Four Derby Longshots to Consider

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

smartyjones15 — Wed, 05 May 2010 02:49:19 GMT

hope you through out mission for super saver for the superfecta 200,000 wow

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Phileboy — Tue, 04 May 2010 17:05:29 GMT

Hey, there, Jason! So, where's the love? Yes, it is terribly unbecoming for anyone to fish for a compliment in a public forum, but all the same, gee whiz -- I posted just ONCE on your blog -- on Wednesday night, some 70 hours before the big race.

And in my sole comment, I provided your readers with a cogent and lucid analysis of not only WHY Super Saver would win, but precisely HOW Super Saver would win, My assessment was a mirror image of how the race played out. (I can be faulted, I suppose, for imagining that he would be at least 14-1; thankfully I had a modest bet on him in the future book, too!)

Additionally, the very first horse I mentioned AFTER Super Saver was Ice Box, as a check of my comment will show. Although I missed the tri, I still submit that if this wasn't, in total, the best single example of prognosticating prowess since the death of Nostradamus, it ought to have ranked as the best damn example of sports handicapping since Babe Ruth called his home run off pitcher Charlie Root in game three of the 1932 World Series at Wrigley Field!

Look, it's beyond dispute that horseplayers are so much more regularly wrong than right and for that very reason, that's why I am demanding my props! On a site where so many people posted cockamamie opinions (with some offering MULTIPLE opinions on the very same subject, ALL of which were wrong; you know the chief offender, I'm sure!) a simple, "Well, done, Phiieboy!" ought to be in order, don't you think? Forgive me for my bombast, Jason -- and thanks. -- Phileboy

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Citation — Sun, 02 May 2010 18:56:08 GMT

It has been a great weekend for Storm Cat, with his granddaughter winning the 1000 Guineas and his grandson and great grandson Make Music for Me and Ice Box closing faster than anyone in the Derby.

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Paula Higgins — Sat, 01 May 2010 23:14:50 GMT

Congratulations to everyone who picked Super Saver. Congratulations to Calvin Borel and Todd Pletcher. I DID pick Ice Box in my group so I feel good about that. Frankly, I think with a better trip Ice Box might have beat Super Saver. I am not as confident as Calvin that we have a Triple Crown winner in Super Saver. I think Ice Box will have something to say about that if he runs. Looking At Lucky didn't stand a chance. Sidney's Candy, faded out. Paddy O'Prado ran a good race and so did Noble's Promise.

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

EL Kabong — Sat, 01 May 2010 19:36:56 GMT

Good luck all. I am going with Super Saver to get it done. Like Sidney, Lucky to cross line after him. Ice, Noble, Paddy, Mission to fill out underneath.

Jason,

great lead up to the race, and good luck. I know you have super saver somewhere on your ticket, there is no way you could leave him off in this soup.... "Wouldn't be prudent, stay the course, a thousands bills across the board"

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Perplexed — Sat, 01 May 2010 12:54:37 GMT

"Perplexed- I bet the consignor wishes you were at the auction, when Noble's Promise was sold. The price was obviously indicative of underlying stamina limitations. "

LOL...yeah, underlying stamina issues kills a lot of sales in this day and age

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Slew — Sat, 01 May 2010 12:13:16 GMT

Colmel...one word for Victor-REGAL.

What a stride on that colt....and he's a mudder-top and bottom.

RA ran a difficult campaign last year, and I think the Woodward may have been her undoing. 100,000 fans...and dead silence. How sad. I sincerely hope she comes back to form. Now there is no need to wonder why Zen's races are so carefully chosen. At 6, she remains the "it" girl. It just doesn't make sense to run a horse into the ground for a subjective trophy. The weather at CD is massively awful this morning. Hope it's over by this afternoon.

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

brettzky99 — Sat, 01 May 2010 03:05:07 GMT

Perplexed- I bet the consignor wishes you were at the auction, when Noble's Promise was sold. The price was obviously indicative of underlying stamina limitations. He has outrun those limits up to 1 1/16. He may @ 1 1/4 also, but to not question it from a handicapping standpoint is unrealistic; just ask Robby Albarado's agent.

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

jayjay — Sat, 01 May 2010 00:40:20 GMT

Just wanted to make it clear that I don't have anything against RA, my comments about her is regarding Dragnay's bashing and comparison to Zenyatta. I think RA accomplished A LOT last year, she was the deserving HOTY last year. I made a comment in Jason's other blogs that RA reminds me of Stardom Bound, a filly that destroyed her competitions one year and was never the same horse the following year.

I would love to see RA get back to her form like last year and maybe she will later on this year and hopefully will face Z when she's at her best. I'm a Zenyatta fan and am looking forward to seeing Z race regardless of who she is running against. I just love watching her stride, the big wide turn moves or the big inside moves, she's a special horse, arguably one of the best ever (at least to me)

On a frustrating note, I had Evening Jewel on my special P3 (Oaks / Woodford / Derby) and Blind Luck nipped her by the closest of margin. I still hit the trifecta and a $10 exacta so not all that bad but man oh man, that P3 would've been SWEEEET starting off with a 13-1 shot.

