Horse Not For the Course?

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Footlick — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 02:07:08 GMT

Danzig was classified some time ago as an Intermediate/Classic split Chef-de-Race, meaning that even though he sired sprinter/miler types, he also sired as many classic types. So, it is not out of the question for him or one of his sons getting a Derby winner by his breeding profile.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

emlovestbs — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 23:33:09 GMT

I like Uncle Mo, but I'm not completely going with him til i see him at 3. He seems like he could be our superstar but he's gonna need the right conditioning to get there. I was impressed when I saw him at the BC. Plus I'm not gonna rule BAT out yet. He has some real talent in my opinion and some times that and heart is enough to excel them.

Also, kinda off topic, has any one heard anything about Position Limit? She was my one to watch but I haven't heard anything of her for a couple months.

And one more thing we could ponder, Awesome Feather in the Derby? Just a thought.

-Em

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Ranagulzion — Thu, 30 Dec 2010 02:54:30 GMT

COLDFACTS,

You named two sons and a grandson to rebut my assertion that the Danzig arm of the Northern dancer line throws mostly sprinter/milers. However I'll name four sons and two grandson, just to make my point sharper, and I could name others, so here goes; Dayjur (son, European champion sprinter), War Chant (son, Breeder's cup champion miler), War Front (son, Grade one level sprinter), Lost in The Fog (grandson, sired by Danzig's son Lost Soldier), Rock of Gibraltar (grandson, European champion miler sired by Danzig's son, Danehill). I'm not sure how you would classify Hard Spun, the last great son of Danzig, that featured strongly in Triple Crown races of 2007 but won his first and only Grade One in the King's Bishop (the marquee race for the top 3YO sprinters run on the same day as the Travers). Need I say more?

The Factor looks like a very talented sprinter/miler in the making, to me.

We are ad-idem concerning Thirtyfirststreet and I always liked his sire Good Journey as a top grass miler. There is strong pedigree, top and bottom here. Thirtyfirststreet has lots of class and stamina coming especially from his female family. He definitely is worthy of making the realistic list of Derby prospects.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Coldfacts — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 20:35:03 GMT

Ranagulzion,

“The Danzig arm of Northern Dancer tends to be strong sprinter/miler types. I'll challenge you on that fact.”

Cold Facts:

2008 Big Brown (FL/ K. Derby/Preakness) Sired by Boundary by Danzig

1992 Pine Bluff (AK Derby/Preakness/3rd Belmont) Sired by Danzig

1986 Danzig Connection (Belmont/2nd Travers /3rd Jockey Club Gold Cup/Haskell) ) Sired by Danzig

There are some that have been competitive over a distance of ground. The Factor appears to be very classy and I just love his action and equally love Miswaki as a broodmare sire. Are you aware that Thirtyfirststreet dam sire Sky Classic either won or finished in the top three in five 10F races, Four 12F races and three 9F races. This colt will run forever. One last positive about this colt is the fact that he is in bred to sibling mares Thong/Moccasin. Moccasin was voted Co-Horse of the Year, 1965 as a 2YO. Thong was the dam of Special who was the dam of NUREYEV & FAIRY BRIDGE. NUREYEV was the disqualified winner of the 1980 2000 Guineas. FAIRY BRIDGE was the dam of the great sire and sire of sires Sadler's Wells.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Ranagulzion — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 23:48:11 GMT

COLDFACTS,

I never dismiss time and I'm a believer in speed figures. What I do differently from you, it would appear, is put them in context, giving due regard to variants, bias and surface conditions. Uncle Mo is the fastest 2YO seen out this year and in each of his races he had plenty in reserve. Are you going to deny those cold facts?

In comparing the 2YOs of the past if you avoid references to their 3YO form, you will see that Street Sense doesn't belong with the elite group for reasons already given. I retracted my negative comments about Favourite Trick on this same basis.

Happily we do see eye to eye on a few things. Thirtyfirststreet also caught my eye. That's a true Triple crown prospect. However, The Factor is a sprinter that may stretch out to a mile. No way is he a Derby type colt. The Danzig arm of Northern Dancer tend to be strong sprinter/miler types. I'll challenge you on that fact.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Tiznow Tim — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 16:44:15 GMT

2 words (names) now...followed by a half excited word (name).

