Well, we are finally here. Time to make Derby selections. Considering the inconsistency of many of the top 3-year-olds, inexperience of some of the contenders (mainly Big Brown), and trying to decipher how these synthetic track horses will run on the Churchill dirt, this year's handicapping challenge has been daunting.

But after being around the horses and trainers in Louisville, and doing my best to break down this race from a handicapping standpoint, here is what I have come up with:

Throw outs

Adriano (15): I know a lot of people like him because of Prado taking the mount over Monba, but I can't see it. He's coming off a six-week layoff, hasn't proven he likes dirt, has five sub-80 Beyers and I stood in the winner's circle after Lane's End and had the connections tell me he wasn't a Derby horse. If Adriano comes in the top three, I will be ripping up every one of my tickets.

Anak Nakal (3): Bottom of exotics at very best.

Big Truck (7): No thanks.

Bob Black Jack (13): He's a sprinter.

Cowboy Cal (17): Too much early pace for him to be a factor.

Gayego (19): Rare that you can toss the Arkansas Derby winner, but I have no problem doing it here, especially from post 19.

Recapturetheglory (18): I think he finishes last.

Z Humor (11): Hasn't been close this year.

Won't Win, But Will be in my Exotics

Cool Coal Man (1): Has a win at Churchill and will probably be pretty close to the pace.  I like his experience and pedigree, so wouldn't be surprised to see him finish in the money.

Denis of Cork (16): It's pretty clear that he should have run in Rebel and needed an extra race, but has looked good all week. Borel will have to work his magic.

Eight Belles (5): She's the wild card in here. Talent is undeniable, but will 10 furlongs be too much? Probably.

Monba (14): Pletcher is flying under the radar for once, so maybe this is his year. Like that this one has a win at Churchill and is bred to go the distance. Could be in contention, but not sure he is fast enough to put him on top.

Smooth Air (12): Always seems to be in the mix and closing style could be perfect for the projected early speed. Not sure about getting the 1 ¼ miles, but it I wouldn't be surprised to see him get third or fourth.

Tale of Ekati (2): Not crazy about him, but respect his ability to win Wood and is bred for this race.

Visionaire (8): Another closer who always seems to be right there. Matz factor too.

Z Fortune (6): This is one that might be sitting on a big race. Will likely move forward from Arkansas Derby and may be peaking at the right time. Asmussen is quietly confident about him. He'll be in a lot of my tickets.

Best of the Best

As you can see, this leaves Pyro, Big Brown, Court Vision and Colonel John as my top picks.

Pyro (9) has been training very well at Churchill. I know I wrote he would be unable to recover after the Blue Grass disaster, but I have changed my mind, somewhat. He has proven himself as one of only two horses with two prep wins this year, has two plus 100 Beyers and the early speed should set up well for him. Asmussen has him ready to fire again. Not my top pick, but he will be in a lot of exotics.

Big Brown (20): This is how I play him: Key him on top in a trifecta and leave him out of every other ticket. He either gets over from the 20-hole, puts himself in good position at the half-mile pole and wins by three or he gets jostled early, makes a late bid, tires in the stretch and runs out of the money. It's one or the other. My instincts tell me it's the latter. All the arrogance and cockiness from Dutrow will come back to haunt him. Remember, it's been since 1915 that a horse has won the Derby off three starts. And at 3-1, he's not worth a big play. But because of his talent he is worth a few bucks in exotics.

Court Vision (4): In my Derby analysis for the Blood-Horse magazine I picked this one to win it. I wrote that article last Saturday before being at Churchill and seeing post position draw. I am still very high on him and haven't changed my mind. Here's why I like him: Has a win over Churchill surface, has never done worse than third in six starts, always closes strong, has Churchill's all-time leading trainer in Bill Mott, has best jockey in the nation (Gomez) and is crying out for the extra distance. Love his pedigree. Plus, the added blinkers will likely get him more involved early on, which was the problem in Fountain of Youth and Wood.

Look, his speed numbers aren't great and that is a legitimate concern. But I think he likes the track and will be flying at the end. He will be in every one of my trifecta tickets. But...

After seeing Colonel John (10) all week and taking everything else into consideration, if you put a gun to my head, he is my top choice. To me, the fact that he has never run over natural dirt is no longer a question mark, based on how he has looked this week. His bullet work on April 27 proved that. Eoin Harty is one of the most underrated trainers around, this horse has never done worse than second in six starts, and does everything right. Love Tiznow as sire, and being the big Point Given fan that I am, like his Turkoman line even more.

