Oh That Crazy Derby

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

mz — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 20:28:03 GMT

Or grandson!

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

mz — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 19:20:49 GMT

Laz: I agree. Beautiful guy. Here's hoping his son will do him proud on Saturday.

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 18:26:47 GMT

Didn't win the Derby but won the Queen's Plate in I believe only his third start (maybe 4th). He was one of my all time favorites. should have been HOY based on his season when he won the BCC. That race might have been the deepest Classic ever. OL

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

mz — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 15:03:29 GMT

Hey Lazmannick: Awesome Again never actually did get a chance at the Derby when he was still in training. Maybe this is his year to do it all?

(Sorry: sometimes my fingers move faster than my brain!)

And Ted: how the heck do you find those songs? Is "trolling through Youtube" part of your job description? If so, do you need an assistant?

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

JOAN/JOHN — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 12:02:24 GMT

The HEADLINES on the net and in the newspapers are going to read Mission Impazible WOW WOW WOW destroys derby field in a mud romp. Joan and John

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Ted from LA — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 04:54:00 GMT

The Man in Black pulled a Sinatra and did it his way...

www.youtube.com/watch

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Ted from LA — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 04:49:58 GMT

What song is it do you want to hear MZ?

www.youtube.com/watch

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

tcc — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 01:53:15 GMT

Jason:

Will you be doing both the Oaks and the Derby on THS?

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

jayjay — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 00:53:13 GMT

I love ICEBOX's position, that means Jose will be pulling him back at the start and avoid trouble. You'll see him move out on the clear on the first turn and run like a freight train on the homestretch, with L@L, Super Saver and Dean's Kitten in pursuit!! :)

Is Draynay still talking smack about Zenyatta ?? I posted a comment but haven't seen it yet on the blog. I'm basically wondering why RA won't run on poly ?? If she's really a "super" horse then there shouldn't be any problems with whatever track she runs on because she's a super horse. I remember Jackson saying last year that RA will never race on synthetics and I guess that's okay but Zenyatta not running on dirt means she's scared ?? We all know what RA can do on dirt, why not show the world how "super" she is and run her against Z in california ?? I guess that'll never happen because well, she's just not that good :)

At least Zenyatta have already won on both dirt and plastic, have beaten the best male horses in the world last year. For me, that's more than enough and she doesn't need to prove anything anymore :)

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

LAZMANNICK — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 23:43:53 GMT

Awesome Again - can get the distance, keeping his shoes

That's if he's not off servicing a mare somewhere. LOL

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Mike Relva — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 21:25:17 GMT

DRAYNAY

you recently stated that Zenyatta's connections were turning her into "a Peppers' Pride". First,PP wasn't a bad horse,period! Second,PP never won the Breeders' Classic like you SWORE ZENYATTA HAD NO SHOT AT REMEMBER?

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

GunBow — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 20:29:00 GMT

After things went so smoothly for most of the last few months, wow has it unraveled this past week! Gone are Esky and Endorsement due to injury(where there's smoke..), and Rule and Interactif by choice. Now, the 2 favorites get the rail and #20! I just hope that all the horses currently in the field remain sound and make it to the starting gate. But at this point, nothing would surprise me, not even a repeat of I Want Revenge.

The draw has definitely tempered my enthusiasm for Lookin at Lucky. For a horse that has had trouble his last 2 races, including being checked on the rail in his last, the #1 post is just about as bad as it can get. But heck, in the last 3 Derbys we've had two horses under Borel skim the rail for almost the entire trip and win(Street Sense and Mine That Bird) and a horse break from post 20 and win(Big Brown). Does Calvin have exclusive rights to a successful rail trip? Why can't Garrett work out a good trip from the inside?

The major problem with the rail for a midpack runner like Lookin at Lucky is that he will basically be penned in for the first half or so of the race. Lookin at Lucky will be penned in horizontally, being on the rail with the entire field to his outside. And he will likely be penned in vertically, with half the field to his front and half the field to his rear. Working out a trip will be challenging.

