Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

LDP — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 21:38:41 GMT

I can't think of anything else then, all I remember is that race was MUDDY!

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 05:47:13 GMT

@ datflippinrabbit,

RIP VAN WINKLE will go in the Classic, but MASTERCRAFTSMAN is reportedly being pointed to the Marathon...so maybe you're right, their competiion may see only their European rumps.

Thanks for taking the time to read/comment.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 05:43:59 GMT

@ Oneeyedpirate,

Thanks for stopping by and commenting.

Unfortunately, as an old deck hand would understand, that talented ship has sailed. RACHEL's resting. SEA THE STARS has retired.

You will see SUMMER BIRD in the BC Classic and a buddy o' mine says this guys the nuts and should be respected big time in the Classic.

Don't push ZENYATTA's connections. They'll make the right decision on their own, not because we scream for it.

My money's on Z going in the Classic as of today, for what that's worth.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 05:37:05 GMT

@ Pickem Pete,

Difference of opinions...that's what makes talking about these magnificent animals so entertaining. Thanks for taking the time to comment. So if you don't like LOOKIN AT LUCKY, who are you lookin at?

Personally, I think the the MAIDEN colt MAKE MUSIC FOR ME was a horrible proposition vs. multiple winners in the Breeders' Futurity. His good 4th in that race says volumes for LOOKIN AT LUCKY who's still not putting out 100%. HURRICANE IKE, well he was a longshot there as he was here and ran like one. Nothing should be gleaned from that effort when judging LUCKY.

Let me know your horse(s).

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 05:26:26 GMT

@ Pam S.,

I welcome your comments. While I may not agree with every comment, each is considered respectfully and the reply as researched as can be.

SEA THE STARS' defection will probably keep me at home to watch the big races...he was the only reason left for me to splurge for the pricey admission.

Maybe his name should have been DONTBLINKORULLMISSTHESTAR :-)!!!

But seriously, he's danced a lot of dances, like RACHEL did. SEA THE STARS won an incredible 6 G.1's in Europe this year...the most CURLIN won in back-to-back HOY honors was 4 last year, INVASOR won 4 in his HOY campaign (6 straight from '06-'07), SAINT LIAM also took 4 in '05, GHOSTZAPPER only 3 in his HOY campaign. SEA THE STARS is too special to take a chance with.

I do share your dismay at the continuation of early retirements. Realistically, we may never have seen SEA THE STARS in person even if he'd raced at age 4. He's Europe's treasure and for us to admire from afar (or via video!).

For international prestige, the Arc win will always trump the BC Classic or BC Turf. The Dubai World Cup may have already surpassed the BC Classic in international prestige. As much as you and I love U.S. racing, the international community looks down their collective noses at racing here with their best horses when their "second string" can win the BC Classic and BC Turf last year.

There's probably a very lucrative deal in place to send him to stud...in the end it's always about the Benjamins.

Thanks again for taking the time to comment.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 04:59:22 GMT

@ Matthew W.,

That's quite a list you've compiled...many will have very big shots in their respective events.

I'm not sure what to think about the BC Classic at this point...COLONEL JOHN is a personal favorite, but losing to GITANO HERNANDO was a serious indictment on him and U.S. (SoCal)horses...RIP VAN WINKLE and ZENYATTA look like the top of that crop but EINSTEIN has had success in SoCal and I will give CJ and RICHARD'S KID another chance with decent, recent experience on the track. This year's race looks wide open to me.

BRUCE'S DREAM disappointed me a bit in his Cal Cup loss...would appear a bit over his head in the Breeders' Cup. CALIFORNIA FLAG is in good form but will wait until the field is known in the Turf Sprint.

MUSIC NOTE looks like stronger filly this year...that last win in the Beldame was soooo easy. Didn't beat much, but did it the way a G.1 filly should. She's a 1/2 to a G.1 winning turf miler who was very competitive vs. the boys. If the Pro-ride continues to be kind to turf types, watch out for her breeding to move her even farther forward from her recent win and her 3rd last year in the Ladies Classic.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 04:46:55 GMT

@ LDP,

Took a look at the Hawthorne Gold Cup...no dropped whip there either.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

datflippinrabbit — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:18:28 GMT

Given the title of this blog they will see beyond the stars,they'll see the tails of Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftman.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Oneeyedpirate — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 01:48:47 GMT

I would like to see the Zenyatta camp declare their horse for the Classic and challenge the owners of Sea of Stars, Rachel Alexander and Summer Bird to bring their best game to the track and settle the debate in the arena where it belongs.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Pickem Pete — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 22:20:46 GMT

SOOOOO, How did those west coast 2 yr olds do this weekend at Keeneland? Lookin at Lucky is nothing special

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Pam S. — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 15:19:25 GMT

Well, given the title of this blog, it seems an appropriate place to comment on the retirement of Sea the Stars. I'm disappointed he won't be coming to the BC, but the trainer had stated clearly that if the horse ran in the Arc, that would be it for the year. As it turns out, that's it, period.

