Derby 136 Picks

re: Derby 136 Picks

gw_bushwacker — Tue, 04 May 2010 12:34:28 GMT

From Ranagulzion 02 May 2010 5:07 PM

Rachel Alexandra got everybody thinking that she was unbeatable

Having lost two in a row, she should now go hunting for "Queen" Zenyatta or "set ambush" for the next time that one ventures outside of California. JJ and Steve Assmusen should declare that they are ready to face "Big Z" and see if the Mosses will answer the call. The Derby is over so "Let's get it on mon."

Time for the build up to the RACHEL ALEXABDRA vs ZENYATTA showdown.

First of all not everyone believed RA was unbeatable. There was more than one blogger here including myself that stated well before the year began that RA would not go unbeaten this year and would lose to a horse not named Zenyatta during 2010.

Now since that has happened not once but twice RA and her connections have no choice but to quit ducking Zenyatta. RA's reputation has been for lack of a better word "tarnished" and the only way they can get it back is to finally man up and race Zenyatta and beat her. RA isn't finding the easy pickings she found last year and it has exposed her record as being built on soft competition rather than her being a super horse. No horse who loses 5 times out of 16 races and those losses come in less than G1 races is a super horse. That's not saying she's not a very good one but is saying she's not one of the best ever.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Rechelle — Tue, 04 May 2010 04:47:49 GMT

Citation, I've never been to Remington, but LSP is a great track. I wish I could've gone to the Breeders Cup in 2004 but tickets were sold out well before the event, which sucked. I can't believe I've never been to Remington, since I used to live in Oklahoma about an hour or so southeast of OKC.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Rechelle — Tue, 04 May 2010 04:46:21 GMT

Karen in Texas: I thought Choctaw bought everything, land & all. I didn't realize that it was someone different. I hope that Texas can get over their ..... issues to put it nicely ..... about slots at racetracks in Texas. All they have to do is look at how well it's working at other tracks in the country. It'd be good for the state as well as the tracks. Honestly Perry can't be that ..... dense ..... can he?? I'm rooting for the Democrat to be the next governor, and I'm normally Republican. But after Bush, I'm leaning more to Democrat. Perry needs to get out of office.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Rechelle — Tue, 04 May 2010 04:43:34 GMT

Slew, I apologize, I misread what you want. I did read today that the owners of LAL were upset with Garret Gomez for not pulling Lucky up when it was obvious he wasn't going to win. I can kinda see their point, but can also see Gomez's point.

So far, Ice Box & LAL's connections have not said they will go on to the Preakness. Actually the only Derby started is Dublin, other than Super Savor, obviously. Honestly, I don't see LAL running it. I'd love to see Stately Victor run it. Heck, I'd love to see Lentenor run it, simply for the emotional value of running in the race that Barbaro broke down in. It'd be a good tribute to Barbaro.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Citation — Mon, 03 May 2010 19:57:06 GMT

Rechelle, I want them to bring the Breeder's Cup to Remington, since I live in Oklahoma, but I'm sure that will never happen. They might bring it to Lone Star though, and that is the next best thing.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Karen in Texas — Mon, 03 May 2010 17:56:49 GMT

Rechelle---I was excited about the appearance of the Chickasaw Nation in the LSP picture as well. If you read the article I linked at 11:21 P.M. last night, it gives fairly comprehensive background and detail on their purchase of the lease. Global Gaming Solutions, the casino subsidiary of the Chickasaw Nation has purchased the LEASE for management of LSP, but the City of Grand Prairie remains the owner of the land. The track is still considered a "distressed asset" for Global Gaming, but is potentially their greatest acquisition ever, if only the state will legalize expanded gambling. There is hope that it will be put to a vote with a statewide referendum. Even for that to happen there must be approval of (I think) 2/3 of the legislature for it to appear on the ballot. The economy makes all of these things more likely than they have ever been. The article quotes Corey Johnson as being hopeful that the state legislature will act favorably in 2011.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Karen2 — Mon, 03 May 2010 17:39:49 GMT

