Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Amateurcapper — Tue, 19 May 2009 03:27:43 GMT

CAROLYN IN ND...Belmont is known as "BIG SANDY". "BIG" is in reference to the main track being the biggest dirt racing course in the world. "SANDY" because of the sandy loam that many horsemen consider the most desirable dirt to race on.

Last year, sprinters blazed on Belmont Day. The 1 1/2 mile Brooklyn H. was run in a pedestrian 2:30.96 the day before the Belmont S. The final Triple Crown race of '08 was run in slowish 2:29.65.

If there is no rain, expect a fair surface that a great horse like RACHEL ALEXANDRA could glide over. Do you think she'll be pressed back for the Belmont S.? Her sire was 2nd in the race to a blowout LS named SARAVA. RACHEL, if she runs, could find the 12f too testing.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

StardustyRose — Tue, 19 May 2009 02:24:24 GMT

Amateurcapper

What kind of drugs are you taking LOL? :)

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

da3hoss — Mon, 18 May 2009 22:45:37 GMT

Amateurcapper, I knew what the title was supposed to mean, I was making a littlec"haha" because of the drama Big Drama made at the other end of the starting gate when he whacked out and MTB was totally unfazed...

I've been asking if anyone there can tell me was the track really fast?

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Carolyn in ND — Mon, 18 May 2009 15:00:12 GMT

I recall past writings how each Triple Crown track is different & one of them being a harder surface. Is that Belmont? If so, Calvin said RA loved hard tracks. IF she goes to Belmont & the track is hard she will be a happier racer.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Saddle57 — Mon, 18 May 2009 11:59:02 GMT

I agree with your comment Ruffian, Rachel should not run with the boys anymore. She already proved to everyone that she can. I would love to see her in the Breeder's Cup this Fall.

At the end of the Preakness, MTB was flying toward the line. His stride was amazing! Go get 'em in the Belmont MTB!!

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Amateurcapper — Mon, 18 May 2009 06:05:35 GMT

It has been fun to read all the pre-/post-Preakness dialogue. I'll tackle the post race responses starting with the latest this time.

RUFFIAN...They're probably gonna market it that way while they see how RACHEL eats up, checks out physically. Let's not forget MTB has had two hard races in four weeks as well and there's no guarantee he'll make it either. However, he's lighter and may recover better. Agree the Belmont should be his game, his sire BIRDSTONE ran down SMARTY JONES in the Belmont back in '04.

Let's hope she gets a break from the boys until later this summer. I'm reading Haskell is a possibility.

DA3HOSS...title was to mean BIG DRAMA's pace pressure, a male's presence, could undo the amazon. Tell me, do you think the track was really "fast"??? The two w/ good recent form I figured to move up on "off" going finished 1-2.

RE: MTB...it's possible he'll add an Eclipse award for champion 3y.o. to his list of accomplishments.

RE: RA...BOREL said she didn't handle the track, that makes her win more amazing.

MIKE M...no doubt MTB substantiated his Derby win with this effort. Do you think DRAYNAY will concede he's not a "fluke", if you will concede that RA is a superior racehorse (speed, stamina, class vs. MTB's stamina, class).

DRAYNAY...can you concede MTB isn't a "fluke" considering he was a close 2nd and didn't finish off the board? Your point about RA is valid...I believe that if these two ran against each other three times, RA wins all three. However, that doesn't make MTB a fluke, just overmatched by a superior talent.

STARDUSTY ROSE & KAREN2...agree MTB is the front-runner for 3y.o. champ. Could either of you have predicted 2+ weeks ago that MTB could become the Belmont Stakes favorite? What an amazing run for his connections.

TTIMSAN...you made great points about the Preakness 1-2. Do you think either could be vulnerable to CHARITABLE MAN or some other new shooter in the Belmont S.?

MZ...many said ZENYATTA should have run vs. the boys last year, perhaps with "AMAZON OF THE DECADE" title on the line she and RA will throw down vs. the boys.

JOHN T...BOREL only wins the Preakness on RACHEL. He'd have had the same fate SMITH had w/ MTB.

As for RUFFIAN vs. RACHEL, there's no debate. The former was a brilliant but injury-prone sprinter/miler while RACHEL is a brilliant stayer. It's like apples and oranges, both are so sweet. Let's enjoy their careers for what they are.

Now, if you want to get into a RACHEL, WINNING COLORS, GENUINE RISK, or RAGS TO RICHES discussion, check out my blog next week (amateurcapper.blogspot.com).

Lastly,

J and S...see my RACHEL vs. RUFFIAN comment above.

