It's Time to Turn the Page

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

GoldenBroom — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 18:55:00 GMT

mz: The reason I asked is not so far fetched...ever heard of Jazil (Rags to Riches). Giacomo and Tiago? Ever seen the sales prices these (yes often duds) fetch in the sales ring? We talk about connecting with new fans...this is another way (hello? anyone listening?). They are fanatics still following Barbaro's brothers and I'm proud to say I'm one of them. Trying to bring in non-traditional betters like females raised on the Black Stallion series (yea right, every horse the Black sired was a winner according to Walter Farley) but who are old enough and have enough money to like and want to go watch the pretty ponies run and any excuse to wear a pretty hat and dress...we are the ones throwing the derby parties and throwing our best Martha Stewart mint julips together to entertain friends and spark an interest in racing. We are also a driving force to get our daughters and (sometimes sons) to their first pony lessons. Someone should take note of the GROWING dressage, natural horsemanship and dude-ranch industry. Cater to the ladies my friends...

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Carlos in Cali — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 01:42:41 GMT

Vengeful Wildcat...

Anyone know what happened to him since his narrow defeat in the Sapling?

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Householder — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 00:51:51 GMT

Alcindor is being pointed to the Malibu opening day at Santa Anita.

Has anyone heard about Unzip Me's next start? She was third to the boys in the BC Turf Sprint at 9-1 or so. Love the Cal Bred (Harris Farms I think) over achiever and she's plenty fast with a good record on the sod.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Mike Relva — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 22:34:06 GMT

TREBLOC

You said it, what a classy bunch of fans. lol

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

crazykid — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 21:43:22 GMT

Archarcharch

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Ranagulzion — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 21:13:34 GMT

MONICA V,

Stamina limitations would be a more apt description for 'Smarty's' defeat in the Belmont Stakes. His sire, Elusive Quality is a track record-setting sprinter-miler that occassionally throws types that can stretch out and his broodmare sire, Smile is a former Breeder's Cup Sprint champion. That pedigree, top and bottom, doesn't suggest 12Furlongs capabilities at Grade one level. Smarty Jones used his sheer class to almost win the race.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Monica V — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 19:56:17 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I don't agree that Smarty Jones has pedigree limitations. He was beat by a fresh Birdstone who didn't run the Preakness. Has Birdstone run the Preakness I do believe Smarty Jones would have won the Triple Crown.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

mz — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 19:53:35 GMT

Golden Broom (love the name) up-and-coming is one thing.

Have you ever looked up: Diamond Jubliee and Persimmon or Nijinksy and Minsky (and close relative, The Minstrel)? How about Ribocco and Ribero?

Speaking of which: any Ribot horses still at stud?

Ted: I feel for the half-siblings. Everywhere they go, everyone asks:"How's Ted?". Probably the same as the questions asked of Julia Roberts.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Ted from LA — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 18:17:24 GMT

I have a half-brother in southern Kentucky and a cousin/half-sister in Missouri. Neither of them can run.

On the topic of this blog, it's really hard to pick the winner on Derby Day, much less 5 months out. If it were easy, Caracortado with be your 2010 Triple Crown winner.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

2:24 — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 16:26:22 GMT

Coldfacts and Ranagulzion: I have enjoyed this debate immensely.

Coldfacts, I would like to see To Honor and Serve became a major TC player. I like his trainer quite a bit. Also, you can probably guess that I am a huge fan of the Bold Ruler line.

So, I'm going to hitch my 2011 TC early rooting interest to To Honor and Serve and any Afleet Alex colts that make the trail.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

GoldenBroom — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 15:00:31 GMT

Just wondering if anyone knows of any famous brothers/half brothers coming of age? I read that Invasor has a half brother foaled in 2008...I think one of the Sheiks bought him as well as the 1/2 brother to Curlin? I think there is a gap in the Barbaro brothers - that Margano will be 2 Jan 1st...also there is a full brother to Curlin somewhere but I think he's still young...

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Trebloc — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 12:46:25 GMT

How great is it that Cliff Lee is going back to the Phillies!! Bummer for all those knucklehead Yankee fans! HA!

