Graded Earnings: How Much Will It Take To Get In?

With a little more than five weeks to go until the Derby and about 10 prep races remaining, it's not a bad idea to take a quick look at the graded earnings list. Granted, there is still a lot to be decided as we hit the homestretch and defections almost always happen in the last couple of weeks, but it is still worth taking a snapshot at what the field of 20 might look like on May 1, and how much it will take to get in.

The first thing that jumps out at me about the list is the amount of money the top 20 have already accumulated. Sidney's Candy and Odysseus, who share the 19/20 spot, already have $180,000 in graded earnings. That is a fairly high number for mid-March considering the most lucrative prep races still remain and there is a good chance that several horses not currently in the top 20 will be there when the weekend is over.

All three U.S. prep races are wide-open this weekend--the Lane's End, Louisiana Derby, and Sunland Derby. With the purses in each race $500,000, $750,000, and $800,000, respectively, that means there is a possibility that five new horses could jump into the top 25 (the three first place finishers and runner-ups in the Louisiana Derby and Sunland Derby). Of the 3-year-olds racing this weekend, only Discreetly Mine (Louisiana Derby) and Conveyance (Sunland Derby) are currently in the top 20. If they were to finish third or worse, the whole Derby picture changes--as far as earnings are concerned.

And don't forget about the $2 million UAE Derby on Saturday. The first, second, and third-place finishers of that race would also earn enough to qualify for the Derby. While it is highly unlikely that all three would point for Churchill, there is a decent possibility that at least the winner would, especially if it is Godolphin's Mendip. That would possibly mean six new horses in the top 25 by the time Saturday is over.

As far as the current list goes, from what I know there are at least four horses in the top 20 that are not pointing toward the Derby--No. 2 Vale of York, No. 3 Blind Luck, No. 7 D' Funnybone, and No. 8 Devil May Care. There are also questions about No. 14 Make Music For Me (Blue Grass), No. 17 Radiohead, and No. 18 Uh Oh Bango (Arkansas Derby), but I have not read anywhere that they are not still on the trail. Taking the first four I mentioned out of the equation, that would vault Backtalk, Super Saver, Pleasant Prince, and Eskendereya into the current top 20. Eskendereya currently has $150,000 in earnings.

The question is, will $150,000 be enough this year? Right now, based on what I have outlined above, I'm not so sure. Eskendereya still has a big race remaining--the Wood Memorial on April 3--but should he finish out of the money in that race, there is the possibility that he wouldn't be in the top 20 come Derby time.

Last year, the top 13 horses had more than $200,000 in graded earnings, but the No. 20 horse, Nowhere to Hide, had only $55,500. In 2008, the number was much higher even after a few late defections. Denis of Cork, who went on to finish third in the Derby, got in as the last horse with $165,000 in graded earnings. In 2007, Imawildandcrazyguy drew in with $104,000.

Going back even further (courtesy of the good folks at Churchill Downs' media department) in 2006 it was Flashy Bull with $109,000, 2005 Going Wild ($57,250), 2004 Song of the Sword ($132,500), 2003 Ten Cents a Shine ($46,240 when there were only 17 horses entered), and 2002 Wild Horses ($100,000).

As you can see, the amount of graded earnings to qualify for the top 20 varies greatly every year. There is still a long way to go and a lot to be decided, but earnings are now something to at least start thinking about.

I'll be back on Friday afternoon with thoughts on the preps and a few World Cup races. If you are free, please join me for the live chat at noon eastern on Friday.

**Note: According to a Santa Anita press release, Todd Pletcher is now pointing Interactif toward the Blue Grass on April 10. Rafael Bejarano will stay aboard for the mount.

142 Comments

Leave a Comment:

Frank J.

Jason,

I was looking at the top 20 list when the headline on Bloodhorse listed Ice Box now at #6. It is quite interesting trying to figure out who will and won't get in. I am thinking maybe this is the year some good horses don't make the cut, would you agree? Oh and just please can you refrain from talking about Christine Daae and Point Given in your blog this week or next week or any week, please??!! She is not winning the Oaks and he's a lousy sire that never beat anyone that good, that's all you need to know right there.

24 Mar 2010 4:39 PM
Jason Shandler

lol Frank. I didnt realize I was bothering you with Christine Daae and Point Given. I went out on a limb with her and she ran a bad race. What can I say? I'd rather do that than put every new prep winner in my top 10. Anyway, I will keep her out of this blog, for you.

As for Point Given, he was a beast. I'll tell him you said hi when I go to Three Chimneys next week.

24 Mar 2010 4:56 PM
Billy's Empire

I am seing an upset in Dubai. Mendip loses to Rhiania or however you spell it, the filly in the 3 hole from DeKock's barn

24 Mar 2010 5:01 PM
Lucy

Hey Jason,

Quick off-topic question..why hasn't Quality Road had any workouts since the Donn?  Don't know if I missed that he was getting a break or if there's just no races he's pointing to in the near future or whatnot.

And I like Backtalk's chances :)  Hope he runs well and gets in!

24 Mar 2010 5:17 PM
kelso fan

Wow, what is with the derogatory comments about Point Given from Frank J?   An amazing racehorse (talk to Gary Stevens about him!) and a very good sire.

24 Mar 2010 5:33 PM
2:24

People that make disparaging comments about Point Given should be banned from this and other horse racing blogs.

24 Mar 2010 5:33 PM
Zookeeper

Jason,

Tell Point Given Hello! for me also. And if you happen to see War Chant, tell him I think of him often. Furthermore, I expect very good things from Christine this year and you can talk about her all you want. Not only is it a free country, but it is YOUR blog!

24 Mar 2010 5:34 PM
CV

Can horses be supplemented for the KY Derby as they can be for the Preakness?

24 Mar 2010 6:27 PM
GunBow

Jason, a timely article.  I hadn't even looked at the rankings list, and can't believe horses like Eskendereya, Sidney's Candy, and Odysseus are on the bubble.

It does support your stance against the bandwagon horse that just won an early prep if for no other reason than the purses for the early preps pale in comparison to the final rounds of preps.  Louisiana Derby at $750k, Sunland at $800k, and UAE Derby at $2 million could vault pretenders right into the Derby.

Financial difficulties have really affected the purses at Santa Anita.  Sideny's Candy is on the bubble even though he has won 2 grade 2 stakes races this year?  Well, it's because Santa Anita kept the purses for the San Vicente and San Felipe(and all of its stakes for that matter) at the base level of $150k needed for grade 2 races(and given most of its gr.1 races the minimum purse of $250k).  Thus, Sidney's Candy only won $90k for each of his 2 victories.

24 Mar 2010 6:28 PM
Mike Relva

FRANK J

You're a joke!

24 Mar 2010 6:45 PM
Auburnbill

Jason,

Please ignore Frank G. I checked your article today to see how you currently gauged CD's chances of still winning the Oaks. Was the Bonnie Miss simply a much-needed stakes experience, or was she just overhyped? I am asking as someone with a large future bet on her...