As for the potential breakdowns, are you less nervous going forward since RACHEL came back safe?

As I wrote before, I'm hearing she didn't handle the track. That alone can be the reason she didn't appear as dominating to you.

I echo your sentiment about what this means to her career...I believe her original connections had the right idea and she'd have dominated at Belmont and Saratoga vs. her "peers". However, she may turn out to be the filly equivalent of SECRETARIAT after the year is completed and their cautiousness may have prevented us from seeing the first Triple Crown winner since AFFIRMED in 1978. She may have been the first FILLY TRIPLE CROWN WINNER!!!

Stop by TBA (thoroughbredbloggersalliance.blogspot.com) for lots of great blogs. I'd love to continue dialogue with you all on my blog (amateurcapper.blogspot.com).

Thanks for stopping by this weekend!

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Ruffian — Sun, 17 May 2009 21:14:14 GMT

What TWO GREAT Champions. I wanted Rachael AND Bird to win the Preakness. Rachel is a very impressive girl, and showed she is a true racehorse, but I worry about her if she is to run the Belmont. Calvin said she was having a tough time of it..especially at the end....so I fear, the Belmont being a longer race, she could really injure herself. They push and try hard and with her determination, to be infront, (because she always was infront with the girls, which she is used to), this is when they get injured. Just like 8 Belles.....they have that winning heart,and try even tho they cant anymore.

I did admire and respect her last owner. Not wanting to run her with the boys. SHe is a great filly and doesnt NEED to prove anything else! SO, why run her in the Belmont? They were just LUCKY, that she didnt get hurt.....now they cant leave well enough alone.

They are making it out to be a race against her and the Bird....just like Ruffian, this is not good. Rachel can still race with the girls and retire to be a broodmare.....safe and sound!..or will we kill her too?...never good enough for people, and the animal suffers.

I dont think Bird got all the recognition he should have tho. He is some horse....and will do well in the longer Belmont. That is where he shines!

Godspeed to both and may they stay safe.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

da3hoss — Sun, 17 May 2009 16:48:37 GMT

Funny title for this blog...will "Big" Preakness "Drama" unnerve RA...we know it didn't MTB! What did Mike Smith say? "Bravest little horse I ever rode"

Dray, I want a fluke like him...5 of 10, 2 show, the Kentucky Derby, 2nd in the Preakness, 2 year-old Canadian Champ, multiple graded stakes & stakes winner, earner of $1,637,200...fastest mud Derby ever, fastest closing quarter since 1934....please, Lord, bless me with such a fluke!

RA handled herself well, a little more nervous than I remember, but really well...

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

StardustyRose — Sun, 17 May 2009 15:55:21 GMT

MikeM

3/4 of a length LOL. :)

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

MikeM — Sun, 17 May 2009 14:14:40 GMT

RA...life and death to put away the "fluke". Perfect trip? Once again Dray you continue to show your pedestrian view of horse racing. Oh, and by the way do you always jump on the band wagon of the hot horse of the day.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

MikeM — Sun, 17 May 2009 10:49:54 GMT

She won by a diminishing length and to a "fluke" at that. He is one little amazing horse. What a thrill it is to watch him run.The best thing about MTB is that we will get to see him run many more races as there will be no breeding shed for him.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

draynay — Sun, 17 May 2009 05:04:54 GMT

The Fluke got WHIPPED !!! Catching Musket Man in the last 50 yards for second does nothing for me. The Fluke still has only won 1 race ALL YEAR. Rachel showed everyone who the best horse is this year. She won from the 13 post and was pressed all the way around forcing her to run very fast fractions. The Fluke got the perfect setup and still never got close. Rachel romped and showed everyone who the real champion is.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

StardustyRose — Sun, 17 May 2009 02:45:12 GMT

Karen2

So right about Mine That Bird. He is surely the best 3 year old this year for a colt. :) Love it!

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

ttimsan — Sun, 17 May 2009 02:44:10 GMT

RA impressed the heck out of me today, especially considering all the changes in the past two weeks. That filly is TOUGH. Congrats to Calvin and hats off to Asmussen for a classy move to credit Hal Wiggins at the presentation.

MTB proved he is the best of the boys. Talk about gutsy runs, one right after the other. Looks like the fluke was the issue of running style early in the year. As much fun as I had watching RA, I had just as much fun watching MTB weave in and out of the field like a game horse running poles. Tremendously handy horse.

Hope both come out of the race well, hope RA takes to the Belmont track like a duck to water, and can't wait to see if MTB has it in him to run her down without any traffic issues.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

mz — Sun, 17 May 2009 02:08:52 GMT

Hopefully, this puts paid to all the "fluke" comments (and the "donkey" comments).

