Belmont May Give Us a New Star

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

odelay — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 02:27:05 GMT

COLDFACTS.......where are you???

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

billfromwa — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 18:19:26 GMT

Listed below are the stamina numbers for the potential Belmont entrants. The numbers are derived from an evaluation (application) of the female influences within the pedigree (Modern Conduit Mares). The lower the number the more perceived stamina. Also listed are the tail female (Conduit Mare) aptitudinal designations and significant winners tracing to the conduit mare.

• Interactif (1.21) Dona Cecilia (B/C) CCA Oaks winner, My Flag. Two Broodmares of the Year.

• Spangled Star (0.83) Hamburg Belle (I) Florida Oaks winner, Anklet, G1 SW Bullsbay, multiple graded stakes winner, Grecian Flight.

• First Dude (1.10) Rambling Rose (B/P) A.P. Indy, Lemon Drop Kid, Summer Squall. Two Broodmares of the Year.

• Drosselmeyer (1.02) Consuelo (B) G2 stakes winner Hawkins Special, Multiple graded stakes winner Golden Ballet.

• Ice Box (0.82) Doxa (B/P) via LaTroienne's half sister Adargatis. Three Kentucky Derby winners, three Preakness winners, two CCA Oaks winners, one St Leger stakes winner, and two Broodmares of the year trace to Doxa via LaTroienne. Kentucky Derby winner Spend A Buck, 'Arc winner Ardan, and Jockey Club stakes winner Pardal trace to Doxa via Adargatis.

• Make Music For Me (0.92) Slippers (C/S) Graded stakes winners, Champagne Charlie, Lady Dulcinea, Heavenly Cause, Queen of Wilshire, El Basco, and Bounding Basque (who equaled a track record for 10 furlongs).

• Stately Victor (1.27) Court Dress (B/C) Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Charismatic, Belmont Stakes winner Go and Go, 2000 Guineas winners Refuse To Bend and Rock of Gibraltar, and G1 winner, Champion two-year-old, and leading sire, Deputy Minister.

• Game On Dude (0.86) Paraffine Lass (S) Preakness winner Master Derby, Oaks Stakes and St Leger winner Sun Princess, and St Leger Stakes winner Millenary.

• Dave in Dixie (0.77) Adana (I/S) CCA Oaks winner, Horse of the Year, and Hall-of-Fame winner, Twilight Tear, G1 stakes placed winner and sire Stolen Gold, and graded stakes winner Nightmare Affair.

• Stay Put (0.86) Last Line (I/C) Graded stakes winners Top Corsage, Single Dawn (won 12 stakes), Doremisollatido, Croeso, Ide, Super Max, and Slewpy.

• Fly Down (1.04) Tangle (B/S) G1 winner Giant's Causeway and his brother Freud, G1 winner Leroidesanimaux, Graded stakes winners It's Your Pleasure, Leroy S, Banks Hill, Champs Elysees, So Factual, and Hawksley Hill. Irish Champion two-year-old filly Sooker, American Champion two-year-old filly Dearly Precious, and SW Promising Lead (3 wins at 10 furlongs).

• Uptowncharlybrown (0.80) Frizette (B/P) Too many to list individually. Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew leads the list. All told there are three 'Arc winners, two Kentucky Derby winners, two 2000 Guineas winners, an Epsom Derby winner, a Preakness winner, a Breeders Cup Classic winner a CCA Oaks winner, a St Leger winner, and two broodmares of the Year.

My superfecta box will be: Dave in Dixie, Uptowncharlybrown, Ice Box, and Spangled Star.

Looking for a price, I will probably bet Spangled Star to win.

Bill

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

billfromwa — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 15:36:56 GMT

Belmont Superfecta Box: This is based on my evaluation of the best pedigree scores for the distance (the lower the number the more percieved stamina).

Dave In Dixie (0.77)

Uptowncharlybrown ((0.80)

Ice Box (0.82)

Spangled Star (0.83)

Alternates: Game On Dude (0.86) and Stay Put (0.86)

Based on my projection of the pace scenario, I think an improving Spangled Star comes out on top.

Bill

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

PomDeTerre — Mon, 31 May 2010 19:49:11 GMT

Dubai Dave- Alot of us here are not guys.