24 Mar 2010 6:47 PM
GunBow

I really like Saturday's card at the Fairgrounds.  The New Orleans Cap and Muniz are very competitive races featuring horses from across the country.

The Louisiana Derby is also interesting, although it boasts mainly second-tier Derby contenders.  The one La Derby horse I've seen run in person a number of times, The Program, should be able to translate his form to dirt, but I just don't think he's fast enough.

The Dubai World Cup card is loaded as always; it's nice to see 14 horses going for $10 million.  However, it's impossible not to notice how few horses from the Eastern US are entered.  It is still a mystery why horses moving from dirt to synthetic have performed so poorly while horses going from synthetic to dirt have had some notable success, like Well Armed in last year's World Cup and Albertus Maximus/Gayego in the Godolphin Mile.  Maybe trainers have sent their most versatile horses to synthetic tracks with synthetics serving as a bridge between dirt and turf?  

In my opinion, the strongest and deepest field on the night is for the $5 million Dubai Sheema, the 12 furlong turf event.  The field includes horses from all over the world; it is truly an international race.  

For those that dismiss synthetics and the horses that run on synthetics, the fact the rulers of Dubai spent $2 billion on a track w/ a synthetic surface and that the richest day in horse racing will not have any races on traditional dirt reflects that 1)Synthetics are international, 2)Many of the best horses in the world run on synthetics, 3) Synthetic racing can be very lucrative(2 Breeders Cups already and now World Cup night), 4) Synthetic surfaces are probably here to stay(although some individual tracks, like Santa Anita, might switch to dirt).

24 Mar 2010 6:52 PM
GunBow

Weird to see High Court Drama and Unusual Suspect wheeled right back in the Saturday's 12 furlong Tokyo City Cap' aftern running in last Saturday's 12 furlong San Luis Rey Cap'.  High Court Drama showed speed but then tired badly to be beaten over 20 lengths in the San Luis Rey; maybe the performance reflects that he did little running, but it could also be an indication something is amiss.  Unusual Suspect ran 5th beaten about 5 in the SL Rey, but his appearance in the Tokyo City is less surprising because he's trained by Barry Abrams, a person who would have been very comfortable training horses in the 30s(15+ starts a year).

24 Mar 2010 6:58 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Jason,

When I looked at the graded earnings list earlier this week (like you)I was surprised at two things:

-how many good horses were not in the top 20

-how much money was already given out

I am looking at Tempted to Tapit and Doubles Partner, with a sprinkle of Drosselmeyer this weekend.  In that case, it would shake up a lot of horses.  I hope we don't see a lot of defections, but they are inevitable.  

Is there any word on where Tiz the One or American Lion will make their next start?  AL is supposedly heading to the dirt (hooray!).  If Tiz the One is pointing to anything other than the Illinois Derby, he won't have much of a chance, unless he is that good or has an affinity for Keeneland's track.

Side note.... Loved Kayce Ace's debut, can't wait until she has a route race!

24 Mar 2010 7:05 PM
LAZMANNICK

Alphie's Bet will more than have enough earnings after he cleans up in the SA Derby.

24 Mar 2010 7:16 PM
Jason Shandler

All: At the bottom of the article, I updated the history of the final horses to get in going back to 2002. Last year, it was actually Nowhere to Hide getting in with only $55,500.

Lucy: They are pointing Quality Road to the Met Mile in late May. No rush for him to get back to the track. Its going to be a long campaign for him.

AuburnBill: I think she will rebound in a big way if she goes. But I dont know if she is still being pointed to the Oaks. She has no earnings. I havent heard anything on her next spot. Have you?

tcc: Thanks for the info.

24 Mar 2010 7:24 PM
Carlos in Cali

Jason, ok..I'll be your radar if you promise to pay me in cash only,lol.

seriously though, now that there's a chance of Odysseus not making it in w/out additional earnings after this weekends preps are over,they'll have no choice but to run him once more.If they do either the Wood Memorial or Ill.Derby would be the logical choices,not the damn Bluegrass.I thought they pulled him out of the 2yo in training sale because he didn't handle the synthetic track there.Any news re: their plans now?

Cornell upsets Kentucky.... experience over young athleticism.

Butler upsets Syracuse....they have a better all-around team.

24 Mar 2010 7:33 PM
Slew

Tsk, Tsk.  If only, if only Point Given had shown up for the Derby.  He was amazing in the other classics, say hello to him from me also.  You can talk about him any time you want.  Last I heard, Christine Daae and Best Actor were still wandering around Gulfstream hoof in hoof, looking for a finish line.  I'm looking forward to Mendip taking the UAE, and hope he come to KY.  Considering that most tracks have lowered their purses this year, it's difficult to make the graded earnings, especially when it's a different colt stepping up each week.  We do not seem to have any sure bets.  I need Ron to step back up in Louisiana.  There is such a good card this weekend at the Fair Grounds, added to which NOLA brewing company is having it's first annual Easter Keg Hunt on the 27th.  (conflicting, yes...free beer...ok)

24 Mar 2010 7:40 PM
Billy D.

I don't know how much it will take to get into this years Derby however Ice Box is definitely going to be on my Superfecta ticket. BTW I had the Tri in the Florida Derby and the late D.D.(thanks to D'Funnybone) I'll take a nose victory any time. I did like Rule a little bit coming into the race however since he wasn't proven at the distance I wasn't sold on him and their was a lot of speed in the race. I did not like Dutrow's horse at all. I still haven't seen a definitive Derby performance yet however Lookin' at lucky bears watching.

24 Mar 2010 7:46 PM
Jason Shandler

lol Slew. Good one.

Carlos: I like Cornell +9, not to win. I like St. Mary's again, to win. And Northern Iowa, again.

24 Mar 2010 7:48 PM
Matthew W

Also like Alphies Bet but if Lookin At Lucky goes, good luck winning! I think Alphies Bet is for real--shame if he does not make it to Kentucky.....

24 Mar 2010 8:21 PM
Auburnbill

Jason,

Not concerned about earnings, as don't believe they cap the field like Derby (please correct me if wrong), and even if they do, never that many horses in it (7 ran last year, although Rachel likely scared number away and JWD was late scratch). Haven't been able to find anything about her plans, but I do know she can't win if she doesn't run. Ironically, I was hoping she wouldn't dominate, as I feared, like you, that trainer was itching to run her in Derby. Least that no longer concern....

24 Mar 2010 8:22 PM
Jason Shandler

AuburnBill: Earnings only matter in the Oaks if more than 14 enter. That happens some years. What was the name of the Frankel horse who won the Oaks after drawing in during the final week? She was 15 on the list and was going to be excluded except for a late defection. I forget her name.

This wont be a small field like there was last year. I know of at least 10 or 12 that are pointing right now, and that is just off the top of my head.

Anyway, I hope they do send her and she gets in. I'll find out by the end of the week.