Brethren...Archarcharch...Dialed In

Obviously Uncle Mo is the hot girl in class that everybody loves...but I love the possibilities these 2-3 horses bring to the table. With that said,there is a guy named Derek Simon who has created his own pace figures. For those of you who don't know him, he's a very talented handicapper that has termed Early and Late Speed Rations. He notes that the numbers that Uncle Mo has put up are wicked for a 2 yo. I put a lot of stock into what Derek says, but I also know that a lot can change over winter with maturity and others playing catch up. I love what I see in Brethren and Archarcharch. Dialed In is simply a gut feeling but Curlin proved a couple years ago a late bloomer can make a big impact in the TC. As far as The Factor, I don't see him being a real TC threat..I personally think classic distances won't fit him. As for Comma, he won't win the Derby simply because there is no way he won't be pressed to death on the front end.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Footlick — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 21:48:56 GMT

Ranagulzion- I agree that War Pass relished the slop, but he was a very comfortable winner of the Champagne also. I would say that he could have given Uncle Mo all he would want to handle. But of course it is just speculation.

As far as Mr Mott's handling of To Honor and Serve, you call it avoidance, others might call it taking care of his classic prospect. Didn't he state that his horse didn't have the seasoning yet to put him in the BCJ? And he did run a green race in the Nashua. No matter how far ahead you feel Uncle Mo is right now, and Mr Mott probably feels the same way, it is the Kentucky Derby that he is pointing his horse. There have been many a dominant two year old who just does not progress at 3. So we will just have to wait and see. As of now, yes, Uncle Mo is the better of the two.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Coldfacts — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 21:48:11 GMT

Jason,

Below is an extracts below if from a post under your blog titled “It's Time to Turn the Page”

“As usual I look forwards to you bringing to our attention the 2YOs on the radar going into the Gulfstream an SA winter meets. One of the new colts cited in your list has captured by attention. The Bob Baffert trained The Factor has an extremely interesting pedigree”

“This brings us to The Factor. As mentioned above he was sired by War Front a very speedy son of Danzig. His dam was sired by Miswaki who has the distinction of being sire and dam sire of mother and son Arc winners Urban Sea and Sea The Stars. Urban Sea also produced the brilliant Galileo. Miswaki was also dam sire of the sensational Daylami. Now these horses associated with Miswaki broodmares are top class turf performers. It would therefore be reasonable to assume that The Factor would be better suited to the turf. Assuming The Factor is not a turf horse there is a lot of upsides to his pedigree. His sire line is second in # of derby wins in the last 25YR. Two of Mr. Prospector’s sons have been dam sire of two of the last 5 derby winners. (Carson City/Smart Strike) Neither Carson City nor Smart Strike has the broodmare sire record of Miswaki. This colt is a product from the two lines that have been dominant on both sides of the derby chart. With Miswaki as dam sire this colt is a must follow.”

I assume you saw his track record performance while breaking his maiden. The new track at SA is obviously very fast but 1:06.98 for 6F is simply unbelievable for a 2YO. If an allowance of 2 seconds is given for the new surface, he would still record an adjusted time of 1:08.98. His action is fluent and he didn’t appear to be fading at the end. As I have stated in the extract above, Miswaki broodmares have been associated with some exceptional horses across the pond. Could The Factor be one for this continent?

It would be interesting to hear your comparison of The Factor first victory to that of Uncle Mo.

There is another colt that captured my attention at SA. He is Thirtyfirststreet winner of the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes. His pedigree is all turf and stamina. If this colt’s best efforts can be delivered on dirt he has to be a serious derby horse. He looks very big and strong and he only got going when he hit the post in a time of 1:22.20. His sire Good Journey is a son of Nureyev dam sire of Big Brown. His dam sire Sky Classic a son of Nijinsky was nosed out as the favorite in the 1992 Breeders’ Cup Turf. This a colt is that is close to Northern Dancer top and bottom and has no business winning a 7F race against sprinters that can run a half mile in 44 second. He is definitely one to follow.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Coldfacts — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 21:11:35 GMT

Ranagulzion,

It appears you had a good holiday as you have come out firing on all cylinders. If the breeder Cup was around during Seattle Slew’s time, I am sure he would have competed for a million dollar purse. Uncle Mo would only have one stakes victory if not for the Breeder Cup. He is more than a worthy comparison as in spite of his one stakes victory as a 2YO he went on to win the TC.

“Street Sense doesn't qualify for mention in this discussion because one big performance along the rail, on a track that had a clear rail bias doesn't put him in this league”

A colt that holds the biggest winning margin in a faster time being geared down does not compare. Interesting! The said colt closed from 19th to win the derby. I wonder if said bias was present seven months later. He remains the only BCJ winner that went on to win the KD. Secretariat lost his first race and was voted HOY at two. It appears the performances of past champion 2YOs do not compare to those of Uncle Mo. It appears there will be a 12th Triple Crown winner in 2011. Native Dancer was the best of his generation and suffered his only lost in the derby.

