Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 23:15:08 GMT

Carlos in Cali,

After ESKY was scratched, I think anything around 17-1 is a pipe dream...more like 10-1 range. Is that enough?

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 23:12:38 GMT

BKYG,

I'm afraid that work aroused too much suspicion or anticipation that ICE BOX will run big. He looks like a wise guy sort right now. With ESKENDEREYA scratched, look for him around the 10-1 range, perhaps even lower considering the positive race flow.

Good luck.

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Tue, 27 Apr 2010 23:08:53 GMT

Slew,

At least you know now "What's in the 'BOX?"

I've also heard MI is doing well and I'll consider him under my top choices.

What do you think about ESKENDEREYA's scratch? Check out my last post about him if you have the chance (amateurcapper.blogspot.com/.../kentucky-derby-notebook-eskendereya-out.html).

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Carlos in Cali — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 17:09:28 GMT

Amateurcapper

Ssshhh...let's try and keep Icee's odds at around 17-1 or better. :)

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

BKYG — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 21:23:51 GMT

Since I am pretty sure it is going to be a sloppy track I think a lot of people will miss the mark by not betting on Ice Box, but that will work in my favor. He seemed to have no problem whatsoever on his practice in the slop. I firmly believe he has a shot.

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Slew — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 11:40:37 GMT

So as I eat my words...Ice Box had the best work, the best stride, and looked as though he was floating on air in his work in the slop. Something new to consider every day. Second best work..to my surprise..Mission Impazible. Esky should be working today, but big storms are tearing through the Eastern half of the nation with killer tornadoes ripping up everything in sight. We'll se how today goes in Kentucky.

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 19:01:47 GMT

@ SLEW,

I've been remiss in responding...STATELY VICTOR certainly won in a regal manner befitting his name.

If you read this, check out my latest post...on ENDORSEMENT.

LOOKIN AT LUCKY blazed big time in his work...1:12! Looked great to me.

Finally, did you catch that ICE BOX work today in the slop? :46 2/5!!! This dude's gonna run huge in the Derby!

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 18:58:15 GMT

@ John T,

Sorry so long to get back.

I am with you on 'LUCKY...but from a SoCal perspective. I've seen him in person twice...this dude is professional and looks outstanding! Did you catch that 1:12 work?

ESKENDEREYA seems to be #1 or #2 on everyone's list...except mine.

Love your pick of AWESOME ACT...he was loaded to fly past ESKY but losing the shoe made a huge difference. Sire won BC Classic, distance no problem.

Good luck!

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Slew — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 12:42:04 GMT

Endorsement in name and breeding. I think he'll be in the money. I actually really liked Stately Victor's run in the Blue Grass. He stayed under cover, and then burst through to the front with plenty left in the tank. His odds will be good because no one else is really giving him credit because of his pp's. I've been looking for the horse that can easily get 12f..and these two are the only ones I believe have that stamina. I think many other contenders will have a difficult time just getting the 10f. While I had high hopes for Lookin At Lucky...he has had so many bad trips, I have to wonder what will happen in a 20-horse field. But in reality, only one horse has "wowed" me (I was waiting for that one) and it was Stately Victor. The Florida, Louisiana, and the wood told me next to nothing. I find Sidney's Candy impressive, in a sort of "He-man of the Universe" way..very muscled, and exceptionally strong.

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

John T — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 23:50:39 GMT

Hi Amateurcapper

Yes I am eyeing more than one horse in the Kentucky Derby.As I have been living in Canada for 40 years I am a big fan of the Canadian-Bred Smart Strike and would like nothing better than lookin At Lucky to avenge the defeat of Curlin.

On evidence I have seen so far though Eskendereya has been very convincing in his last two starts

and is by a sire who is showing a lot of promise,Giant,s Causeway.The third horse I like is

Awesome Act,who is also by a Candian-bred sire Awesome Again who

won our Queen,s Plate at Woodbine before going on to win the Breeders Cup Classic.Awesome Act lost a shoe in the Wood but still ran a creditable race to finish third and I think he has a good chance to make the board in the Derby at a very good price.

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 07:11:14 GMT

@ SLEW,

Everyone has to find a reason not to like most of the horses...if the name thing works for you, go with it! STATELY VICTOR does have a regal sound. Are there any others with acceptable names for a Derby winner?

Thanks for commenting...good luck!

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 07:03:51 GMT

@ Pedigree Shelly,

I mentioned that breeding and also pointed out 3rd dam BELLE DE JOUR produced 1985 Kentucky Derby winner SPEND A BUCK...spending a few bucks on ICE BOX is worthwhile, no?

Good luck!

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 07:00:59 GMT

@ Jeff M,

Thanks for stopping by.

I've become a fan of DUBLIN, just not for the Derby. I believe he's not right...he hasn't gone by a tired pacesetter on two occasions (Southwest and Arkansas Derby) when it looked like he'd win by open lengths.

My theory is that he's not right after a bad stumble in the Southwest. I also feel he's a turf horse classy enough to run well in top company on dirt.

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 06:57:46 GMT

@ John T,

If my comparison to SUMMER BIRD is correct, then you may also be on to something. ICE BOX will certainly be a longshot to win on Derby day...he doesn't have the body of work that the favorites bring. He may finish 3rd, 4th or 5th, skip the Preakness, then be the Belmont wise-guy. Certainly a plausible scenario.

So, who's your Derby horse? Are you eying more than one?

