Breeders' Cup is Half Full

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

twilight tear — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 02:08:56 GMT

To our friend above who stated "Let them run where god intended, on dirt"

I believe most horses run in pastures and fields, which are grass, not dirt.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

da3hoss — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 20:37:55 GMT

Leon, she died "trying"...good grief.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

afleetalexforever — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:33:37 GMT

Thats a good question Leon. It seems to me that the Moss's do not in anyway want to challenge Zenyatta, they know the synthetics is to her advantage and the other horses have to travel which is to her advantage, so if there is more than 1 advantage for her they will choose that race, unfortunately the 10 furlongs and facing colts is something the connections say would be asking too much of her. And if you look at Sheriffs comments about her just rounding into form that would give an indication that these previous 9 months Zenyatta was not ready to run her best races, which was obvious considering her last win, all out to win by a nose at the wire, and this against a allowance horse. Her 99 beyer is not something of legends, and that beyer is her season best this year. So will she run in the B.C. Classic, lol thats laughable, she'll be in the L.C. unless it comes up too tough and at that point she may be scratched if they have a feeling that she could lose against a monster like Music Note.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

LEON — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 23:43:47 GMT

@Da3hoss:

Ruffian falls in the category "did not even try". She was extraordinary in her accomplishments, but she could not achieve a 3-3, all G1's against the boys. She might have, she could have...maybe....but she did not.

I agree with you regarding Busher...You know what else she has in common with RA? ...She did not need a B-Cup race to prove her greatness either...

Question: Do you think the Mosses will run Zenyatta in the Classic or the Distaff?

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Shawn P — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 18:37:05 GMT

Buy many horses? The market correction is a reflection of the economy. The fact that KY lenders who previously were free with lending are NOT this past year.

As far as taking horses from one trainer to the next? Happens all the time. If you owned them you'd know there's always more to it than meets the eye. Just think of the owners who have moved horses from one barn to the next in the last 2 years.

If you really are a handicapper, even an amateur one? I'd be sort of surprised. People talking about Trainers and owners being a big part of the problem, if not intimating that they are totally responsible? If you KNOW what you're talking about that's fine, if you're on the outside looking in? It's purely speculation.

Dublin's still learning. Was pushed for the first time in the Hopeful. He’s had 3 races and was a late in the year starter. He may have one, possibly two races before the end of the year. One if he doesn’t go to the BC.

Kind of makes me chuckle, you go from hyping Wayne bringing Dublin to the BC and then go to dissing the horse that you know NOTHING about.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

LDP — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 11:57:28 GMT

Amature,

Though not to the degree of synthetics, all dirt tracks are different. Del Mar could've tried to do a different mixture, maybe making more similar to tracks that have less breakdowns. Some tracks also have a better maintained track, and IMO Saratoga is one of them. Maintaining a track is a big factor, and it has been noticed that a better maintained dirt track Saratoga, is better than synthetics. Many ppl were saying that Cali had hard fast tracks, Saratoga doesn't. The harder and faster a track is the more potential you have for breakdowns, so IMO all the had to do was experiment around a bit until the found a mixture of dirt sand, and what ever matirials used in dirt tracks, until they found a style that wasn't that hard and fast, then maintain it. Trainers are a big problem yes, so are breeders, but these tracks are just as big an issue. Del Mar may be better now with synthetics, but IMO they need to find something else, because 11 breakdowns, is still way too much.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

gib. — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 09:59:49 GMT

"Horse of Year" suffers or profits from the same controversy as all mythical championships.

Until the crown is decided on the track by earning points in specifically identified races or whatever other actually head to head competition is chosen, it will always just be one person's opinion against another's. True competition would determine a true champion. However, all these interesting debates would dissappear.

Divison I college football - obvious way to select a true champion: have a play-off. But no, they set up a sham, not totally unlike the BC with the traditional bowls games linked it so that the champion is usually open to debate - keeps a bunch of teams in the news and able to claim the championship even though they don't have the trophy.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

LEON — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 03:46:02 GMT

@Amateurcapper:

Rachel got the weight brake because she is a 3-year old filly facing older horses, and even though such group did not include a Ghostzapper/Curlin type of champion, it was more than decent, with several graded stakes winners in the field; but then again, you already knew that.