All signs point toward this horse is sitting on a big race. He'll be right there at the end, and should have enough closing kick to get it done.  

All that being said, here is how my $100 will be spent. As you know, I am an exotic fan. The pools will be huge. This is where I'll take my stabs:

$1 trifecta - 4,10/4,9,10/1,2,5,6,8,9,10,12,14,16,20 - ($34)

$1 trifecta - 20/4,9,10/1,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,12,14,16 - ($30)

$2 exacta - 4,10/1,2,5,6,8,9,12,14,16 -  ($36)

Good Luck to everyone!!

After hearing much of the public opinion and reviewing the comments on this blog, it is fair to say that most of us disagree on who will win the Kentucky Derby. In fact, admitting that we disagree is probably the only thing we will agree on!

With that being said, let's turn our attention for a moment on not WHO we will bet in the Derby, but HOW we will bet the race. Often, devising a strategy on how to bet is just as important as finding the winner.

For those of you who are seasoned handicappers, you already know that the only way to come out ahead in this game in the long run is to stay disciplined. Stay away from exotics, bet heavy win or show tickets on horses we really like, and resist temptation to play multiple racetracks.

Despite knowing these facts, like most people, I do not have that discipline. I have pretty much conceded that I will lose in the long run, trading that in for the rush I get when I score a big exacta or trifecta. The first time I cashed an IRS ticket, I knew I was hooked on exotics and would never be the same.

If you are an exotic sucker like me, the Derby is your playground. The enormous pools are way too much to resist, especially this year, when we are likely to have 17 or 18 horses at double-digit odds. Can you imagine the superfecta if Big Brown and/or Colonel John run off the board? It will be a lottery ticket.

Knowing all that, tell me your favorite Derby betting strategies. Do you key horses in trifectas? Pool you money with friends and bet the super? Bet numbers? Or do you stay disciplined and put a few hundred to show on one horse? What is your biggest Derby hit?

In years past I have put most of my money into exactas, considering the size of the pools will give you a very nice return on investment. The last one I hit was Barbaro/Bluegrass Cat, which paid over $400 for $2. Afleet Alex cost me a huge one when he couldn't get up over Closing Argument.

I usually take my key horse and box him with four or five others. For some reason, this year, I think I will be more tempted to go for the trifectas and supers. That is based on how wide open this year seems to be.

Luckily, I still have one week until I have to make up my mind.

Okay, so three-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert does not have anyone on this year's Classic trail, so far. But thanks to Indian Blessing, he does have the best 3-year-old filly in the nation. Undefeated in five starts, the 2007 juvenile champion will look to continue her domination March 8 in the $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks.

On Feb. 29 I caught up with Baffert to ask him about the daughter of Indian Charlie - and a couple of other subjects.

JS: How is Indian Blessing training and what changes have you noticed in her since she has turned 3?

BB: She is looking and training very well. She hasn't missed a beat. The good ones handle everything that you throw at them. She is aggressive and enjoys training.

I think she has grown a little since last year; she has great conformation and is just a gorgeous filly. She is very relaxed.

JS: Thus far, Indian Blessing has had the lead into the stretch in every one of her five races. Are you looking forward to seeing how she reacts when she has to fight for the lead?

BB: Well, in her last race (Feb. 9 Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds), there was a fast filly in there that challenged her early. I thought she sat off of her nicely. But she just loves to run and to separate around that turn. She is so talented I think she can handle anything.

JS: After the Fair Grounds Oaks what are your plans for Indian Blessing?

BB: Ultimately we're hoping to make it to the (Kentucky) Oaks. But I'm not sure what we're going to do in between. She's doing so well that I don't want to map anything out. I'll let her tell me when she's ready to run again. I've learned that you can't put a square peg in a round hole. We'll just see what happens.

One thing I know is that I'll try to keep her on dirt. The synthetic surfaces are too unpredictable.

JS: You have had some very talented fillies in your career. How does Indian Blessing compare with your best.

BB: I've had three top fillies, Chilukki, Silverbulletday and now Indian Blessing. Chilukki was more like Indian Blessing in that she was extremely fast and had brilliant speed. They both liked to get the lead and just run away. Silverbulletday was totally different. She liked to sit off the pace and then the rider could just push a button and she'd go. She had great speed, but could contain it a little better.

JS: Speaking of Silverbulletday, you ran her in the 1999 Belmont Stakes. Is there a possibility that Indian Blessing could run against the boys some day?

