Belmont 142 Picks

re: Belmont 142 Picks

Draynay — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 13:54:40 GMT

Tim, you need to come to grips with the fact Z is a average dirt horse and nothing more. You will NEVER see her race on dirt again.

re: Belmont 142 Picks

jayjay — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 22:28:18 GMT

The addition of Zardana pretty much confirms that they really really want the record. Zardana was added to be the rabbit for Zenyatta, am I all for it ?? YES!!! hehe.

re: Belmont 142 Picks

jayjay — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 21:47:33 GMT

Well, it turns out that Sheriffs has decided to go the Hirsch after the Vanity. It doesn't make sense to me, and what worries me is that they have made that announcement way before the Vanity. I just hope that Zenyatta is okay. If I have to guess, the only logical explanation for ME is that they probably think her age is catching up to her. I have to say I'm disappointed with their decision but I still support it. She is still the great Zenyatta to me. Obviously, this proves the fact that they really don't care about the HOTY award otherwise they would change the schedule from last year. It seems they really just want to race her fun, and if that's what makes my Zenyatta happy and racing then so be it.

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jayjay — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 21:40:19 GMT

Greg J : That's what I thought was the plan all along but obviously, it's all a guess on my part. I believed that they were after the record and whether they get it or not, the schedule will open up and they will try the boys before the Classic. I'm hoping that you have more inside info and that it is true.

re: Belmont 142 Picks

jayjay — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 21:32:06 GMT

LDP: Just one more comment and then we can both ignore each other here lol. If you're a fan of Rachel, you'd know what kind of running style she has. She needs to be on or near the lead, that's how she wins her races. She's tough on the lead. Last year's Preakness ? Of course, the other speed horses will go to the front, no one was that stupid to let Rachel get a soft lead, that's normal in racing whether it be G1 or a 6250 claiming race. How long have you been into horse racing ??

Just because other speed horses went with her, doesn't mean they were trying to "gang up" on Rachel, their running to their style of racing, that's how they run. How in the world would someone not expect Da Tara to run on the front when that's all the chance he has in winning. He won the Belmont because no one expected him to go to the front and run away like that. It's one of the best reminders we've seen in Belmont. This is the reason why the past few Belmonts, the talk was that the winner will be near the pace.

I don't believe that you were "curious" to see how she will fare against getting "banged up." She has overcome adversity and I've told you to watch the Santa Margarita race this year. But no, that wasn't enough for you, as I've said in my last comment, you wanted her to run against the boys, go to the lead and get ganged up on and pushed around so that you can see if she can still win. This whole thread between you and me was about you trying to tell me how she would do if she was ganged up on the way Rachel was. So if you were just "curious", what kind of reply were you expecting from me ? Just say "yes" she won't win ? From the get go, your "scenarios" never made sense as evident by the other folks that were trying to explain things to you.

Thanks to all the others that tried to make sense of this thread lol, I was really confuzzled by LDP's point.

re: Belmont 142 Picks

Tim G — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 20:58:17 GMT

correction SHE, Zenyatta, tells HIM, MIke, when SHE is ready to run.

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Tim G — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 20:36:10 GMT

LDP I was there I saw it, the trip was no piece of cake.

The race she got boxed in then it miraculously opened up for her? No, Mike said they were able to get her out of it. She does a lot of that on her own. Why can't you just celebrate Rachel's achievements last year and like someone said, move on? You're like someone else who is obsessing over this.

Here's an idea, why don't you contact a horseman who really knows the game and see what they think about what you're saying.

One that I know said the Rachel of last year, he'd take at 1 1/8, but at a 1 1/4? He'd take Zenyatta.

He hates the synthetics and also said last year that the mare needed to come out of Cal. Well when she did this year to run in the AB? He said the horse that should have won it DID. Then said "The good guys won".

You're talking about Rachel and her races, not Zenyatta. It doesn't matter what Rachel did last year. That's over, done, finito. She hasn't performed this year. Yet you don't see anyone saying she'll never win another G1 or any of the rest of that.

I'm really concerned that someone who has presented themselves as a diehard fan and face it that's all you are, is perpetuating this idea that the only way to determine whether a horse is really great is for that horse to run a race where she is getting in trouble, getting boxed in and blocked. Most of Rachels races were glorified works last year. She had very few issues other than having to run her heart out in a couple of races.

The other thing is have you ever thought that this mare as Mike has said, takes care of herself? He tells her when she's ready to run and he admits the few times she's struggled, were his fault.

I'm not sure you're well served to keep on with this tack. You have people on here thinking you are weird, obnoxious and comparable to Draynay. Aren't you a better fan and person than that?

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Householder — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 20:21:33 GMT

I guess it's too late to ship Zenyatta to the FDL. Thanks for the heads up Jackson.