Garrett might have to decide to use Lucky a little more early in the race to get out from underneath the field and take a position amongst the 2nd flight of horses that will be stalking Line of David and Conveyance. From there, Garrett will have to decide whether to try and work his way more to the outside or hug the rail and hope the seas part like they have for Calvin. If Lucky is more forwardly placed, and there are few horses in front of him, the possibility of the rail opening up will be greater; as the speed horses tire, they are likely to drift to the outside. Of course, riding the rail and hoping things open up coming into the stretch is exactly how Garrett and Lucky got into trouble in the SA Derby. Would he dare risk it again?

Instead of pushing early, Garrett could decide to take a hold of Lucky early, let the field settle, and then find a gap where Lucky can settle and possible be allowed to move to the outside. The problem with this is that by the time the field settles and Garrett finds a pocket, Lucky could be 15+ lengths behind in 16th. And while Lucky does have nice acceleration and a good kick, such a decision would waste Lucky's tactical speed and probably give him too much work to do. The #1 post doesn't preclude Lucky winning, but it does make the task more challenging. Baffert and Garrett have alot to think about.

As for Sidney's Candy, I don't think the #20 post is that bad. Yes, it will make Talamo be more aggressive early; Talamo will need to get Sidney away from the gate quickly and establish position near the front of the 2nd flight of horses behind Line of David and Conveyance. Talamo will not have the luxury of allowing Sidney to settle on his own or "find himself" early. To avoid being stuck 10 wide, Talamo needs to have Sidney clear in front of horses like Discretely Mine, Jackson Bend, Dublin, Awesome Act, and Mission Impazible, the horses between Sidney and Conveyance(12 post). Because there are alot of stalkers in the field(horses that will be in the 2nd flight), Talamo will have to be proactive in ensuring that Sidney breaks well and isn't stuck wide among this 2nd flight.

Talamo needing to be provactive might not be a bad thing. If Sidney is going to win, he is going to have to take advantage of his speed. With a better post, Sadler and Talamo might have been more open to letting Sidney dictate the race; so if Sidney were not to break well or take a while to get into stride, Talamo would have remained patient, even if it meant that Sidney fell back to midpack.

However, in my opinion, I don't believe Sidney is going to win coming from 9th or 10th. In that post 20 will force Talamo to be more aggressive and put Sidney into the race, the draw might not be such a disaster for Team Sidney after all. I've always felt that if Sidney is going to win, he will need to work out a trip like Affirmed had in 78', settling in the front of the 2nd flight of horses about 3 lengths behind the duelling frontrunners. As long as Line of David and Conveyance don't run off and set ridiculous fractions and ruin the chances of any runner near the lead, Sidney should be able to work out a stalking trip that will put him in position to pounce first, and possibly deliver a coup de grace. While I think Sidney will get tired late in the stretch, if he's able to separate from the closers and build enough of a lead, he might just be able to hang on.

That's the only way I have been able to see Sidney winning, even before the post. I just didn't see him winning from midpack. In that post 20 takes away the midpack option, I actually think it might be a blessing. With post 20, Sadler and Talamo can't fool around. They will need to be proactive. It goes without saying, of course, that a slow start will be catastrophic.

With Esky out(along with Endorement, Rule, and Interactif), Lucky on the rail and Sidney in post 20, the Derby has become a much more challenging handicapping exercise. As long as Esky, Lucky, and Sidney were all in the field, I really believed that one of the 3 would win the Derby.

With Esky out, I don't think Lucky and Sidney are so much better than everyone else that they can overcome a subpar trip. Since their post positions increase the likelihood of a subpar trip, my confidence that either Lucky or Sidney will win has suffered a corresponding drop. And I've always felt that outside of Esky, Lucky, and Sidney, the race was completely wide open. Throw in the possibility of rain, and there are many similarities to last year.

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

mz — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 19:25:33 GMT

Awesome Again - can get the distance, keeping his shoes

Stately Victor - moving ahead wonderfully at the right time

Devil May Care - only put in a filly when she has a chance and this one has a chance

(not sure about the order, though)

And hey! Ted from LA: nice kiss kiss to the ladies with "Run for the Roses". I love that song. Too bad I haven't been posting for a while (busy, busy, busy)! (Love you anyways -- also liked your Bonnie and Clyde comment some time ago -- and I'm not just sucking up)

Question for the Preakness: Blind Luck AND Devil May Care? Too bad Biofuel won't have gotten any more runs in before it comes up -- an all-filly in the money would have been cool.

Also, too bad the Queen is coming to the Queens' Plate...because Hollinger must be pointing for that race.

