141st Belmont Stakes

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

LadySkywalker — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 18:12:52 GMT

you were right about Dunkirk now that you say it the Derby stumble did most likely cause the hairline fracture he put up a gallant fight and in the end lost by only about to lengths to SB and beat MTB and CM among many others

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

MtBFan (STILL) — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:37:49 GMT

AmateurCapper:

Maybe I wasn't clear enough, but that's almost what I was trying to point out. Both Borel and Mine That Bird need to get extra training on following the wide turn. MtB was following it rather ragged, despite the excellent forward drive. Sort of an oxymoron...or something. :) Maybe MtB should try barrel racing. Hey, he can come here to Texas :D

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Amateurcapper — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 04:29:00 GMT

MTBFAN (STILL),

Did you see BOREL's rail skimming ride on MISS ISELLA in the Fleur de Lis at CD??? It was a risky and brave move. If you haven't seen it, that race is a must see.

If there's any question after that performance that BOREL is the jockey for MINE THAT BIRD, I can't believe what else he needs to do. WOOLLEY needs to remember, without BOREL he probably wouldn't have been a Kentucky Derby winner.

I'll tell you, BOREL may have swung MTB out too soon in the Belmont S. but he also saw fellow cajun DESORMEAUX hugging the rail on SUMMER BIRD and knew he wouldn't let MTB through. He didn't want to lose position while the horses directly in front were tiring, so the only path was on the outside.

If I owned a horse anywhere on the east or south, BOREL would be my rider. The dude is smart and fearless. He'll usually make the right move.

If you have time, check out my last two posts about the Triple Crown (amateurcapper.blogspot.com).

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

MtBFan (STILL) — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 17:46:04 GMT

I think the rail is the best place for MtB...unfortunately, I think that's his falling, not because he can't always win races from the rail, but because most jockeys will predict that and, as I heard one commentator (or maybe it was someone on here, I'm not sure) mention, he'd end up in the infield...:-/ What I saw in the Belmont was that Bird didn't have the discipline for following the wide curve yet (as well as the more debatable aspects like being let out too early, being tired and all that. But I think he had TONS of energy)

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Amateurcapper — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 06:18:56 GMT

GREG J.

Great playing...wish I had the stuff to make a $50 win bet, but that's why I'll always be an amateur.

I was going to lead off with FRIESAN FIRE, but with the Triple Crown fervor over MINE THAT BIRD, RACHEL ALEXANDRA, and SUMMER BIRD I will be leading off the discussion with those three.

As for my piece, I'm diligently researching and will have it up by Saturday. I was too busy this week w/ work, family...and my Lakers have kept me on edge! Up 3-1...it's WINNIN' TIME and I'm ready for an updated puppet commercial w/ Kobe and LeBron... KOBE: "Have you seen my fourth championship ring? I seem to have misplaced my fourth championship ring."

LEBRON: "Kobe, don't you get that at the first home game of next season?"

KOBE: "Oh, that's right...have you been watching when I received the three prior championship rings? Is that how you know when I will get my fourth championship ring?

LEBRON: (Shakes head, says nothing.)

J.B. STONED,

As for great race, I can't go there. Competitive race, I'll agree.

They went way too fast the opening 1/4 and 1/2 mile. JOHN V. on DUNKIRK was trying to beat one horse...CHARITABLE MAN. Mission accomplished and DUNKIRK was dead game to be 2nd...I'm sorry I was right about the injury potential. Do you suppose there are any horsemen that believe it was way too quick to bring back a 3y.o. colt with that kind of talent off such a terrible stumble?

DA3HOSS,

I beg to differ...it's not a joke to consider SUMMER BIRD or MINE THAT BIRD one-hit-wonders until they prove otherwise. If MTB needs a perfect trip to win, how reliable is he? He had dead aim on the wire but got late...moved too early? Sure. He couldn't even outfinish DUNKIRK who suffered an injury...how good can MTB really be? He danced all the dances and I respect his in-the-money finishes in all three. I'll shut up if he wins the Travers or Haskell...or maybe he doesn't win those and upsets the BC Classic field.

Is it money or accomplishments that make a stakes winning horse more than ordinary? For me, it's the latter.