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

Jim Bo — Mon, 31 May 2010 15:26:40 GMT

If the Belmont is run on a fast track, I don't think anyone is going to beat Ice Box, Fly Down, or First Dude. Make Music For Me appears to be a synthetic, slop, or turf horse, so if the track comes up sloppy that's where some of my money is going. Forget all the rest of the pretenders.

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

PomDeTerre — Mon, 31 May 2010 13:26:09 GMT

On the Met: Lots of early speed and I'm gonna go out on a limb with it. If Borel let's Warrior's Reward run his race, I think he's in there to pick up some pieces. I gotta take him over QR, and throw Musket Man in there for the tri.

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

DUBAI DAVE — Sun, 30 May 2010 13:18:52 GMT

gentlemen: after calling the

trifecta in the kentucky derby and the superfecta in the preaknessm

you might want to heed the

desert wizard:

expect a slow pace at the belmont,

a true gentleman's jog: last man

standing:

surprise!!!! SPANGLED STAR

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

Pedigree Shelly — Sat, 29 May 2010 18:28:34 GMT

Slew, Sorry about the misunderstanding . There are way too many injuries,no matter what surface horses are racing on . Horses these days are becoming way too fragile !

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

Slew — Sat, 29 May 2010 12:11:42 GMT

Shelly-no problem, but I think my point was that plenty of other contenders bowed out of the Derby in the weeks before due to injury, and they weren't in the Wood. I thought the Wood field this year was very small, and I was disappointed in it.

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

jayjay — Sat, 29 May 2010 01:57:15 GMT

Question to the owners/breeders out there : Are we really having a shortage of horses across the country due to well, there's lesser horses in general actively racing or are they going to specific tracks (like Monmouth) because of the large purses. I just read a short article that Churchill Downs is having a hard time filling their race cards even after eliminating their wednesday racing. I don't know where to begin to research the answer...maybe someone can edumacate me.

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

Pedigree Shelly — Sat, 29 May 2010 01:34:45 GMT

Slew , calm down ! I watch the Wood every year ! It is an important race for the classics! The pass two years it seems to have been the " kiss of death " to I want Revenge and Eskendereya ! It should not be avoided ! Sorry to make it seem that way !

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

Pedigree Shelly — Sat, 29 May 2010 01:19:48 GMT

Jayjay ,Thank you for clafifying my response about the Wood :) Conquistador Cielo was the most impressive winner of the Met Mile / Belmont I think ! Thanks to all who have responded ! August Song , Thank You for bringing up previous Met Mile Corinthian ! I remember betting on him in The Fountain of Youth , he was disqualified for his antics in the stretch ! I think JJ Castellano was riding him then ?

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

jayjay — Sat, 29 May 2010 00:13:20 GMT

Well yeah, if no one goes to the Wood yes, but whoever thinks that NO ONE will go to the Wood is ridiculous themselves. Did you even read her comment? She said the trainers of the TOP CONTENDERS should consider not taking the Wood route...I don't think it's a Wood curse either but you took it way out of context, I just think it's a coinkidink. You're a little tooooo sensitive about this issue, let me assure, NO ONE will touch the Wood Memorial, okay ? You can relax now :)

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

Slew — Fri, 28 May 2010 23:51:54 GMT

JayJay...if you avoid the Wood, no contenders=no race=elimination. How many other horses who weren't in the Wood turned up lame before the Derby in the past 2 years....quite a few. Running in the Wood had nothing to do with it. It remains a ridiculous supposition.

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

jayjay — Fri, 28 May 2010 22:57:32 GMT

That's an interesting addition to the Mile Ida. You're still betting the farm ?? Good luck to ya :)

I'm goin for a shot, I want to see QR handle the deep surface at Belmont first, it's a lot different than GP. I think there's going to be a giant killing happening on Monday. If I'm right, I'm gonna be rich and I'll buy a farm :) If not, I'll move in with your mother too.

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

Ida Lee — Fri, 28 May 2010 22:05:57 GMT

Have you all seen Quality Road lately? He looks GORGEOUS, the epitome of good health (physical and mental) and muscular like a Greek god. I say the Met is his for the taking. On the other hand, ever since at any given time I picked just about every horse in the 09 Derby except Mine That Bird to win, I've been careful about ignoring long-shots in these big races. Musket Man is running in the Met and there is something about this horse that says "ignore me at your own risk". Still, I'm betting the farm on QR (knowing I can always move in with my mother).