24 Mar 2010 8:28 PM
LAZMANNICK

Matthew W

No doubt LAL is king right now.  If he goes back to SA for the Derby Alphie will let him know that he's around, but Lucky should win (for now).  The Kentucky Derby might be a different story.  I wonder if they are going to run Lucky back on synthetics or keep him on conventional dirt instead.

24 Mar 2010 8:33 PM
PMAC14

I hope Cornell beats Kentucky(since I am a Mississippi State), but Tha Cuse will smash Butler.

24 Mar 2010 8:36 PM
Jason Shandler

All: have to get up very early tomorrow. Going to bed. I'll get to your comments Thursday late morning. Thanks.

24 Mar 2010 8:42 PM
Greg J.

Jason,

    I believe it was Mr. Frankel's filly, Flute, That got in at the last moment when both Serena's Tune and Scoop dropped out at the last moment and Flute got into the Oaks in 2001?  I am pretty sure that is how it transpired?  

    As far as the earning's, While alot of those looking in outside the top twenty might jump over some ahead of them, I am still going with about $150K should be safe. While I hope it doesn't happen, This year has had very few drop of the trail due to injuries,  I still think that will play a huge roll in the earning's capping out at $150K, I would expect probably around five colts that would be in from their earning's drop out due to some type of illness or injury, I hope I am wrong though...

24 Mar 2010 8:57 PM
Auburnbill

Jason,

I believe you are referring to Flute. If CD is left out due to large field, at least it should guarantee a fast pace, which should help my backup - Blind Luck (couldn't pass on 4-1 when so often see so much less on favorites Oaks Day).

PMAC14,

you gotta stay loyal to the conference, man. Unless it's your in-state rival. Go SEC - ACC gets the bball hype, but SEC wins the titles.

24 Mar 2010 9:08 PM
Ted from LA

Good night, Mary Ellen.  Good night, John Boy.  Good night Jim Bob.  Good night, Jason.  Northern Iowa is the bet.  Point Given was and is a beast.  Caracortado will get second in the Santa Anita Derby.

24 Mar 2010 9:47 PM
Footlick

The only Frankel filly I can remember is Fluke.  Don't know if that was the one though.

24 Mar 2010 10:26 PM
LDP

If Baffert kept Lucky on dirt, I could understand that reasoning. So far horses transfering from synthetic to dirt have done spectacular, especially their first start after a synthetic start. If Lucky were to move way up again in the Derby, after a win in SA, he would have an even better chance of winning.

25 Mar 2010 5:52 AM
Rachel

Gunbow I agree with you about the lousy purses at SA and other traditional Derby preps, but the plain fact is that everyone could point to the bigger purses, knowing it's graded earnings that gets them in the big race, it's not like Sunland wouldn't let them run...then that would be unfair...

25 Mar 2010 7:30 AM
Frank J.

Jason,

I was only kidding about CD, I mean you can talk about her all you want, it's your blog, just thought you would discuss something OTHER than her this time, lol!! I enjoy your blogs just like everyone else, just thought I'd get a jab in there is all. I also wanted to ask what you thought of Follow The Leader by Smarty and if he might go in the Ark. Derby. He seems like a nice horse. Mike Relva...I'm a joke?? Yeah, I would try counting how many people on this blog dislike you but I'd be wasting my time, Point Given may have been good for 4 races but I just think it's time to move on, there were alot of good horses for a similar stretch but I'm not about to rehash it.

25 Mar 2010 9:17 AM
Jason Shandler

Yes, Flute is who I was thinking of.

25 Mar 2010 9:38 AM
Echo

Like you say, this weekend could change the earnings standings considerably.

IF Stay Put won the Louisiana Derby it would jump him from 57th on the list to 6th.  (providing my figures are correct and assuming no other horse advanced to more than $456k))

25 Mar 2010 9:57 AM
RiverCitySmitty

Slew:  Drank some NOLA Hopitoulas at the Mandeville beer fest last weekend even though I was working the Anchor Steam booth.

4 of the last 5 Ky Oaks winners have won the FG Oaks.  Jody Slew looked to be the best, but suffered a slight injury when cast in her stall.  She`s entered, but iffy.

I`ve posted for the last couple of weeks how Esky was on the bubble with graded money and how I thought they should`ve stayed in Fla. against a relatively small field.  At least Odysseus` connections seem to understand the money rule and plan on another prep.  Having a highly touted horse fail to get in the KD is like buying a Shelby and never taking it out the garage.

Win Star`s 4th stringer Endorsement in a big upset @ Sun?

Ron the Greek out the clouds @ the FG.

25 Mar 2010 10:06 AM
Trifectabox

Tizs - last I heard Tiz the One was a possibility for the Arkansas Derby.

25 Mar 2010 11:55 AM
It Aint Easy being good

Why so much love for ron the greek he is so overrated...no explosion at all just runs plain and waits for horses to get tired. He does haev stamina I will give him that.

Carlos in Cali: Your out of your mind if you think butler has a chance!

Jason: The rich air in Dubia has clouded your mind Baylor Bears in a beatdown tonight! Kansas State wins it all this year! They get no press and have the best team in the country!!

Derby tri box: Awesome Act, Sidneys Candy, Conveyance, Looking at Lucky. No more analysis needed!

25 Mar 2010 12:39 PM
Speedball

Point Given was a fantastic runner and one of the best horses of the past 20 years.

OSU Buckeyes will clean house at NCAA with Ky in close 2nd.

Hope Backtalk makes the Derby.  Anxious to see what Conveyance does at Sunland.

25 Mar 2010 1:20 PM
RiverCitySmitty

Ain`t easy...Ron the Greek has shown to be one of the few closers in a year overloaded with pace type horses.  His "plain" style has been the same in all of his races and the extra distance should be a help to him while possibly hindering others.  

25 Mar 2010 1:28 PM
Mike Relva

FRANK J

Your comment regarding how many "dislike" me,my goal hasn't even been about winning a popularity contest.

25 Mar 2010 1:40 PM
Zookeeper

Mike Relva,

I like you!

25 Mar 2010 1:57 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

It's getting scary how much graded earnings it might take but everyone got in last year that should- after all of our worrying so maybe they will this year. There are at least a few in the top 20 right now that we can assume aren't going to run. There will be at least 3 or 4 new names after this seekend. According to The Horse Race Theory of Relativity- HPS + E=MC2 divided by T: Stay Put, A Little Warm, Drosselmeyer, and Fly Down have the best chance of cracking the Top 20 Derby List from the LA Derby. There is a good chance that Discreetly Mine won't like the faster pace pressure, back out and not be able to close. Ron the Geek might not get there in time to get better than 3rd. If the track favors speed and Wow Wow Wow can slow down a little after getting the lead and is more relaxed and better conditioned he could last for a top 3 finish but he wouldn't be my pick. Hotep or Mission Impazible doing well would not surprise. Expect a lot more from Drosselmeyer and less from Discreetly Mine than their last race.

