Howard Pair Has Potential

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Pedigree Ann — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 19:06:03 GMT

Two races, two months between races, will not prepare ANY horse for the Kentucky Derby, much less one whose pedigree is iffy for distances beyond a mile. BAT's sire has yet to sire a decent horse at beyond 1 1/16. His dam had a Travers-winning sire and was able to win at 8-8.5f, but the female family is heavily sprinter/miler sorts, like his second dam Valid Bonnet. Have to go back to the 5th dam to find one who produced a classic-type horse in Francie's Hat, who was moved up to second in the KyD when Dancer's Image was disqualified.

I thought Peace Rules could go 10f, so don't say EVERYONE thought otherwise. His sire had been represented by 10f and 12f classic types in Brazil the winter (South American summer) before his Derby, so those who had been paying attention knew what was what. Some sprinters can sire classic horses, viz. Oasis Dream.

Snow Chief was NOT bred for speed only. His sire's stakes wins were the Flamingo and its prep the Everglades, both at Hialeah and both at 9f. For you youngsters, in that day, Hialeah was THE SoFla track and the Flamingo THE major Derby prep there. Snow Chief's damsire, the South American Snow Sporting, won Gulfstream Park H (10f) when he was really only 3 (but 4 by North American rules) and twice placed in the Pan American H (Hialeah's big 12f turf race); no lack of stamina in a horse bred on the potent Snow Cat-Claro cross.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Footlick — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 18:46:27 GMT

Karen in Texas- much more enjoyable!

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Karen in Texas — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 17:10:54 GMT

Footlick--- Oh, of course it's all just speculation right now. Ranagulzion's post served to jog my memory--that's all. To me this stuff is so much more fun to talk about than the previous bickering!

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Footlick — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 04:56:04 GMT

Karen in Texas- but that was as a 5 yr old, I believe. I'm not sure you can compare. I think it is 50/50 whether he will get 10 furlongs in May. Remember he may not progress at all and many horses may progress by leaps and bounds. It's just a wait and see thing. But as skyfire said many people didn't think a Bold Ruler foal could get 10 furlongs in May, let alone set a world record for 12 furlongs.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Karen in Texas — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 00:16:24 GMT

Not sure it's pertinent to this particular blog thread, but as Ranagulzion pointed out at 2:25P.M., Uncle Mo may well be able to "stretch out" a bit. Indian Charlie's daughter, Fleet Indian, easily won the 2006 Personal Ensign at 10 furlongs if I remember correctly. She did well at a variety of distances before breaking down in the BC Distaff.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Ranagulzion — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 19:25:55 GMT

I've been re-assessing Uncle mo's pedigree and thinking that he's not as short on his sire's line as it appeared. Indian Charlie, his sire and In Excess, his grand sire could both stretch out although nine furlongs was just about their limit in top company. So far Indian Charlie has not displayed, to my memory, any stamina-inhibitig effect on stamina-laiden broodmares that he's covered (like Storm Cat often did). therefore "Mo" seems to be in good shape pedigree-wise. The distance limitation question arises because of In Excess' dam line via broodmare sire Sing Sing, one that was an undefeated champion 2YO in England winning all 6 starts but in 5 Furlongs sprints. He never won beyond that distance. It explains why In Excess throws mostly sprinters, suggesting a dominant sprinting factor is present. This has not shown up as much in Indian Charlie's progenies.

However, on his dam's side Uncle Mo does not lack stamina influences or Kentucky derby-winner-producing influences within the first 5 generations. Present are 5x4 inbreeding to Northern Dancer, Dixieland Band, Roberto, Danzig and Alydar. He's looking better and better to me. It is going to be a long winter/spring season for "Uncle Mo detractor" Coldfacts. Subject to him training-on at 3, I'm entertaining thoughts of a triple crown romp here (and sweet redemtion for last year's disappointment with the brilliant 'Esky') ...but don't worry, perculation has only just begun ...still warming up very slowly and feeling good.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Slew — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 15:04:55 GMT

Coldfacts: For someone whose second language is English, you are more well-spoken than most for whom it is a 1st language. All is forgiven. It's just that the first ladies of the track resent being called "dames". Azeri said so ;) and now she's brooding in Japan.

I believe if a sire can produce a winner in any TC race, he's eligible to be considered a possible sire of a KD winner. Seattle Slew had Swale and AP Indy. Ap Indy had Bernardini, Rags To Riches, and Sired the dam of Super Saver. In 2010, most of the contenders were from the blood of Mr. Prospector or AP Indy or both. That alone speaks volumes to me about their odds of a winner.

