2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Tsali — Fri, 01 May 2009 22:08:18 GMT

Hope everyone got to see the Star of the week-end run today.. There is not any other horse at Churchill Downs that can measure up to Rachel Alexander, she is the balm!!!!

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Amateurcapper — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 20:01:39 GMT

RANAGULZION: If Kentucky Derby winners is the only criteria for a great stallion, you're correct. I believe that a great stallion throws horses like himself...if given the time. The worst thing to happen to MAJESTIC WARRIOR was to win the G.1 Hopeful. A.P. INDY-sired runners need more time...unfortunately the Breeders' Cup chase has ruined his progeny. Look to his sons, where less is expected of them to be early producers. Case in point...STEVIE WONDERBOY, was Champion 2y.o. sired by STEPHEN GOT EVEN. I WANT REVENGE will start Derby 2009 as the favorite.

HOUSEHOLDER: I don't know about the 7 week layoff...GRINDSTONE in 1996 was the last Derby winner I recall winning the LA Derby (Funny Cide ran 3rd in '03 before 2nd in Wood and won Derby) but even he had another prep in the Arkansas Derby prior to the big race.

MERRYWRITER: GQ would be an upset but IWR will be the likely favorite.

DA3HOSS: I hope you get one!

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Ranagulzion — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 15:23:27 GMT

da3hoss: Market forces and the "almighty" dollar doesn't make a great stallion. Undoubtedly investors in these over-hyped stallions become very wealthy but for the purists it is the accomplishments of progenies in championship races like the Triple Crown that sets apart the great ones. Also you should reflect upon the quantity and quality of mares bred in relation to the output of truly classic performers.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

da3hoss — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 11:31:34 GMT

I PRAY I should live to see the day I own an over-rated producer like AP Indy...

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

merrywriter — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 23:53:46 GMT

My two bits on winner: Upset is the usual word at the Derby it seems.

General Quarters because he's the feel good, last chance story and they do win - who was the 90 yr/old lady and her horse that won a few years back?

I Want Revenge because he gets thru traffic with the luckiest kid in the world - Joe Talamo who to win at 17/18 is another Derby type upset.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Householder — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 18:12:44 GMT

Has any horse ever won the Derby coming off a 7 week layoff?

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

LDP — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 11:38:29 GMT

Alan,

I got to see the replay of the withers, and it was an impressive race. Both the first and second place horses had some trouble at the gait, and both ran great races. Mr.F looked like he won it easy, despite the margin, the jockey in the later stages was just hand riding Mr. F. I was also impressed with the consistancy of the splits. The first Quarter in 23, second in 22.8, then the last two went in 24.3 and 24.7. Guess there is another horse that can run a fast mile, and i believe he beat out Dray's beloved QR's mile time. This horse will be a force to be reckoned with if he goes to the Preakness.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Amateurcapper — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 05:08:01 GMT

TSALI: Can't agree that the Oaks as a whole will be comparable to the Derby but agree 100% that RACHEL is looking like a super-filly.

ALAN: MR. FANTASY sure looked great rebounding from his bounce in the Gotham vs. I WANT REVENGE. He will be ultra-tough in the Preakness with the sharp, relatively flat turns at Pimlico usually favoring speed/tactical types.

More impressive to me was THIS ONE'S FOR PHIL who got a horrendous ride from Dominguez and only went down by 1 3/4 when he suffered more trouble than the distance he was defeated by. Gave the winner 7 lb. and finished 7 1/2 clear of 3rd while proving that he's not the speed-crazy gelding at a one turn mile that set the pace in the Fountain of Youth. This one's for real...I'd love to see him in the Met Mile!

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Ranagulzion — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 04:57:07 GMT

AMATEURCAPPER: AP Indy is indeed overrated as a sire of classic/triple crown winners. After sixteen years at stud covering the best broodmares in North America he is yet to throw a Kentucky Derby winner. His preakness winner Bernadini was a great racer but won that race by default (in the wake of Barbaro's breakdown). Belmont Stakes winner Rags To Riches was his only 'legitimate' classic winner in my opinion and her dam Better Than Honour is due the major slice of the credit, having thrown Jazil(Seeking The Gold) the 2006 Belmont winner. I am not denying his accomplishments on the track neither his general quality as a sire of stakes horses and sire of sires. Its just that over the years his progenies have tended to be hyped as great Derby types in the run up to the triple crown races when in fact there is paltry supporting evidence.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Alan — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 22:19:25 GMT

Mr. Fantasy wins the Withers in 1:34.91. That figures to a Beyer rating of 114.