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

tcc — Fri, 28 May 2010 21:53:32 GMT

Don't count out Drosselmeyer just yet. He IS being ridden by Kent Desermeoux and HE is well known for upsetting the Belmont Stakes with a longshot. Just a thought.

Marilyn 28 May 2010 12:55 PM

Horse Trainer Jockey Owner Breeder

Drosselmeyer William Mott Mike Smith WinStar Farm Aaron U. Jones & Marie D. Jones (KY)

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

jayjay — Fri, 28 May 2010 21:04:38 GMT

I agree Matthew, QR will at least be 2-5 in that race. I would never play that kind of odds. It doesn't pay. I will however put a lot of money on IceBox, he won't be that heavy as the favorite, in fact, FD might take in more money than IceBox because Draynay is touring the states touting this horse as his superstar, which is fine by me. I think he'll bounce, Preakness was a long race and pretty hot fractions, if his size can carry him moving forward then I'll lose a lot of money but I'm taking IceBox and MMFM with Stay Put, SV, Fly Down. I'll probably put First Dude in the 4th hole to complete my super. The other Dude and Charly will take FD on very early, they'll probably go 24 and 48, IceBox can easily handle those fractions. He'll be a lot closer this time and have multiple targets when he cruises home on the stretch run. He'll probably run the same way Summer Bird won the Belmont, close to the pace and blow by them on the stretch.

I'll check out the live blog next Friday and maybe some of Jason's guest hosts will have insight on how FD and the other horses are doing and how they look. I'll also check out the parade and see if he looks unbeatable or unbettable :)

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

thomas — Fri, 28 May 2010 20:15:01 GMT

i think stay put will make some noise in the belmont

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

Jim Bo — Fri, 28 May 2010 19:57:51 GMT

Like many of you I like Ice Box, Fly Down and First Dude...however, if Make Music for Me is not just an off-track or synthetic surface horse, he should be given a long look. His move in the Derby was impressive and if the jock hadn't started him so early, he would have possibly finished better. I think he's sitting on one if he can handle a fast dirt track. And, if the track comes up wet, he has a big chance.

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

jayjay — Fri, 28 May 2010 19:39:55 GMT

Marilyn : Just an FYI, Drosselmeyer is being ridden by Mike Smith.

runfast : As I've mentioned before, if QR already has won on the distance, it wouldn't matter to me if he runs in 6 furlong races coming up to the Classic. But yes, there's a long time between the Met Mile and the Classic so maybe he'll run in a longer race before the Classic, at least I hope so.

Slew : I think you misread Shelly's comments about the Wood. She was saying that the Wood seems to be putting bad luck to its winner with regards to making it to the Derby. The last 2 winners of the Wood came up injured before the Derby. She was just saying to maybe AVOID it when prepping for the Derby, she never said to eliminate the race.

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

TerriV — Fri, 28 May 2010 19:37:48 GMT

I thought Drosselmeyer was being ridden by Mike Smith. When did Kent D get the ride?

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

Tim G — Fri, 28 May 2010 16:58:04 GMT

What? Jimmy can talk? Yes I know, I've talked with him.

He's an excellent horseman, very cautious, maybe overly.

Depends on how bad the quarter crack is to what degree it inhibits a horse and his training.

The stuff coming from you is ludicrous. As I tried to write, I doubt you've ever even seen a quarter crack up close and in person.

Talking about rank beginners? Buffoonery and bombast doesn't qualify you as any kind of expert. The proof is in the pudding and YOU are the one proclaiming yourself as a legend. Betting on favorites, jumping on Jason's picks, pretending like you know something/anything? Doesn't make you a legend. Also doesn't make you know that it isn't THEN it's THAN. geez that is so ignorant.

Anyway, get back with me when you've developed a horse, bought one, bred and raised one, run one in a race, any race it doesn't even have to be a G1 like mine have run in. Then you can tell me all about it from your level of expertise.

runfast???? LOL Yes I was talking to Draynay. I understand, no problem, he confuses a lot of people with his gibberish.

I was telling Shelly that I agreed with her.....

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

Marilyn — Fri, 28 May 2010 16:55:42 GMT

Don't count out Drosselmeyer just yet. He IS being ridden by Kent Desermeoux and HE is well known for upsetting the Belmont Stakes with a longshot. Just a thought.

re: Belmont May Give Us a New Star

thomas — Fri, 28 May 2010 16:38:46 GMT

quality road can go a 1 1/4 he was second in the gold cup to summer bird and was re rallying.