“Coldfacts, you should exercise caution in how you bring winning times into the comparison because, as you know very well, tracks vary geographically, daily, hourly and even from rail to rail (on the same track)”

I am in agreement with the above statement with the exception of the caution recommendation. Uncle Mo is not regarded as a potential super horse because he has won three races. The times he recorded in these races are equally impressive as his margins of victory. You stated the following regarding To Honor and Serve: “He has been steered clear of "Mo" in order to position him as an up and coming rival, and no serious observer thinks that he could successfully compete with Mo at this stage.” If To Honor and Serve had recorded a time of 1:34 plus instead of 1:35.86 in the Nashua, would a serious observer have a different opinion? Secretariat is one of 136 Kentucky Derby winners. What set him apart from the other 135? He covered the 10F distance of the race in the fastest time ever. Was he just fortunate to catch a track bias in his favor? There is a direct relationship between speed and time. Dismiss times at your own peril.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Ranagulzion — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 01:02:07 GMT

COLDFACTS & FOTLICK,

War Pass was very impressive but his Breeder's Cup win was on a very sloppy track, a condition which justifies caution in assessment of his quality, since sloppy tracks often exaggerate the superiority of a winner over rivals that haven't adapted to such underfoot conditions.

Vindication was for most part shadowed by the other unbeaten colt Sky Mesa and Chief's Crown was also shadowed by Proud Truth and Spend A Buck in their respective generations. By shadow I mean other rival colts that were thought by some knowledgeable analysts to be equal or superior. Uncle Mo has no shadows. He completeley destroyed Boys at Toscanova along with other "phantom challengers" in the BCJ. To Honor and Serve has been steered clear of "Mo" in order to position him as an up and coming rival, and no serious observer thinks that he could successfully compete with Mo at this stage.

Street Sense doesn't qualify for mention in this discussion because one big performance along the rail, on a track that had a clear rail bias doesn't put him in this league. Period.

As for Seattle Slew, he ran three times as a 2YO with his only stakes performance being the Champaigne, which he did impressively in a very fast time. That performance, in the light of his undefeated status puts him in the elite group but certainly not better than Uncle Mo.

Coldfacts, you should exercise caution in how you bring winning times into the comparison because, as you know very well, tracks vary geographicaly, daily, hourly and even from rail to rail (on the same track).

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Footlick — Sun, 26 Dec 2010 16:41:26 GMT

And, in my opinion, War Pass's performance in his BCJ win blows Uncle Mo's out of the water. That was absolute dominance! Not in the league of Arazi, but it was closer than Uncle Mo's.

Coldfacts- don't discount the Buckpasser blood in Seeking the Gold as a contributor to his broodmare sire excellence.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Footlick — Sun, 26 Dec 2010 16:37:03 GMT

merlinmerry- lol

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Coldfacts — Sun, 26 Dec 2010 12:32:10 GMT

Ranagulzion,

My deal colleague I hope you and your household had a Merry Christmas. Many thanks for the cold facts regarding Arazi’s racing record entering the 1991 Breeders’ Cup. Just another case where I failed to check and verify before hitting the submit button. I the season to be jolly there is no room for folly. You will note I specified he was American bred and since he was foaled after the two of the three horses in your comparison, I though he merited inclusion. I am not aware if the NTRA has changed its assessment but it did consider Arazi’s BCJ performance to be the single-most spectacular performance in Breeders' Cup history.

The unbeaten 2YO Seattle Slew was also excluded from you comparison. He holds the second fastest time (1:34.40) for Champagnes contested at a mile. It appears Devils Bag holds the record of 1:34.20. Seattle Slew is the only TC winner that completed the series of races undefeated. Are you suggesting that The Slew is not worthy of inclusion? Uncle Mo’s performances as a 2YO are impressive but they are no more impressive than a host of others seen in the past. This attempt to label him as a super horse at this point in his career is absolutely ludicrous. Do you believe The NTRA would assess his BCJ performance as “The the single-most spectacular performance in Breeders' Cup history”? Do you believe The NTRA would assess Uncle Mo’s performance in the BCJ as one of the best ever?