Again, here's what I'm stickin with :

IceBox / LAL

Longshots :

Dean's Kitten and Make Music For Me, I might add Dublin to my previous bets just in case :)

Good luck to all tomorrow and PEACE!! (still waiting for the "official" excuse for RA's performance today from Dragnay, I bet he'll jump off the ship today and claim he never liked RA come next week's blogs LOL)

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

PomDeTerre — Sat, 01 May 2010 00:25:51 GMT

just an fyi - have heard today from reliable source dubin is not 100% sound. good luck all.

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

LAZMANNICK — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 22:40:47 GMT

Mike Relva

Good luck this weekend. I really don't know what Draynay will give as an excuse because he has dozens of them . I guess he closes his eyes and throws a dart at his excuse board then makes his usual brilliant statement. LOL

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Pedigree Shelly — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 22:13:20 GMT

I Know alot of people on this blog really like Noble's Promise , Jackson Bend and Mission Impazible ( dont like the name :( These are talented horses but, are not my win picks but, I would not leave them out of trifectas and exactas !!!

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Mike Relva — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 21:28:31 GMT

LAZMANNICK

Hey,good luck this weekend. What do you think Draynay's "spin" will be regarding RA?

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

LAZMANNICK — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:59:28 GMT

I guess the Alysheba results once and for all explain the fallacies of last year. Enough said. on to THE Derby......WHO DO YOU LIKE THIS YEAR DRAY? wE'LL GIVE YOU ONE MORE TRY!!!!!!!!!

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

jayjay — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:49:41 GMT

DRAYNAY, before you argue about things, you need to actually study all the facts about what you're arguing about otherwise you'll look foolish.

You keep saying LAL has no chance of winning from the 1 hole, do you really think NP being in the 3 hole is a lot better and makes a big difference???? Do you think that horses 4 through 20 will all break to their right and give room to NP and IceBox will trap LAL inside ? If so, WAKE UP from your dream and deal with reality. Sometimes I don't even know why I respond to you, it's like talking to a child. Seriously, are you new to horse racing ? LOL

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Zarkava — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:49:31 GMT

Sodapopkid

Dray should be quiet. I´m leaning towards blaming his voodoo for this one...

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Mike Relva — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:41:01 GMT

DRAYNAY

I allowed RA's first race back, that she was coming off a long layoff,but not today. No excuses for what happened! She's not the same,paying for her eight races last year. You have the DISRESPECT to rail on Zenyatta/connections and you see today it went sideways on your silly statements. BTW that was priceless,few weeks ago on Haskins' blog to pretend you respect Zenyatta. Question? Do you think he bought it? I doubt it! You need to face reality! I've never disrespected RA or ANY horse,but you are the "king of kings" with all your slams for Zenyatta and MTB,now your paying the price like I envisioned you would!

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

jayjay — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:37:08 GMT

DRAYNAY : I'm laughing so hard it took me a minute to start typing...what trouble are you talking about NP had in the Rebel ??? That he was forced to move early ??? that's not what most people would call trouble, that's tactic, strategy that the jockey decided, NOT the horse. You make me feel like I'm talking to a 10 yr old, trying to make up things just to be able to argue. LOL

Oh yeah, waiting for your comments about RA. I'm sure you remember my blog about her not winning ANY race this year and that she'll be retired soon.

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Householder — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:36:36 GMT

The winner ran the La Canada...synthetics...isn't this California? Where did the last horse to beat RA come from? What? where? does Zenyatta run? Dray has me all confused. Pollyetta, this is better right?

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Householder — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:29:35 GMT

Lucky may have some trouble catching Line of David (who I love on the ticket) but he is too gifted to leave off the super (hoping to "channel" Shoemaker tommorrow from my living room). Throw in a horse like NP who is kicking the barn door down and either a speed or closer to round things out. Conveyance? Paddy O Furniture if it's wet?

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

LAZMANNICK — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:29:23 GMT

Of course it's all Calvin's fault.

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Householder — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:22:59 GMT

Annie M. Agree with your love for Blind Luck. She trounced Amen at Hollywood and pedigree screams additional 1/16th. She going to love 1 1/8 on dirt and wants nothing to do with that crazy mile synthetic stuff. Pletcher's horse that "sees things" would have had her work cut out for her today.

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Householder — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:14:45 GMT

Didn't see to many predictions regarding RA today. Tough loss. Now we can get back to raggin on Zenyatta and why she's not running here or there or against the boys.

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Urbs — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:14:29 GMT

The rains are coming and you know if you are down inside you are in big big trouble when the race starts. The rail is going to have a foot and a half of mud , so starting from the 10 post out will be golden. GO MISSION GO

re: Four Derby Longshots to Consider

Householder — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 19:01:11 GMT

I You Tubed the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from the 1 post. Ferdinand broke poorly, got shuffled back, was dead last going into the first turn. The shoe worked his way back by the half and then shot up the rail! I've sent the film to Gomez.