In my opinion yes..you can absolutely blame the surface. Training on it all week does not simulate running on it with 20 horses. Pletcher himself stated there was just no way to prepare your horse for this. You do the best you can but it is mediocre at best. Getting water and mud up your nose and in your eyes and colliding with other horses can change everything. Does Nobles Promise lack the pedigree to go the distance??? This race did not answer that question. I read where someone said the same thing about Sidney's Candy...I completely disagree. More questions will be answered in the upcoming weeks....should be interesting.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Tim G — Mon, 03 May 2010 16:48:00 GMT

Rechelle, it definitely revived Sunland Park to get slots, the other tracks not so much.

The Pojaque tribe in NM bought the old Santa Fe Downs (where Real Quiet ran a real clunker as a 2 year old). They bought it to keep slots away and a monopoly for the tribes around Santa Fe.

I'm not sure what it is about Tx and racing. They really supported the bush tracks there, but just didn't seem to buy in to the parimutuel wagering, yet seemed to gamble tons in the old days at Ruidoso especially. I'm thinking they like Ruidoso for the Mt town and atmosphere?

Remington and Lone Star are both nice tracks. I just think everyone would benefit from a Stan Fulton running their track like he has Sunland running.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Rechelle — Mon, 03 May 2010 15:40:34 GMT

Tim G wrote " I don't know about you but I've always been curious why, when Texans flocked to Ruidoso and Sunland Park, the tracks in Texas just struggled.....Same with Oklahoma. I've just wondered about that for years."

Not all tracks in Texas are struggling. Especially now that Lone Star Park has been purchased by the Choctaw has purchased it and the track in Oklahoma City. The Choctaw ownership for LSP will have a lot of benefits from it, and may finally help legalize slots in Texas. Since LSP is now Indian owned, I don't know how the state can refuse, since it is now indian land. If Choctaw purchases Ruidoso and Sunland Park, those tracks will also improve. Choctaw takes their land very seriously, as well as all their business ventures. For proof of that, just look up what their casino in Oklahoma is like now. So you don't have to search, here's the link. http://www.choctawcasinos.com/

10 years ago it was a small casino. It is now a full fledge resort earning millions of dollars yearly. The Chikasaw Nation also has a casino that 10 years ago was just a small time casino with a motel. Now it is a full fledge resort as well. Anything that these 2 indian nations touch turns to gold. That's why I was so thrilled when I heard that Choctaw Nation had bought Lone Star Park and Remington Park. It will do nothing but make those two tracks better and hopefully get the Breeders Cup back to Lone Star Park. You can bet they are going to do their damndest to get it here again.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Tim G — Mon, 03 May 2010 15:01:40 GMT

CV a sealed track is a dirt track that has been packed down also referred to as 'floated' and not harrowed after it's floated. They seal a dry track to run the water off the track,if it's supposed to rain in order to reduce water/moisture absorption into the track.

They seal a wet track to keep the surface even.

Butch is one of the best, CD has a great runoff system. They watered, harrowed and then sealed the track on Friday. Since all the horses came in a bit earlier this year and had a chance to get over the track it wasn't opened Saturday morning. A good thing I think.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Slew — Mon, 03 May 2010 11:51:25 GMT

Rechelle...I don't know at which point you thought I knocked any horse???? Stately Victor was my choice but he had a horrendous race, and he kept trying. He did not ease up until the 8th pole....but he was banged up so much during the race, I'm hoping he comes out well and goes on...he kept pushing forward through the mob...that takes heart. I thought Calvin and Super Saver had a dream run (thanks to Bo-rail). Ice Box had a horrendous start but went from 19th to 2nd...I thought he was sensational, and had the most speed and stamina. I admired LAL to be able to finish 6th after almost getting pushed over the rail. I did however knock one jockey because of his rodeo ride and comments after the race...the jockey who pushed Stately Victor into LAL...so maybe you should just put away the soapbox you never should have climbed on in the first place.

re: Derby 136 Picks

CV — Mon, 03 May 2010 05:42:15 GMT

Tim G.,

I remember reading John Shirreffs said he would scratch if they sealed the track. I'm not expert in that area but I've read comments from others who say a sealed track is hard and unyielding.