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Trebloc — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 12:25:59 GMT

The problem with coldfacts comments is when he writes "no chance". The fact of the matter is that if the colt gets in the KY Derby's starting gate he has a chance. Anyone remember Mine That Bird? I guess last year any horse trainer by Pletcher had "no chance". If Brethren is actually better then Super Saver then how can he have no chance?

The one horse coldfacts likes is Premier Pegasus who has yet to run on dirt and who has he really beat?

To pick the 2011 Derby winner all you have to do is look at the horses that won over Churchill's track last month and those that are bred for the 1 1/4. Uncle Mo will end up being the favorite, but I do not believe he can get the last 1/8 of a mile. So, keep an eye on Brethren, Dialed In, Santiva and Tapizar.

Off to watch some water turn to ice! HA!

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Aluminaut — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 08:10:33 GMT

To early on the Triple Crown Trail for me to have an opinion. Just wanted to say that I'm following the blog and Uncle Mo is awesome.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Coldfacts — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 05:52:26 GMT

Trebloc,

I can only evaluate the historic chances of the horses that I am aware of. Of those that I have seen so far, I think Reverting Reason has the best historic chance of winning. His Cash Call performance on 12/26/2010 will tell if my forecast makes sense. His dame sire was a brilliant turf horse. I am hoping he is not a turf horse as he led in the BCJ and stopped. To Honor and Server also have an excellent chance of winning the derby. The Bold Ruler sire line is well overdue for a derby win and To Honor and Server is from this sire line.

Ranagulzion,

“A P Indy's record in the Triple Crown doesn't remotely compare to Mr. Prospector's”

The above statement relates to two stallions. Mr. Prospector sired the winners of three TC races from 21 3YO crops. A P Indy has sired two from 14 3YO crops. How do you conclude the above? You seem to be confusing the sons and grandsons of Mr. Prospector with A.P Indy. The cold facts I have presented relates to the two stallions and not their sons/grandsons. The sons and grandsons of Mr. Prospector are the most prolific producers of winners of Triple Crown races. That cannot be disputed. My comparison is between the two great stallions. If the truth be told none of Mr. Prospector colts were as good as Bernardini and none of his fillies as good as Rage To Riches.

The Mr. Prospector sire line has been far superior to that of A. P Indy but the two stallions are very close when their respective record is evaluated. I hope this clears up the confusion.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

tcc — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 04:09:35 GMT

Trebloc:

Coldfacts,

Since you seem to know who will not win the Derby? Why not tell us who will win?

Trebloc 13 Dec 2010 6:40 PM

There is a tip in Coldfacts following post to your above question.

Premier Pegasus is far more worthy of mention than those on your watch list. He looks like the type of colt that can engage uncle Mo and stay with him. He appear to be the best son of Fusaichi Pegasus to date. Will he win the derby? No! His stable companion is more likely to. Remember colt that lead the BCJ field.

Coldfacts 13 Dec 2010 2:21 AM

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Tom FV — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 04:04:18 GMT

"Alcindor is a 2 year old. Will be very tough his last race was on nov.28 @ Hol.

I like Umcle Mo but if you look at Alcindor's race he scares me.

Jim 12 Dec 2010 11:28 PM"

Jim, Alcindor is an 07 model, turning 4, not 3 in 2011.

Was nominated to the 2010 Derby but had some problems, slow to develop and back to the farm for some R&R.

Originally one of the 13 that Lukas had for Legends, thus the basketball referenced name.