25 Mar 2010 2:32 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Slew

   I told you to box Pleasant Prince and Ice Box in the top two spots and Lentenor and Rule in the next two spots for the superfecta. Weren't you listening?

25 Mar 2010 2:35 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Haha I like Mike R too he is the only reason I go on here just so I can talk about his weak cali horses but for some odd reason I do like sidneys candy and conveyance......I have a keen eye for talent and can tell you that Ron the greek is weak! BTW is it to late to get off the Dublin bandwagon or am I stuck?? lol

25 Mar 2010 2:44 PM
Householder

Point Given must have beaten lousy horses for some time to earn nearly 4 million dollars.  The horse finished out of the money once and is one of only a handful to have taken the Preakness, Belmont, and Travers (In addition to sweeping the SA Derby preps San Felipe, Santa Anita Derby).  

Jason we did not get our Lookin at Lucky Interactif matchup!  

25 Mar 2010 3:20 PM
Mike Relva

IT Aint Easy Being Good

It's not too late.

25 Mar 2010 3:23 PM
Mike Relva

ZOOKEEPER

Thanks,the feelings' mutual.

25 Mar 2010 3:24 PM
Householder

I really like the In Excess Holy Bull mix on Conveyance.  I say he goes 1 1/8th.  And how many times was Holy Bull out of the money?  Baffert is packing a serious 1-2 punch.  Time for Pletcher to step it up.  

25 Mar 2010 3:28 PM
Carlos in Cali

Jason,..just watched THS for the 1st time and I noticed none of you picked Ron The Greek.I'm still on him,so I'll use a front runner(Discreetly Mine)who should sit a nice trip,a mid-pack runner(Fly Down)who's improving,and the stone cold closer who should get a pace to his liking.I'll use Stay Put underneath the exotics,your choice Drosselmeyer has a bad post or I'd have used him as well(think he'll lose too much ground).

Conveyance in the Sunland Derby is kinda' odd.I personally think they're ducking tougher competition,plus he has a better chance of getting the 9f there than at the bigger tracks,..what say you?

There gonna' be on Conveyance in this one with Tempted to Tapit likely being hustled towards the lead w/that outside post.My pick is Nacho Friend who ran pretty good last out in his comeback race,his charts seem to point to him having ability to run with good horses so far.He should be in prime shape for this one.Nacho Friend w/TtT,Classical Slew & Conveyance underneath the exotics.

Tell your boy Tom(BigBonesMakeGoodSoup)LaMarra to get his head out the gutter re: Fly Down's namesake..lol.

25 Mar 2010 3:32 PM
LAZMANNICK

It Aint Easy being good

Of course yuou can get off the Dublin bandwagon.  People like you and Draynay only jump on bandwagons after the race anyway, not before, so now with the upcoming big races you'll have a lot to chose from (after the fact of course).

25 Mar 2010 3:33 PM
LAZMANNICK

Hey Mke:

I like you.  I hear that Draynay and It Aint Easy being good also like you but they're afraid to admit it.  LOL

25 Mar 2010 3:34 PM
Carlos in Cali

It's Easy being mediocre,

Don't flatter yourself,...plus you made your bed now sleep in it.You can't go back on your 'lock' to win the Derby horse Stumblin,..err..Dublin now that you know he's over hyped. lol

25 Mar 2010 3:43 PM
Zookeeper

Dr Drunkinbum,

After spending some time trying to decipher the darn La Derby, I come back to this blog and find out you picked pretty much the same horses I did. Here's what I'm going to do: Stay Put to Win. Then an Exacta: Stay Put w/ A Little Warm, Drosselmeyer, Discreetly Mine. I'll probably add Fly Down now so that I can be a total copy cat. LOL!

P.S. I'm beginning to worry that our minds work the same. :)

25 Mar 2010 3:51 PM
TJLuvsTizs

Thanks Tri,

If LAL is pointing to the SA derby instead of the ARK. Derby, he may have a decent shot.  I wonder if NP is going to stay in Hot Springs.  I like Uh Oh Bango in that race, and who knows, maybe Dublin will finally break through too.  

Three more weeks of fun!  Then we will have three more weeks of speculation all to get burned by a longshot in the derby!

This is one of my favorite times of the year!

25 Mar 2010 4:20 PM
Rachel

Hey Mike Revla, I don't know you, but I really like your posts!

25 Mar 2010 4:40 PM
Auburnbill

Everyone, please jump off the Dublin bandwagon and bet anyone else in Pool 3 future. I would love to add to my 20-1 Pool 1 wager before his odds drop dramatically after the Ark Derby. Lucas is no Pletcher - preps means nothing to him other than getting the horse ready for May 1. And since he has had the earnings for some time, he's only fine-tuning and biding his time...

25 Mar 2010 4:51 PM
Greg J.

Mike Relva,

     Ditto what Lazmannick said...

Also,

     Am I the ONLY one who likes Mission Impazible in the La. Derby???   I will take him and Drosselmeyer as my top two with The Program finishing out my top three...

25 Mar 2010 4:54 PM
It Aint Easy being good

LAZMANNICK=2nd dont compare me to dray he is obssesed with RA. I am Quality Road Fan.

Carlos in Cali=Ducking competition the race is 800,000 how is conveyance ducking anyone come back to reality!

I will stay on the dublin bandwagon and go to sleep....cali man but I eat S Candy in bed and I wake up and usuallydo some cool AWESOME ACTS! lol!

25 Mar 2010 5:01 PM
Lil Darlin

Hope the GE rule doesn't keep us all on pins and needles again as to whether or not a good horse will get in or not.  I hate that process - holding your breath and crossing fingers/toes that the final field isn't missing a little something.

Jason, as far as I'm concerned you could do a whole retrospective blog about Point Given and I would read every word 50 times...love that horse and he's probably the reason I went from being a Triple Crown racing fan to a year round racing fan (even with his untimely retirement). Man, that big boy could run!

25 Mar 2010 5:04 PM
Mike Relva

RACHEL/ GREG J

Thanks very much to the both of you.  GREG J I only wish I showed as much CLASS as you do,but it's not within me.

25 Mar 2010 6:05 PM
Dr Drunkinbum

Zookeeper

  I already had that figured out but I'm not worried. I do believe they are making a mistake with Kettle River-He should be at Aqueduct training for and running in the Wood. I think he's a dirt horse. Am really anxious for April 3rd mainly because I want Setsuko in the Derby. I'm going with Northern Giant at Turfway. I wouldn't bet against Conveyance at Sunland so I'm staying out.

  Greg J

 Nothing wrong with that bet. I do like Mission Impazible just don't know exactly what to expect. To me he's the stronger of the two Pletcher horses in this race. I do expect a big race from Drosselmeyer and don't believe the post will hurt him.