Perhaps you could explain the difference between sealing a wet track and "floating" it. I'm not sure what the latter term means.

re: Derby 136 Picks

GunBow — Mon, 03 May 2010 04:51:16 GMT

Rocker:

I didn't imply that Ice Box did not have trouble; and by writing that I didn't see Ice Box have alot of trouble I didn't mean that he hadn't. I literally meant that on the video I have reviewed I can't see Ice Box most of the trip. In the beginning, he's so far behind he's off the screen. Then, as he's coming around the 2nd turn, there is a wall of hores infront of him blocking the view. Then, at the eighth pole, he drops out of view once again before swinging out in the middle of the track for his final push. I haven't been able to see what's going on with Ice Box for most of the race.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Gary Lynn — Mon, 03 May 2010 04:16:01 GMT

That's some neck of the woods, tvnewsbadge, and why you have a computer. There be the coverage, son.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Rechelle — Mon, 03 May 2010 04:14:16 GMT

First off Slew, I'm not even sure that Ice Box or Lookin at Lucky will even run in the Preakness, especially Lucky. Keep in mind that Super Saver was the co-favorite with Lucky. Don't knock him, he is a good quality horse who can easily run on the slop. I'm not convince that Lucky can run in slop. As for Stately Victor, who was my pick as well, I think he was pulled up more than it was him giving up. He couldn't get out of traffic, so they could have pulled up a bit to keep him from being hurt. It's not worth a horse getting injured in a race that by the stretch you know he's not going to get up and go, like he showed in the Bluegrass Stakes. I really hope Victor shows up at the Preakness.

Now for CV: I like Ice Box (heck he beat Lentenor and it's nice to see that he really is a classy horse) but I am not convinced that he can get up & get by Super Saver. If it was a closer race than maybe, but it wasn't that close. Super Saver had 2 and a half lengths ahead of Ice Box. Ice Box trained well over the slop, but I don't think he could've come in first no matter the surface.

Y'all can't blame the surface, the horses all trained over it and trained well. They also had mud nails (kinda like cleats on football players, can't think of the proper word) so that they could get a good grip on the surface. It was a fair race. Super Saver just exploded where as the other horses didn't. Y'all also need to remember that Super Saver was co-favorite with Lucky. People expected Super Saver to win.

Just my opinion of course. He was my second pick, I wish I would've put my bet on him instead of Stately Victor. I picked Stately Victor because he's bred to do well on mud. It might've been a different race, had he not gotten stuck in traffic. I am looking forward to the Preakness and really hope Calvin & Super Saver win it. If they can pull off getting the Triple Crown, it will do a LOT of good for the sport and attract new fans. I'll get off my soapbox now. :-)

re: Derby 136 Picks

Gary Lynn — Mon, 03 May 2010 03:23:34 GMT

Yes, tvnewsbadge, because Zenyatta was denied HOY in '09 and her fans want it very badly for her this year. And who in the states is better than her?

re: Derby 136 Picks

Karen in Texas — Mon, 03 May 2010 03:21:32 GMT

Tim G.---That's a big question--I don't truly know, but I've heard knowledgeable people say it has to do with the history of gambling (or the lack thereof) in Texas. I'm linking a recent article concerning the current problems facing Lone Star Park that offers a glimpse of the mentality affecting the tracks here.

www.dmagazine.com/.../Is_Grand_Prairie_the_Next_Sin_City.aspx

re: Derby 136 Picks

Tim G — Mon, 03 May 2010 01:56:00 GMT

Paula, because he didn't have to...