BB: I didn't nominate her for the Classics because I didn't want that temptation. We're just having fun with her and want to keep her happy and healthy. It's hard enough to get a good one like this, so we'll enjoy her without thinking about the Derby, Preakness or Belmont. My clients know how lucky they are to have her, so I think we're content.

JS: Your name is noticeably absent from the Kentucky Derby contenders list. Do you have any late-blooming 3-year-olds that we should know about?

BB: I have a couple good-looking ones, but I'm not going to go to the Derby if I have no shot to win it. The thing about the Derby is that you can't make it happen. You train them and if they are good enough you'll know. You can't push it.

JS: Your name was also noticeably missing from the 2008 Hall of Fame nominees list. Does it bother you that you were left off?

BB: Well, first of all, I think Carl Nafzger and the others were all deserving. But I really don't get caught up in it. It's one of those things, if it happens, it happens. It's out of my control. I wasn't upset. My mother was really the only one that was (laughs). But she was just being a mother. I've learned over the years that if it's out of my hands, then don't worry about it.

** In a related handicapping side note, for all those reading this blog before the afternoon of March 1, a little birdie told me that he likes a horse called, Screen to Screen, in race 1 at Santa Anita on Saturday. He is a 3-year-old maiden that happens to be trained by none other than, Bob Baffert. Tweet Tweet.

As I made my way out to Keeneland to bet Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Feb. 10, I couldn't help but think about what a guilty pleasure it is. In between thoughts of cashing a huge ticket on May 3, I tried to fight off all the reasons why I should not "waste" money on this ultimate longshot of a wager. Buying diapers and formula for my six-month old son, surprising my wife with a nice Valentine's Day gift, and getting the car a much-needed tune-up all seemed like rational reasons to turn around. Because let's be honest, in most cases, the Future Wager is the ultimate sucker bet.

The reasons not to bet the Future Wager are many. 1 - The Derby is three months away and most of the horses won't even reach the starting gate, either because they get injured or are not good enough (Last year only 10 of the 23 made it). 2 - Many times the Derby winner pays out better odds on race day than were offered in the first leg of the Future Wager (That has happened four of the nine years - Giacomo, Smarty Jones, War Emblem, Charismatic). 3 - More than any year in history, there are several horses who have made most or all of their starts on a synthetic surface, making it very difficult to handicap in February how they will handle the dirt at Churchill Downs in May.

Of course, all of those sane reasons did not stop me from proceeding to Keeneland. In the end, I placed my bets for the same reason that I wager on races every week: Because it's fun.

I do have one hard and fast rule that I will not break when placing a Future Wager: Do not bet a horse that is less than 20-1. Because of the reasons mentioned above, plunking down cash on one of the favorites makes little sense to me. Even though it is hard not be impressed by Pyro (5-1), War Pass (6-1) and even Court Vision (15-1), the value is not  there for those horses. And needless to say, it's not there for a "field" bet either, which to me, at odds of 3-1, is a ridiculous wager.

Because it is value that I am after, I waited until late on Sunday to place my wagers, so that I was almost gaurenteed to get more than my required 20-1 odds. In the end, I decided on three:

1 - Anak Nakal: The lesser known of Nick Zito's Derby contenders, the Victory Gallop colt is bred to run all day. When I spoke with Zito last month he could not say enough good things about this guy, who was professional-looking in his Kentucky Jockey Club (gr. II) win Nov. 24. Because he has not raced in more than two and a half months, his value could be at an all-time high. If he wins the Feb. 24 Fountain of Youth (gr. II) at Gulfstream, you can be sure you won't get 33-1 on him in Pool 2, and most likely not on Derby day either.

2 - Z Humor: The same can be said about this Distorted Humor colt, who is likely to face Monba, Court Vision and Anak Nakal in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II). If he pulls the upset, his 45-1 odds will certainly plummet. Even though he was beaten by War Pass and Pyro in in the Champagne (gr. I), I liked his determination down the stretch, just as he showed in his Delta Jackpot (gr. III) dead heat victory Dec. 7. This colt may turn out to be the best in the barn of Bill Mott, Churchill Downs' all-time leading winner who is bound to win a Derby one of these years.

3 - Cowboy Cal - A bit of a risk because he has done his best running on grass, but the Giant's Causeway colt has trained super on dirt and there is no questioning his talent. He will get his next challenge Feb. 16 when he faces, among others, Cannonball, in the Hallandale Beach at Gulfstream. At odds of 26-1, he was worth a shot in Pool 1.

I laid down $25 on each one. Was there better value somewhere out there? You tell me.