That is the trouble with great horses these days, IMO. They are just that, great, but here and gone so fast they're like shooting stars. I read that the British press described the youthful owner of Sea the Stars is "immeasurably wealthy." So unless a soundness issue is involved, I'm not sure why the horse can't run another season. He could try to conquer the U.S. or run in Dubai in 2010, or he could have a less ambitious campaign, whatever .... Why the rush to stud?

I know this will elicit the usual admonitions about "the owner can do what he wants, it's his horse." (Or at least it would if it was on one of the other blogs.) I understand that, but still wanted to express my thoughts.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Matthew W — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 15:17:23 GMT

Blind Luck looks real good....Zenyatta duh!.....Gayego looked lights out/will play him over Zensational....Colonel John/Richards Kid are playbacks.....would love if Bruce's Dream draws into the turf sprint.....Ventura......Lookin At Lucky....that's my West Coast List---turf races are gonna be Euro-Tough, if the East Coast doesn't come through USA is gonna get a butt kickin'--again! Also if Zenyatta goes in the filly race---Music Note and friends are in big trouble--again!

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

LDP — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:19:48 GMT

The only other race I can think the lost whip could be in then was Awesome Gem's last out in the Hawthorn Gold Cup.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Pam S. — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 17:17:33 GMT

Mr. Amateurcapper,

And thanks for your answer. I'm looking forward to seeing this exciting colt in person next month.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 05:39:01 GMT

@LDP and Rachel A (for real),

I went back to look at the Beldame...JOHN VELAZQUEZ didn't drop the stick, he just never saw the need to uncock it. He kept his hands in the same place they were the entire race. MUSIC NOTE was that much better than UNBRIDLED BELLE. That race was nothing more than a workout that happened to be during a race. A really good horse in an overmatched field makes the jockey look like a genius 100% of the time.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 05:24:58 GMT

@ Pam S.,

I know, it's hard to project juveniles forward. Even tougher when you throw the Dubai money into the equation.

However, I think that LOOKIN AT LUCKY's owners are wealthy enough that they wanna roll the dice to see how far this colt can take them. They're old enough to have amassed a small fortune, yet young enough to take risks. It's not often this kind comes along and I believe they are very cognizant of that. It's gonna have to be Mega Millions type money to get this group to flinch.

Thanks for reading/commenting!

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 05:17:06 GMT

@tvnewsbadge,

Thanks for your comments.

As for "continuing to beat the horse", what race are you referring to? Of course, the jockeys should put the stick away when clear of the field. MIKE SMITH did with ZENYATTA on Saturday, a champion with 12 prior wins without a loss, but even she despite 12 prior wins without a loss started to prick her ears and lose her focus while LETHAL HEAT and COCOA BEACH were both in stiff drives and making up the deficit. The jockeys just can't seem to win on this point.

RE: Presitge and fan interest, I believe the Breeders' Cup will always have compelling stories. The way I see it, when someone doesn't come the door is open for another to step up.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 18:33:41 GMT

Rachel A(for real),

I appreciate your comments and apologize if I offended your sensibility regarding horse racing. Your point about the whips is terrfic. Right now, for better or worse, they're "legal" encouragement. It'd be better to do away with them completely instead of going to different whips or try to regulate how much is "excessive" whipping.

They've moved to whips that are easier on the horses in Canada.

I wasn't trying to glamorize the whips, but I did want to make a point about how GOMEZ got LOOKIN AT LUCKY's attention. Having heard my share of stretch runs, the crosses and whips are used when the "chirp" and the "screams" just aren't enough. GOMEZ is easily identifiable from his stretch run mechanics when he uses a cross...ie. his "signature". There's a reason he's as sought out as BAILEY was in his day...he's the best. Up to now, the owners and trainers who use him don't seem to mind his tactics. I'll trust the judgment of names like KATHY WALSH, CARLA GAINES, BOBBY FRANKEL, BOB BAFFERT, EOIN HARTY, WINSTAR FARMS, JUDDMONTE FARMS, AHMED ZAYAT, MIKE PEGRAM, etc.

As for BAILEY wanting whips banned, that is a noble pursuit and would be best to showcase the innate ability of the horses. He's tied for the winningest BC Classic jockey (5 times) and he used the whip rather sparingly relative to his counterparts. Then again, he was usually on the best horse anyway.

When I was young, I remember a stakes level sprinter named MR. PRIME MINISTER trained by BUSTER MILLERICK (I later found out he trained NATIVE DIVER). He always raced without a whip. Career totals: 75-20-10-10 including the G.3 Los Angeles H. at age 7! So, it can be done.