NO race really worth running in, a track that they had plans for evacuating the infield in case of flooding? Not sure if you saw the way it was underwater this summer but with tornado warnings, flood warnings it was potentially hazardous and I don't see any reason to run her in that situation. I know a lot of trainers and owners were disappointed as well, but the Derby is a different deal.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Tim G — Mon, 03 May 2010 01:51:54 GMT

Draynay, I really don't think Todd was dreaming of the Derby when he was 12, his Dad JJ was a trainer in NM venturing to AkSarBen as well, maybe Centennial Park back in its heydey, if I remember correctly and doubt many of us back then had Derby dreams.

Todd has only been in the race for the last 10 years, he just had a lot of owners the last several with a lot of horses that they wanted to see in the Derby.

He made it to the Derby along with Wayne when he worked for him, he was one who had hands-on with Thunder Gulch.

I really cannot see how you can congratulate him (even though he has no idea of who you are)after all the nasty things you said about him. Maybe it's something best left unsaid? A little lesson in etiquette and class....

Also, you should seek treatment for that obsession you have with certain horses. Noble had a good post position, had every opportunity, a relatively trouble free trip and still....

Karen, I don't know about you but I've always been curious why, when Texans flocked to Ruidoso and Sunland Park, the tracks in Texas just struggled.....Same with Oklahoma. I've just wondered about that for years.

re: Derby 136 Picks

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 03 May 2010 01:33:04 GMT

Draynay

Your excuses continue to amuse me. NP is a good horse, but he's not a classic horse and never will be. That's not a slam, it's a fact. With regards to the others behind him, did it ever occur to you that most of them (the ones that didn't have trouble)will not be heard from in any meaningful way again......regarding Pletcher, your feel good happy ending for him is about as plastic and tranparent as it gets, considering the contifnuous slams and beatdowns you've been giving him all year. Hopefully, you're being genuine, but notice that I said hopefully. LOL

re: Derby 136 Picks

PMAC14 — Mon, 03 May 2010 01:00:19 GMT

All I can say is La Troienne! The mistake i made was not giving ice box more of a look.(I had LAL SS POP and SV in a $6 tri box and $10 exacta box) And that dang Calvin Borel has MASTERED the derby! Also Rachel ran very well and the time was great, but Big Z is from another world!

re: Derby 136 Picks

draynay — Mon, 03 May 2010 00:49:30 GMT

Lazzmanick you're funny. Maybe you didn't notice but Noble beat about 15 horses with "better" so called longer breeding. I think he just got a little too close to a very hot pace and moved a little too soon. I hope he gets a chance to prove it in the Preakness. Super Saver was the best on Saturday but on a dry track the race will be much different.

re: Derby 136 Picks

longwaytomay — Mon, 03 May 2010 00:42:34 GMT

Dr. Drunkenbum,

I apologize for being terse with you last night. I was still steaming and had a few adult beverages but there was no exuse to post the way I did. I did not win a dime yesterday because I could not make a bet. I started trying to access my Xpress Bet account around 4:30 and never could get to it online or on the phone due to the site crashing. Cost me a ton and I'm still not a happy camper. Xpressbet is sorry for my inconvienence. LOL

What I meant by my earlier post was that I am tired of reading the same b.s. anytime someone mentions either Zenyatta or Rachels name. It is the same crap that has been posted 100 times over and over and over. I don't think I'm the only one who feels this way but I could be wrong. I hope everybody had a better day than I had yesterday.

re: Derby 136 Picks

Greg J. — Mon, 03 May 2010 00:32:07 GMT

Brian,

I just went back up and looked at everyone picks, And what do you know? I didn't see your picks anywhere on this thread? You have the gall to put down my picks when you don't even post yours? Quite comical, At least I actually posted mine, Right or wrong, They are there, Unlike yours, Too funny...

re: Derby 136 Picks

Greg J. — Mon, 03 May 2010 00:24:48 GMT

Brian,

Very juvenile of you, I don't even know who you are since your name doesn't mean a thing to me to me, My top four didn't do well as well as 95% of most others here, Unless of course you hit the Super? Go back to your little hole and I will continue to respect other opinions here that actually are educated and well informed, Unlike your small comments, Thanks...