25 Mar 2010 6:28 PM
Slew

RiverCity: Apparently it's a campaign to kick off a new beer, the Hurricane Saisson.  Me, I prefer Abita's Purple Haze.  Why Ron the Greek...Closer. Dave in Dixie...closer.  Backtalk...speed. Lookin At Lucky ...closing speed.  And barring a lecture from coldfacts, any horse tracing back to Slew (unfortunately...that's sort of most of them.)  I think Hotep and Island Soul may step up in the LA Derby.  Jody Slew and Quiet Temper duel again in the Ladies.  El Caballo takes the Muniz with Blues Street in the $$. Giant Oak and Star Guitar score in the Handicap.

Dr Drinkinbum:  Guess I just gotta be me...stubborn and hung over.

25 Mar 2010 6:51 PM
RiverCitySmitty

Slew: The Saisson was gone before I had a chance to try it.  All their beer was draft.  Do they bottle any?

Backtalk had an unbelievable workout today @ the FG breezing 6f in 1:09-3!!!!!  Frankly, I don`t believe it and think a bird or duck or goose whatever must`ve tripped the timer.

Albarado jumps from Hotep to Island Soul in the LaD.  I`m sticking with the Greek and Stay Put.  I see where another Asmussen horse, Letsgetitonmon, is running in the Lane`s End.  I read where Steve A. said he didn`t seem to handle the surface so maybe turf or play doh will be more to his liking.

25 Mar 2010 7:12 PM
Mike Relva

LAZMANNICK

Thanks! Got something to tell you later.

25 Mar 2010 7:17 PM
LAZMANNICK

It Aint Easy

Dray's a Quality Road fan too.  Not so great minds think alike.  LOL

25 Mar 2010 9:24 PM
predict

LA Derby looks like DM again, with RtG and FD rounding out the tri.

Red Desire could be surprise in Dubai, would make for an interesting matchup with Zenyatta and Rachel in the Breeder's Cup Classic. Sorry , I think I'm just bored after looking at the LA Derby.

25 Mar 2010 10:07 PM
Greg J.

Wow! Xavier has to win this game!  Heading to double overtime!  What a game!  

26 Mar 2010 12:12 AM
Ranagulzion

MIKE RELVA,

Whats going on here Bro? Don't tell me the pity party has already started and the Wood Memorial hasn't even been run yet, not to mention the Kentucky Derby.  It seems to me like all your good friends LASMANICK, GREG J, ZOOKEEPER, IT AINT EASY and fan club member RACHEL agrees with me that one of TODD PLETCHER'S horses is going to win the Derby.  They are already beginning to miss you and getting all emotional and teary-eyed on this Blog, saying how much they like you because you took a vow to stay away for 3 long months if a member of the TODD SQUAD won the Derby.  I think that you shoul thank Ranagulzion for stimulating all these positive affections and soft-hearted sentiments towards you.  I kindof like you too Mike and am beginning to wish that you hadn't taken that dreadful vow 'cause Esky wont sympathise my friend ...he's gonna be all business in the Wood and come Derby day ...he's gonna be merciless with Johnny V cocking that stick. Nevertheless Mike, 3 months wont be that long anyway and besides I don't think that you'll want to be around here when we're celebrating Pletcher's triumph anyway. Peace and love friend.  

26 Mar 2010 2:18 AM
Dr Drunkinbum

Slew

  Watching replays, Drosselmeyer was the most visually impressive. I expect to see an explosive turn of foot in the LA Derby. He's had enough time between races this time and may be able to sustain his run. Hit the sauna, then start your workout. We have to get you ready for the big race. We're running you in the Blogger's Cup Classic against Dray in the dirt or if it rains, slinging mud.

26 Mar 2010 9:14 AM
It Aint Easy being good

LAZMANNICK yeah usually liking HOY horses is the way to go aka Rachel Alaxnder aka Quality Road this year. I am sure your a Mine that Third fan!

26 Mar 2010 9:38 AM
Slew

River City: Stick with Abita.

Amoss was furious over the time.  Backtalk started out with 2 workmates 20 lengths ahead. The idea was to keep them both 10 ahead of him.  He blew by both.  Amoss doesn't want him burned out before the Derby. He's ultra- competitive, it would appear.  I still question his concentration but have never doubted his speed.  His works at the Fair Grounds have all been some of the fastest works there, but this last won astounds me.  No one has been close in times.  Smarty Jones has a good boy!

26 Mar 2010 10:40 AM
Carlos in Cali

Butler Baby!!!!

St.Mary's & N.Iowa's shooting spree ends tonight.Sorry Jason.

26 Mar 2010 10:40 AM
Slew

Dr Drinkinbum: I don't do saunas, workouts, or running.  I was entered in the Olympics in the drinking division, but the event was cancelled when they ran out of Molson.  The slinging mud, I'll leave to dray. I believe all the Quality Road talk will take a back seat when Take Control comes back to the track.  I'm still waiting for Ron the Greek to step back up, and  Hotep and Wow wow Wow might be in the money too.  The Ky Derby itself...I just might like Lookin at Lucky and Backtalk...maybe.

26 Mar 2010 11:30 AM
Tweeter

What about the Illionios Derby Schoolyard Dreams is going in this race and will be right in the mix if he wins. And one of the best 4 year olds in the country is Musket Man same owner trainer. They can both do damage this year

26 Mar 2010 11:35 AM
Householder

Conveyance:  I don't think Baffert wants any part of Sydney's Candy or his other horse (LaL)...at least not yet.  We'll no a lot more after 1 1/8.

26 Mar 2010 11:58 AM
LAZMANNICK

Ranagulzion

Maybe I should pull a little tizzy like you and refuse to speak to you because you spelled my name wrong......just kidding.

Actually I like Todd.  He's always been one of my favorite trainers and JR one of my favorite Jockeys.  My probelm with his Derby horses has always been in the way he trains them.  Too often he pushes two year-olds to win the early short distance races by having them show way too much speed and I think that this definitely has a negative effect when it comes to stretching out to the longer distance races like the Derby.  Lately he seems to be changing that style a bit (though not with Rule) and now he has a couple of legitimate Derby contenders that you can actually feel comfortable with.  That being said, I think the road to the Derby still goes through Looking at Lucky and possibly Alphies Bet.  Looking at Lucky is very versatile and tenacious and just might have the quality to sweep the Triple Crown races, but that's just my opinion. LOL

26 Mar 2010 12:29 PM
LAZMANNICK

It Aint Easy being good

Yeah, I never jumped on the Zenyatta bandwagon until she won her 15th in a row.  And Mine That Bird.  Hey everybody (except one) has to luv this little guy.  LOL

26 Mar 2010 12:34 PM
RiverCitySmitty

Householder:  I don`t think Conveyance will like having company up front nor the extra distance.  Tapit won`t just follow the pace setter around Sunday.  Looking for 8th pole meltdown by both, but I hope they both run in Louisville.