The rest of them? I'm chuckling at this. Every year the hype and the early picks and very rare that it pans out for anyone. You guys sound like the rest of us in the business, dreaming the dream. Too funny and TOO early to be hyping a Derby horse particularly if it isn't yours. :)

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Ranagulzion — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 03:20:36 GMT

Rachel,

Your point is well taken ...sweetheart. Smart Strike had a low profile start to his stud career similar to his great sire Mr Prospector. I would fancy his chances of producing a Derby winner ahead of 'AP' simply based upon the success of the Raise a Native line.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

mz — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 02:44:07 GMT

Zen's Auntie: what I meant was NO MORE LAWYER JOKES.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Michelle — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 02:18:44 GMT

Question - Does anyone think Keeneland racing is relevant? I love Keeneland it's my favorite track to visit but with all the synthethic versus dirt arguments I wonder.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Ranagulzion — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 02:10:20 GMT

COLDFACTS,

You shouldn't try to tailor the facts to suit your predisposition. I will assert again,without any fear of contradiction that AP Indy's record in the Triple Crown doesn't remotely compare to Mr. Prospector's, neither his sire line. Furthermore I do not see / have not seen any signs that he has any chance of getting close to Mr Prospectors accomplishments in Triple Crown races.

Here are the cold facts of the comparison that you chose to ignore:

1) In addition to siring a winner of each leg of the Triple Crown 'Mr P' has had a grandson, Unbridled, that not only won the Derby but also sired winners of each leg, namely Grindstone,Red Bullet and Empire Maker (talking about a chip off the old block).

2) Mr Prospector has sired nine(9) triple-crown-winner-producing sons, namely,Fappiano, Woodman, Gulch, Gone West, Forty niner, Seeking The Gold, Kingmambo, Our Emblem and Smart Strike.

3) The aforementioned T-C-W-P sons have sired among themselves, the winners of eleven(11) Triple crown races including 3 Kentucky Derbies, 4 Preaknesses and 4 Belmont Stakes. (I will spare you further embarassment by deliberately not mentioning the accomplishments of his grandsons and greatgrandsons in Triple Crown races).

Yes he has a 19 years head start on AP Indy but if you look at the trajectory of their stud careers and consider that Mr P started as an unheralded stallion, unlike AP Indy, the difference should be very clear. I'm not knocking AP Indy as some may think, just putting his overly hyped Triple-crown-winner-producing prowess into perspective.

BTW Favourite Trick was nothing more than a very good 2YO that became a trickster at 3. he ran up an interesting sequence of victories that brought back memories of the ols days when 2YOs used to be raced a lot (eight in a row). that was the main attraction with him. His breeders cup win only flattered to deceive as the 2YO crop that year was weak and the really good ones showed up as 3YOs (Real Quiet and Victory Gallop).

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Ted from LA — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 01:12:35 GMT

I found my thrill on Strawberry Hill, Dr. D.

If I had a dime for every hundred dollars I have I'd be an even richer man.

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Trebloc — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 23:40:26 GMT

Coldfacts,

Since you seem to know who will not win the Derby? Why not tell us who will win?

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Coldfacts — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 21:47:36 GMT

RNGULATION:

"A P Indy has had prima facie “fourteen opportunities” but in light of the number of mares covered/foals produced by him, he has had far more opportunities than the average stallion"

The tale of the tape:

Mr. Prospector: Entered stud possibly in 1975. Not sure if or when he was pensioned (died in 1999)

Racing crop covers 1977 to 1999 = 21 crops.

Only derby winner was sired in 1997 and was from his 20th 3YO crop at age 27.

Only Preakness winner was sired in 1982 and was f his 5th 3YO crop at age 12.

Only Belmon winner was sired in 1979 and was from his 2nd 3YO crop at age 9.

A P Indy: Entered stud possibly in 1993.

Racing crop covers 1995 to 2010 = 14 crops

Only Preakness winner was sired in 2003 and was from his 8th 3YO crop at age 14.

Only Belmont winner was sired in 2004 and was from his 9th 3YO crop at age 15

Mr. Prospector’s only Derby winner came in his 20th 3YO crop. A P Indy has six 3YO crops to achieve what Mr. Prospector has done. His situation is not as dismals you claim. Let it go you cannot justify your claims when his record is so close the stallion regarded as the greatest extension of Native Dancer. Move on the cold facts are against you..

re: It's Time to Turn the Page

Mike Relva — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 21:18:30 GMT

TREBLOC

I agree,that knucklehead should get the pink slip. New Eng is rounding into form at the right time. BTW not a fan of Ryan. He's getting his. lol