Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

LDP — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 00:14:02 GMT

Mark,

From what I've heard QR will be rested until the the Met Mile. Personally, if the race was still held on dirt I would love to see him go, but after such an amazing performace after a bit of a layoff, traveling to a foreign country, to run over a surface he's never raced over, seems a bit much to ask of him.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

Mark — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 19:09:05 GMT

Any chance we will see Quality Road in Dubai? I would love to see that, but not sure if they will risk trying to load him on an airplane, but sure would be great to see him win the world's richest purse.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 06:46:04 GMT

Saratoga AJ

Summer Bird’s time in the 2009 BC Classic was very good as you can see when comparing the dirt races in the 2008 BC to the comparable 2009 dirt races (both cards at Santa Anita).

• 2009 Classic Zenyatta 2.00.62

• 2008 Classic Raven’s Pass 1.59.27

• 2009 Lady’s Classic Life is Sweet 1.48.58

• 2008 Lady’s Classic Zenyatta 1.46.85

• 2009 Juvenile Vale of York 1.43.48

• 2008 Juvenile Midshipman 1.40.94

• 2009 Juv Filly She Be Wild 1.43.8

• 2008 Juv Filly Stardom Bound 1.40.99

• 2009 Sprint Dancing In Silks 1.08.14

• 2008 Sprint Midnight Lute 1.07.08

• 2009 Dirt Mile Furthest Land 1.35.5

• 2008 Dirt Mile Albertus Maximus 1.33.41

As you can see, every one of the 2008 BC races on dirt at Santa Anita were faster than the comparable 2009 races. In fact, Santa Anita was extremely fast for the 2008 BC. The average race time differential was about two seconds, which translates to the track being about two seconds faster. This would mean that after making the appropriate variable adjustments, Zenyatta would have literally blown away the 2008 field by running her race in 1.58 and change (Zen’s Beyer was 112......Raven’s Pass’s Beyer was 110 even though he ran the faster race).

Overall, the 2008 race times were dynamite. Zen’s Lady’s Classic was the 2nd fastest ever to Inside Information’s 1.46.15, Midshipman’s Juvenile was the fastest Juvenile all time, Stardom Bound’s Juvenile Fillies was the fastest Juvenile Fillies all time, Albertus Maximus’s Dirt Mile was the fastest all time (only three runnings), and Midnight Lute’s Sprint was the fastest all time.

It would be argued by some that the 2008 horses were better overall that the 2009 horses, but I don’t think that is necessarily true. Midshipman competed both years. He was dynamite in 2008, but a bust as the favourite in his race in 2009.

Summer Bird also ran his BCC fast enough to win the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup and if his time in this year’s Classic was adjusted appropriately, he would have been in a win photo for the 2008 Classic.

Who is better.......Summer Bird or Quality Road........? They both have their strengths as well as a few areas of concern, but they are definitely top class. I hope that SB returns sound and will not be effected by his injury.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

MTBFan(still) — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 20:29:08 GMT

Amazing how everything somehow manages to track back to Rachel and Zenyatta. Rachel/Zenyatta/QR racing each other? That would be interesting, because Quality Road is more Rachel's type than Zenyatta's. They both have to get to the lead or close to it, and they are both "off" classic distance. I wonder what they'd do with the closer Zenyatta? (I am a Rachel purist, but I'm speculating to remove some bias before April 9th. IF the horses get there). So, back to QR, his race in the Donn was revealing, considering his layoff, too. He tucked them away, easily. However, the field wasn't "on the level". Good, but not enough to push him in. Will he be able to keep his leading running style when he meets higher competition? This is just speculation--I just entered this game. :p

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

Saratoga AJ — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 17:45:33 GMT

LAZMANNICK:

Summer Bird's BC Classic was run in good time?

Not so sure of that when you consider he would have finished about ninth or so if he was in the 2008 BC Classic the year before. (Zenyatta would have finished about sixth...about even with or just behind Go Between).

The 2008 BC classic was run about 1 1/2 seconds faster. That is a substantial difference. Calculates to approx. 7 1/2 lengths.

Curlin, who was nosed out for 3rd in 2008, raced in it one year too early. He would have won by about 2 lengths this year. The bottom line is the 2009 BC classic was NOT an exceptionally fast race.

I do hope Summer Bird returns to the races in the same form he exhibited last year. I believe that QR is better than SB, plainly a faster horse, but he still has to prove it. I hope they do hook up a couple of times in the coming year.