26 Mar 2010 12:48 PM
It Aint Easy being good

Baylor bears are going to crush tonight! Why are you guys doubting Conveyance going the extra distance no horse can catch Conveyance he hasnt lost a race and really hasnt been challenged yet! He is going to be a handful May 1st!

26 Mar 2010 1:11 PM
Householder

RiverCitySmitty

It would be pretty cool to see the "Holy Bull" blood kick in on Conveyance.  Perhaps no one will head him and we will have an undefeated horse going into the Derby.  Time will tell.  

26 Mar 2010 1:33 PM
Zookeeper

If there's a meltdown (as in don't hit the board) Conveyance has enough earnings to make it to Louisville but Tempted to Tapit only has $60,000. It's unlikely that he would make it to the KD if he doesn't hit the board in the Sunland Derby.

26 Mar 2010 2:31 PM
tcc

Jason:

Godolphin has another horse that was a early nomitation for the Triple Crown Race's, his name is Frozen Power, do you know anything about him?

26 Mar 2010 2:42 PM
Slew

Very interesting...in over 85 years, only 2 LA Derby winners have won they Kentucky Derby.  Florida...may be 3, Santa Anita Derby produced 6, Wood Memorial has produced 11 Derby winners (4 of them Triple Crown Champs), and I am uncertain about the Illinois Derby...maybe 1.

26 Mar 2010 2:42 PM
Slew

I forgot. Risen Star who won the LA Derby did win the Preakness and Belmont.  Arkansas Derby has 2 Ky derby winners, but quite a few who won the 2nd or 3rd leg of the TC.

26 Mar 2010 2:56 PM
Mike Relva

RANAGULZION

So,what happens when your world collapses' in one frame when Pletcher lets you down....again? BTW,Zookeeper,Greg J,Lazmannick,etc would probably pay to see you absent here for three months. lol

26 Mar 2010 3:57 PM
Zookeeper

Actually no, I wouldn't pay to have Ranagulzion absent from this blog. I reserve that for Dray, his clones and very few others which shall remain unnamed as to not pull them out of oblivion. I don't like everybody on this blog but some of them are very much more obnoxious than others.

Ranagulzion, you often toe the line but you're not in the same category as the above mentioned, even when you try. LOL! :)

26 Mar 2010 4:53 PM
tcc

Jason:

Bob Baffert said champion LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) is scheduled to work Sunday, after which the Hall of Fame trainer will decide on running in either the April 3 Santa Anita Derby (G1) or the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 10...

26 Mar 2010 4:58 PM
Greg J.

Jason,

    Any insight why Vision d'Etat might be a scratch for tomorrow's Dubai World Cup?  Thanks...

Also, I hope California Flag and Presious Passion take there races...

26 Mar 2010 5:08 PM
Nancy

To Frank J.: Follow the Leader is a fine and promising colt, but he's 4. He was injured in his first (and only) start as a 3yo, but is undefeated as a 4yo. He'll probably go next in The Fifth Season on April 8.

26 Mar 2010 6:04 PM
Jason Shandler

tcc: I think Baffert is leaning toward Santa Anita.

Greg: I read vision d'etat came up "a liitle stiff." Must pass a vet examination tomorrow morning.

26 Mar 2010 6:15 PM
draynay

Odysseus to the Lane's End ??? You have to be kidding me.  LAL to Santa Anita ?  Scratch that horse from your Derby pick now.  I hope something sticks out in the next week or two because so far the best horse running isn't even going to the Derby right FunnyB ?  I am still liking Noble's Promise and I will be cheering on Fly Down. What else is out there? Not much yet.  I still like Christine Daae for the win the day before the Derby.

26 Mar 2010 6:24 PM
Jason Shandler

Dray: Among your many problems is the ability to read. Odysseus is going in the Blue Grass, not the Lane's End. Crawl back to your hole now...

26 Mar 2010 6:46 PM
draynay

The What Grass ? Does anyone even watch that race ? Lol. Yes, nothing like getting ready for the big race by running in the Blue Grass.  Give me a break who's great idea was that?  Scraaaatch that one from you Derby hopeful list. Time to jump on a new wagon Jason.  I will move over so you can jump on Noble's Promise.  You didn't pick Fly Down ?  Do I have to draw you a map ?

26 Mar 2010 7:06 PM
Footlick

Plus Vision d' Etat hasn't run in awhile nor ever on synthetic.  He's a great 10 furlong horse, but may be up against it.  Gitano Hernando and Red Desire the two main threats as far as my opinion is concerned.  Twice Over may need a race though Cecil sys he's ready.  And I read Gio had a little trouble adapting to the time change.  Richard's Kid is training well.

26 Mar 2010 8:04 PM
Citation

Draynay, I like Noble's Promise too. How did you come to like him for the Derby? Also, don't make fun of the synthetics horses, if they have run well on dirt before they are still legit prospects. Lazmannick, I think both Rachel and Zen will fall to Quality Road if they race him, but that doesn't make me crazy, does it?

26 Mar 2010 9:18 PM
Ranagulzion

LAZMANNICK,

I respect the chances of Looking At Lucky but prefer his stablemate Conveyance from the Baffert camp.  He's been on my radar for quite a while now ...having that resemblance in looks, speed, tenacity and propensity to win, to his ultra-smart broodmare sire Holy Bull.  I expect him to win the Sunland Derby on the trot but the Kentucky Derby is a different kettle of fish. Bob Baffert knows how to get his charges ripe and ready for the big day and deserves every respect.  He certainly has mine even though I fancy a Pletcher rout this year.

26 Mar 2010 9:21 PM
Mike Relva

DRAYNAY

Have to say I like N.P. alot,too. Think he might run big in the Derby.

26 Mar 2010 9:37 PM
marktoothaker

Look out for Stay Put tommorow in Louisiana, Broken Vow getting it done as a sire and this horse should get plenty of pace to run at this time around. Congrats to Mark Stanley with Quiet Temper, this guy just keeps coming up with runners.

26 Mar 2010 9:44 PM
The Rock

Jason,

Hopefully you'll be able to break even on Ohio St. as St. Mary's is getting their butts kicked right now.

I love Presvis in the Dubai Duty Free tomorrow. Tough post, but he'll just do what he did last year in the race. Drop in, get cover, and make a big run. US horses got no shot on turf in Dubai. Although PP would be a great story.

Gitano Hernando seems like the wise guy horse in the World Cup. Although he's in sharp form, I wonder if he can hold off the late kick of some horses that have a bit more class than what he's faced so far. Red Desire is a filly that has been very impressive in Japan and I liked her local win last time out. I'll take her at a price to make some history.

Other Dubai Races

Al Quoz Sprint - Our Giant

Godolphin Mile - Desert Party on top to Cat Junior, Green Coast

UAE Derby - Raihana on top to Mendip & Musir

Golden Shaheen - Kingsale King (West Coast speed will be deadly in Dubai. Class is the question.)