However, if the whips are taken away, the reins and crosses will become more intense when you would rather have the jockeys go only "hands and heels". Sport, equine or human, is inherently aggressive and athletes are pushed to their limits.

I'll leave you to ponder, do you think your namesake, RACHEL, or ZENYATTA has had a better year and/or career?

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

LDP — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 17:38:50 GMT

Rachel A,

I believe the jock you are reffering to is the one who rode Music Note int the Beldame.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Pam S. — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 17:11:29 GMT

The only problem with hitching your wagon to a 2-year-old star is that there is like a 50-50 chance that he (or she) will be purchased by Middle Eastern interests. So they might win the Juvenile and then you won't see them for 6 months or more. The sheiks have a synthetic track now, too, so wouldn't they especially want horses that run well at SA? And we all know their offers can't be refused.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

tvnewsbadge — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 15:58:56 GMT

Certainly "the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars"

Jess Jackson and the American horse racing community have already trashed talked this year's edition into total insignificance so the presence (or not)of Sea the Stars is not to make squat bit of difference when it comes to prestige and fan interest.

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

tvnewsbadge — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 15:45:06 GMT

Amateurcapper said "I can't remember watching a big race, that was still undecided in deep stretch, where the jockey put the stick away."

IF that's true, does that justify the jockey continuing to beat the horse when the race HAS BEEN put away?

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 15:43:13 GMT

@ Racingfan,

Thanks for taking the time to read/comment.

Obviously we share the enthusiasm. BTW, LUCKY's 1/2 brother KENSAI goes in the G.2 Jerome today trying to add to the family legacy.

Enjoy the ride!

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Rachel A(for real) — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 13:02:21 GMT

This is very politely responding to you, with all good intentions:

It was the "signature" part that got me...and we just saw a big race, geesh I can't remember who it was, major brain cramp, last weekend where the jock lost the whip and the horse won by his good riding.

Jerry Bailey believes whips should be banned. An animal bred to do something does not need coersion. An animal with no talent or desire for the game shouldn't be in the game.

I love jockeys, appreciate their hard work and best intentions, so this is not an attack, just an observation, How many races has the jockey been out of sync with the horse's stride? The whip ill-timed, his body posture back as the horse moves forward...Or the whip distresses the horse and gets his mind off the race and onto the whip?

Who cares if it's a "big" race? A horse runs with the talent he's born with...a horse running his best effort deserves a fair ride, not a whip.

I worked years ago for a small 20 horse racing stable...mucking, walking, rubbed, wrapped, iced, tubbed, exercise. I ride dressage, hunter and have shown other disciplines. Bred and trained Arabian horses.

I breed top calibre police and search and rescue K-9's...who need ZERO compulsion to do the job they're bred to do.

;-)

re: Will the Breeders' Cup Be Able to See Beyond Sea the Stars?

Amateurcapper — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 06:21:07 GMT

@ MEH,

Thanks so much for taking the time to comment...I love to read dissenting opinions. Was there one that caught your eye this weekend?

I believe your theory holds a lot of water. I'll take it a step further to say that the next Triple Crown winner will come out of the New York juvenile graded stakes races on dirt. That seasoning helped SECRETARIAT, SEATTLE SLEW, and AFFIRMED. However, there are always exceptions that prove the rule and I believe that LOOKIN AT LUCKY is exceptional.

No doubt that the Breeders' Futurity can give solid contenders...last year's winner SQUARE EDDIE finished 2nd, runner-up TERRAIN was 4th, and show horse PIONEEROF THE NILE finished 5th.

NOBLE'S PROMISE (1st) and AIKENITE (2nd) are solid contenders coming out of the race this year.

I believe that the Pro-ride edge that LOOKIN' AT LUCKY has, along with what I view as untapped potential, makes him the solid favorite for the BC Juvenile. IMHO, with his next start known (if all goes as planned), he's the best "future wager" prospect for the Breeders' Cup, about four weeks out.

As for Bob Baffert and the Triple Crown, I think I read somewhere that he's debating a change in the synthetic-only preparation. I believe that LUCKY will run on broken glass...that's how good he appears to be. LUCKY is a really good colt who happened to be reared sprinting on synthetics because that's the juvenile game and SoCal is where his owner/trainer are based. PIONEEROF THE NILE was switched from Bill Mott to Bob Baffert because of the synthetics, which was a big reason for his juvenile and 3y.o. success.

PIONEEROF THE NILE was started long on the turf from the get-go by Bill Mott, so that means he was all distance in both performance and breeding and may have had some foot issues the turf/synthetics would have helped with.

As for PIONEER's Derby loss to improbable MINE THAT BIRD...I think the subsequent "flights" and crash landings of the Derby winner are proof that the slop made for a "once-in-a-lifetime" moment. Look back at the tape...PIONEER was injured on that sloppy track; note how he was getting out down the lane after he got the lead. The injury was probably undetectable prior to the Preakness.