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Derby Thoughts - One Day After

 

He talked the talk and he walked the walk. Well, actually, Big Brown walked the walk for him, but you get the point.

The week prior to the Derby, I wrote on this blog that trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. had gone too far in proclaiming that he didn't see "how his horse could get beat." While I still believe Dutrow was being a bit too cocky and could have chosen his words more carefully, I am here to tip my hat to him. The man spoke his mind and his horse confirmed what he had been saying all week: Big Brown really is that good.

When I first wrote about Big Brown a couple of days after his allowance win at Gulfstream, I, like anyone who watched the race, knew he was special. What I did not believe was that he could do what he did considering the obstacles that he had to overcome: Only three starts leading up to the Derby, win from post 20, and rate as well as he did.

He proved me wrong - not by winning, because I knew he had a very good chance - but by dominating the way he did. From a purely racing standpoint, it was as uneventful of a race as we've seen in several years (since War Emblem went wire-to-wire). From the time he made his move coming into the turn, there was never any doubt who was going to win. As Dutrow said earlier in the week, Big Brown is in a class by himself.

So Rick, if you're reading, here's to you. You proved all the doubters wrong, and you deserve to gloat. Actually, as the week went on and I spent more time around him, Dutrow's comments offended me less and amused me more. He's a pretty funny guy. What I first perceived as arrogance gradually turned into nothing other than tremendous belief in his horse. And while the words "Dutrow" and "tact" will probably never be used in another sentence after this one, I have to admit, the man did grow on me as the days went by. He's pretty much a goofball.

Like everyone else, I look forward to seeing Big Brown in Baltimore. There is plenty of time to talk about the Preakness in the next 13 days.

Here are a few other random thoughts from Derby Day:

  • My bizarre experience of the day was almost so random that I should have taken it as a sign to pound Big Brown at the betting window: While walking through the tens of thousands of people in the infield to meet a few friends between the seventh and eighth race, I suddenly hear a guy call out my name. "Hey Jason." After approaching but having no idea who it was, the man says, "Hey, it's Paul Pompa." Apparently, Pompa, who is a 25% owner of Big Brown and the man who deserves much of the credit for recognizing the horse's raw talent, recognized me from my video work on bloodhorse.com. Imagine my surprise - seeing the owner of the Derby favorite in the crowded infield a couple hours before the biggest race of his life. I had talked to Pompa on the phone a few weeks before, so we already knew each other a bit. We talked for a few minutes and I wished him luck. Apparently, he didn't need any.
  • The tragic Eight Belles breakdown obviously put a big damper on the day for everyone. For me, it was one of the most surreal moments of my life. It went like this: I was standing along the rail, right near the finish line as the race ended. Like everyone else, I thought all the drama had ended. All of a sudden, co-worker Claire Novak grabs me and says "let's go." We run out on the track, me still not knowing where she is leading us, and we walk up the track. It wasn't until I saw the ambulance a minute later that I realized what Claire already knew. We made it up to the ambulance in time to see Eight Belles being loaded into the van. A few minutes later we saw a handful of people who I don't know, but were obviously somehow connected to Eight Belles, sobbing and consoling each other. Larry Jones, who also didn't not know what happened until a minute or two after the race, stepped onto the van just before it pulled away. It was as sad a moment as I can remember. I dejectedly walked back to the finish line as the other trainers, one by one, crossed my path in the other direction - all headed towards the backside, all of them shocked at what had happened. What a terrible tragedy.
  • Can you ever remember the winner of the Wood Memorial going off at odds of 38-1? I can't, but that's exactly what Tale of Ekati went off at. Tells you how much the general public liked Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro.
  • Speaking of Pyro, was he even in the race? I know he was eighth, which isn't terrible, but I don't remember ever seeing him or hearing his name called.
  • I was completely wrong about Court Vision. He was a non-factor.
  • The highlight of my day? Standing in the paddock next to Hef and his three playmate girlfriends. Pretty cool stuff.
  • My lowlight? Other than Eight Belles, obviously, was Race 2 on the Churchill card. I had the 9 horse (Lenawee) in an exacta with the 2 and the 5. Lenawee wins for fun at odds of 16-1, while 2 and 5 horse fade in deep stretch, costing me a big exacta. Should have wheeled Lenawee.
  • Finally, congrats to Susan O'Connor of New Port Richey, Florida for winning the Derby Contest. She had Big Brown winning and Tale of Ekati in fourth. Surprisingly, of the hundreds of entries, nobody had Big Brown over Eight Belles, or Big Brown with Denis of Cork in third. I guess Im not the only one who took a bath on Derby Day!!

Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

 

With less than four weeks left until Derby day, and only a couple of important preps remaining, things are finally beginning to take shape.

What did we learn last weekend? Well, for one, Colonel John is legit. The son of Tiznow quieted all those who claimed El Gato Malo would have won the Sham had it not been for a poor trip. Fact is, Colonel John is just a better horse right now and is the undeniable best of the West. Only one question remains: How will he like the Churchill dirt?

The disappointing part of the Santa Anita was that Yankee Bravo, thanks to Bob Black Jacks drifting in at the top of the lane and cutting him off, is probably not going to make the first weekend in May. It's a shame, because I think this horse has a lot of talent and would have liked the 1 ¼ miles. He certainly was unlucky last weekend, but as we all know, luck is part of the game.

On the East Coast, we learned that War Pass' Tampa Bay Derby was in fact a throw out. The 2-year-old champion came back in the Wood and ran a big race. Had it not been for a rabbit pressing the pace in the early going, War Pass probably would have had enough left to hold of Tale of Ekati.

For me, having War Pass as at least a player in the Derby will make things a lot more interesting, so I'm glad. That being said, I still don't think he gets the 1 ¼ miles.

Take nothing away from Tale of Ekati, he ran a professional race and showed a lot of heart along the rail to get up and win. I just thought he had the perfect stalking trip behind a very quick pace, and things will not set up that well for him in the Derby.

As you know from my past blogs, I am a big Court Vision fan. And for the second straight time, I came away from his third-place finish very impressed. It was obvious from his poor start and from what Garrett Gomez said afterwards, that Court Vision did not take to the track. He was spinning his wheels the whole time. Most horses would quit under those circumstances, but he did not. In fact, if there was another sixteenth of a mile, Court Vision wins easily. I still say he will be a major player on Derby day.

The Illinois Derby told me nothing, other than confirming the fact that Denis of Cork is a toss out come next month. Recapturetheglory, while a nice story, will be nothing more than a pacesetter in the Derby.

Speaking of pacesetters, it seems that the Derby will now be loaded with early speed. Between War Pass, Bob Black Jack, Recapturetheglory, and possibly Big Brown, there will be some mean opening fractions. I say the race is shaping up for a big-time closer, ie. Pyro, Court Vision, Colonel John, Visionaire, Smooth Air, and maybe even Tomcito.

That being said, here is my top 7 with a month to go.

1. Pyro: Slow times, low Beyers, can't beat War Pass, blah, blah, blah. Right now, for me, he has been the most impressive 3-year-old. I can only go by what I saw, and other than Colonel John, is the only one that has proven his worth two races in a row. Blue Grass will be very interesting, but unless he doesn't show up, Pyro is still the one to beat in the Derby as far as I'm concerned.

2. Colonel John: Hey, I'm a believer. I love his heart, he has one of the most underrated trainers in the world, and he has answered every question. Like I said, his workouts on the Churchill surface will be the key.

3. Court Vision: I know, I know, I'm an idiot for having this high on my list, right? Wrong. Again he showed a powerful closing kick despite spotting the field 10-15 lengths. He is all heart. With the Derby setting up for a closer, he will be a major player. I still want to see him closer to the pace, but Mott will get him there.

4. Big Brown: No denying, he looks to have the most talent of this class. But, again, three races coming into the Derby probably isn't enough. I can't argue that he'll be a factor, but he wouldn't be the first horse coming off a big prep win to flounder. I'm still not completely sold.

5. War Pass: Look, he's a champion and he has tremendous speed. Do I think he can go wire-to-wire in the Derby? Not really. But you never know, he may have some other speed ahead of him and the race could set up perfect. For now, he deserves a spot on this list. He has earned it.

6. Visionaire: Looking forward to the Blue Grass. He still has a lot to prove, but I like his pedigree, trainer and closing ability.

7. Eight Belles: Don't be surprised if Larry Jones shocks everyone and enters her in the Derby. She is incredibly talented and is on quite a roll. The Fantasy win was very impressive considering her poor start. I would love to see her in the mix.

 

 

 

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