Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

sodapopkid — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 23:04:40 GMT

"WOW", did you all notice Zenyatta's sire's stud fee? It is way more than the other fillie's sire's stud fee is. Street Cry 137.ooo, for Aus. which is 127.ooo in US dollars, Medaglio d'oro RA sire is 88.ooo in US dollars......Now tell me she ain't the queen, Gosh, she is making Street Cry happy and proud, and making Darley richer.............

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Tim G — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 20:17:03 GMT

You did mention that he worked well at OP also but hung.

Apologize, thought you were one who said he didn't seem to like the track.

Didn't get there in time to see him? I'm just curious which of the employees is giving you these 'updates'.

Why would I get mad if you're there? I only care about the ones that MEAN something to me. Not a hanger on as far as other horses works. Plus I see the ones that I WANT to see.

Sure talk about whatever, but if you're such a Derby/Oaks guy/girl why talk about a horse that may not even go??? Ever hear of keeping on task? I'm not sure that you need to keep us posted either. Most of what ANY one of us posts seems to be held until the BH posts their story.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Billy's Empire — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 19:27:46 GMT

Phony, stay classy! You will see the queen soon enough.

Tim, you got the wrong guy pal. I never once mentioned that Dublin did not like the track. In fact, I have never mentioned anything except for the fact that I want to see him go by horses. I get updates on Dublin all of the time, at least 2 or 3 days a week. You must of been referring to someone else. I was there this morning, and I will be there tomorrow, and almost every other day in the morning. Dont be mad!!

Last, I can comment on whatever I want to comment on. Last I checked, it was Jason's blog.

I am just going to play the wait and see approach. You all wait, and then you will see. Don't doubt me.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 19:18:14 GMT

Draynay

Rachel's work was awesome so some say......Don't you think it's time for her to step up? Forget the lady's race on Derby weekend and point towards the Stephen Foster. Let's see her finally try and prove herself against real G-1 horses.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

PhonyJJ — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 18:42:45 GMT

Billy Empire: Hahahahha, What chance in a million do you believe that you will see Ra on any race track by Oaks day??????..........."DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH"..............

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Tim G — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 18:13:16 GMT

Well Billy if you were there then you also saw Dublin work. You were one of the guys/ladies who said he didn't like the track, right?

They wrote up a story on RA, she's not set to go on the undercard so WHY do you feel you HAVE to comment about it?

Pom, my point exactly. Dublin was AT CD, his work was a direct work prep for the Derby. Eskendereya, is a totally different horse. I'm not up on his work patterns. Todd doesnt' always work his as fast as Wayne tends to do. Part of Dublin's work was to see just how he's handling the track after his surgery and return from that. But Dublin had fast works at OP and unfortunately those didn't always play out in the afternoon. He was, however, doing what Wayne wanted him to do and as I said before, he didn't necessarily want to win the Ark Derby, just make a good showing and progress.

I'm all for Dublin, have said it over and over.

However, Eskendereya is the projected favorite and lets wait to see how he works at CD.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

PomDeTerre — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:30:42 GMT

Tim-now you went and put dray in between a rock and a hard pace. Dray says: Dublin don't like CD. Dray says fastest work wins. Dublin breezes 59? According to dray, he should win, but he doesn't like the track, and he hangs. OMG I'm sooo confused. You need to gIve him a shovel to dig outta that one!

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Billy's Empire — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:19:38 GMT

Dray was talking about works, he loves Rachel, so I thought. let's add fuels to the fire... Sorry Timmy. I was there this morning. She looks awesome. No other blog to really post on right now, so take it and like it.. HA

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Tim G — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 15:11:47 GMT

Well Dublin worked 5f in 59.20, breezing this a.m.

According to the world of Dray (and actually most horsemen, cataclysmic coincidence)that should contradict those who say he doesn't like CD?

Billy? Why? Major Shakeups in the Top Ten in the DERBY...sheesh.

Oaks day, belongs to the Oaks entrants, if you're a local you know that. The undercard? Remains to be seen but isn't the subject.