This is why I praise RA's connections in their handling of the filly. So many owners & trainers rush horses into challenges they are not ready for, with disastrous results. Just look at what they did with Quality Road, running two races in 4 weeks, and jumping from 6 1/2 furlongs to 10 furlongs in that 2nd race after a 4-month layoff!!!

They have increased the difficulty of the challenge for RA step by step, and the filly has rewarded them gallantly. That's the way to handle a valuable horse, and they should be praised, not criticized.

I am critical of the Mosses, though. 3 races in almost 9 months, with no new challenges, and within the same circuit. I really don't get it...unless the big mare has health issues, I don't understand why they brought her back in 2009. Their handling of Zenyatta has devalued her 2008 accomplishments; and if Zenyatta is still undefeated by the time the Classic is run, I would be willing to bet that when the Mosses see the entries for the Classic, they will think of that undefeated record of hers, and they will enter her in the distaff. (I refuse to use the stupid name they call that race now). I do not see her in the classic.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Amateurcapper — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 03:38:50 GMT

@Shawn P.,

Thanks for correcting my "historical" naivite' and for commenting.

As for the Del Mar synthetic point, wouldn't you have been glad that instead of your horse being one of the 15 or 16 that perished on Del Mar dirt, that your horse came back to the barn in one piece because he/she was #13 or #14 who was spared because of Polytrack? Or, do you consider an injured thoroughbred as useless as a dead one?

Look, I don't particularly like the synthetics. If you check out what I posted on my blog (amateurcapper.blogspot.com) early in the week, it was far from an endorsement of it back in '06 when I first wrote it.

I'll be posting a follow-up to it soon, not exactly describing the experiment in glowing terms. I think one synthetic in SoCal is enough to record longitudinal data re: injury rates, types, etc.; keep the surface that does least harm as the test track. Restore the other two in SoCal to dirt. Everyone's happy.

As for blame, even Dr. Rick Arthur reports that every fatally injured TB had a predisposing injury that contributed to the demise. He intimated not too long ago in an article that horsemen "try hard" at the start of meetings, particularly at Del Mar, which put their charges in harm's way. He also stated that changing from the consistency of one synthetic to another is a variable to consider. I guess I'm living in the perfect horse racing world, where people do right by the horse because the horse is a part of their family, a living being, not just a potential check-earner. Too many races in succession, turn the horse out. Injured, give 'em time to heal the right way instead of patching/medicating the horse to run in three weeks. Culling by attrition never sat well with me.

The "MIRACULOUS SAVIOR" is sound judgment, putting the horse first, something that many horsemen seem to have left behind. The market correction in the breeding industry is happening for a reason...racing needs more patience from horsemen on behalf of young horses, so they can develop into terrific older horses.

P.S. I'd be a little leery of DUBLIN going forward...he's a game dude, just like his sire, overcoming a bad start to win the Hopeful. However, he's had two terrible stumbles which often take their toll on a horse at any age. QUALITY ROAD stumbled/ran huge in the Amsterdam, lost the Travers. QUALITY ROAD stumbled earlier in the year losing an allowance race to THEREGOESJOJO, ran away with the FOY avenging that loss, then ran huge in the Florida Derby. That caused him to be scratched from the Derby due to a persistent quarter crack. For showing good judgment in scratching QUALITY ROAD, Jimmy Jerkens had him and other Evans homebreds taken away. How's that for negative reinforcement by an owner.

DUBLIN needs a good, long break to get his legs healthy and strong if he's to do any damage on the Derby/TC trail next year. If he shows up in any race this year (Champagne, BC Juvenile), DUBLIN is vulnerable.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

da3hoss — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 21:17:24 GMT

The Phantom, sorry to disagree with you, but no she doesn't...the BC is one race and yes, if the HOY was hotly contested with no clear cut dominating horse, yes, then she'd have to go...there's no one even close to her dominating wins and record this year, and only Summer Bird (by winning BOTH the JCGC and BC) or Gio Ponti (winning BC) or possibly, maybe stretching it, Einstein (win BC) have even a remote chance of being mentioned in the same breath as her to be even nominated.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

da3hoss — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 20:14:28 GMT

Leon, Ruffian died in July...she never made it to the fall of her 3 year-old year...and she did try, in fact it was hoped to be against more colts but all backed out. She can't be included in "tried but failed" unless you include dying as failing....