AAF: I don't think anyone is "hating on" Uncle Mo. I believe everyone is highly impressed. But I also believe that most folks are simply wary of picking him this far out from the Derby. We still have visions of the late scratch of I Want Revenge, the early retirement of Eskendereya, etc..etc. Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve have been the most impressive 2 year olds this year, along with Pluck (who runs on grass).

And to others who doubt Uncle Mo's ability to get the distance, the exact same doubts were expressed in 1973 about Secretariat. We never know.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Matthew W — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 07:15:28 GMT

Skyfire but why did Pegram sell out for the big bucks? Was it because he needed the capital? Weird, for a swashbuckling owner/trainer combo, in SoCal where they're running the Strub Series/Big Cap on a superb dirt surface--weird, that they call it a career...

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Coldfacts — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 04:58:23 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

I am in agreement with you in every respect. However, my skepticism should be understood. In the last 50 year a grand total of three Belmont winners have sired derby winners. The last one was in 2009. The rate of Derby success for this group is far too low for one not to use this fact as an elimination criterion. As for broodmare lines, I would automatically eliminate the contender from lines that have been barred from derby success. I used the term barred because there is no other explanation why a combined 1000 plus broodmares sire by Secretariat, Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat, A P Indy have produced only one derby winner. I am still convinced Super Saver won by default. The possibility of Wilkinson winning the derby is extremely remote. There are just too many historic hurdles

You are clearly a fan of Lemon Drop Kid. Kindly accept my apology for not posting the other parts of his impressive résumé. If my records are correct he was is only winner of a TC race produced from a Seattle Slew broodmare.

Slew,

My enormous love affair with women and equines was bound to clash some day. It appears it has occurred with my use of the word Dame for a female horse as opposed to Dam. It’s not the first time I have gotten into trouble. I recall once telling a close female friend that she slipped the foal. I am aware of the distinction as depicted below in three unedited extracts from one of my posts on Jason previous Blog. You will note word Dam appears in the first and second statement. The words Dame and Dam are use in consecutive sentences. Go figure. Post Date (13 Dec 2010 2:21 AM)

“Crossbow: His dam line is none existent on the Triple Crown chart. His dam has too much graded earnings and does not fit the derby broodmare profile. No chance”

“Dialed In: His dam was acquired for $1.3m. No Storm Cat mare fetching that price will ever produce a derby winner. No Chance of this colt winning”

Queen'splatekitten: Dame Sire was a BCC winner. The dam sire of the 2010 derby winner was a BCC winner. It will not occur in consecutive years. Of all the BCC winners to date only one has been associated with the broodmare of a derby winner. No Chance of this colt winning

You must forgive as English is not my first language and I have lot of catching up to do. I must also stop posting when I should be asleep

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

John T — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 03:15:47 GMT

Since this is a slow time Jason it might be a good time to mention

the final foal of Urban Sea.She herself was good enough to win the Arc and two of her son,s Galileo

and Sea The Stars won the Epsom Derby among other important races.

And Galileo has went on to be a very sucessful sire among his offspring is the much talked about European 2 year old Champion Frankel.Urban Sea,s very last foal

will be a 2 year old in 2011 and he is by Invincible Spirit and has

been called Born To Sea.Like his

top class half-brother Sea The Stars he will be trained in Ireland by John Oxx.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Trebloc — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 00:28:55 GMT

longtimetomay,

Thanks! Keeping the fingers crossed that she throws a nice Rock Hard Ten and gets back in foal on the first cover!

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

skyfire — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 00:08:03 GMT

Matthew W: Coolmore gave them an offer they couldn't refuse. Sold out for the stallion big bucks.

Pedigree Ann: nothing happens until it happens. This also applies to Bold Ruler - noone thought he would sire a Derby/Belmont winner like Secretariat.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Tiznowbaby — Thu, 16 Dec 2010 00:06:53 GMT

afleetalexforever,

getting the right ride and the right trip the first Saturday in May is the big trick.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Matthew W — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 23:49:54 GMT

Snow Chief ran fast early in the Hollywood Futurity, then drew out in the stretch--a tour'd'force--he romps in the El Camino Real, up North, then goes back, to Florida, where he's six in front at the 1/16 pole and wins geared down...easy Santa Anita Derby...goes into the Kentucky Derby 8-5 in a big field, that's a heavy favorite, and rightly so....but there was that White Elephant in the room: his lack of stamina in his bloodlines.....fast forward to '11....Uncle Mo, by Indian Charlie/In Excess speed breeding, and you see Snow Chief, who was a heckuva horse--he wasn't a Derby Winner!