This could be a racing fan's dream year if all the players stay sound.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

Slew — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 13:57:56 GMT

Quality Road is proving to be a serious contender.....in Florida. Let's see how well he does this year elsewhere. I thought he was unbelievable in the sprint at Saratoga last year, and really boxed in at the Travers. It's early in the year, and time will tell how well he really can run. I do not, however, view him as a super horse. We'll see.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

LDP — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 02:27:45 GMT

I hope SB comes back well. Ritchey was the trainer of AA, so maybe he can make some magic happen with SB too.

Danylson, I will say that he is a freak. It takes a special horse to run the figures he has on a regular basis. However, this is a deep crop that should test his limits. Some have distance doubts with him, I do not. He can rate, which is a huge asset. If he can stay healthy and continue to run those mindboggling figures he will have gone from freak to super horse.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

marktoothaker — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 01:11:37 GMT

As mentioned above on the great performance of Summer Bird last year I am very worried that we may not see the same horse this year. Leaving him at track to recover and now the change of trainers is a bad combo for a horse that I loved to route for last year. I hope Im wrong and he comes back better than ever.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

ABZ — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 00:01:20 GMT

He definitely dazzled in the Donn. I do think there are still many questions to answer, however, before I rate him as highly as Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Nice piece on the talented Quality Road.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

Danylson — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 23:59:50 GMT

Quality Road is a freak, he needs to race about 7 times this year though, wins in the Met mile, Whitney, Woodward, Suburban, and Jockey Club Gold Cup and then....the classic!!!!! America needs it and so those his fans !!!

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

Danylson — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 23:52:53 GMT

Quality Road is a Serious horse, he was not even breathing hard after that win, I respect Summer Bird but Quality Road is imposing and looks to be on the verge of more breath taking performances!

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

gary at rough creek — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 19:21:31 GMT

LAZMANNICK,

I agree, and I think you are on to something.

I wrote recently - on another subject - about my bemusement and disappointment regarding how MTB was generally received after his Derby victory and 2nd in The Preakness and 3rd in the Belmont.

Give the Derby winner and triple Crown performer his due.

I'm afraid the "anointed" ones broke down or were bested last year, and it gets in the way of objectivity for some. Hopefully we will have an enlightening 2010.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

LDP — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 17:20:48 GMT

Laz,

Yes, the track bias was in play when QR ran a record breaking performance in the FL Derby, however that was not so on Donn Day. I do agree with you about the field, it was less than stellar, but to be honest, no field for the last couple of years has been stellar. The only two fields, even on paper, that looked good for the handicap division was the BCC, and still many people discount that race, just because over the last two years it has produce bias results, against the best dirt older males in the country. That being said, since you like Zenyatta so much, let me say I am not disregaurding her victory, she won, she won fair and sqaure, and nothing any of us do is ever going to change that. Back to point though, in your average G1 race ther has been a shortage of quality horses. So, how I determine a good horse from an average, or contender from pretender, is overall times and fractional times. This is why RA impressed me so much, because even though she beat on weaker competition her times for her races were rediculously fast for how easily she was running. I do take into account track bias or souping up a track, which is why QR impressed me in the Donn. His competition was way outclassed true, but he beat his own track record, that was set over a speedway in the FL, over a track that had actually been play a bit slow. That is why his win to me was impressive.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

LDP — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 17:11:08 GMT

Gary,

I don't think your being arguementative, neither am I. We both have differing opinion, though, I do think you are in the minority that thinks the wet track has nothing to do with SB's performance. I know quite a few people do believe that Summer Bird is the superior horse at 10 furlongs and over mud. I am not in any way trying to take away from what SB did, in fact I picked him in both the Travers and JCGC for those reasons. I expected him to actually win by about three, instead he won by a hard fought length. Could it be coincidence, and just that he was rapidly improving yes it could, but even with those reasons, I would say, because I picked him for this reason too, that he was peaking, while QR was just getting back into the swing of things. IMO all things equal, at 10 furlongs on a dry track, QR wins.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