MTB FAN (STILL),

Support your plucky, little gelding. One thing I admire about him is that he's a trier...now, if his one run could only be timed to perfection each race! Trainer Woolley is going to have to find a way to get MTB to close strongly while running wide...no rider in their right minds will allow that gelding to skim the rail ever again in a G.1 race.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

MtBFan (STILL) — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 16:32:26 GMT

Mine That Bird was fantastic in Canada, it took him a while to improve in the States but he did decently in the Sunland and then went on to Kentucky and beyond. He won by daylight in KY with the closing kick. He powered and "hung onto" Rachel's saddlecloth in the Preakness and though he wavered in the Belmont he still gave that fantastic closing drive when he was asked, what a powerhouse, but it was TOO SOON, Dunkirk edged him out of 2nd. We'll see MtB in Travers I bet, though I'd love to see him in Florida or Chicago...

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

da3hoss — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 15:25:24 GMT

In open competition, RA, MTB and SB have one grade 1 each, RA has one other Grade 1 against fillies, right now she barely has an edge, except the Derby is always considered the Jewel of the jewels.

The jury is wide open on the 3-year olds.

One hit wonder? He's the second overall leading money earner this year...what a joke...he's done more than any of the others, except arguably RA in the filly field.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

J.B.STONED — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 14:08:43 GMT

amateurcapper

i guess you were right five weeks might have been to soon of a comeback for Dunkirk he broke his freakin leg trying to beat those birdstone horses. Birdstone must be in the lead for champion sire at this point in the year..

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

J.B.STONED — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 15:41:17 GMT

I havn't seen this bloggers comments on the race and what a race it was. Now the great Birdstone has sired the winner of two thirds of the triple crown I am just glad the sheik spent his money on D'ORO and not Birdstone. I do like D'oro but not as much as Birdstone..

bird bird bird bird is the freakin word... I didn't have Summer Bird though thats gambing for you.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Greg J. — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 15:02:42 GMT

Amateurcapper,

Looking forward to your article coming up, I have added your site as a "Favorite" and a Desktop Shortcut. Keep up the good work...

As far as the Belmont, I really would have cleaned house if dunkirk finished fourth! What a great effort by him, Pure heart! He messed up all my trifecta's, But I was smart enough to Box him in a Superfecta with Mine that Bird, Summer Bird, Charitable Man, But only a $2 bet for $852.

After I saw Kent D. was on fire on the undercard, I placed a $50 Win ticket on Summer Bird!, Which brought in a nice $650, So all and all, It was a good day, Most important of all is that all the Horses came back safe and sound...

Amateurcapper,

In your upcoming piece, Don't leave out "Friesan Fire", Once he is healed up from his Surgery, He will show everyone the true champion he is. Two others everyone should keep there eye on, Of course, My favorite, "Nicanor", and watch out for "Zensational", Both will be at the Breeder's Cup, and win their respective specialty's, "Nicanor" on the Turf! and,"Zensational" in the Sprint!, Mark my words...

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Amateurcapper — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 05:23:24 GMT

KAREN2,

I love that you don't agree with me...it's what this game is built on. Having strong opinions about these game athletes is what keeps the owners of MTB coming back for more. They're out to prove their gelding is better than the other horses. You are helping carry the silks with your passion. There's no harm in loving a horse like you do and I admire your commitment to him.

Look...I respect the little gelding, really I do. He danced all three dances and accomplished the most of any Triple Crown contestants this year. On that I'll agree with you.

Here it comes again...but, until he wins a second one he's just another one-hit G.1 wonder. There are many examples each week of a horse winning at a class level above their true ability. When entered at that same level (because they were DQ'd or are eligible to re-enter), some never break through that barrier again.

Belmont S. winner SUMMER BIRD's best prior graded stakes finish was a 3rd in the G.2 Arkansas Derby. That was why his backers collected over $25 to win. I will have the same questions about him the next time he runs that I do regarding MTB.

Check the LIL E. TEE discussion I'm having w/ GAMMYP6...that Derby winner never won a G.1 again. Did he have a solid career? Yes...but at lower level competition. He won the G.2 Razorback H. (now a G.3) over a multiple G.3 winner.

The 3rd horse in that race is a perfect example of a lucky G.1 winner. SENOR TOMAS won the G.1 Super Derby in a slow 2:04. By comparison, dual BC Classic winner TIZNOW won that race in 1:59.84. True G.1 horses run fast. SENOR's only other graded stakes win came in a G.3 while another G.3 try yielded only a 3rd place finish.

GAMMYP6 correctly (according to pedigreequery.com) states LIL E. TEE's record was 13-7-4-1 for over $1.4 million. Would I have love to own that horse? YOU BET! But he's no G.1 horse on a study of class.

