Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

JOE — Sun, 25 Apr 2010 17:36:45 GMT

Citation,

I said that he would not run in the derby and see he is not running. Eskendereya is a one mile to one mile and a eighth if he runs again. He has no late kick. There are only two horses for the derby Mission Impazible first and Lookin at Lucky second as of April 25th 2010.

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

Jim P — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 18:24:53 GMT

As a "long" shot I like Sidney's Candy. I'm a big believer in Candy Ride with a World Record mile, the world's highest Beyer in 2003, unbeaten on both turf and dirt, a Pacific Classic that looked like he might have gone on easily beyond the Derby distance, & great intelligence and mental attitudes.

Sidney's Candy has some of his same mental characteristics & is likely to rate better than one might think. One concern might be the power of his break; like Candy Ride he seems to stumble at the start. That's a bigger problem in a 20 horse field.

It's not like Storm Cat, his broodmare sire, never got a classic horse -- Giant's Causeway won the BC Classic as did Cat Thief. Tobasco Cat won the Preakness and the Belmont. Bluegrass Cat ran 2nd in the Derby. Good Reward ran 2nd in the Pacific Classic. Seeking the Dia won over $5 million running in Japan's Classics. Sardula won the Kentucky Oaks. Life Is Sweet, Sharp Cat, and Sweetcatomin, and Storm Flag Flying did OK for themselves.

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

suebroux — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 13:14:19 GMT

History is certainly indicative that the Derby favorite is not necessarily the eventual winner. And one also needs to consider that there has been evolution in racing preps: lightly raced horses that are bred for speed versus distance, racing on synthetic surfaces, etc. I remember a few years ago attending a some handicapping seminar and the "must" checklist: race as 2-year-old, at least Beyers over 105, routing experience ... or something to that effect. Giacomo won that year!

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

Citation — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 12:57:29 GMT

Matthew W, I don't think Honest Pleasure could have beaten Bold Forbes anyway. Still, the distance may have been a bit too far for Honest Pleasure. Bold Forbes is such an underrated horse, somehow he still gets called a sprinter despite winning the Derby and the Belmont.

Joe, Eskendereya has a pedigree that is well-suited for a mile and a quarter. Can you explain what element of his pedigree makes you say he cannot get the distance?

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

A Grimm — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 04:28:22 GMT

I am a fan. I enjoy watching the prep races, but I have never bet on a race in my life. From what I have seen (I am no expert on any of this), Eskendereya has had his way in the preps he won. Lookin' At Lucky and Sidney's Candy have fought hard for their wins. Lucky had less than perfect trips in all of his preps and he still managed to either win, place or show. He has guts. Sidney's Candy's first prep win was hardly a walk in the park for him. He was tested in the stretch and fought back to win.

It will be interesting to see what happens if Eskendereya is pushed. Will he fight back, or will he fold like a spoiled child?

I like Lookin' At Lucky, Sidney's Candy, and Eskendereya, put Endorsement in to keep things interesting. If I was placing a bet I would pick these four in a box superfecta if such a thing is possible.

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

VR. A. — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 03:21:05 GMT

I love this time of the year,engrossed for a few months in the tracking/handicapping of contenders for the Derby.

I agree, the key is the 1 1/4 distance. Using this key factor, the majority of the field can be eliminated as the "winner". Of course, any one can run well, but not "win". For me that's the key. No matter what's your betting menu, you start with having a solid choice to win.

Using numerous factors, both positive and negative indicators, like, dosage, CDI, classic figure greater than 8, dual-qualifier, sum of last 3 BSF, AWD, not with an undesireable broodmare sire line,finished 3rd and better in last prep. and ran well,final time in 1 1/8 races, late pace/times for 1 1/8 races,bio-rhythms, hot jockeys.

Anyway, that's part of the list.

Here's the result of the "math".

ONLY ones that can "win" :

Lookin at Lucky

Stately Victor

Awesome Act

Paddy O'Prado

Dean's Kitten.

* Stately Victor should be best late.

* Awesome Act should be there, if no repeat of the Wood behavior.

My best solid 2 would be LaL and Paddy O.

ps. morning line odds was not one of the factors.

Good luck to ya.

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

Matthew W — Wed, 21 Apr 2010 02:11:50 GMT

Snow Chief, 1986--he had romped in the Florida/Santa Anita Derbies--he was a running machine, and it didn't look like that extra furlong would be a problem--but that's why they run the races! And if you want to go by figures, Honest Pleasure looked unbeatable in 1976, didn't he? Was it a six, or seven horse Derby Field? DERBY FIELD! He scared everybody away--but he could not get the Derby distance, the extra 1/8 was taxing...THAT is why I love the Derby/THAT is why I love 1 1/4....

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

JOE — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 23:22:46 GMT

I read your article and will for certain point out the 2010 Kentucky Derby unfortunate favorite that is and will be Eskendereya. This horse can not run a mile and a quarter in this years Kentucky Derby and finish in the top 7 horses. It is just not in his blood. Joe

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

JOE — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 23:13:30 GMT

It so easey to get sucked into the odds of a horse that is 3/2 or 8/5 or 1/9 but acting without thinking or doing your homework is most likely the reason. The date is April 20th and I will be shocked if Eskendereya even runs in the Derby. Todd Pletcher knows that Mission Impazible is his best shot at winning the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya is not a one mile and one quarter race horse. Joe

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

Fire Slam — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 21:47:24 GMT

Terry Thompson said "the old man" and him have figured Dublin out.

Gotta a feeling Lukas has something up his sleeve.

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

Mary — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 19:13:54 GMT

Very informative article. I have a theory that heavy favorites don't win very often in recent decades because their heavy favoritism is caused by media hype as opposed to solid handicapping.

I think Arazi is a good example of that. He was spectacular in the BC juvenile but he had surgery shortly thereafter. Because of that he only raced once more before the Derby and that was only at a mile and on grass. He then drew a horrid post for the Derby. But the press conveniently ignored those facts and touted him to the point of the ridiculous. I recall them dubbing him the "2nd coming of Secretariat" but they forgot to mention that even Secretariat had a rock solid racing foundation going into the Derby.

Enough of my soap-boxing now but again, good article.

re: Will Popularity Equal Performance for Eskendereya in the Derby?

Funny1991 — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 18:38:04 GMT

No he is not going to win the Derby

Go Lookin at Lucky for the win!!!