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Householder — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 20:14:58 GMT

Blah blah blah...Zenyatta was supposed to get beat by Ginger Punch (good grief we spent 4 months slapping Jason around on his BC rankings) and then she had no chance against a "well rested" Music Note. I'm sorry your 0-16 but I can't help you if you don't help yourself. Stop betting against her and start enjoying her. Free Zenyatta bobbleheads this Sunday.

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CV — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 18:22:13 GMT

"If the leader had been RA last year, she wouldn't have gotten there in time."

LDP, if the leader had been Rachel, there would have been a fast pace and this hypothetical discussion of yours would not exist. It would be the same with Quality Road.

"What do you think Garret tried to do all by himself on LIS last year, huh?"

Gomez made Zen check off his heels once and she was agile enough that Smith simply moved her around him. In your scenario, I guess you think Gomez would have continued to drift his horse in front of Zen, which would have killed his chances of winning.

And let me insert some logic here...Don't you think other jockeys would be trying to beat Quality Road in a race? Or do you actually believe all of them would be focused SOLEY on Zenyatta?

"But heck many of fanatics like you like to just read what you want to then come back and use only that. Or you are just being to thick to actually understand the actual point."

Sweetie, if you want to learn the definition of "thick" or "fanatic" go back and read some of your posts in which your stubbornness and hot temper override common sense and logic. One example would be the foul mood you exhibited after Rachel's first loss this year. Fanatic, much?

I'm done trying to discuss what I considered a point of common sense with you in this thread, since you continue to stubbornly discount it.

Peace.

re: Belmont 142 Picks

Greg J. — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 18:09:40 GMT

The Field for Rachel's race:

1.Multipass

2.Made for Magic

3.Distinctive Dixie

4.Rachel Alexandra

5.Jessica Is Back

And, Yes, Calvin is on Rachel...

re: Belmont 142 Picks

LDP — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 18:02:19 GMT

Laz,

You see a troubled trip, I do not. She was not in close quarters at all. She was in the Santa Margurita, I probably butchered the spelling there, but not againt horses who were all that special. That race was impressive to me, but, it was not against real quality horses. If it happened in the Classic, I still feel she would've won. IMO what will make or break her in a race against horses like she faced in the Classic are two things. If she goes wide, it will not happen, unless the competiton backs up, which they didn't do in the Classic. If the pace is quick and horses back up, she will eat them alive if she goes to the outside. The other thing is if she gets boxed and that pocket does not open up, like it did in her 2010 debut.

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sodapopkid — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 17:37:12 GMT

How is Rachel ever to get her desire to win back if they keep putting her in these extra soft races.

Jason, Where is your new blog titled " Rachel running in the FDL, Say it aint so"

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KatSan — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 17:28:50 GMT

LDP, you have no idea what actually happened to Genuine Risk.

Angel carried her wide. D Wayne asked if it was intentional and he said no. Their was an inquiry, a stewards hearing and then a hearing from the Maryland Jockey Club. If it hadn't been a filly and if her owners hadn't been so important in East Coast racing the whole thing would have been dropped right away.

Your comments about jocks ganging up on each other? They might do it on the smaller tracks those that are a step up from a bush track or in a fit of anger one might do something stupid but if they knowingly planned on trying to stop another horse thats called collusion. They would be ruled off for life.

You have some sick idea that in order for Zenyatta to prove herself everyone should cheat, and yes if a closed hole or the rail closing up doesn't occur as part of the natural events of running a race? It's cheating.

I seem to remember someone suggesting that Calvin no longer just be given the rail and there was all kinds of crying on here.

You can ride on the rail and not try to block another horse, just have enough sense to take your horse on the shortest route if that is where the track is playing best.

I seemed to remember two races where Zenyatta ran into traffic. One she got stopped dead and the TV guys even said shes a big mare it'll take her a minute to get going again. In two other races she ran into traffic and went inside and outside. I even remember you wrote that any other horse would be taken down if the cut in like she did. Face it and be honest, you are letting your love for Rachel Alexandra blind you to the real picture. I just wonder, did you love her as much when a nobody like my old friend Hal Wiggins had her? You loved Curlin. Did you love HIM as much when Helen had him, before my long time acquaintance Steve got her? Is it just the fact that those are the connections you love? I loved Irby, Jess's uncle, but I can't see much of Irby in Jess. I don't know the Mosses but I love their mare.

I also seem to remember you and everyone else who does that type of thing, saying what Zenyatta did in 08 had no impact on the Horse of the Year in 2009. Well whatever the horse of the year for ANY year did when they were winning that title has no bearing on any other horse of the year in any other year.

Its over its done move along. The politics will decide who wins it this year. I just think you cant bear the idea of Zenyatta winning it. You and Draynay are two of a kind.