Slew, you're spot on. Like I said to jayjay, I'd rather have racing luck than the greatest horse on the planet and crummy luck in a pp draw or race or the days/weeks leading up to the big day.

These guys have skill or they wouldn't be training for long, keeping clients or making it to a race that requires graded stakes earnings. Who just has the touch in the Derby and the luck has been demonstrated by a handful.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Billy's Empire — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 13:45:08 GMT

With regular exercise rider Dominic Terry aboard, and according to Daily Racing Form clocker Mike Welsch, Rachel Alexandra went in splits of 12.56, 24.28, 36.16, 47.67, and 59.29 seconds before galloping out seven furlongs in 1:24.41 and a mile in 1:37.76.

Rachel is ready for Oaks Day. Get your popcorn ready folks!! She will be back in the winner's circle. What a work today!!

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Slew — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 12:26:29 GMT

Strange...all the big time trainers, and all the prep Derby winners..and all the highly touted horses...and exactly WHO won the Derby last year? None of them. It still takes skill and LUCK to win the Kentucky Derby. There are no "sure bets". It remains a twenty horse stampede....and it takes a lot of guts to get the glory.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

jayjay — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 05:26:01 GMT

My angle when I'm handicapping the workouts (for any race other than the KD) is I look for horses whose workout are spaced 7 days apart, specially young horses. I said other than KD because I know that trainers most often than not tries different ways on their horses because they'll be running in a very different race than your normal race. I never pay attn to how fast the workout is, as long as it's spaced out a week. Like Tim G said, trainers have a feel of how the horses are because they are with them all the time so they know what the horses like and dislike. I can't question a trainer ever because they are the ones that physically work with the horses.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Aluminaut — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 03:19:08 GMT

If Caracortado gets in the Derby, he'll be the "wiseguy" horse.

Scarface, ya know.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Tim G — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 02:24:05 GMT

jayjay, he bets nothing but chalk. Have that info from a reliable source.

Racing luck and lucking out on a bet are two different things. I think it's hard to believe it's skill when all a guy bets on are the chalk bets.

$10 says that last post isn't dray or he has a misconception of what reverse psychology is.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

jayjay — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 01:55:41 GMT

Draynay is going to bet on Esky come derby day. All he's doing is making people dislike the horse so that he'll get a 5/2 or 3/1 odds on him.

Tim G: Luck is something that Draynay doesn't get. I still don't understand is handicapping skills , seems to me he relies a lot of paper info. I'm sure everyone has hit their longshots by just betting a horse, not reading anything about the horse but just hunch and pure luck, they hit the big payout. Like last years Derby, I hit MTB for $5 to win only because I liked Calvin Borel, and I almost got all my loses lol.

Draynay, have you ever won a bet ? I mean seriously...even a 2$ win bet ? You comment on everyone's pick but the ones that you have picked have never even placed or show let alone win. It's time to post your picks and let us know WHY you think your pick(s) will win and stop this babbling about everyone else's picks.

Again, for me, depending on the draws are L@L / Esky and longshots are Icebox and Dean's Kitten. If they lose, I'd rather lose money on my picks than lose money because I listen to some poser online :)

I got a feeling I'll make some money on Icebox though, I'm liking his chances more and more everyday. Rain or shine, I'll bet on Icebox.

Peace!

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

draynay — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 01:06:17 GMT

Great writing Jason. I have seen the light. Esky is a lock. Congrats to you Mr. Pletcher on your first Derby win.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

PomDeTerre — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 00:59:45 GMT

excuse the typo pease-

Ridiculous issue.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

PomDeTerre — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 00:58:51 GMT

Wise guy Derby winner? IMHO I'd have to say Funny Cide over Empire Maker.