LAZMANNICK — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 17:07:02 GMT

Summer Bird can run on any type of non-turf surface, fast dirt, sloppy dirt and synthetics (his BCC was actually a good race and in good time). To say that he was at an advantage because of the sloppy track in the Travers and JCGC is doing the horse a disservice. He simply was the best horse that day and no other 3 y-o including Rachel would have beaten him. QR so far has demonstrated that he can run on fast dirt and sloppy dirt. In his sloppy dirt races he still finished 2nd in the JCGC (a 110 Beyer) and 3rd in the Travers (a 103 Beyer). He was simply beaten by a better horse. If Summer Bird comes back the same horse he was in 2009 after his injury and with a new trainer, and faces QR, it would be a crap shoot to see who the winner would be. I for one wouldn’t bet against either one because they both have demonstrated above average abilities. It’s funny how QR wins the Donn against nothing in relative ease and he’s already being considered a super horse and SB did something that only Easy Goer has done, win the Belmont, Travers and the JCGC and he isn’t considered by many as at least QR’s equal.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

gary at rough creek — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 14:27:27 GMT

LDP,

I'm not trying to be argumentative here, but you're logic is faulty in evaluating Summer Bird's performances last year. I paid particular attention to him from his first start. He was a dramatically improving 3 YO regardless of surface moisture.

It is a coincidence that he then had to run over wet surfaces. By saying this, I mean that he neither moves up nor moves down on a wet track...he runs his race no matter what.

I use the internal fractions of his races and the final times - even of the races he lost - as further proof. I see no statistically significant improvement on an off track.

Further evidence for this position is his very credible 4th behind Zenyatta in the Classic last year...on "plastics".

A great horse - or even a very good horse - is one that doesn't need to bring his track with him. We'll see what QR can do this year in that regard. And also in that regard, is any one else wondering why they would wait until the Met Mile to race this horse again?

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

LAZMANNICK — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 04:52:16 GMT

The best since the Bid.......How some people never seem to get it. Quality Road may very well develop into something special and then again he might not. So far he has beaten ONE G-1 WINNER in Captain Candyman Can (that G-1 win was through disqualification). As Gun Bow said, the track record at GP doesn’t mean much at this point because of the relatively short history of the current track records at GP. Let's see him defeat some multiple G-1 horses and let's see him do it away from Gulfstream. True, he has two G-1 wins, but they were both at Gulfstream and if I recall the Florida Derby was enhanced by a track speed bias (Pletcher was very disturbed by this). The Donn victory, in terms of competition, means nothing when trying to compare him against others because it wasn’t a legitimate G-1 field. From that field, only Pass the Points, 2nd in the 2008 Woodward, and Helsink a distant 3rd in the 2007 Travers even hit the board in a G-1 race. After Quality Road wins five or six races against legitimate G-1's then maybe people can start to compare him against some of the better horses in history, but to do that now really doesn't mean much. Personally, I think he is the real deal, but he still has a lot to prove.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

marktoothaker — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 01:08:40 GMT

Fantastic performance but agree with Gunbow and others QR still has to put it together over the rest of the season to be considered on of the elite horses of all time. Beyer fig was huge and this certainly is one of the best performances of last few years only hope he can keep it up over reminder of year and get a showdon with the girls and whoever else comes out of the woodwork between now and BC

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

ctgreyhound — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 00:06:42 GMT

The goal has been set high, very high for Quality Road. It is good this early in the game to have a horse of this "quality" (no pun intended) aspire to greatness. This year seems to have all the earmarks of a very favorable year for horse racing. Let's all sit back and enjoy the ride. And away we goooooooo

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

mike williams — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 21:35:56 GMT

Quality Road is a talented horse, but he has to prove himself at the very top level of competition.He has yet to meet the others from last year's three year old crop, Friesan Fire, Summebird,Mine that Bird, Musket Man,Rachel Alexandria, and Zenyatta.As far as the comments that Quality Road would give the ladies all they could handle, I believe that it is the other way around, whereby the ladies would give Quality Road all that he could handle and more.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

LDP — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 21:13:36 GMT

Gary,

Three out of four of SB's best performances came over an off track. In the Haskell, yes, he ran second, but he ran second to another mud loving horse in Rachel Alexandra. The Travers was muddy, and he blew away the field, the JCGC was also a muddy track, where he again won. Now I don't think that a wet track moves QR down so much as it move SB up. SB is bred to relish the slop, and with two wins and one second coming over that kind of going, it is safe to say he relishes the mud. QR, IMO, does not mind the mud, but is better when running over a dry dirt track. Now, I am not say SB cannot run over a dirt surface, his Belmont proves he can, but when he and QR are matched on a muddy track, the advantage goes to SB, because he does not just tolerate mud, he relishes it, while QR runs just about the same or a little worse on a wet track than he does a dry fast track.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

gary at rough creek — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 20:10:21 GMT

GunBow,

Thanks for including the points regarding QR's track records and the re-configuration of the Gulfstream Park track. Puts things into a more meaningful perspective.