Now, on to the Belmont (and a flip so MTB is first and RA second).

Fun Triple Crown this year ... even if the same horse didn't win all three!

(And I agree: RA and Zenyatta in the Classic Classic this year - none of that namby-pamby "Ladies" Classic crap)

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

John T. — Sun, 17 May 2009 00:42:11 GMT

Rachel Alexandra showed today what a great filly she is but she is no Ruffian,I don,t think any filly will be another Ruffian.On Mine That Bird,he ran a good race showing that his Kentucky Derby win was no fluke.On Calvin Borel I

think he could have won the Preakness on the first two home.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Karen2 — Sun, 17 May 2009 00:42:08 GMT

Dray...you were right about Rachel but dead wrong about MTB. He is not a "fluke" and in my opinion a shoe in for the Belmont. Rachel was a joy to watch!!!!! Poetry in motion.

Its fun to read back over these blogs after the race. All the naysayers........

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Sun, 17 May 2009 00:42:08 GMT

Hey J - your post made me feel good, i thought i was the only one that didnt watch the race until i found out all was well! how sad is that?

hope they take care of RA, don't know why they made her run in the preakness - she won, but struggled, she could have lasted lots longer picking her spots. what's with all the media hype "i've never seen RA look so happy as she's been the last 3 days". WTF?

i agree the breeding is taking it's toll, and a big filly like her doesnt 'dig in', they struggle and their stride goes off, and then you've got trouble.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Amateurcapper — Sat, 16 May 2009 22:38:49 GMT

LET ME BE THE FIRST TO SAY WOW!!! I WAS WRONG ABOUT RACHEL AND MINE THAT BIRD.

They are at the top of the heap in this 3y.o. division.

ZENYATTA had better have her runnin' shoes on come BC Ladies Classic time!!! Hell, why not have them go against the boys in the BC Classic with

MINE THAT BIRD back on synthetics.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Sat, 16 May 2009 21:06:20 GMT

I am a big Rachel fan. My only concern is I have a fear about history repeating itself. And of course I will refer to Ruffian. In the great match race the jockey chose Ruffian over Kentucky Derby winner Foolish Pleasure. I will be rooting for Rachel today. And once I am sure that all horses are safe, I will rewind my DVR and watch the race!! I also like Fresian Fire and Terrain!!

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

NOLA — Sat, 16 May 2009 15:25:28 GMT

I saw Rachel run and win in the pouring down rain in New Orleans...a little later I saw Fresian Fire do it. There were a lot of good horses that day, including Terrain and Papa and I am a HUGE FF fan...but nobody had the precense that Rachel did. She's a freak. She looked like a colt.

At this point I gave up on handicapping and am going to settle for an exciting and safe run by all.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

StardustyRose — Sat, 16 May 2009 14:31:38 GMT

Citation

These horses today are so different. I agree with your comment but even in the 70's when we had our triple crown tri-o, the horses were a lot different and a hell of a lot more sound than they are now. They are not getting better. They are getting worse cause of the breeding.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Max E — Sat, 16 May 2009 05:39:58 GMT

Watching Rachel going to the paddock for schooling my impression of her was a relaxed but confident filly that was all business.No prancing and jumping. he is a beautiful animal and with her chin tucked in she had a regal look.

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

Timber — Sat, 16 May 2009 05:23:23 GMT

I think that 13 horses in the field with thunderstorms in the forecast right at post time may be the deciding factor in this race. How many of them have run in a driving rain?

re: Will a Big Preakness Drama Unnerve Rachel?

ElusiveQuality8 — Sat, 16 May 2009 04:28:18 GMT

If "Justwhistledixie" runs in the Oaks and loses to Rachel by 4 lengths; do you think we'd be hearing the same type of buzz. The 20 plus lengths is playing into this. She's going 1 and 3/16. She's part of a serious audible in terms of planning. Pletcher had his target as the Belmont and lots of time to work the plan. Personally, I like the betting angle in trying to beat her. She's an underlay. What ever speed figs., you follow, i'm not paying too much attention to any of the thoughts that she's been under restraint. Borel rides her loose from the start. We'll see. If she is the second coming of Ruffian, that's great! But, I would have been just as happy as a fan to see her face Zenyatta in the BC. Jess Jackson is not afraid to put up the L's on his crusade to save the industry. When they get to the one mile and 1/16 point; Rachel, Drama, F-Fire and P-O-N will have seriously engaged. i'm looking for Papa Clem to grind it out and get past that group in the end. nice blog!