to run second in a Grade 1 race in his first (and only) race on turf, a surface which he didn't seem to relish at all.

Picks: Curlin, Henrythenavigator, Tiago

- Well worth reading is a somewhat different, and far more close-up view of the European horses from Gary West in his West Points blog.

Sprint Looks Like Inside Job

cdawahare — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:57:00 GMT

By Alan Mann, Left at the Gate

At least the field sizes are fairly manageable on Saturday; just nine go in the Sprint. I'm not proud, I'll take any break I can get. In post position order, with the top contenders all lined up inside:

Cost of Freedom has run huge in two races since being claimed by trainer John Sadler. You could have doubted his allowance win off the claim against a mediocre field. But I guess not many did, because he was 5-1 in the G1 Ancient Title. This five-year old son of Cee's Tizzy was four wide throughout the final turn, and was moving pretty easily with Tyler Baze as he circled the field on his way to holding off the mighty Street Boss. He's working very well, and the Form's clocker Mike Welsch wrote that he seems to be maintaining his vastly improved form. He has plenty enough tactical speed to avoid getting buried from the rail post.

Street Boss has developed into one of the sport's most consistent and exciting runners this year with his patented wide late rally, though he's toiled in the relative anonymity of the Southern California sprint division . He'd won five in a row before losing to Cost of Freedom, which probably would not have happened had he not blown the turn. While the relatively short field means that the pace may not be as frenzied as he'd prefer, it lessens the chance he'll have traffic trouble or have to go unmanageably wide. This son of Street Cry earned his career best Beyer in losing the Ancient Title; and note that he improved eight Beyer points in the Crosby, which was his second race off a two month freshening like the one he enjoyed before the Ancient Title.

Fabulous Strike caught a break when J Be K scratched and another when he drew inside of Black Seventeen. Speedy five year old son of Smart Strike has only raced twice this year, and has yet to achieve the astronomical Beyers he did the two years prior. He was pressed hard while on the rail in the slop of the Vosburgh, and tired to a final furlong in 13.23. He's had just one work since then, in which he also tired, at least according to Welsch. So I'm wondering if that race took something out of him. Still, he has the best Moss pace figures in the field, and they may have him to catch in his first effort on a synthetic track.

Midnight Lute is certainly a ponderous entry here. We all recall his amazing rally to win last year's Sprint in the slop at Monmouth; as well as the 124 Speed Figure he earned in the Forego. But physical problems have limited the son of Real Quiet to a single start, and that was more of a non-performance in which he was well back throughout. He suffered a quarter crack for which he was still being treated over the weekend. But I’m told by a reader that his 10/13 workout, five furlongs in 56 4/5, was touted by one veteran clocker as being in the all-time top five from his 25 years in the business. And Welsch reported on Monday that he looked none the worse for wear. Still, you gotta take a stand sometimes, and I'm taking one against him here.

I think the winner is likely to come from this group (actually, as it turns out, from the inside pair), so running down the rest: First Defence is a possibility I suppose off his win in the Forego. That race pretty much fell apart though, and it was at a seven furlong distance he prefers on a racetrack he relishes. First try on synthetic here too. Black Seventeen surprised at 23-1 in the Vosburgh, which I'm going to attribute to the slop that day. He does have good early speed according to his Moss numbers though, and I'm expecting (hoping...) that he'll give Fabulous Strike some trouble early; I don't know who else can, really. ~~In Summation~~ has not been quite the same since returning from a winter/spring vacation. He only finished a length behind Street Boss in the Crosby, so he's not impossible. But I think he'll need everything to go his way.

Sing Baby Sing is as consistent as they come, but seems a cut below on class and speed. Fatal Bullet has a horridly awful name - just dreadful. I hope he loses. He's been almost unbeatable on three different synthetic surfaces and comes off a career best Beyer of 108; but his Moss numbers don't match up with either of the two horses I’ve identified above as the speed. Figures to be caught wide if he’s trying to stalk, and here’s hoping he fades in the stretch.

Picks: Street Boss, Cost of Freedom, In Summation

No change in my thoughts on the Dirt Mile after the post position draw, nor due to the presence of Mast Track and Pyro. Mast Track will be running with what Frankel describes as a “tiny” quarter crack. Tell me, what again is the symbol in the program or Form for that? You know, to keep the betting public fully informed. QC? A little image of Big Brown? A picture of Frankel’s face with a Liberty Bell crack down the center? Surely there must be something, right?

A couple of horses of interest to me in other races drew poorly: Whatsthescript, yet another Cal-based horse which has moved way up off a trainer change (and, like Cost of Freedom, now with Sadler), drew the outside 11 post in the Mile. And Pure Clan, a three-year old IEAH filly with a world of upside in my opinion, will break from the ten hole in the F&M Turf.

The Dirt on the (Dirt) Mile

Blood-Horse Staff — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:44:00 GMT

- by Alan Mann

I figure that at this point, it's time to just concentrate on the races. We've discussed the many questions surrounding this year's Breeders' Cup to death. Yes, it's the first synthetic Breeders' Cup, but, as I've noted on my blog Left at the Gate, it's certainly not the first one tinged with doubts that cut to the very legitimacy of its status as World Championship races. And though, in my opinion, the Breeders' Cup can't possibly be bashed enough over the pointless renaming of the Distaff and, especially, the absurd scheduling of championship races on a day and time when only the truly committed will even make an attempt to watch, I suppose it’s time to move on and do some gambling.

