Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Householder — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 19:26:08 GMT

"Uncle Sam can find no more!"

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

The Bid — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 02:54:44 GMT

Seriously..My name is also Mike...Funny how WE Mike's always seem to find each other one way or another...Watching THS in The Remsen and Nashua, he REALLY scares me just by how easy he runs without exerting any energy...Curious though to see if His turn of foot is Anywhere close to Mo's...As well as his reaction to a Real Challenge before The Turn!!!

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

The Bid — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 02:48:43 GMT

And Mike...MY Real name is Spectacular!!!!!!!!!lmao

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Mike Relva — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 17:19:49 GMT

THE BID

That's my real name,not using an alias.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Draynay — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 16:23:49 GMT

Jason, is it in the air or what? Bid, I wasn't all over Dunkirk I was all over Quality Road until he got hurt. He was the best horse that year and I think he proved it later on. Mo could be the next Citation. I would love it if he is but time will tell. A undefeated Triple Crown winner would be great for the sport. I still like my future bet on THS at 25 to 1.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Ranagulzion — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 16:14:05 GMT

COLDFACTS,

Your defence of The Factor's pedigree in terms of stamina for the Derby distance is quite hollow Bro, with the greatest of respect for your opinion. War Front, an out and out sprinter, sired by Danzig via a Rubiano broodmare is not going to throw a stayer that runs six furlongs in 1:06 and change. Give it up my friend.

I cant believe that one fast race on a souped up track by The Factor has enarmoured you so much that your sense of logic is warped. The argument you raised about Black Tie Affair and Urban Sea to counter Iron Maiden's point only reinforces Iron Maiden's point. Black Tie Affair's female family is loaded with stamina influences giong back five generations in which Hyperion, War Admiral and the blue hen mare La Troinne are all present. It is superfluous to detail Urban Sea's female family.

Regarding Iron Maiden's assertion about Icecapade as a broodmare sire not producing winners at 1 1/4 miles, all you have to do is pull out the cold facts ...if you can find any. Can you?

Otherwise let us watch The Factor's season and see who knows what they are talking about. This is my last posting on this particular subject but I'll continue to follow the debate. .

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 16:10:59 GMT

Coldfacts:

Urban Sea's dam Allegretta was a talented classic-distance horse (2nd Lingfield Oaks Trial) and a full sister to Deutsches St. Leger winner Anno: she was also half-sister to Anatas, winner of the Grand Prix Prince Rose, Belgium's top classic distance race at the time. Her sire Lombard won the Deutsches St. Leger, among other races. She was also inbred to Alchimist, a Deutsches Derby winner who belongs to the same female line as Allegretta's fourth dam, the Deutsches Derby winner Asterbluete. The stamina in this German bloodline in unlimited. Given this background from her mother's side, you cannot give Miswaki credit for Urban Sea's stamina; for a spark of brilliance, yes. For stamina, no.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Slew — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 15:31:56 GMT

Jon...Uncle Mo a clone of Slew??? Do you want my glasses? The only clones I have seen of Slew were Swale and Vindication (who were his sons). Added to that, UM is totally unrelated to Slew and was sired by a sprinter, Indian Charlie.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

2:24 — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 15:07:02 GMT

The Bid - I blame Ronnie Franklin much more than the safety pin. It was once said about Secretariat that if it weren't for his human connections making mistakes he would never have lost a race. The same could be said, I believe, about The Bid especially with regard to Ronnie Franklin and/or the connections' obsession with Secretariat's records. If the Bid won the Triple Crown, I believe he would be universally considered one of the top 4 horses in North American history (with Secretariat, Man 'o War, and Citation). I have the utmost respect for The Bid and believe that any discussion of the Top 5 or 10 NA horses must include him.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

JerseyBoy — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 14:10:40 GMT

Coldfacts:

I have been reading these comments on Danzig as a stamina influence.

I have always been fascinated by Danzig. What I notice though, is that the dam of his best son at stud, Danehill, was by His Majesty out of a mare by Buckpasser. (Danehill produced both speed and stamina).

The dam of his son Stephans Odyssey was by Gallant Man out of a mare by Ribot.(Stephans Odessey was a stayer).

The dam of his son Danzig Connection was by Sir Ivor out of a mare by Princequillo.(Danzig Connection was a stayer too).

Chief's Crown was out of a mare by Secretariat(Chief's Crown stayed).

There might be something to the belief that Danzig produces stamina when bred to stamina influences and is suspect as a stamina influence when bred to other mares. This is just a suspicion. I do not pay much attention to the pedigree of horses after they have raced 3 or 4 times because they show by then what they can do.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

ExTBTrainer — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 13:17:42 GMT

Santa Anita now a dirt track? Judging by the times I would think it was now a "concrete" track!Oh I know -"the horses just bounce over it"-we will see how many break down and how many come back after a meet running over it!

