Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

LDP — Sun, 12 Apr 2009 02:18:52 GMT

Slew,

Your right. Talamo is also very capable because he does not let pressure get to him easily. He understands the situation and just does what he needs to do, not worry about what went wrong. Thats a very rare trait in any person to be able to shrug off that kind of pressure, let alone a 19yr old who is riding his first derby horse. He may get cocky every now and then, but the boy's got talent, and a cool head on his shoulders, which gives him a huge advantage.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Slew.em.All — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 00:58:51 GMT

LDP: that shows you how much Draynay knows about racing...and Talamo's ride in the Wood proves he's capable of riding in Big-Time races.Patient & Gutty.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

LDP — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 02:14:49 GMT

Dray, how old was affirmed's jock, when he won the Derby, i believe it was only 17 or 18.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Draynay — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 14:11:55 GMT

Merrywriter if you want to put your money on a 19 year old rider who has never ridden in the Derby go right ahead... bet big.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

merrywriter — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 16:39:27 GMT

After watching I Want Revenge and Talamo get thru the traffic in the Wood, that's what it takes to win the Derby. The KD is not about the best horse, it is about the horse who can get thru a traffic jam. The field of contenders will need to be lowered if the KD is ever to be about the best horse.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

DANNIE — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 09:47:12 GMT

ALL i KNOW IS i AM love WITH qUALKITY rOAD LOOKS LIKE OUR BOY mR.b WITHOUT A BLAZE AND HE SET THE PACE LAST WEeK...lOVE HIM

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Coldfacts — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 01:45:54 GMT

I watched the Sham again today and I think Mr. Hot Stuff needs something on his face. I know he won after the blinkers were removed but a special visor could do the trick. He certainly appears capable of running all day and if there is a pace melts down he could capitalize. Oddly enough, his historic negative is his sire. Only one winner of a Breeder Cup race has ever sired a derby winner and that was Unbridled the sire of Grindstone. Horses that tail off in their races are not ideal for the derby due to the traffic problems they invariably encounter in large fields. There are two horses that have more long shot appeal. They are the well bred Cape Truth and the hard knocking or Feisty Suances. I am expecting Feisty Suances to turn the table on POTN. I always respect horses whose dams are sired by the sons and grandsons of Northern Dancer i.e., Street Sense, Eight Bells, Big Brown etc. Cape Truth dam was sired by Far North a son of the great Northern Dancer.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Draynay — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 19:13:07 GMT

My Top 5.

1 thru 5 ... Quality Road.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Speedball — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 18:45:01 GMT

Coldfacts-thanks for the tips. I'll check out Regal Ransom, but I just have the same feeling about Quality Road that I had about Big Brown last year. I just knew Big Brown would win unless something unforseen happened. Call it intuition if you will.

What do you think about Mr Hot Stuff if he pulls an upset at Santa Anita? He's got those great Tiznow genes.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Travis L — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 16:27:18 GMT

MY TOP FIVE

Not that anyone care's is

1 Quality Road

2 I Want Revenge

3 Desert Party

4 Dunkirk

5 Win Willy

any one like or dislike these top 5 picks, I could state numerous reasons from pedigree, to race times, to beyer's, so on and so on why this is a true top 5

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Coldfacts — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 16:26:27 GMT

Speedball, QR has the perfect derby winners profile and I like him a lot. However, I feel he is going to get beat because of a few historic negatives. This probably has no significance but only five unraced broodmares have foaled derby winners in the last 54 years. The last time it occurred was 32 year ago. It’s funny how few winners are produced from unraced mare these days. Between1938 and 1949 seven of the 11 winners were produce from unraced mares and in ones stretch unraced mare produced four consecutive winners. I watched his gallop out after the FL Derby and he pulled pretty quickly. He may have some stamina limitations at 10 furlongs. Big Brown a horse with similar high cruising speed ran 1:35 plus being geared down. In the FOY he was not being geared down and ran 1:35 plus as well. Big Brown clearly displayed more capacity for the longer distances. QR dam sire Strawberry Road has no derby record would be breaking through against well established broodmare lines .This is always difficult in the derby. I love this horse chances and probably he can overcome his historic negatives.