Now the filly who did beat all the boys at 3, including older males Grade 1 at 10F and set a record, is Busher, at 3, beat older males twice, as well as 3 year-old males twice 7-10 furlongs, on dirt and turf.

Older Males:

Washington Park Handicap 10F on dirt, beating Armed, top older male and set a track record,

Arlington Handicap, wire to wire

She beat 3 year-old males:

San Vincente Stakes GR3, CARRYING TOP WEIGHT,

Hollywood Derby

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Shawn P — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:17:58 GMT

P.S. You were speaking about WHO WAS going to come to the BC?

My point and that of Bryan was what ONE trainer you mentioned thinks of the synthetics.

Stating you'll 'see' if his 'fearlessness' inspires him to do it.

My point? He has a potential Derby horse. He doesn't like the synthetics and just as he's made other opinions known he's made this opinion very clear. The comment about the TC? To clarify to PAM his feelings about the importance of the Travers.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Shawn P — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 17:06:00 GMT

Amateur, considering every TC race has been run at different times in the past? History of the race? The Preakness was in place 3 years before the first Derby. Since 1931, the TC races have been run in the current order Prior to 1931, the Preakness was run before the Derby eleven times. On May 12, 1917 and again on May 13, 1922, the Preakness and the Derby were run on the same day. On eleven occasions the Belmont Stakes was run before the Preakness Stakes. Even though the Belmont is the oldest of the TC races it's gone through more changes than any of them. From the song they sing to the date its run to the change in distances. Run at a mile and five furlongs from 1867 to 1873; a mile and a quarter in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1895, 1904 and 1905; a mile and a furlong in 1893 and 1894; a mile and three furlongs from 1896 to 1903 and from 1906 to 1925. The current distance of a mile and half was established in 1926. The first TC winner was Sir Barton in 1919. So if you're talking about it from a truly 'historical' perspective? Know the history.

The point I agree on synthetics with those who dislike them is that they were supposed to be this miraculous savior. JUST 11 fatalities? What if ONE of those JUST 11? Just 12 this year, was yours?

Lets wait and see what the 5 year average is. Also, like someone has said before, what about the horses that have suffered a new breed of injury? THAT study shows an alarming increase in those types of career ending injuries. No problem for the Black Type winners colts/horse and mare/fillies, they just go to the breeding shed. What about the geldings, the claimers?

The trainers and owners? Well considering any number of these animals were 2 year olds, stakes horses and WERE healthy try to blame someone else.

Amateur handicapper? Yep, because just about all the hard core handicappers and gamblers who keep this game going dislike it.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Amateurcapper — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 17:32:49 GMT

Shawn,

Your points re: Lukas are well taken.

I have issue with him, and you if you agree with him, that the Triple Crown should be altered in any way. Any TC win with longer gaps between races could never compare to the accomplishments of the 11 prior winners.

I challenge your respect for tradition in horse racing when you suggest changing the Triple Crown just to get another TC winner or to increase the chances of seeing RACHEL in the Belmont S. That would be tantamount to racetracks switching from dirt to synthetic main tracks.

Rant over.

As for your assertion re: fatalities at Del Mar vs. Saratoga there is a relatively recent article, mostly about Del Mar/SoCal racing that supports your statement. There was a statistic credited to The Saratogan that Saratoga had lost only 1 horse in two years vs. 23 (11 in '08, 12 up to 9/5/09 when the article was written) at Del Mar. A startling comparison, but the more intriguing comparison is the old Del Mar dirt main track vs. Del Mar w/ Polytrack.

Del Mar still may be better off w/ Polytrack...the seaside track averaged 15.6 fatalities on the old dirt track from 2002-06. The first year w/ Polytrack in '07 there were just 11.

