Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

travisb — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 01:09:11 GMT

I think big brown is a faker. I think he will go down like Rock Hard Ten and Bandini. I may be wrong but I think the Florida Derby will be the best race he ever runs and Florida is a long way from Louisville. I can't wait to see him quit when he gets a bunch of dirt kicked in his face. I don't mean to talk badly about the horse, I will admit he is talented, but I just don't think he's tough enough. To win the Derby it takes a horse who would rather die than lose, and I have not seen that in this horse. He may be a superstar, but he's still got some proving to do to convince me.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Leah P. — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:48:25 GMT

I Agree Whit draynay Crown Big Brown Now Hes Clearly Done More Then Pyro And Any Anther Race Horse

in Kentucky We Will see What Happen's on The First Saturday in May

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

draynay — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:38:53 GMT

Bob Black Jack this years Hard Spun ?

The SA Derby was run in splits of 23.3 47.5 and 111.64 Hard Spun ran MUCH faster in the Derby and Big Brown ran a full second and a half faster. And for added measure Big Brown first time on dirt and two turns ran a full second faster than the great Barbaro...

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Householder — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 18:58:48 GMT

Jessica H. Gayego in the Arkansas...no one was watching/waiting for this...seems the horses from the west have all been dismissed. He caught Bob Black Jack in the San Felipe and just got nailed by the very consistent Georgie Boy in the last few strides. Any one of these horses has a chance to impact the exotics. I would be fearfull to leave this years Hard Spun out (Bob Black Jack) and I don't see much now to separate Col John from Gayego. Throw out Pyro and War Pass perhaps leave in BB and go deep with anyone who has campained at SA.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

draynay — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 00:46:56 GMT

Ok... I have seen all the preps and it has done NOTHING to change my mind... Big Brown is simply much better than these other horses. War Pass will not get the distance... Col John has never run on dirt and barely caught two tiring front runners in the Santa. Pyro got crushed by average horses and nearly finished last... he is just too slow. Tale of Ekati barely finished the Wood. So who is left ? Maybe Smooth Air... well he got crushed by Big Brown already. Something is going to have to happen to Big Brown in the race to stop this from being an easy jog for him. What that could be I have no idea.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Householder — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 05:26:34 GMT

Could not agree more with Matthew W. April 7. Tiznow beats the Irish Champ Giant's Causeway and KY Derby Winner Fusaichi Pegasus in the Breeder's Cup Classic at 3. Then he proceeds to clean up in many states at 1 1/4 miles setting a few track records along the way at this distance. C John's female line looks just as classy. As we all know most of these Derby Hypes are closing milers...mile sixteenth at best. (Tapit/Essense of Dubai). I would expect to see Pyro in this years BC Mile on the Turf.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Marlene — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 22:55:14 GMT

Re: Easy Goer comment Apr. 3rd

You are definitely right on. There are a few good horses and the luckiest one to get a good trip will win

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

gman59063 — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 02:13:14 GMT

I watched War Pass this weekend and I also watched Big Brown run in the Florida Derby. Both are magnificent horses but the things that I noticed was that War Pass never looked comfortable in the post parade or in the gate, he didn't look like he was in a positive frame of mind. When the race was over he looked completely wore out.

When I watched Big Brown he won by 6 or 7 lengths and looked like he could have run another mile.

Having watched those two races as well as the Tampa Bay Derby I would have to put my money on Big Brown.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Johnny — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:10:14 GMT

Draynay, Big Brown still has to win the KY Derby, not an easy feat for any horse, no matter how good he may be. This, in my opinion, is the toughest American race to win. I hope Big Brown runs well, but he's going to have 19 other exceptional three-year-olds to contend with, including War Pass (I hope he gets there first), Pyro, Colonel John, Recaturetheglory, Court Vision, plus other horses, all wanting to get there first.

It's good to have confidence in your horse, but I would never get cocky nor would I ever underestimate my opponents.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

cybertron log — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 06:09:56 GMT

I'm not sold on Big Brown. He's big, he looks good, he ran down the rest of the field in the Florida Derby, it looks like his pedigree can pull it off, but I don't like his lack of experience and his feet. Maybe one day a horse will come and win the KDerby off of one race or something, but right now I'd like to see a horse with a solid 2-year-old foundation, like Pyro. Also, I'm not very fond of horses who have issues with their feet. It's not that I'm prejudiced against horses who have the talent to overcome their physical problems, but I'm worried about soundness issues in the future.

