Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

gmoney — Tue, 08 Mar 2011 00:08:48 GMT

n fact, during this 25 year window, we only have three Preakness starters (Looking at Lucky, Street Sense, and Timber Country), as 22 out of the 25 other BC Juvenile champs were unable to attend. LOOKIN AT LUCKY DID NOT WIN THE BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

Ranagulzion — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 00:10:21 GMT

The great ones have a way of turning history on its head. Go Uncle Mo!!!

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

Ranagulzion — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 00:08:39 GMT

A similar observation is bourne out in looking at the other premier 2YO classic-forcasting race, The Champaign Stakes. Over the same period 1985 - present, only four winners have gone on to win at least one of the Triple Crown series, namely: Easy Goer (Belmont 1989), Sea Hero (Derby 1993), Timber Country (Preakness 1995) and Birdstone (Belmont 2004).

The Champaign Stakes has been a "more reliable" forcaster of the Triple Crown race winners than the Breeder's Cup juvenile. Therefore it should not be surprising if the most recent Champaign stakes winner, Uncle Mo becomes the fifth one to succeed in a Triple Crown series. From the looks of his talent he could become the most famous Champaign Stakes winner, Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner and Eclipse award winning 2YO champ by copping the Triple Crown in 2011.

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

Ranagulzion — Sun, 20 Feb 2011 23:42:56 GMT

I'm not sure how Macho Uno in the BCJ 2000 strengthens your point about the inability of the top 2YOs to make it through to the Belmont when Point Given who lost that race by a whisker competed in all three classics, winning the Preakness and Belmont. A P Valentine also ran in that BC Juvenile and came back to be second to Point Given in the Belmont. Similarly in 1988 the 2YO champ Easy Goer, beaten a length by Is it True in the BCJ came back strongly in all three classics in 1989, winning the Belmont. The occurrence is rare but exagerrated a bit in your column.

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

brettzky99 — Sat, 19 Feb 2011 00:42:25 GMT

Obviously, the main variable as to why the statistics as presented seem emphatically adverse, is that there is only 1 BC Juvenille winner in +- 30,000 three year old colts competing in the subsequent year. The BCJuv jinx was done in 2007, the 20 post in 2008. I guess you can focus on these "jinx" stats, or better yet, watch the colt's races, look at the splits. While we are on the topic of the BC Juvenille; care to extrapolate what the finish would have looked like if the race was longer??

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 14:19:36 GMT

In Chief's Crown's day, most 2yos did not start going around two turns anywhere in the country until October; and in Affirmed's day, there were only a couple of 2-turn races at the top level. In fact, Affirmed never ran around 2 turns as a 2yo; the Laurel chute was long enough for 1 1/16 races to use the 'long' finish line. Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity was a 'short-mile' one turn race, while the Kentucky Jockey Club Cup was a full mile out of the chute. Even the Remsen was a one-turn mile back in the days when 2yo champs were frequently classic contenders of note.

Young horses do not need to be racing around two turns or long distances to determine their worth. The two best races for 2yos in Britain, the ones that traditionally point out the Guineas and Derby hopes, are at 6f and 7f down the Newmarket straight. Too many turns, especially ones right out of the gate, too soon in the career can mess up joints of young horses.

Oh, and in Chief's Crown's BC Juvie, the Hollywood Park track had just been expanded to 9f and there was a one-mile chute for the Juvie races to be run from. But then, he'd already run 8 races as a 2yo, 7 of them before he won the Norfolk around two turns, so he had a proper 2yo preparation to build bone and muscle.

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

Carlos in Cali — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 21:55:18 GMT

Clearly this research shows that the BCJ winners & subsequent 2yo Champs progressed earlier/quicker than their counterparts,no surprises there.And come spring time of their 3yo campaign the also-rans have caught up to the 'precocious' ones.

Only 1 BCJ winner has gone on to take the Roses...that's a paltry 1 for 25 so far."Placing" in the BCJ then "winning" the Belmont while the 2yo Champ is a no-show further solidifies the author's point: For some reason these fast maturing colts do not improve significantly as 3yo's,if at all,barring some type of set-back or injury. That's why I stated right after last yr's BCJ that we've more than likely seen UM's best and the other true Derby contenders will eventually catch up to him physically,maturity & talent wise.

Re: Chief's Crown the inaugural BCJ winner and the ONLY ONE who contested all 3 legs of the TC.

He "hit the board",..further evidence of 2yo Champs coming back to the field,sort-of-speak.

Good job 'Ghost writer!

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

Jason Shandler — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 20:36:39 GMT

Also, Uncle Mo would be the first horse in history to win the Belmont with a name beginning with the letter 'U.'

Ian's point is spot on in refuting this article. The author (I'm not sure who it is) conveniently waited to the end of his story to refute his own research. Don't really undertand that.

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

Ian Tapp — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 20:29:32 GMT

2YOs who can win an 8.5f G1 in November are usually quite different physically than horses who would contend for a 3YO 12f G1 in June.

Still, the significance of the BC Juvenile remains. Placing in the race were eventual Belmont winners Easy Goer, Tabasco Cat, Editor's Note, Point Given, and Afleet Alex.

BC Juvenile winners have gone on to win the Derby (Street Sense), Preakness (Timber Country), and Travers (Chief's Crown, Rhythm). Plus, placers Spend A Buck, Alysheba, Cat Thief, Lookin At Lucky, and the five Belmont winners all won Classics or G1 10f events at age 3.

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

FourCats — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 20:02:46 GMT

This is not really a surprise. 2yr old champions are most often early developing sprinters. Fast, yes. Distance loving, no. Almost no major 2yr old race is longer than 1 1/16 miles. Most are shorter. In my opinion, it has nothing to do with the fragility of the breed (although there is evidence that that is happening) and very little to do with training methods. It has everything to do with the late developing, distance loving horses catching up to the 2yr stars.

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

Poormansracehorse — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 18:02:38 GMT

I think the elephant in the room here is extensive use of Bute and Lasix in today's thoroughbreds in North America. Look at any chart - they're virtually all on Lasix whether they're bleeders or not.

Medicating them from the time of their first work doesn't make them stronger apparently, and I would love to see an unbiased analysis of the hardiness of North American race horses both before and after the medication rules were changed.

re: Why Uncle Mo Winning the BC Juvenile is a Bad Thing

Brian Appleton — Wed, 16 Feb 2011 18:00:59 GMT

I remember what a huge deal it was when Street Sense broke the "juvenile jinx" back in 2007.

Uncle Mo is definitely up against history but then again the expectations set for his 3-year-old season are incredibly high.

If I remember correctly Lookin At Lucky bypassed the Belmont Stakes as well.