Lost in all of this however is the exacerbation of what I've always considered to be the biggest drawback of the whole concept of the Breeders' Cup - the fact that there's too much on one day for the mainstream press, and thus, the general public to digest. Other than the Classic and perhaps another race or two of particular import, the culmination of an entire year's worth of divisional races are inevitably reduced to a footnote at the bottom of a newspaper or web page. This year, we're up to nine races on Saturday; and add to that numerical dilution the fact that four of Saturday’s races are relatively minor events that should not be grouped with the main events.

14 races in all, and I gotta tell ya, it's too much for me too. Consider how long one can obsess over a single race - say, the Kentucky Derby - and that many Breeders' Cup races have significantly more angles and nuance to ponder. Perhaps if I was doing this full-time as a paid gig, I’d have the time, but….

So, I'm going to try to keep it as simple as possible. For one thing, when I printed out the past performances for Saturday's card, I started with Race 3. I don't particularly care for mile and a half marathons or turf sprints under any circumstances. Seriously man, drop me a note next week and let me know who won these two totally superfluous and unnecessary additions to the menu. Secondly, I intend to concentrate on the races which I can actually handicap with the usual basics of class, pace, and speed (and perhaps even tote), rather than to guess (other than to the extent we all will be regarding the Pro-Ride surface) about horses stretching out for the first time, going grass to "dirt” (or vice-versa), or Racing Post Ratings and the bereft European past performance lines that accompany them. So, to start at least for now, I'm also putting aside all four juvenile races as well as the Mile and the Turf. Come race day, the tote board will be my guide to finding value in those. But, as far as serious handicapping goes, I'm now down to a more manageable six, and there's potentially plenty to be made (or lost) in those. Of course, to each his/her own, but this is how I’m approaching the event.

The Dirt Mile may be the most eminently handicapable race on the program, so let's start there, and take a look at those that I consider to be the contenders. With Colonel John poised to represent WinStar and trainer Eoin Harty in the Classic, Well Armed is set for what serves for many horses as the Classic-for-the-Distance-Challenged event. Having lost by a mere neck to Go Between in the mile and a quarter Pacific Classic, we can't say that about this gelded five-year old son of Tiznow; but this two-turn mile event should suit him fine as well. He's refined his game of late, showing the ability to rate in his last two efforts, and comes off a workmanlike, though not dominant, win in the Goodwood. He has the speed figs, the tactical diversity, and the experience over the track to be the clear horse to beat. (And he worked a half in 46 1/5 on Monday.)

Lewis Michael has raced only twice this year due to an ankle problem, but seems to be coming up to the Dirt Mile in fine fettle for trainer Wayne (38%) Catalano. This son of Rahy seemed to really blossom at age four last year, at least until he ran into the Monmouth muck and mire which we definitely won't be seeing this year. He's shown the ability to handle various surfaces and distances. He stretches to two turns off his perfect-trip win in the seven furlong Pat O'Brien, a pattern which resulted in his dominant Washington Park Handicap win last year. You can watch his most recent workout here - seven furlongs in 1:25.60 at Keeneland. Definitely a contender, though I am concerned about his light schedule, and believe he may be overbet.

Albertus Maximus is one of several California-based horses on the Breeders' Cup program that we've seen undergo a dramatic uptick in form after a change of barns - he switched to trainer Vladimir Cerin from Gary Mandella over the summer, and has put in two excellent efforts since. Most recent was a third, beaten less than two lengths, to Well Armed in the Goodwood, a race in which he conceded a good three paths to the winner turning for home. Other than Tiago, this four-year old son of Albert the Great closed fastest of all despite the lost ground, earned a career high Beyer, and looks like a live one at what could be a square price.

Slew's Tizzy is another one who has turned things around for a new barn; Doug O’Neill took over training duties over the winter, and the four-year old son of Tiznow responded with a sharp second in an excellent allowance race which also featured next out stakes winner Giant Gizmo, the consistent graded stakes runner Tropic Storm, and graded stakes winning Warning Zone. After seven months off, he returned with a front-running allowance win, at a mile, over the Pro-Ride last month. He set a slow pace that day, and is unlikely to be afforded that luxury here; and it concerns me that the Turf Sprint was his first choice. But his recent sharp form is worth mentioning. Full brother Slew’s Tiznow is also slated to start. O’Neill took over this one from Patrick Biancone, and gee, isn’t Biancone about to once again grace the game with his presence? Jeez, we get rid of steroids, and now pick up thisssssssss.

Two Step Salsa returns to synthetic land after an unsuccessful journey out east, and could find himself in front with a good post draw. He has superior Moss Pace numbers even to Well Armed when that one was running on the lead. However, he could find himself being hounded by My Pal Charlie, who is a bit interesting coming off his Super Derby win. Three-year old son of Indian Charlie earned a career best Beyer that day, but benefited from a perfect inside trip (despite having to wait momentarily for room), and he’s never been on synthetics. But he does have some of the best pace numbers in the field, and could also be a factor early should he handle the surface.

In conclusion (and I’ll revisit the race after the post draw): Albertus Maximus is on the improve and has an excellent race over the track. Well Armed has speed, stamina, and consistency, and looms strictly the one to beat. Slew’s Tizzy has improved dramatically and has won at the distance over the track. Lewis Michael could blow these away in the stretch if he runs back to peak form from last year.