I can never understand the numbers and sheets game, but I think it's because my high school calculus teacher installed a healthy hatred of numbers and stats in me. I prefer looking at the horses themselves, how they move, how they run, what they've run in and against who, how they're bred, and all of you guys' comments. That's why I threw out Dennis of Cork once I heard he was being pulled out of the Rebel and going into the Illinois Derby. Forget the sheets; he NEEDED that Rebel.

I think Pyro's a great horse and I don't care that people say he's too slow. He does what he needs to do, and he's shown us what he's got while doing it. So what if he lost to War Pass three times? He's coming into his own now. I think War Pass needs to get seriously lucky to win the Derby on the front end, but War Pass (and Big Brown and Recapturetheglory and hopefully Bob Black Jack) would provide a fantastic pace.

And as a West Coaster, I'm biased towards our boys and girls. I'm endlessly amused by this intense dislike (to put it mildly) of the synthetic. I didn't like it in the beginning, but since they're not removing it anytime soon, might as well adapt to it. Looking at the Colonel, I don't think it would matter what kind of surface he ran on. His dad beat up the world on dirt, and there's Turkoman, too. Distance and stamina isn't an issue at all. He needs to quicken up, though, and stop swerving when he gets the whack on the left side. Bob Black Jack's a shocker for me - he DID look like a serious sprinter and then he comes out running in his first two routes. I hope he joins the Colonel in the KDerby gate.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

dehere — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 03:28:21 GMT

forget about what horses did in the bluegrass, that was a speed favoring track anyway if Big Brown runs a beyer in the 110-115 range he wins it for fun. I think this barn might have him ready to do it.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

draynay — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 15:27:40 GMT

What more does the horse have to do? He won as a two year old on grass by 14. First time ever on dirt he runs a 104 and wins by 12.

He runs in the Florida Derby against the best and brightest from the impossible 12 hole and crushes the field with mind blowing splits... what more does he have to do before you say hmmm he is going to be the one to beat in the Derby!!!

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Johnny — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 18:58:03 GMT

With regard to Big Brown again, for anyone still not sold on him, that's perfectly legit. As I stated earlier, I'm not overhyping him, but still think he'll most likely be one of the top three KY Derby finishers.

I know we're already aware of this but it merits revisiting: his bloodlines. Big Brown's grandsire was Danzig, his damsire Nureyev. He's 3x3 Northern Dancer, 3x4 Damascus, and 4x5 Round Table. From what I've seen so far, he probably has a very high cruising speed, and whether it's dirt or grass, fast pace or slow, should run all day.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Jessica H. — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 18:02:49 GMT

One more thing, it's going to be really funny if the Colonel wins the KD in a really fast time because his Beyer will have to drastically jump up. On another note...watch Gayego in the Arkansas Derby;)

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Jessica H. — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 17:58:50 GMT

Slot, and all the others who liked the Colonel before the SA Derby, I hope you got a nice win bet off on him at that price...I can't believe that he went off at 5/2. I was screaming for him to get up, and didn't think that he would because he was so far back. As for the Beyers, I agree with you. They have definitely been dumbed down on the synthetic surfaces this year. It is ridiculous that the Colonel didn't break the 100 barrier. That is why it is so important to watch the races.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

slot — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 16:53:11 GMT

Can anyone out there properly explain the numbers given this weekend? Specifically, the beyers and chef-de-race performance point (PF) numbers for the SA Derby and Wood. Tale of Ekati gets a 93 beyer and Colonel John a 95. PF points given (the lower the number the better) were a -67 for Tale of Ekati and a -45 for Colonel John. I understand that the Wood was run on a supposedly drying out and tiring track but c'mon. So Tale ran a far better race? Don't think so. According to PF points that -67 for Tale equates to running to Par for a Kentucky Derby WINNER. I've said all Derby prep season that there is a bias against the West Coast horses due to the synthetic surfaces. El Gato Malo couldn't break a 100 Beyer when running a 133.2 mile. There are other glaring instances of shaky numbers assigned. But Colonel John can't break 95 for a 1.48 1 1/8 coming home in 23.80? Something's out of whack.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Slew.em.All — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 15:54:38 GMT

draynay: If Big Brown ran on any track other than Talladega...I mean Gulfstream, the splits, final time and his beyers would be far less than what he's been given so far. And he'll be just another "impressive looking" Derby prep winner, like sooo many other Derby flops have before him!