He is a nice that has the action of a greyhound. His 1:43 plus clocking in The BCJ does not ranked with the faster time recorded by a geared downed Street Sense. His stable companion Brethren recorded as faster time on his debut for a similar distance. Taking these cold facts into consideration, what exactly am I missing? What is the excitement about? I am in no way trying to discredit the colt but I see nothing to suggest that he is not just another 2YO that as this stage of his career is better that the rest. This is a scenario that is played out each season. After watching thoroughbred racing as long as I have, it takes far more to propel my thinking into the super horse zone.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

merlinmerry — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 20:26:14 GMT

Of course Uncle Mo is a better 2yr old than Secretariat. Uncle Mo won a maiden special weight at the Spa and followed that up with wins in the Champagne and Breeders Cup Juvie.

All Secretariat did was win 2 maiden special weights, one allowance, the Sanford, the Hopeful, the Futurity, the Laurel Futurity, and the Garden State. He finished first in the Champagne by 2 lengths but was dq'd to second after running through Stop the Music like an NFL fullback.

But yeah, Uncle Mo blows him out of the water at 2.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Ranagulzion — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 19:31:56 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Arazi most certainly was not unbeaten in his first seven starts (not six ...this is a cold fact). He lost on his debut, if I remember correctly. However I omitted him reluctantly from the comparison because he ran on American soil as a 2YO only in his sensational Breeder's Cup appearance. Indeed he was equally impressive in his six consecutive wins in France and became reputed for his trademark explosive acceleration from the back of the pack. If we decided to include him amongst the American elite 2YOs I wouldn't object but I'd still think that "Mo" ranks up there with him.

The three other horses that you mentioned, War Pass, Vindication and Chief's Crown were all very good 2YOs I'll agree but i don't recall the kind of aura of impending greatness surrounding any of them that attends the memroy of Secretariat, Spectacular Bid, Arazi, which now surrounds Uncle Mo. I know that you don't see it that way but so far "Mo" is doing a job on your assessment capabilities Bro (he's proving you wrong).

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Coldfacts — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 13:53:37 GMT

Ranagulzion,

How would you compare Uncle Mo’s 2YO performances to the following 2YO champions:-

War Pass

Won Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1,Mth), Champagne S. (G1,Bel)

Vindication

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), Kentucky Cup Juvenile (G3)

Chief’s Crown

Breeders' Cup Juvenile [G1], Norfolk S. [G1], Hopeful S. [G1], Cowdin S. [G1], Saratoga Special S. [G2]

2nd Futurity S. [G1]

I note that the USA bred and European raced Arazi was not used in the comparison. He was unbeaten in six starts entering the BCJ. He was regarded as the European super horse. Does his omission deem him unworthy to be included in the comparison?

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Ranagulzion — Fri, 24 Dec 2010 20:36:27 GMT

I am agreeing with Draynay that Mo's 2YO performances compares favourably with the best including Secretariat, Spectacular Bid and Favourite Trick.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Coldfacts — Fri, 24 Dec 2010 19:01:06 GMT

Jason,

Nice call on Comma To The Top. His PP suggested that he was capable of that performance. It appears he was coming back to the field in the last furlong anf this does not look good for the 10F distance of the derby. The colt I liked disappointed and it appears he has gone backwards since the blinkers have been added. He finished ahead of Comma To The Top as a maiden in the Delmar Futurity. Comma To The Top entered the Delmar Futurity of a 8L maiden victory. He has clearly moved forwards and my colt has not. Without trying to find excuses he might just be a turf horse. His dam sire Known Fact did his best work on the turf. Reverting Reason has a proven Triple Crown pedigree but probably is not as good as his pedigree. In 2008 I was very high on Mine That Bird going into the BCJ, he finished last and I jumped ship thereafter. I will keep an eye on this colt in spite of his disappointing performance.

Comma To The Top is a nice colt but his Derby credentials are very soft. I do however like the fact that his dam Maggies Storm made only 4 starts and earned only $4500. She has an ideal derby winning broodmare profile. The Storm Cat arm of Northern Dancer has been dismal in the broodmare department. However, there is hope as Ice Box dam was sired by Tabasco cat.

The 3rd place finisher in the Cash Call Futurity Clubhouse Ride seems to want a distance of ground. He closed from last into third and appears to be the sort that with time could develop into a top class colt. He is one of about five 2YOs mentioned on this Blog whose dams were sired by Seeking The Gold. The dam of 2010 BCC winner Blame was sired by Seeking The Gold. Candy Ride was such a beast (World Record for a mile 1:31 flat) and Seeking The Gold is far better than Smart Strike and Carson City the two sons of Mr. Prospector that are broodmare sires to derby winners.