And I just can't accept Beyer Speed figures any more, especially comparing any west coast track with east coast tracks, and Gulfstream Park in particular.

LDP, how do you know that an off track moves Summer Bird up and QR down? I see no direct evidence of this. I saw Summer Bird as an improving 3 YO colt last year, regardless of the track or moisture content. Summer Bird swept past a hard running Dunkirk and Mine That Bird in The Belmont on a dry track. QR beat a hard running Dunkirk down in Florida as younger 3 YO.

That's about all the evidence there is, and the conclusion that Summer Bird moves up on an off track seems tenuous at best.

I want to see all the best 3 YO's from last year come back in top form this year. I include QR in that group, as well as the two Birdstone Boys and Musket Man. The latter three are real 10 furlong horses, and QR may turn into one this year too. All of them, if they are healthy four year olds, will add quite a bit of intrigue to any race that includes either RA, Zenyatta, or hopefully both of these females. Should be fun and enlightening to watch.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

LDP — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 15:55:58 GMT

ACRS,

I never said that I myself believe he is the most brilliant, talented, or any other adjective used to describe great, since the Bid. I think he could very well prove to be one of the best since the Bid, but I only said "Many think he is the most talented horse since the great Spectacular Bid." Never in that sentence did I say I think he is. Personally he is probably one of the top five most naturally talented horses I have seen. I say this because I've only been watching racing for about ten years, and didn't really start getting into it until I was probably 13. In the time I've been watching racing the greatest horse I had seen before RA or Zenyatta was Curlin. Afleet Alex, Bernardini, Smarty Jones, and a few other are also part of the list I have seen, but none of them stuck around long enough for me to really judge their greatness. So to me, QR is one of the most naturally talented horse I've ever seen. He is probably the most brilliant horse I have ever seen, and now this year he and a few others will get a chance to show me if they are amoung the greatest horses I will ever see.

BlueHen,

I was terrified watching the BC gate scene unfold. The only other time I can remember being so terrified was when AA nearly fell in the Preakness. Both instances seemed to stop my heart for a few beats. When I learned of his refusal to board the plane, I too was wondering if he would ever race again, but as seen, some horses can overcome that kind of experience, which again to me is another mark of potential greatness.

Tracy,

I agree. He has one of the kindest eyes I've ever seen. I his standing photos, he looks so calm yet so interested. He looks like a smart horse, he just seems to have that typical TB hotbloodedness going on. I have a chestnut TB, who is the nicest horse I've ever had, he is literally a huge teddy bear. But, like QR you have to be very patient with him, because he too can be spooked or upsetted very easily.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

Tracy — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 14:56:24 GMT

Despite his incident at the breeders cup,he is really a special horse and I think would be a good potential match with Zenyatta when they both retire.

re: Quality Road Dazzles in the Donn

LDP — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 14:28:24 GMT

Hello everyone, thanks for the comments.

shuttleworth, I agree. IMO if he were to run against Rachel or Zenyatta right now he give them all the can handle.

Paula, I think he is over most of his issues from last year. With the gate, I think it depends some on the gate crews' handling of him. If they don't try to rush him then he will probably be fine.

GunBow, In this post I wasn't tryint to sujest that QR was great or another Bid, so much as I was trying to say he could become great and could become another Bid. I wasn't trying to come off as apologetic about his losses to SB, just pointing out that he did very well even when almost nothing in each race was in his favor. Personally, before the Gold Cup, I had picked SB, even before the mud, when it was apparent the track would be off, I thought SB would probably win it fairly easily. It surprised me when SB beat him by a hard fought length, instead of by daylight, which is why, IMO if that track was dry, QR would be the winner. On beyers I agree with you, which is why I stated that he needs to consistently produce that effort if he is to be deemed great. I think now he could be called very good, because most of his races have produced efforts over 100 BFS, some go past 110 and he has a few that are just a point or two shy of breaking 110. I personally believe that if he has improved even slightly since last year he will prove to be both one of the greatest and brilliant horses we've seen, but that is a big if.