In three years, an average of 11.3 fatalities certainly is an improvement on the 15.6 average in the five years before Polytrack. The track, the stastics bear out, has done right by the horses.

The question now is, can the trainers and owners make positive changes to keep their athletes healthy?

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Shawn P — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 22:40:28 GMT

Pam S, Apparently, LOL. He believes like many of us that the experiment is over. As soon as the money is available they'll start tearing them up and replacing them with dirt. He and a lot of others haven't made a secret of that.

He's won twice as many BC races than any other trainer, 18, as well as being second in more also leads with total entries. He would love to run the colt in the BC as he said, IF it were at CD or Belmont.

As far as the Travers? He's run in it MANY times, won it with Thunder Gulch and Corporate Report and anyone in racing knows he holds it in high esteem.

Actually when he suggested spreading out the time between the TC races to keep the fields together (and was ridiculed, but maybe we'd have had RA in the Belmont or a TC winner by now) he suggested a FOUR race series in this published quote: “You keep the Travers Stakes where it is in late August and you have four — or a Grand Slam,” said Lukas, who has won more Triple Crown races than any other living trainer."

So I'm sure it pains him and a lot of others who don't believe that synthetics are the answer and cause a different type of injury, to make the decision to not pursue that big purse.

I would say to most in racing the comparison of the far greater number of fatalities at Del Mar vs Saratoga over the last two years is so startling and since the breeding hasn't caught up to the surface, they may have legitimate questions and concerns.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Pam S. — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 00:15:36 GMT

Shawn P.,

I never knew what Lukas' feelings about synthetics were. Apparently he doesn't like them.

What I based my comment on is that he has won a lot of BC races (though not many lately) and always seemed to support and care about the event. I know it's the same with the TC, but the Travers?? When did he run a horse in that? I can't recall.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Shawn P — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:03:51 GMT

Pam, he's not hidden the fact that he doesn't like the synthetics.

He was skeptical about taking his juveniles there last year and his ties to California racing? Don't really exist any longer for the most part. Sure he has friends and a little bit of family there but otherwise?

Bill and Bob will consider his advice strongly and if it has ANY negativity in the bigger plan, the colt won't go is my bet. The older horses? Maybe. But anyone who knows Wayne or even knows of him realizes that the 'Classics' (TC and Travers) are the focus of his 'program'.

In addition to the comment Bryan quoted (mild public statement) he said earlier this year:

"The synthetic track's a nightmare. You know that hot line that they have ... if you've got a gambling problem, you call it? Well, synthetics will take care of that. You can disband that line now. They'll cure the gamblers," Lukas said. "And it's not doing what it's supposed to do. The injuries are just changing a little bit. You get different kinds of injuries. ... It is not the cure-all on the injuries thing. We're always going to have that a little bit."

So glean what you will from that comment, pretty obvious it seems.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Amateurcapper — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 07:21:43 GMT

@nonnonheinous,

Just because a blog is written in a certain "spirit", doesn't mean it shouldn't be challenged.

Your point was one that should have been asked.

As far as synthetics, the Pro-ride had major issues early in the winter meeting. There was a string of five breakdowns in five days, including three fatalities, which prompted a "summit meeting" between Pro-ride's founder IAN PEARSE and SoCal trainers. Here were a few quotes from February's Bloodhorse article by Lenny Shulman or you can copy the following and read it for yourself (www.bloodhorse.com/.../socal-trainers-knock-pro-ride-surface):

Bob Baffert, one of the earliest critics of California’s synthetic surfaces, attended the meeting and noted, “The majority of trainers do not like this surface now. You have to train differently over it, and it’s tough on young horses. I’m doing well, and I still don’t like them,” Baffert, who won two Breeders’ Cup races over the surface in October, said.

(Darrell) Vienna, who was at one time supportive of synthetic surfaces “based on what I thought could happen,” stated, “They’re no good. The promises at the beginning were they were safe, consistent, maintenance-free, and all-weather. They are not safe, they’re not maintenance-free, they’re not consistent, and they can’t take water. None of it is true.”