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Slew — Sat, 17 Apr 2010 08:33:46 GMT

Even if he was the best horse in the world (which he is not) I just can't bring myself to root for a Derby winner with a name like "Ice Box". Bring it home Stately Victor! (much better name)

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Pedigree Shelly — Sat, 17 Apr 2010 01:41:08 GMT

Ice Box is my pick for the Derby ! For sentimental reasons , I've always loved his sire Pulpit! I followed him from his maiden win as a three year old at Gulfstream , 7f in 1 21 and change to his gallant forth place finish in the

derby in which he sustained a career ending injury . As a sire he has been excellent also he is a sire of sires ! Ice Box has a great pedigree foundation! to be a formidable choice in this years Derby . His grandsire AP Indy won the Belmont and BC Classic ,His dam's sire Tabasco Cat won the Preakness and Belmont

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

JEFF M — Sat, 17 Apr 2010 00:44:53 GMT

PEOPLE ARE FORGETTING DUBLIN.LUKAS HAS SAID FROM THE BEGINNING THIS WAS HIS DERBY HORSE.HE HAD THE SAME SURGERY AS ALYSHEBA,HE WILL BE IN THE 3RD TIER OF HORSES TAKING THE LEAD AT THE TOP OF THE STRETCH,HES BEEN TOO CLOSE IN HIS PREP RACES,IF HE DUPLICATES THE RACE WITH CONVEYANCE WITH SOME PACE HES A LOCK,I LIKE ICE BOX TOO...2 HALL OF FAME TRAINERS........

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

John T — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 21:55:17 GMT

If Ice Box is to win any of the Triple Crown races then I think it would be the Belmont and Zito certainly knows how to get a horse ready for that race.

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 16:53:22 GMT

@ EL FANFARON,

And I thought I dug deep...where is ROUGH SHOD II in his pedigree? Outstanding research.

I agree that to expect another forward move for the Derby is a stretch. Historically, the sheets players suggest that top figures needed to be earned in advance and run back to on Derby day. My point about the 6 weeks is that it should be enough time for ICE BOX to repeat the effort.

RULE is a stretch to hit the board...he hasn't rated a bit in his preps and faces the likes of LINE OF DAVID and CONVEYANCE who need the lead as well. Toss in SIDNEY'S CANDY who's always been on or pressing and SUPER SAVER who Pletcher says is the most unratable of the bunch and the pace figures fast and contentious. RULE's nice, but IMHO more of a middle distance horse at best.

Who is your Derby horse? Are there more than RULE you're considering?

Thanks for checking in!

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 16:42:31 GMT

@ Driftin Sage,

To win the Derby without a juvenile campaign may or may not have done in CURLIN. That said, ICE BOX had some furlongs, just over 29 furlongs, for education but it took until Oct. 30 to break maiden...and that was at Meadowlands. He's a bona fide late bloomer still with things to learn (didn't change leads in Fl. Derby). That fractional power indicates he's a serious race horse who will get better from this point forward. Can he bounce? Sure. At 20-1 or more, there has to be some blemishes you're willing to overlook.

Good luck.

Is there any other that caught your eye?

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 16:35:46 GMT

@ RACHEL,

Tough to really LOVE a horse two plus out...keep open mind as two top contenders were lost the final weeks.

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 16:34:32 GMT

@ Paseana,

Thanks for the kind words and great memory of your namesake...she was a thing of beauty around here. Considering the connections (Craig family), is SIDNEY'S CANDY your Derby horse?

ICE BOX is out of most people's minds because he last raced March 20 and not on NBC. Certainly a deserving entrant and live longshot.

Who's your top pick?

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 16:29:54 GMT

@ Freetex,

Thanks for taking the time and commenting...kind words.

I agree...more tactical runners can surely steal away at the mile while he's winding up. The pace will be key. Many factors make finding the Derby winner so tough. ICE BOX has show himself to have uncommon stamina...as AL BINHO noted, he's only put it together big time ONCE. Can he repeat it? Is 20-1 or more fair odds?

My top pick all along has been LOOKIN AT LUCKY who is battle tested, to say the least. The blinkers off I've read of late is a curious, eleventh hour equipment change before a huge race. Last week he worked a mile in 1:38...an amazing move that gave him more fitness for the 10f after his eventful SA Derby.

Your Derby pick?

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 16:24:25 GMT

@ Al Binho,

I watched the replay again and you are right, he was dog tired. Also noted that he didn't change leads, on the left the entire way. Lezcano didn't ask him to because he was finishing so fast. Six weeks rest should have him primed to at least repeat this win (look at what ESKENDEREYA did w/ 6 weeks after a huge FOY effort) and I'm confident that Zito has worked on the switching leads thing the last three weeks.

PLEASANT PRINCE was more a victim of only three weeks after his huge effort. Not enough recovery = dull run.

Back to ICE BOX...he's not my #1, but a very viable longshot with the breeding and past performances to see all of the 1 1/4 miles.

Thanks for reading and taking the time to weigh in w/ your opinion.

re: Kentucky Derby Notebook: Contender Profile - Ice Box

Amateurcapper — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 16:15:47 GMT

@ Roy Darby,

I think the pace will be something like :46 and change (if both LINE OF DAVID and CONVEYANCE start and SID presses/stalks), 1:10 change, mile in 1:35 change. Racehorse time. Final time 2:01.

Second part...fractions in both wins indicate he'll rate, but he did it alone on the lead. What happens when the crowd is roaring, 20 horses jump simultaneously, at least two others are as fast as him early??? Don't feel surface is as big an issue with him, but it's still unknown on paper. A noted handicapper in SoCal, after the SA Derby, answered that SID's still unknown at a relatively short price (close 3rd choice?) after I posed to him that SID could rate considering his fractions. Most of the above questions came from him.

I hope you're "lucky" finding the winner :-)!