Not sure how it will be adjusted due to track conditions, but it was certainly impressive!

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Tsali — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 19:11:02 GMT

Left this out, I think this will be the first time the Oaks will be on even ground with the Derby, very talented fillies. Rachel Alexander is so exciting to watch elegant beautiful horse.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Tsali — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 19:02:03 GMT

Again, I think it is sad there seem to be no horses that are really at that superior quality. All seem to be about the same, so it goes to the break and which horse has the best trip. The times, workout or race, are not anything outstanding, although they are beautiful animals, would not risk anything if it were mine..

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

stardust — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 15:13:46 GMT

Karen2

I agree. Take the horse out of the Derby!! No more bad things can happen this year. A quarter crack is a quarter crack and he doesn't like the dirt. Also the traffic. That could hurt his foot.

Amateurcapper.

I like Pioneer of the Nile a lot. I want to go with FF because Greg has been very good with these horses. On another note, I feel that PON will win it with the horse/jockey combo. Edgar on Dunkirk is a good call but you are right. He has won the Derby.

I just don't know. I think that I am going to wind up going with Greg. No matter what I do, they are being boxed. I "think" PON will win it and FF come in second.

Greg J.

I think that General Quarters is going to do well in this race too.

This is a very hard Kentucky Derby and a dead heat is not out of the picture.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Travis L — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 14:22:21 GMT

gw_bushwacker

GQ doesn't train well at CD, his bullet 58 work is what made me rich in the Bluegrass. He also broke his maiden there, I'm not saying his last work was good, but do some research before you blog.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

bert — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 07:10:03 GMT

With GQ out of the way (my first choice), RR will still, FP or WW, may surprise. The track is to d--- hard. Oak'S and Derby, may be a surprise.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Amateurcapper — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 01:41:33 GMT

GMAN: Too rich for my amateur blood but I wish you good luck. Perhaps I'll stick with the FRIESAN FIRE underneath key in the exacta.

GW_BUSHWACKER: Good advice. I'll play devil's advocate and remind those who are waffling on GQ because of the reported dislike for CD main track that GQ won on dirt this year(Tam), broke his maiden at CD, and got the "breezing" designation for his bullet work on 4/4 prior to the Blue Grass win. Sometimes it's best not to overthink things.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Slew.em.All — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 01:30:17 GMT

gw----What?..GQ broke his maiden @ Churchill 1st time out and he had a tremendous work there before the Bluegrass,that's a fact!..somebody lied to you,or you're spreading false rumors.The track has been dead all week,don't sweat the work-out times,no worries.

You should be worried that QR won't have a work over the Churchill surface.Toss the 'Gimp b4 it's too late.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Amateurcapper — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 00:28:54 GMT

Great comments.

SHELLY: IWR is a great pick!!! Looks like the form from the G.2 San Felipe is strong w/ IWR's NY success, PAPA CLEM winning in Arkansas, PotN holding serve in CA.

STARDUST: If you liked DUNKIRK prior to GOMEZ choosing, why not stick with him. The game's about solid opinions and this is a talented field top to bottom. The trip will be paramount and remember that PRADO's already won a KY Derby. Not only was DUNKIRK expensive but he's proven himself as talented as his price tag promised.

GREG: Can't talk you off FRIESAN FIRE for all the reasons you mentioned. Blinkers have focused him, he adores an "off" track as much or better than fast footing. Good luck.

ALAN: Great value comment on SQUARE EDDIE, especially with the possibility of QUALITY ROAD defecting, which may leave EDDIE in the catbird seat. Between 20-1 or 30-1 on the BC Juvenile runner-up who's beaten PIONEEROF THE NILE twice??? People forget, NAKATANI's just as hungry as GOMEZ for a Kentucky Derby win!

SLEW.EM.ALL: How can you say QR is a "private school" "preppie" type when your choice is the one with the letters "GQ"?!?!?!