Merry Christmas

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Coldfacts — Fri, 24 Dec 2010 16:06:34 GMT

Afleetalexforever,

“It’s amazing to see the comments and the upswing of hatred towards a man that puts his comments out there on a blog”

It is unfortunate that you consider constructive criticism as hatred. Jason is quite capable of defending himself and has duly done so. He never regarded comments on his "One of the most impressive Ever" statement as hatred. I am therefore equally amazed that any well thinking individual could read such a conclusion.

First let me say, Semantics is a game that little children play.

Are you sure you want to associate Semantics with children? I am sure you meant Phonics.

The Statement "One of the most impressive Ever" is just what it is.

You have clearly made my point Iin your defiance of Jason. I indicate that his statement about Uncle Mo performance being one of the most impressive ever is not support by historic records. He is an excellent writer and must recognize that occasionally he will be required to justify his opinions. Based on his statement he clearly think that Uncle Mo’s performance is the best ever recorded in the race. If this was not his opinion, then he could have stated that it ranked amongst the best for the race. The best performance in the race clearly belongs to Arazi. He could have compared Mo’s performance to that brilliant colt. He chose to make a statement that suggests Arazi’s performance was superseded.

He is entitled to his opinion but not the facts. I was only keeping him honest.

“We are trying to talk about a great horse, a horse that has done absolutely nothing wrong in 3 starts 2 in Grade 1 Company”

The above over the top statement is similar to those I have criticized Jason on. Uncle Mo has won three races and he is now classified as great. It is clear the parameters you used to determine hatred is similar to those used for the assessment of greatness. I imagine if Uncle Mo is retired now he would make it to the Hall Of Fame. What utter nonsense! If Uncle Mo is great, how would you classify War Pass who has a similar record as a 2YO and was given a higher speed rating the BCJ?

Afleetalexforever, I beseech you to keep it real.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Coldfacts — Fri, 24 Dec 2010 16:06:09 GMT

Longwaytomay,

Your question has left me puzzled. I have never regarded myself as infallible. If this is the profile I have been projecting then I clearly need to make adjustment. A lot of posts are emotionally driven and are not supported by facts. I try to bring some balance to the issues with what I consider to be measured statements. I would have been nice if you had cited an example of when I have failed to acknowledge that I was wrong. Your statement is rather open ended and consequently I am unable to detail the reasons for my defend my position.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Forbidden Apple — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 15:57:29 GMT

Jersey Tom,

It's funny that you mentioned Ghostzapper, I woke up today thinking about him. Secretariat had a huge heart that allowed him to blow by horses with ease. After reading Keelerman's post about Secretariat's gallop out times, he is the best horse ever in my book. The likes of Ghostzapper, Medaglia d'Oro, or Curlin are simply good horses, far from great. Last year it was Eskendereya and this year it is Uncle Mo, these two are not worthy of champion status.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Footlick — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:54:53 GMT

Also agree with JT. We need to keep or add more distance races into the racing schedules. It is interesting that I read an article by a geneticist who said that there is no way that the Thoroughbred breed could have changed so much in 50 or 60 years. It is genetically impossible. It takes 100s of years. So he suggested that it is a change in diet, supplements and training methods the horses have been given. I had never thought about the short timespan in regards to our horses apparent distance limitations,but remembering my Genetics classes it makes sense. It takes a long time to alter something genetically. So, the combination of meds, training methods (especially our two year olds not having alot of foundation), diet and supplements makes sense also as a theory. Food for thought.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Footlick — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:47:20 GMT

-Keelerman- it was very common for a horse of those eras to start with a 6 or 7 furlong allowance race. I believe it was to get their minds back on racing and a bit more conditioning. I remember a few trainers said that there is no better conditioning than a 7 furlong race. But, as with giving two year olds a decent foundation, that practice seems to have gone by the wayside.

re: Horse Not For the Course?

Matthew W — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 05:23:39 GMT

Monster Malibu! Caracortado/Noble's Promise box....

re: Horse Not For the Course?

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 23 Dec 2010 04:43:13 GMT

-Keelerman

Alydar is another example……he finished his 2 year old season by competing in 8 consecutive stakes and started his three year old season with an allowance race. He finished that season by competing in 9 consecutive stakes and started his four year old season in an allowance.

Another horse whose campaign was drastically different from today was Carry Back. He made 21 starts as a two year old, the first 17 in sprints. Of those, the first 5 were at 3F, the next 8 at 4 ½F to 5 1/2F, the next 2 at 6F and the next 2 at 7F. They must have done something right. The Kentucky Derby was his 8th race of his 3 year old season and 29th of his career.