As for DUNKIRK, the jury is still out on him. He has not won a graded stakes yet but he's lightly raced, so his true class level has yet to be established. With two G.1 2nd place finishes, he certainly has a chance to be a legitimate G.1 horse but he's got to win some of these races.

I'd love to hear your comments over at my blog (click on Amateurcapper under the title to this)...stop by when you have a chance. You've inspired me to write a piece on this 3y.o. crop recapping the Triple Crown races! I'll have it up by the end of next week.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Karen2 — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 18:49:44 GMT

Do you consider Dunkirk a grade 1 horse? I'm not really sure how you can dismiss MTB and not call him a grade 1 horse. It baffles me big time. He has raced all three races in grade 1 company and has hit the board in all of them. So basically the little gelding would have had to win the Belmont to earn your respect??? you must not have much respect for any of these horses than because not ONE of them accomplished as much as MTB in the triple crown series. Not one. Furthermore, its hard not to concede that MTB is a legitimate grade 1 winner when he won the derby. Thats a grade 1 race and he won. Makes him a grade 1 winner no matter how you slice it. I will respectfully agree to disagree with you.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Amateurcapper — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 17:33:47 GMT

MIKE S.,

With a record of 3-1-1-1 in the Triple Crown, MTB is in the conversation. With a head-to-head loss to RACHEL, isn't she the top 3y.o.?

As for the sires...there was an interesting article by Steven Crist @ drf.com last week suggesting that the Belmont S. is the sire-making race over the Kentucky Derby.

GAMMYP6,

My point was that LIL E. TEE never won another G.1 race after the Kentucky Derby. His G.2 win prior to the Derby was over VYING VICTOR who didn't win a G.3 until after the Derby (Remington Park Derby) and TREEKSTER, who was a G.3 winner prior to their meeting, but won only 2 of 9 career starts.

If greatness is merely measured in prudent placement of a horse in the correct races, then your criteria is correct. But even you used the term "respectable", not great, in your second comment. My requirement for a Derby winner to be great is to follow that success up with additional G.1 wins, preferably vs. older horses as a late 3y.o.

Otherwise, LIL E. TEE is as great as UNBRIDLED or STREET SENSE. In my book, it's not even close.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

gammyp6 — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 08:21:03 GMT

yes Lil E. Tee. He retired with a lifetime record of 7-4-1 from 13 starts and earned 1,437,500.00!

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Mike S — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 04:14:07 GMT

Prior to this year's Triple Crown races I don't think too many people would have said that MINE THAT BIRD would win one, in a romp, and be in the money in all three races. MINE THAT BIRD is the top three year old colt (in my book anyway).

And how interesting that the new sire BIRDSTONE sired not only the Kentucky Derby winner (MINE THAT BIRD), but the Belmont winner (SUMMER BIRD)as well, which is extremely impressive. I am very impressed by BIRDSTONE thus far, and I think MEDAGLIA D'ORO and TAPIT are also doing remarkably well as sires.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Amateurcapper — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 04:13:29 GMT

KAREN,

Yes...MTB made another good run but I will not yet concede he's a legitimate G.1 winner. He didn't win the Belmont S., which was the criteria I required of him to change my opinion. Did he get a less than perfect ride? Yes. Does he need an ideal situation to win a G.1? Yes. He is sort of the modern-day SILKY SULLIVAN if he can get a jockey who's not trigger happy. I think that SMITH or GOMEZ will get the next ride, if they want it. Will it be enjoyable to contemplate MTB against DUNKIRK, QUALITY ROAD, I WANT REVENGE, and perhaps in a rematch with RACHEL? You bet!

EMILY and JOHN T.,

DUNKIRK was a brave dude, taken out of his usual style on a fast pace. How much do you suppose this effort took out of him?

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

John T. — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 02:07:40 GMT

If I was the connections of Dunkirk I would be very happy about

his performance in the Belmont as every major race for him the rest of this season will be at a mile and a quarter.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Emily — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 00:07:43 GMT

I admit I was wrong. Dunkirk got the distance much better than I expected.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Karen2 — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 23:07:38 GMT

MTB didn't win today but its time to call him a grade 1 horse and give him the credit he deserves after today's efforts. He came in a neck short of Dunkirk. Keep in mind he is the only one who showed up that has danced every dance. Both Dunkirk and Summer bird were fresh horses. That speaks volumes to me about the talent of MTB.This little gelding is the read deal. Hopefully he comes out sound and happy.....he will be a force to be reckoned with this year...you can bet on it!