FF blood is too blue. He was sired by a former HOY and produced from dam that earned $681,330. His profile does not exist on the past winners chart. Derby winning mares are well bred low earners who have little success in graded races. He is a nice horse but cannot see him winning based on historic data. Horses like FF, Dunkirk & Old Fashioned do not win derbies. Take another look at Regal Ransom. I saw something in that UAE Derby that told me he is now significantly different colt. He is probably the youngest colt in the derby mix and to beat older horses and top rated stable mate Desert Party at 2yrs 10mnth is significant.

Win Willy ran passed a tire Old Fashioned. His path was made easier because the field was small and they were in reverse when he started his challenge. His speed figures coming out of the Rebel are far too slow for him to have any chance. His historic negative: he is sired by a Derby winner. Derby winners have extremely poor records a derby sires. Only two winners have been sired by derby winners in the last 40 years. Although Monarchos ran the second fastest derby he was not a horses blessed with speed. Win Willy will have to be ridden every inch of the Churchill surface to get close. No Chance.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Brian A. — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 02:03:31 GMT

Hey Kevin!! Great your on here again, I love reading your write-ups!!

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Speedball — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 00:19:10 GMT

I think the picture will become clearer after the Santa Anita and the Wood, but I think Quality Road and FFire are going to be very difficult to beat no matter what happens there. Quality Road is my favorite-strong, tough, and fast. I also like Win Willy, especially if the pace is hot, to finish in the top three.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Ranagulzion — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 21:02:20 GMT

The problem with a lot of the rankings and forcasting is the assumption that only those horses said to be on the derby trail by their connections are being considered. Good ranking and forcasting should take all likey/reasonable factors into consideration such as nominated horses that qualify on earnings and talent, not officially on the trail but which could line up in the gates and upset all calculations. I refer to two very talented horses which would certainly make the top five once their connections indicate that they are in, namely Big Drama and Rachel Alexandra. A fit Square Eddie could also rank right up there. Don't think for a moment that it is a far fetched idea because some owners and trainers prefer to avoid the pressure and spotlight so that they can make the right decision.

For whatever its worth here's my top ten: Quality Road, Big Drama, Rachel Alexandra, I Want Revenge, Win Willy, Friesan Fire, The Pamplemousse, Dunkirk, Chocholate Candy, Old Fashioned. Perhaps Pioneer Of The Nile should have been included because if the scenario that i assume plays out Dunkirk would not make the cut on earnings unfortunately.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Coldfacts — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 20:29:34 GMT

Any colt that shows exceptional ability and is sired by a son or grandson of Mr. Prospector is likey to win the derby. His sons and grandsons have sired eight of the last 19 winners. Ifyouadd in his winner Fusaichi Pegasus it is 9 of the last 19 (47.36%) Quality is anexceptional colt but I think focus should be on UAE derby winner Reagl Ransom. He is also sired by a grandson of the great stallion. His broodmare line carries more stamina than that of QR. When a late foal (May 24)wins in that fashion it is normally come back better with five additional weeks of development. This likely to be the derby winner. Remember he ran 1:22 plus on his debut at 2yrs 3mnths.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Draynay — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 19:16:46 GMT

If you believe Dunkirk is talented then you have to believe Quality Road is the next Derby winner. Back to back Beyer's of 113 and 111 is not enough to convince you? Friesan Fire has run against average horses and has never gone beyond 1 1/16th and you expect HIM to beat Quality Road? Don't make me laugh. Anyone who thinks Friesan Fire can take 7 weeks off and then face a horse firing Beyer's over 110 is crazy. Watch all the races all you want but this one is over. Quality Road 2009 Derby winner... write it down.

re: Quality Road Deserves Top Ranking

Matthew W — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 18:38:36 GMT

Since NO HORSE came from off the pace last Sat...WHY does Dunkirk's stock "fall"?...You mean there's REALLY a 1 thru 7 spread between Quality Road and Dunkirk?