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Slew.em.All — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 15:40:51 GMT

dotcom: Didn't Street Sense prep for the Derby on Synthetic last year?(Bluegrass 2nd.)..yeah,thought so! Anyway, only 1 of the horses that ran this past weekend is going to factor in the Derby,Colonel John. Like I said a couple weeks ago,he's legit!..And you can toss-out the Fla.Derby horses,though I would love to see War Pass/Big Brown eyeball each other along w/the other speed horses.Watch what Pyro does to his competition in the Bluegrass next week!!...stay tuned..

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Johnny — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 14:38:30 GMT

I heard yesterday that Tomcito will be running in the Lexington Stakes on April 19. I guess the connections are still hoping he gets the earnings for the KY Derby, but that's only two weeks after that (if that's what they're pointing for). I like this horse and it seems that he'd be rushing it to get in. I still think his best race would be the Belmont Stakes.

I hope it works out.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

draynay — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 14:14:08 GMT

Col John closed in time and won a close one....so what? He did not run a fast time and he did not run at fast splits. Do you honestly think he can close on Big Brown who would have had a 8 length lead at the stretch? Col John has yet to break a 100 Beyer and you think he has a shot in the Derby?

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

the wiz — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 12:06:10 GMT

Colonel John's performance on Saturday was brilliant. I am still concerned that no matter where they place him he always runs his first 3/4's in 1:13+. That may leave him with too much to make up in the Derby even with his explosive kick. Remember Captain Bodgit? Tale Of Ekati and War Pass could they have crawled home any slower? Unless they have adjusted the times I have seen, the last quarter by both was dawdling. I haven't seen the Beyer fig for either of these but am guessing it will not impress. The Illinois Derby although run in a very respectable time likely produced very little as far as a top Derby contender. Ever see anyone as surprised as the connections of the winner that they actually pulled it off? I can't wait for this weekend's surprises to set up another thrilling Run For The Roses. Enjoy the ride!!

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Matthew W — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 08:21:38 GMT

Yes, Col John is coming up to the Derby the right way--Consider: 'John didn't have to win the SA Derby---while Big Brown HAD to win Fla Derby cuz he had no graded earnings---a bounce is not under the realm---having said that, if he shows up he wins, he looked that good...and I like Col John to place 2nd to 'Bwownie----I think Pyro's Louisiana Derby was weak---his time was 10 lengths behind Circulay Quay's race on the same card-----I'd love to see Tiznow score a Derby winner---he was just that good of a horse---people forget about his back problem as a four year old----he was a whole lotta horse....

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

dotcom — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 07:36:54 GMT

colonel john looked good because of his running style on the poly...i hate synthetic surfaces, especially for derby preps. i will tell you that the derby tri will not have one california horse or bluegrass horse...florida derby winner BB looks like a beast and watch out if tomcito eeks in on earnings...im playing BB over tomcito, smooth air, and golden spikes in the derby

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Householder — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 05:03:39 GMT

Colonel John certainly has the right pedegree, is super consistent (never worse than second), works well, has a trainer who interned under the best, and ran the fastest 1 1/8 of the weekend preps. Based on breeding alone he should handle War Pass, Pyro, and BB.

re: Don't Crown Big Brown Just Yet

Johnny — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 03:12:04 GMT

Along with Pyro, Colonel John is going to be one tough cookie. Not only that, but after what I saw yesterday at Oaklawn, I have to think the California synthetic form will transfer to Churchill, even though these are two different tracks.

Bob Black Jack is worthy of the Derby if his trainer brings him there. He doesn't have to be on the lead either, as yesterday's Santa Anita Derby demonstrated. I hope he's entered, because having a world record setting sprinter capable of going a route of ground will only add to the excitment. He seems a bit green yet, so hopefully he'll work that out. He certainly enhances the dynamic of the race. I hope Court Vision has a good race as well. Maybe he's sitting on a big one, who knows.

The horse that could actually set the pace is Recapturetheglory, although Big Brown and "my" War Pass will make sure he isn't lonely.