Sheema Classic - Buena Vista (If I like Red Desire, I got to like this one)

Duncan Kenner S. - Cash Refunt/Kensei

New Orleans H. - General Quarters

Mervin Muniz - Baletti

Louisiana Derby - Fly Down

Queen Stakes - Life Lesson

Lanes End - Doubles Partner

26 Mar 2010 9:47 PM
Jason Shandler

Rock: I took it on the chin with St. Mary's. lol. Didnt play OSU, luckily. I used N. Iowa late. Hoping the break even tonight.

26 Mar 2010 9:50 PM
The Rock

Aww man,

Dray picked Fly Down? I'll go with A Little Warm, but I might just watch the race now...Hotep is a little interesting, but his Beyers are a bit low. But I like the post switch.

26 Mar 2010 9:51 PM
The Rock

Hopefully you got some points for N. Iowa. I took Duke at -8.5, heavily based on the fact that one of my friends is going there for his Masters. But Purdue is ailing, and hopefully it catches up with them tonight.

26 Mar 2010 9:56 PM
LAZMANNICK

Citation:

No you're not crazy, you're just half wrong, or is it half right.  I don't see anything even close to beating Zenyatta right now.  My only concern is that her age might suddenly catch up to her, but barring that I don't think the competition will.  Once again, just my humble opinion....LOL

26 Mar 2010 10:03 PM
tk's shots

gryder on consul genl in meydan race 3 looks like the shot to me.

26 Mar 2010 10:55 PM
tcc

Jason:

I also like those same 3 horse's in LA. Derby as you do. Hope you play an exacta box on those horses. I might do that, and also put a win/place wager on each one of them.

26 Mar 2010 11:08 PM
tcc

Jason:

There are at least 4 horse's in the Lane's End that might be able to knock off Connemara.

26 Mar 2010 11:23 PM
Citation

Well Lazmannick, I still like Quality Road, but I respect Zenyatta and if the two meet, I wish for nothing but the better horse winning. Hopefully QR, but if it's Zen I'll give her her due.

27 Mar 2010 12:20 AM
GunBow

Jason, it's been a year since I met you in person at Turfway on Lane's End day.  For most of the last decade, the Lane's End offered me the first opportunity of the year to leave the cold of Michigan and journey south to see top class racing.  The 4+ hour drive to northern Kentucky usually meant weather 15 degrees warmer, and a genuine hint of spring.  

Last year's Lane's End didn't have a big impact on the Triple Crown, with the best result being runner-up Flying Private's 4th in the Preakness the best result, but winner Hold Me Back did run a good 2nd in the Travers(ahead of Quality Road).  One only has to go back three years to find a Lane's End runner that had a huge impact on the Triple Crown, that being Hard Spun.

As for this year's Lane's End, I just wanted to give my two cents on the SoCal shippers Kettle River and Outlaw Man.  Kettle River, trained by Eoin Harty, was one of the favorites for the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, coming off an easy victory over The Program in an allowance race in which he earned a 90 Beyer, one of the most highly rated allowance/maiden races for 3 year olds at the Santa Anita meet.  I got a good look at Kettle River in the paddock before the Sham, and he was the physical standout of the field, a big, strong, atheltically built son of Congaree; he had all the attributes one looks for in a Derby prospect.  However, Kettle River went out and absolutely laid an egg, finishing 8th of 10.  

Kettle River lagged early in the race, and though he appeared to be moving nicely, even catching the eye of Trevor Denman who was waiting for a big move, he offered little in the stretch.  Harty has had a tough meet, so Kettle River was just one in a string of disappointments.  But clearly, Harty still believes in this horse, otherwise I doubt he would have shipped him in for this race.  If he runs to his looks, he has a shot.

Although Outlaw Man finished ahead of Kettle River in the Sham(OM ran 4th), I am more excited about Kettle River.  Outlaw Man appears to be a nice horse, having pushed Lane's End rival Doubles Partner in a maiden race earlier in their careers.  Outlaw Man had been running on turf prior to the Sham, but he seemed to transfer his form to synthetic just fine.  However, he doesn't have a big performance in his pps like Kettle River does, nor does his physical appearance inspire the same promise as does Kettle River.  Outlaw Man seems to be a very consistent horse, and if no one else really improves in the Lane's End, he will be right in the thick of things.  

However, Kettle River does appear to have the greater upside, and has been carrying high expectations.  If he runs to his best, I think he finishes ahead of Outlaw Man and contends for the overall victory.  The question remaining, however, is what is the likelihood that Kettle River will turn in a top performance?

27 Mar 2010 1:35 AM
Forbidden Apple

Frank J, I still can't believe that you have zero respect for Point Given! What other horse can you name that won the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell, and Travers? I think it's time you purchased some new glasses. He freaked in the Belmont and probably injured a tendon in that race. All he did was win the Haskell next and then blasted the field in the Travers with a sore tendon.

Draynay, take a moment and read what GunBow wrote about synthetic tracks and Dubai. I have tried to tell you the same, but you are in the dark when it comes to synthetic races. Do you hate turf too? Lookin At Lucky is staying in CA because he does not have to ship and Baffert already gave him a race on dirt.

Conveyance is another horse that gets zero respect. He will win the Sunland Derby, remain undefeated and still be overlooked. Why?

Mendip will win the UAE Derby and move up on the earnings list, he also deserves some respect.

I have been saying this for weeks, Quality Road is a miler and will point to the Met Mile. He wants no part of Zenyatta or others at 1 1/4.

Ranagulzion, cancel your Pletcher party for May 1.

27 Mar 2010 2:56 AM
LAZMANNICK

Hotep

Funny you should mention Hotep.  His full brother won the Queen's Plate, Canada's top 3 y-o race last year.  At 30-1 morning line he's an interesting one to watch although he hasn't shown much.  LOL

27 Mar 2010 7:38 AM
2:24

What's wrong with prepping in the Blue Grass?  Seemed to work for Street Sense.

27 Mar 2010 7:50 AM
draynay

Very strange year and the Derby is not that far away.  I like Noble now but I will make a final pick after the Wood and Arkansas.  Dublin is still a horse to watch because let's face it no horse will be under 10 to 1 come Derby Day.  So far this group looks as weak as 2005.

27 Mar 2010 10:01 AM
The Rock

2 for 3 in Dubai. I reversed the UAE Derby in the exotics and got the ICE COLD Trifecta. Kingsale King ran differently than I originally thought early in the race, but he came out on top, which is all that matters. On to my best bet of the day, Presvis in the Duty Free

27 Mar 2010 11:38 AM
Race Fan

I think LAL will stay SA because Baffert knows he can run on the dirt and doesn't want to ship twice. Besides who wants to see him beat Nobles Promise for a 4th time.

27 Mar 2010 12:13 PM
Mike Relva

LAZMANNICK

I agree,but I would be more concerned regarding age if she had run thirty or forty times,but with only fifteen races I'm not too concerned. Good point,at six sometimes age will catch up almost overnite.