BIG AL: I love TALAMO, too, but he's so young and hasn't seen enough racing to be GARRETT GOMEZ or MIKE SMITH, or even STEVE CAUTHEN or RONNIE FRANKLIN. I WANT REVENGE is good but no AFFIRMED or SPECTACULAR BID...yet. Case in point - the G.3 Sixty Sails H. at Hawthorne last Saturday and the horrible ride he gave to SANTA TERESITA, the 4-5 favorite, who was ridden along the rail right into the same type of roadblock he was sending IWR into during the Wood Memorial. The mare was five lengths best in the 6 horse field yet officially got beat by a head.

LDP: You're preachin' to the choir! PotN gets much respect all over my blog.

LEAH: Throwing mad luck right back at you and GQ!

KAREN: I'm with you...let's hope they're prudent with QR. My guess is that the old school training knowledge and respect for the horse will guarantee a scratch while QR gets healthy for the Haskell or Jim Dandy and Travers prior to the Breeders' Cup.

D. RUTHERFORD: SQUARE EDDIE hasn't gotten press because he was injured...did you catch the comment of ALAN? This may be the price play.

RAMAGULZION: Can't see how A.P. INDY is over-rated. He was HOY and 3y.o. CHAMPION. Sired 2000 Derby runner-up and MG1 winner APTITUDE, Preakness winner and MG1 winner BERNARDINI, 2003 HOY MINESHAFT, MG2 winner and sire PULPIT, in addition to G.1 winner and sire STEPHEN GOT EVEN (sire of I WANT REVENGE and Champion 2y.o. STEVIE WONDERBOY), 2y.o. Filly Champion TEMPERA, 3y.o. Filly Champion and Belmont S. winner RAGS TO RICHES.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

gw_bushwacker — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 21:48:52 GMT

Whoever thinks GQ has any kind of a chance should take a look at his works. It has been widely reported more than once he does not like the CD track. He's struggling everytime he trains over it. Toss this dog out.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

GMAN — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 21:27:58 GMT

Here's the winning trifecta play for the Derby. Larry jones has come in second in the last two. Guess what? It will happen three times in a row. So, leaving QR out for now (status looks iffy with new quarter crack), you put IWR, GQ, POTN, MM, Papa Clem and Dunkirk on top over FF over all. GL!

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Slew.em.All — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 21:12:17 GMT

Rana,Rana,Rana---tsk,tsk.It just so happens that my 3 Bulldogs are hard to separate,it's like picking a favorite child of mine.Though I'm leaning towards The Cali Reaper(IWR),I like em' all the same.My M.O for the longest has been: if I like more than 1 horse equally,box em',why leave the 'threat' out of the mix?

And I'm not sweating QR whatsoever,my dilemma is in choosing between my 'Dogs...Also,if you'd check,you'll notice that I've been very high on General Quarters since right before his Sam F.Davis score.He's the real deal too buddy!Of course he'll also be in my Tix. Brave?..u go right ahead and pick 1 horse in this tough field,I'm trying to win money not bragging rights.

You know,I live vicariously....through myself! Stay thirsty my friend! lol

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

ThoroughbredZone.Com — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 20:53:16 GMT

Slew'em "QP won't win the Derby crack or no crack" Now there is an expert for you...Clueless

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Billy's Empire — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 19:58:50 GMT

West Side Bernie can pull off a shocker

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Ranagulzion — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 19:26:09 GMT

SLEW.em.ALL: You are such a smart handicapper. You choose four (adding GQ to your swelling list of Bulldogs) in order to improve your chances of preserving your handicapper's life against the awesome threat of a Quality Road blowout. I lift my hat to you Bro. Well now that the "hurricane" may be diverted away from pulverizing your reputation due to another unfortunate quarter crack you might think about coming out of hiding from behind four horses and selecting ONE like the rest of us brave ones. LOL.

If QR is taken out of the race I'll go for Friesan Fire to crown Larry Jones' career and give the over-rated AP Indy his first Derby get.

re: 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Douglas Rutherford — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 18:01:15 GMT

West Coast Superstars seem to always run dull in the Derby. Its amazing. With all the hype again on another West Coast Superstar, I believe I have to believe in it this time and go another way. I cant believe SQUARE EDDIE isnt getting much attention. I know that his speed rating hasnt been above 100, but is there a chance that he could become another Canadian winner such as Northern Dancer and Sunnys Halo! I thought Eddie ran well in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes. Showed ability to pounce with authority even though getting beat at the wire.