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

longwaytomay — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 23:09:27 GMT

Trebloc,

It's easy to say since it's your money, but I would have done the same thing. SS might throw some some studs the next two years and that 5k might look like peanuts!! Hope it happens and good luck to you and your future runner.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

afleetalexforever — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 23:01:55 GMT

I love the naysayer of a horse that has distance limitations. Given the right trip, his ability to break the gates, rate off the speed, stay out of trouble and finish races, it seems to me that those that discount Uncle Mo will need not worry about the 10th furlong, but the 12th furlong in the Belmont that might nab his ability. The 10 furlongs for a patient horse who relaxes with the correct preparation is not an issue (refer to Raven’s Pass and Henrythenavigator 2008 BC). I get a kick out of those that say a horse is a miler or a sprinter; because you know what every horse is a sprinter or a miler at some point because they all want to run as fast as possible usually. Its patient handling and correct conditioning that allows them to stretch the speed out over a longer route of ground. Yes there are validated 10f sires and 12f sires and sires that are well known for sprinters and milers, but every horse with the right ride and trip can get 10 furlongs. Mo’s dosage is 2.20, Smarty Jones – 3.4, Curlin’s was 3.00, Cloudy Night 3.0, A P Indy 2.54, Bernardini 3.19 Roses in May 3.0 Cigar 2.33 Birdstone 3.0 Summer Bird 2.56. The majority of the horses on this list are 10f Route runners who relished 10 panels, some 12 panels.

Example to note is Smarty Jones, do you think his pedigree got him beat in the Belmont. No it was his rider and the inability to relax Smarty off the pace pressure put on by the classless riders in that race. Here is the summation of that race: Purge to the front, Rock Hard Ten and Smarty pressing, when did Rock Hard Ten ever press in a race. 1st ¼ 24.33 ½ in 48.65. Purge drops, Smarty to the lead. RHT continued to threaten as Smarty Jones went 6 furlongs in 1:11.76 (should have been 1:12.65), a mile in 1:35.44 (should have been 1:36.65, and 10 furlongs in 2:00.52. The split for the 10f is all you need to know as he ran the 10f in this 12f race faster then 98 out of 100 10f races.

So continue to hate on Uncle Mo if you want to, he has done nothing but run brilliantly, we’ve not used that word since well 2009.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 22:47:17 GMT

Trebloc

I am too. Same with Hard Spun. Been waiting for their 2yo since they retired. You did good.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Matthew W — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 21:24:30 GMT

If they have a dry track this May, it will take an exceptional horse to beat MoMo--only one thing can beat him: the tenth furlong! Being by Indian Charlie, there's certainly a chance he'll just not be able to get it--his running style, head low/natural speed, makes him look, at least to me, formidable! I'm usually looking all over for a sleeper--this year I think we have a horse that will put them all to sleep!

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Matthew W — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 21:19:34 GMT

Lookin At Lucky the first horse asince Bid to win Eclipse for two/three yesr old--in this economy, anyone wonder why they retired him? Does it have anything to do with possibly getting a deal put together for Del Mar? Soundness? He wasn't as good as Blame/Big Z but they're gone, the stage was set for 2011, then they pulled the plug, for what? Why?

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Matthew W — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 21:15:22 GMT

LOVE Neil Howard--an aside: anyone know why Cho's nice 2yold Premier Pegasus not going in Cash Call? I'm out of the loop anymore....

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Trebloc — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 21:10:10 GMT

longwaytomay,

5K more for Street Sense.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

longwaytomay — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 20:50:33 GMT

Trebloc,

I know I could find it myself but I'm too lazy. Did Street Sense and LDK have the same fee?

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

TJLuvsTizs — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 20:42:12 GMT

Aside from the focus I will put on every single Tiznow 2YO Maiden winner and stakes winner leading up to the Triple Crown my focus is on three other Winstar Boys.

Cal Nation- 1/2 brother to Bluegrass Cat has broke his maiden and was looking really good doing it.

Heisman- Full brother to Any Given Saturday looks to be the real deal!

Bretheren- 1/2 brother to Super Saver who has definitely shown the same precosity at 2 that his brother did!

Can't wait for the Triple Crown Season to really kick into gear!

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

josue555 — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 20:14:25 GMT

not impress at all.

re: Howard Pair Has Potential

Slew — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 19:32:02 GMT

Laz...well I guess I had my two cents in there, but that's inflation for you. Dam, dame, dime,...I guess if we put it on a long shot, we could make some money under the dome.