My take is that synthetics, like Pro-ride, developed and used in other countries don't have anywhere near the traffic that major American race tracks do in the morning...then there's the pounding of racing added in the afternoon.

IMHO, there may be no surface in the world that can handle the elements and the amount of wear from workouts and racing that American tracks put their main tracks through.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Pam S. — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 17:07:51 GMT

I am behind the times; I had not read that the BC might not be in the plans for the exciting 2YO Dublin. I think there will be careful consideration of the final decision, though. DWL has such strong ties to the Breeders' Cup and to California, I can't see Santa Anita's surface stopping him. And long-time clients of his own the horse, right?

Re: Barbara Banke

You are right, Queen Fa, she should not be treated like an appendage of her husband. I hope and expect that Ms. Banke will make her own decision, based on input from the trainer, as to whether Hot Dixie Chick will contest the Juvenile Fillies.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Amateurcapper — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 02:25:04 GMT

@ Ghostzapper,

Breathe in...then breathe out. Repeat 10 times. Try to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative thoughts.

The reason you're so passionate about your comment is that you care about seeing top horses run in such a great event. The Breeders' Cup won't be destroyed by the extra races, but it will have a detrimental impact on juvenile male and female main track performances as 3y.o.'s. It's too much, too soon.

In California, the top races pre-BC were the Norfolk S. and the Oak Leaf S. Now those two races, which are very competitive races each year, are preps for another extremely difficult race (Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies, respectively) around two turns That's just too many miles, at 100% effort, for young legs to overcome with a very short rest before training needs to begin for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks trails.

Look back to STREET SENSE...he almost didn't make the Derby because he just hadn't recovered from the BC Juvenile win until he started in the Tampa Bay Derby in March (won by a nose).

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

@ Turk — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 02:13:10 GMT

Thanks for the kind words and for taking the time to check in.

I agree...I heard a saying that truly great horses can run on broken glass. The best horses, in a perfect world, will all line up in the best race late in the year to settle HOY, as the Smith-Barney ad from years back said, EARN IT.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Amateurcapper — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 02:09:24 GMT

@ LEON,

No doubt BEYER makes a good point aout JJ sending RACHEL to tough spots. Her body of work this year is something special, as you wrote.

That said, ZENYATTA had more to lose running in a G.1 in the U.S. vs. older males earlier than the BC Classic. The only other race that could have enhanced and not detracted from her accomplishments is the Dubai World Cup.

RACHEL rose to the challenge in the Preakness and again in the Haskell vs. 3y.o. males. Those are two very prestigious races for sophomores. Personally, I believe the Woodward posed a huge risk to her reputation as the boys entered weren't exactly multiple G.1 winning monsters. Like a champion does, she scored despite a challenging post, vs. a concerted opening 1/4 mile attack, against a closer at the who'd won once at the G.1 level. But no one in the Woodward field has ever been considered a champion-caliber racehorse. And, it's a good thing she carried 118 lb. vs. 126 for MACHO AGAIN.

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Amateurcapper — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 01:55:25 GMT

@ rowner,

Did you spell that name right? Shouldn't it be DOWNER?

All kidding aside, I appreciate the contrarian view to this piece.

Look, we can't change venues this year. Let's make the best of the party!

One question, will you enjoy the BC if CD happens to be a sloppy mess, which it has been in the past???

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Amateurcapper — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 01:49:40 GMT

@ phillip,

You make a compelling point...I guess the question really is, does one race vs. the accepted best in the world or the body of work make a HOY? Certainly, if ZENYATTA defeats SEA THE STARS in the Classic, I'd vote her HOY even though RACHEL won so many G.1's. But, no one's giving me a vote :-)!

re: Breeders' Cup is Half Full

Ghostzapper — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 18:10:21 GMT

It's hard to get excited about the BC when it's being run on "plastic" AGAIN. Whoever made that decision to run on "plastic" two years in a row should be fired. Come to think of it, whoever made the decision to increase the amount of races from 7 should be fired. Idiotic decisions that may ultimately destroy the BC.