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Amateurcapper — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 23:05:11 GMT

THE BIRD WINS...this time it's SUMMER BIRD who was still eligible for an allowance, non-winners of two races lifetime, race!

From the looks of it, GREG J. IS THE KING OF THE BLOG. He selected SUMMER BIRD 2nd behind MTB and his exacta looked golden at mid-stretch.

I was wrong about CHARITABLE MAN...he didn't have the goods, but neither did DUNKIRK or MINE THAT BIRD.

So, SUMMER BIRD...will he ever win another G.1 race...that's a discussion for another time.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Amateurcapper — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 17:22:24 GMT

Thanks to all who commented. This is what I love about this game...varied opinions.

MARK,

I agree with the MTB play-against, but will remind you that the plucky little gelding did win the Derby. If not him, who do you like?

GAMMYP6,

LIL E. TEE, really? A great read is HANDICAPPER'S STAKES FESTIVAL by JAMES QUINN...he chronicles the stakes action of 1993 and picked JOVIAL in that year's G.1 Oaklawn H. Does anyone remember JOVIAL?

BTW, that race is now a G.2 and the Razorback, which LIL E. TEE won, is now a G.3.

BELLWEATHER,

Am I correct in thinking you're on the gelding?

STEVE,

Glad I could be of service :) !!!

DAWN,

No need to be embarrassed...MINE THAT BIRD won the Derby at 50-1 which meant more people lost the race than won it. One thing is certain in this game...it's uncertainty. Good luck.

MARK RIPPLE,

This is in your wheelhouse...MTB is even-money in the early wagering according to bloodhorse.com while Dunkirk is 7-1 and CM at 5-1 is 2nd choice.

KAREN,

You read that right...I believe that circumstances play heavily into this game. We'll have to agree to disagree. I did give him credit for finishing well in two straight races...but if he was really that talented, wouldn't he have blown away the horses that beat him in NEW MEXICO?!?!?! I feel he's a G.2/G.3 horse at best but I may be in the minority as MTB is 1-1 in early wagering. Thanks for weighing in.

LAZMANNICK,

I have disliked the stumble since BARBARO stumbled and won the Derby. Good luck with FLYING PRIVATE!

J.B. STONED,

I disagree, and that's the beauty of this game. By approximately 6:30 eastern, we'll know who's correct. Win or lose...I won't be calling you a "FLUKE" in the post-race, just right or wrong. Enjoy the day.

EMILY,

CM was running his own race, you're right. However, HB was pulling him faster than GARCIA probably wanted to run. As for the mile split, good/great horses run fast. I'm not anointing CM as great yet, but I think he can be, and if he is what I think he'll run another good race today. CONQUISTADOR CIELO ran away with the 1983 Belmont after he won the Met Mile in 1:33. There are some similarities to that brilliant horse's record and CM's up to this point. His sire is Belmont S. winner LEMON DROP KID...his daughter LEMONS FOREVER won the '06 Kentucky Oaks and his son COSMONAUT was 3rd in the BC Mile but graded wins were from 1 1/16 to 1 3/8. CITRONNADE won three graded stakes at 9f and another at 1 1/4 mile on turf. His stamina can get a horse around two turns.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

sweet terchi — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 17:14:50 GMT

Greg J., you may be right, but I like Chocolate Candy (Cali!),plus the fact that GG is riding him since MS can't. I also just want everyone (human & equine) to have a safe trip home. Good Luck to everyone if you placed bets!!

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

steve s — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 16:29:26 GMT

With bad track ALL TOP THree picks are done.BET HARTY ,ZITO and LUCAS

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

Emily — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 15:42:11 GMT

CM was at one point over seven lengths behind HB so he was not close enough to be burned out by that pace. He's a very nice horse with a bright future but all that really tells us is that he's not going to need the lead. No way he can run a 1:34 mile and finish this race so I don't know how much of an advantage that kind of speed will be. Should be an interesting race pace wise. One thing I'm sticking to is that Unbridled's Song's can't get a mile and a half. I don't think he's had any stayer offspring? Correct me if I'm wrong.

re: 141st Belmont Stakes

J.B. STONED — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 15:02:26 GMT

The only fluke is the person who wrote this article. If you win the derby and come up a length short in the preakness that would validate your derby win. You must have missed the birds final work before the belmont and five weeks is plenty of rest for Dunkirk. He wins if the bird does not...