Oh well.

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Pboo — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 18:42:09 GMT

Enough talk.....no sure fire winner so here is the tri box...

Ice Box- Awesome Act-Sidney's Candy

You heard it here!!!

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Pedigree Shelly — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 18:33:32 GMT

tcc, Thank You Sooooo much for the PP's !! Made my day alot easier :)

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Zookeeper — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 17:53:01 GMT

MonicaV,

Thank you for your kind comment. :) Like you I'm hoping for good weather on Saturday. What a bummer if it rains for the people on the ground, thousands of them without overhead cover. It also (and more importantly) affects the race tremendously. The only horse running last year, was MTB on the rail. The other horses all seemed to be stuck in the mud compared to him. Let's hope the rain stays away until Sunday.

The two morning line favorites being at the extreme ends of the field surely doesn't bode well for either of them. Maybe they will not be favored, by the bettors, when the gates open. Any thoughts on the final odds?

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Zarkava — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 17:32:44 GMT

Mission Impazible

Awesome Act

Devil May Care

Hate to toss Sidney´s Candy, but post 20... Ouch...

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Pam S. — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 17:25:29 GMT

Like I wrote on the other blog, Alexis Barba has had a whirlwind Derby season. First she wins two races in one day and thinks she has two Derby horses. Then both finish out of the money in their final preps, so she's apparently down to none. Then Alphie's Bet wins a big Cal-bred race, so she might have a nice horse for the Belmont. Finally, there are enough 11th-hour defections that Make Music for Me Gets in the big dance after all (and with a good post)! Good luck to Ms. Barba and her 50-1 shot.

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Tim G — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 17:14:14 GMT

Billy I'm surprised (not) you weren't texting everyone who wasn't there, from the draw.LOL

John is a reserved, kind of shy person, he's probably almost used to total strangers asking him about the mare and a smile from him is the most you'll get.

As far as the rumors on Endorsement? Do you REALLY believe that Shannon would have taken him out,galloped him then BREEZED him with HER on his back if he had a condylar fracture and she KNEW it?

Ted, you and Dray..... but at least you're funny.

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Slew — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 17:08:11 GMT

Was LAL born with a cloud over his head? Rail??? The colt just doesn't get any breaks.

Endorsement had a great work, and the fracture occurred during the work out...he's headed for surgery. Can the sealed track at CD be responsible for these last minute defections? One has to wonder.

Colmel...Make Music For Me has a female trainer.(Alexis Barba),and he's in the Derby.

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

TJLuvsTizs — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 17:07:46 GMT

I said it before, and I am sticking to it: I am THROWING OUT Post Positions 1,2,3,19 and 20! I will likely also be tossing 17 Dublin and 18 Backtalk.

I think this race sets up perfectly for Super Saver, who has no speed on his inside and room to run and get on the rail as the tidal wave comes down on the inside posts.

Devil May Care, MI, and Awesome Act shouldn't be too affected by their draws, I will likely play them as well as my homer favorite who I will take at 30-1 (although I expect him to be played down to the lower 20's) American Lion in the 7 spot!

Early 5 horse box:

American Lion

Awesome Act

Devil May Care

Mission Impazible

Super Saver

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

thomas — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 17:07:20 GMT

the two favorites are the book ends in the derby American lion and stately victor got good spots too. Dublin got 17 no horse has won from their.

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

MonicaV — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 16:58:16 GMT

Matthew W,

I'm with you. I love Sidney's Candy. I hope he wins. I just love his way of going.

Zookeeper,

I would never have guessed that English is your second language. Your posts are always well written.

I really hope that this rain expected on Saturday doesn't show up. I hate it when it rains on Derby day, makes it so dreary and it changes the race. The only horses I was sure wouldn't have a problem with a wet track were Sunday Silence and Smarty Jones. This year, I have no idea but it is so much more beautiful when it's sunny and bright and nicer to watch on TV.

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Canz — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 16:52:26 GMT

What are the odds that the 1st and second choice get bookend post positions.

re: Oh That Crazy Derby

Ted from LA — Wed, 28 Apr 2010 16:50:28 GMT

English is my first language and I still struggle with some of it. Now what do I do for a Derby horse? Endorsement will win the Travers. It's a lock. Sidney's Candy??? Not a name for the mint julep glass.