27 Mar 2010 12:58 PM
GunBow

There's nothing like seeing horses in person to make you feel attached to them.  It was a good night in Dubai for horses I have seen.

Gloria de Campeao, 7th in the Arlington Million, won the richest race ever by a nose with Gio Ponti(won 08' Sir Beaufort, 09' Arlington Million, 2nd BC Classic) 4th, Dar Re Mi and Spanish Moon, 3rd and 4th in the BC Turf at Santa Anita, ran 1-3 in the Sheema Classic, Kinsale King, winner of the gr.2 Palos Verdes earlier this year at Santa Anita, won the Golden Shaheen.  In the Dubai Duty Free, The Usual QT(won the Oak Tree Derby, Hollywood Derby, Sir Beaufort, last in the Sunshine Millions Classic) ran 4th, and Take the Points(won the Secretariat Stakes, out of the money in the Hollywood Derby) ran 5th.  Presious Passion and Courageous Cat disappointed, as did Twice Over, Richard's Kid, Furthest Land, Mastery.

27 Mar 2010 3:40 PM
draynay

I can name two horses that will have no problem beating Zenyatta.  Quality Road and Rachel.

27 Mar 2010 4:42 PM
Greg J.

Two Words, Mission Impazible!!!  Loved this colt since I saw his first race, Good Job...

27 Mar 2010 5:53 PM
Jacqui

I liked the way Stay Put was moving in the homestretch. Even after the winner forced him to alter course in deep stretch, he still kept running. I think he could have gotten a piece if he hadn't had to stop running and swing out.

As it is, he probably won't be in the Derby gate.

27 Mar 2010 7:04 PM
Matthew W

Gonna play against Butler in Final Four--home sweet home = home sweet distractions! As far as Draynay pooh poohing synthetic horse preps, it sure seems like they improve when switched to dirt, maybe pro ride is like the old Belmont "Big Sandy" track, where it gives you more fitness or something--I'll be relieved when they do go back to dirt--if ever! Until then, leave a horse like Lookin At Lucky off your ticket at your own peril--I cannot fathom just tossing him! He gave Noble's Promise at least four or five lengths in Arkansas, or did you even notice? And Baffert said he wasn't cranked up! Yipes!

27 Mar 2010 9:04 PM
Ranagulzion

FORBIDDEN APPLE,

The Todd Squad juggernaut marches on with Mission Impazible...don't start getting nervous just yet ...wait until after Esky struts his stuff in the Wood.

27 Mar 2010 9:28 PM
Matthew W

Dray--Great! Now all they have ta do is show up! Good onya mate!

27 Mar 2010 9:53 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

I doubt very much that they'll ever beat Zenyatta because from what I've seen so far (BCC & backing away from the AB), they don't want to face her or should I say THE GREAT MARE.

27 Mar 2010 10:02 PM
LAZMANNICK

Mike Relva

Sometimes age catches up pretty quicky and yet a seven year-old just won a $10,000,000 race.  You never know but I like your point about being lightly raced.  It really does mean a lot.

27 Mar 2010 10:07 PM
LAZMANNICK

Citation

I like Quality Road also and have no problem about his winning races.  I still think about his gate fiasco at the BCC and how stressed out the poor guy was.  I wish him all the best.  LOL  

27 Mar 2010 10:12 PM
dp

when the first odds came out for the derby i put $200  on looking at lucky   what a bet at 12 to 1 odds

28 Mar 2010 12:26 AM
dr fager01

CITATION' QUALITY ROAD IS A HEADCASE, HE SORT OF REMINDS ME OF JAMAICAN SPRINTER 'OSAFA POWELL' WHEN THE BIG RACE SHOWS UP, HE WILL DISAPEAR.  QR,S ABILITY IS SHOWCASING HIS BEST STUFF AGAINST WEAKER FIELDS.  THE ZENYATTA RIVALRY WILL NEVER HAPPEN, SHE IS TOO MUCH THE BIG GAME COMPETITOR FOR QR. AS FAR THE DERBY, GIVE CONVEYANCE HIS DUE, DONT STEVE HASKIN'S HIM.

28 Mar 2010 1:59 AM
VDISC

Which Horse do you think is the best the horse that didn't get into the Derby because of earnings? I think it was Rock Hard Ten because of his DQ in the SA derby he didn't make it. I had him in Big Cap the next year though.  Just like when i liked Came Home as a 3 year old and jumped on him in the Big Cap the next year. Cha Ching!!

28 Mar 2010 10:21 AM
draynay

Hey I have a great idea.  Why not let the California horses run their own Derby at Santa Anita.  The winner can run again and again against the same horses never coming out east to Saratoga, Belmont, or Churchill and claim to be the best ever.  I hear it's worked for another horse out there.

28 Mar 2010 10:27 AM
Mike Relva

LAZMANNICK

Thanks,how was your weekend?

28 Mar 2010 12:30 PM
LAZMANNICK

Draynay

What a great idea and I'm sure the east coast trainers would agree because then they won't be racing for ssecond money AGAIN!

28 Mar 2010 1:43 PM
LAZMANNICK

Mike

I had a great weekend and I gather you did too.  LOL

28 Mar 2010 1:44 PM
draynay

Yes, maybe California can produce another great Derby winner like Giacamo.  Maybe the California horse could just have their own Plastic Bowl or call it the Super Plastic Bowl.

28 Mar 2010 2:51 PM
Jacqui

Draynay,

I thought that it would be obvious to link the Santa Anita Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Pacific Classic, and pony up a bonus for a horse that could sweep all three. We already know that it can be done, too, when Lava Man swept all three in 2006.

28 Mar 2010 9:30 PM
Footlick

Or maybe California can produce another Derby winner like Swaps......

28 Mar 2010 11:23 PM
RiverCitySmitty

Esky now 28th in graded earnings and faces make or break in the Wood.  He`ll need at least a second to avoid getting shut out.  A show finish could do it barring upsets in remaining preps.

29 Mar 2010 9:22 AM
sodapopkid

Mr. Dray:

You constantly put down Cali horses, but to what I have seen lately, the Cali horses can transition better from synthetics to dirt, a whole lot better than your dirt horses can go to synthetics.  Thumbs up for the west, eh'.

29 Mar 2010 9:56 AM
Jesy Simms

Mission Impazible not getting much credit for his race.I thought he moved way up in his third start of the year. Might get a big price with this guy he's getting some of my money in the Real Derby!

30 Mar 2010 1:18 PM
RiverCitySmitty

Congrats to Esky and his fans.  It now looks as if 225k or more will be needed to run at Louisville.  Saw where 85ina50 trainer is even considering the Derby Trial in a possible effort to get in the KD.

04 Apr 2010 11:58 AM
2-cents

I really hope Setsuko could sneak in there, but I doubt it.

05 Apr 2010 2:38 PM
Brighteyes

Do you feel ice Box will win the derby

30 Apr 2010 10:05 PM

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