As for dray's workout beliefs, I'l just make one more comment & then I can waste any more of my life on his foolishness. In a word:

SWALE

no, it wasn't the Derby work; it was the 46 and change blow out after that cost him the Preakness and probably the Triple Crown. I'm resting my case on this ricuous issue.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Lil Darlin — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 00:10:21 GMT

I just re-read my post and it didn't come across quite right...so to be clear, Esky is a valuable horse no matter what, Derby or no Derby. However, I think the aura of being a Derby favorite just adds to the whole package, and if he's a Derby winner, well, sodapopkid is right on about his price increase. They'll get a nice chunk of change for him regardless, but if he runs up the track in the Derby (unlikely IMO) he loses his domination factor.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Tim G — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 23:59:55 GMT

By the way Dray, I think you just contradicted yourself. If you don't believe one trainer does anything different from any other then every trainer who's entered it should have at least one winner?

I'm not sure exactly WHAT you're trying to say.

They do things different, maybe Todd just hasn't hit on exactly the right formula for the right horse on the right day and maybe the racing gods haven't chosen to smile on him. But, I believe he'll get it. If not this year then the next or the next. Took Wayne 10 years to win his first. Hey maybe he'll start a new streak...Like he said, he taught Todd most of what Todd knows, just not everything HE knows about winning a Derby.

Rather be lucky any day.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Tim G — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 23:14:09 GMT

Well Dray since I'm not around Bob's barn I couldn't tell you. And once again Mr. High IQ it's not THEN in that context it's THAN, get it?

I know for a fact that most horses are trained the same but there is always that slight difference between trainers. Some due to their personality, some due to their work ethic and some of it due to the style of the horse and the NEEDS of that horse, some of it due to the owners themselves.

As far as Derby winners, how many trainers are 0fer? A BIG part of it is luck. Did Baffert have the best bred, best looking, best horse when Real Quiet won? Probably not but he lucked out and won the Derby (with the wrong horse from his barn). You try to get the horse right, fit and get him in the race, hope his class shows through and then hope you get the breaks. That is the main thing that is out of your control when that gate opens.

But I'll tell you for sure, Todd wins a heckuva lot of money with those young horses that he doesn't know how to train. Like Jason said in his current blog, like I said a day or so ago, Todd is a helluva trainer and the horses winning right now are young horses that HE developed, not ones that someone bought finished.

That's my point to you. There are hundreds of trainers who have never won the race. The trainers like Todd who have huge #'s of horses may have more in the race due to those #'s but in reality when a guy has 30 horses in his barn and is 0-8 that's just as bad of an average. You cannot just train a horse to win ONE race. You try to train them to win as many as possible.

Who praytell should owners give a horse to?

One race does not a lifetime make.

But why are you asking me, you're a world champion handicapper and pseudo-trainer, go ask one of your MANY connections.

(excuse me while I try to catch my breath from laughing).

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

Russ — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 22:49:58 GMT

I was at Palm Meadows Sat for Eskendereya's work left there think he is a very good horse but the one that was ultra impressive is Mission Impazible. This could be the horse no one tis talking about. He looks like a bear.Rajiv is on fire Todd P on fire mix this guy I just witnessed....Hello...

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

sodapopkid — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 20:13:23 GMT

Too bad they cant' sell Esky now. If he wins the derby his selling price will double or triple.

Whether he wins the derby or not, I think he is still a good investment.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

draynay — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 19:58:40 GMT

Rock, we are talking about workouts before the Derby not before preps! Try to keep up. JOE MI has no chance of hitting the board any win bet money send to me I will hold it for you. Tim, maybe you haven't read my post but I have always said Mr. Pletcher is a very good trainer. However, I have also said he has no idea how to get young colts ready for the Triple Crown races and he doesn't. Mr. Pletcher himself will tell you he is try new things this year. He might as well because everything he did in the past failed. Something new can't be any worse but it tells me hasn't figured it out and he won't until he wins. My point has always been why does anyone give him a young colt if they dream of winning the Derby? He doesn't know how to win it so why give him your young horse? What does he have to do ? 0 for 30 maybe 0 for 40 before owners get a clue ? Tim, answer me one question. What does Mr. Pletcher do different then say Baffert to get a horse ready for the Derby? Name just one thing.

re: Major Shake-Ups in New Top 10

JerseyBoy — Sun, 18 Apr 2010 19:51:29 GMT

In defence of Draynay.

Please do not be too hard on Draynay. He boasts a degree in animal science from Drayno University.