Below is a list of the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners and where they finished in their final prep race:

2007 - Street Sense, 2^nd Blue Grass Stakes

2006 - Barbaro, 1^st Florida Derby

2005 - Giacomo, 4^th Santa Anita Derby

2004 - Smarty Jones, 1^st Arkansas Derby

2003 - Funny Cide, 2^nd Wood Memorial

2002 - War Emblem, 1^st Illinois Deby

2001 - Monarchos, 2^nd Wood Memorial

2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus, 1^st Wood Memorial

1999 - Charismatic, 1^st Lexington Stakes

1998 - Real Quiet, 2^nd Santa Anita Derby

1997 - Silver Charm, 2^nd Santa Anita Derby

1996 - Grindstone, 2^nd Arkansas Derby

1995 - Thunder Gulch, 4^th Blue Grass

1994 - Go For Gin, 2^nd Wood Memorial

1993 - Sea Hero, 4^th Blue Grass

1992 - Lil E. Tee, 2^nd Arkansas Derby

1991 - Strike the Gold, 1^st Blue Grass

1990 - Unbridled, 3^rd Blue Grass

1989 - Sunday Silence, 1^st Santa Anita Derby

1988 - Winning Colors, 1^st Santa Anita Derby

Why do I bring this up and why is this list relevant? Well, after watching Pyro finish 10^th in a 12-horse field in last week's Blue Grass, there is no way I can continue to back this horse for the Derby. Look at the list above. Only three times has the eventual Derby winner finished worse than third in their final prep, and all three of those horses came in fourth. In fact, according to information provided by Steve Haskin, the last Derby winner to finish worse than fourth in his final Derby prep was Iron Leige in 1957, and he finished fifth. None of the others threw in a clunker anywhere close to what Pyro did in the Blue Grass. Not even close.

I have been a lukewarm Pyro backer for the last few weeks, primarily because of the tremendous turn of foot he showed in two Louisiana preps. But unlike those who are full-fledged Pyro fans, I am not willing to excuse his dreadful performance in the Blue Grass. I can't.

Pyro fans will say he didn't like the Polytrack. And I will agree with that, as it was obvious that he was not tracking well. But not liking the surface is one thing, and just being completely flat is a different story. As far as I was concerned, he didn't need to win the Blue Grass, he just had to be competitive. And he wasn't.

There was something going on with Pyro in the Blue Grass, and it was a lot more than not liking Polytrack. I'm not sure if he was sick, injured or something else, but whatever the situation, it wasn't good. And with only three more weeks until Derby Day, I can no longer in good conscience back this horse.

With War Pass, at least he threw in his clunker two races before the Derby. We were able to see him come back strong in the Wood, which is reason enough to at least consider him in three weeks. But with Pyro, as talented as he is, it's not happening.

Again, look at the list above. It is there is black and white. You must run well in your final prep race to get the roses.

Pyro won't win the Derby.

***By the way, I would be remiss if I didn't do a little bragging here. After all, what's the fun of having a blog is you can't gloat a little? I flat-out nailed the Blue Grass, win and exacta. You're welcome.

With less than four weeks left until Derby day, and only a couple of important preps remaining, things are finally beginning to take shape.

What did we learn last weekend? Well, for one, Colonel John is legit. The son of Tiznow quieted all those who claimed El Gato Malo would have won the Sham had it not been for a poor trip. Fact is, Colonel John is just a better horse right now and is the undeniable best of the West. Only one question remains: How will he like the Churchill dirt?

The disappointing part of the Santa Anita was that Yankee Bravo, thanks to Bob Black Jacks drifting in at the top of the lane and cutting him off, is probably not going to make the first weekend in May. It's a shame, because I think this horse has a lot of talent and would have liked the 1 ¼ miles. He certainly was unlucky last weekend, but as we all know, luck is part of the game.

On the East Coast, we learned that War Pass' Tampa Bay Derby was in fact a throw out. The 2-year-old champion came back in the Wood and ran a big race. Had it not been for a rabbit pressing the pace in the early going, War Pass probably would have had enough left to hold of Tale of Ekati.

For me, having War Pass as at least a player in the Derby will make things a lot more interesting, so I'm glad. That being said, I still don't think he gets the 1 ¼ miles.

Take nothing away from Tale of Ekati, he ran a professional race and showed a lot of heart along the rail to get up and win. I just thought he had the perfect stalking trip behind a very quick pace, and things will not set up that well for him in the Derby.

As you know from my past blogs, I am a big Court Vision fan. And for the second straight time, I came away from his third-place finish very impressed. It was obvious from his poor start and from what Garrett Gomez said afterwards, that Court Vision did not take to the track. He was spinning his wheels the whole time. Most horses would quit under those circumstances, but he did not. In fact, if there was another sixteenth of a mile, Court Vision wins easily. I still say he will be a major player on Derby day.

The Illinois Derby told me nothing, other than confirming the fact that Denis of Cork is a toss out come next month. Recapturetheglory, while a nice story, will be nothing more than a pacesetter in the Derby.

Speaking of pacesetters, it seems that the Derby will now be loaded with early speed. Between War Pass, Bob Black Jack, Recapturetheglory, and possibly Big Brown, there will be some mean opening fractions. I say the race is shaping up for a big-time closer, ie. Pyro, Court Vision, Colonel John, Visionaire, Smooth Air, and maybe even Tomcito.

That being said, here is my top 7 with a month to go.

1. Pyro: Slow times, low Beyers, can't beat War Pass, blah, blah, blah. Right now, for me, he has been the most impressive 3-year-old. I can only go by what I saw, and other than Colonel John, is the only one that has proven his worth two races in a row. Blue Grass will be very interesting, but unless he doesn't show up, Pyro is still the one to beat in the Derby as far as I'm concerned.

2. Colonel John: Hey, I'm a believer. I love his heart, he has one of the most underrated trainers in the world, and he has answered every question. Like I said, his workouts on the Churchill surface will be the key.

3. Court Vision: I know, I know, I'm an idiot for having this high on my list, right? Wrong. Again he showed a powerful closing kick despite spotting the field 10-15 lengths. He is all heart. With the Derby setting up for a closer, he will be a major player. I still want to see him closer to the pace, but Mott will get him there.

4. Big Brown: No denying, he looks to have the most talent of this class. But, again, three races coming into the Derby probably isn't enough. I can't argue that he'll be a factor, but he wouldn't be the first horse coming off a big prep win to flounder. I'm still not completely sold.

5. War Pass: Look, he's a champion and he has tremendous speed. Do I think he can go wire-to-wire in the Derby? Not really. But you never know, he may have some other speed ahead of him and the race could set up perfect. For now, he deserves a spot on this list. He has earned it.

6. Visionaire: Looking forward to the Blue Grass. He still has a lot to prove, but I like his pedigree, trainer and closing ability.

7. Eight Belles: Don't be surprised if Larry Jones shocks everyone and enters her in the Derby. She is incredibly talented and is on quite a roll. The Fantasy win was very impressive considering her poor start. I would love to see her in the mix.