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LAZMANNICK — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 17:20:42 GMT

Footlick

I agree with you. Something is wrong, or at least JJ thinks there is. Racing in the FLD is going to bring nothing but ridicule, and if she ever got beat, the blogs will be terrible and as much as I am a fan of Zen and constantly take Zen's side against Rachel, I sure don't want to see that. I would have thought skip the Foster. It's too tough for her right now and would probably be the toughest field she has ever faced. But to stay away from New York and a chance at redemption against the two fillies that beat her this year does not sound like a lot of confidence to me. One thing for sure, if she does have a bad weekend I'm going to take heer side.

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LAZMANNICK — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 17:15:05 GMT

LDP

Just one last thing. Trevor Denman's call mid way in the turn just before the quarter pole tells me that he thought she was hopelessly beaten (still has a lot of work to do). The other thing you're forgetting is the trouble she had in the stretch the first time around, coming out of the, not changing to her proper lead in the stretch, etc. She had by far the worst trip of any horse in the race.

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LAZMANNICK — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 17:12:22 GMT

LDP

That's one of the points I'm trying to make.......You don't start your run at the quarter pole, interrupt it at the eighth pole, and then start up again when you are still behind a fair number of horses, all of whom still have their momentum, and then draw off and win like she did against a top class field unless you are a truly remarkable horse, a cut above if you know what I mean. And it's true, even if you don't want to admit it, she wasn't really all that extended.

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Householder — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 16:45:52 GMT

It think the California Horse Racing Board's decision to force racing over synthetics has to weigh heavily on one member in particular. For a moment suppose all 16 Zenyatta wins were on dirt. It is probably enough to make Jerry Moss want to drive out to Santa Anita and rip the stuff out with his own two hands.

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Householder — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 16:38:37 GMT

"The only chance Zenyatta has to win HOY is to beat Rachel in the Distaff and hope Quality Road doesn't win the Classic" (Draynay).

Your making perfect sense. This is exactly what they are gambling on. Who's to say that RA won't be retired after another loss (I would say 50-50) and that Quality Road even makes it to the Breeder's Cup with his foot issues?

Their best chance is to point towards the Ladies Classic and hope for a continued week 3 year old male division and a uneventful older male division.

Rail Trip? Sure I would bet him at 1 1/4 at Hollywood. He loves the track. Can he get that distance anywhere else? That remains to be seen. Quality Road is the standout but I would like to see him on a 1 mile course before hitting him at 4-5 Breeder's Cup day. At some point he has to leave the "wide sweeping turns" behind.

Right now I think there are more questions than answers with the HOY vote some 8 months away.

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Carlos in Cali — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 15:57:17 GMT

Real quick..LDP, You cannot be serious? You've gone down the deep end now.Put those fantasy books down and focus on the obvious: Zenyatta is in a league of her own,only an error by Mike Smith can get her beat.

Jason, are you insane?.. how many times have you said Zenyatta won't win? LOL. A little too much 'liquid-courage' before noon huh? :)

Dr. Drunkinbum, next time you meet a single mother...RUN!

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Footlick — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 15:57:02 GMT

Well, Rachel is in the Fleur de Lis with only one other horse committed so far. I hope there will be others running. Otherwise it's a match race against a horse who is totally outclassed. It would be nice to at least have 4 others. It's not fair to either horse. I know alot of people are going to make comments about it, many probably disparaging, but it's not the horse"s fault that her connections picked the Fleur de Lis. I feel they should have gone to the Phipps. That race is supposedly going to have Unrivaled Belle and Zardana. She wasn't disgraced by either of them and she fits with that field. If she has improved since the La Troienne, it would have been the logical next step. If she hasn't, then the Fleur de Lis makes sense. I don't think she is in any shape to run in the Foster, so I don't really think that was a viable option. It's a sad time, because Churchill said they have had problems trying to fill the race. Hopefully she runs well and this will give her some of the confidence back that she needs.

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Tim G — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 15:43:09 GMT

Hey Jason, why don't you do a Q&A with Jerry and see if he's chasing the HOY?

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Greg J. — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 15:18:55 GMT

I will say it one more time, This will be Zenyatta's last race in California people, Her next race WILL be on the East Coast after the Vanity, The first week of August, Of course, That is if she is 110% healthy, Mark my words...

re: Belmont 142 Picks

LDP — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 14:57:14 GMT

jayjay,

I said I was curious. Just because I would like to see her overcome some adversity over some graded stakes winning males that are that much better than the females she has face is not wishing her to get "banged up". Never would I wish a horse get hurt. Obviously you like twisting words just as I do debating.

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Slew — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 14:55:24 GMT

Atthebarn2: I totally agree with your original post. Ignoring Dray seems the wisest decision since he's always chalky and even disavowed RA in another post.

Slyder: You cracked me up with your conversation with First Dude. I loved every word of it.

Dr D.Still love you.

LDP: You wrote about Zen, " I am saying I would like to see her really tested. She's never been ganged up on and I'm curious as to what would happen if every jockey was riding to beat her." I'm guessing you totally missed the BCC last year. Too bad. It was great.