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

JerseyBoy — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 12:54:16 GMT

There has been a lot of discussion of pedigrees on this blog.

I suspect this discussion will escalate after the 8th race at Gulfstream on Friday. I hope my horse does not win because it will affect his price on the Future Pool. I will pray for rain.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Love 'em all — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 12:10:50 GMT

The Factor's Bill O'Reilly poll results are in:

December 28, 2010

Is the record-breaking horse named "The Factor" a pinhead or a patriot?

Pinhead 8%

Patriot 92%

4204 total votes ... Poll closed on January 2, 2011.

Cheers to The Factor and to the 92% who voted for him being a "patriot".

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Bellwether — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 11:23:24 GMT

THE "NICK NACK" FACTOR???..."ZITO LEFT THE SHACK & HE AIN'T COME N BACK"...JACK...SOE DAMN CLO$E ALL YEAR(twenty ten)...THI$ MAY BEE HIS TIME TO REALLY SHINE...THE NEXT "GREAT ONE" WILL BEE A MAY FOAL...& NOE TRIPLE DIPPER FORE MANY MO YEARS...GET REEL BABY!!!...ty...

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Coldfacts — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 04:27:34 GMT

Iron Maidens,

That was a very interesting analysis of The Factor’s pedigree and his potential to effectively get 10F. I note that in spite of the extensive evaluation, you did not definitively state that the colt was incapable getting 10F.

“It's a major stretch if one must go back three generations or more to bolster their argument.”

No one can accurately identify the generation that contributes the most to a particular thoroughbred’s ability. If such a determination could be made we would not be having this exchange. The mention horses in the 3rd & 4th generation of a dam should not be seen as an effort to bolster a position. It is merely to indicate that there is sufficient stamina influence in the dam’s pedigree that could enable a particular foal to carry its speed over a distance of ground.

“ The Factor's sire War Front (Danzig - Starry Dreamer, by Rubiano) has a pedigree leaning towards speed and never won a stakes race beyond six furlongs”

Are you suggesting that a son of Danzig is incapable of siring a horse that can effectively get 10F in top class company? .

“The Factor's dam Greyciousness won 2 of 14 starts sprinting and was second once going a mile”

I am not sure of the value of this bit of information. Secretariat’s dam made one start and was unplaced. Big Brown dam made two starts with one win and Mine That Bird’s dam was unraced. Greyciousness has the profile for a derby winning broodmare.

“The one thing all of these winners have in common is that their sires are all known stamina influences.”

Let me see if I understand the above statement. All the top class winners at 1 1/4 miles or longer produced from Miswaki broodmares had sires with stamina influences. In light of this revelation Miswaki deserves no credit as he was a sprinter. Interesting! Clearly from the above, you place a lot of weight on the stamina influence of sires. If my assessment is correct, you are not being consistent. You have dismissed Miswaki as a stamina influence in spite of the fact that he sired Breeder Cup Classic winner Black Tie Affair and Arc winner Urban Sea. I respectfully request that you must pardon my confusion. Why do the broodmares of a sire that has sired the winners of two of the world top distance races need help from a stamina influencing sires to produce top class stake horses? It does not compute.

“As a broodmare sire, Icecapade has produced no winners at 1 1/4 miles”

There are two sons of Nearctic that still appear regularly in pedigrees. One is Northern Dancer who was produced from a Native Dancer broodmare. The other is the above Icecapade who was also produced from a Native Dancer broodmare. I would not be so bold to conclude that Icecapade is not a stamina influence.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

jon — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 03:19:18 GMT

Uncle Mo looks like a good clone of Seattle Slew, and his jump from maiden to grade 1 wins is really unmatched. I will be curious to see if he can top his 108 Beyer in in the BC Juvenile. If he can, and stays sound, he should be the only colt anyone needs to know for The Triple Crown. Yes, he has some pedigree issues, the same ones that plagued Secretariat. If I recall correctly, Secretariat buried those rumors and his rivals in The Belmont. His Beyer was 139 for that race.

So, if Uncle Mo beats his 108, I would guess 120-130 for the classics.

In short, forget the other colts/fillies/ The search is over. The question is not whether Mo can win the Crown, but whether he will beat Secretariat's speed figures. I think he can. I also think he is going to beat his pedigree.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

The Bid — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 03:16:27 GMT

Mike Relva or WHOMEVER you are...Dray has a way of enticing opinions from ANYBODY!!! I recall absolutely loving FRIESAN FIRE on These blogs a couple of years ago, and Dray was all over Dunkirk...Needless to say, we were both wrong(for ONCE)!!(I wish) Let me remind you...He and I got absolutely LAMBASTED on here re: Zenyatta and her POOR handling by one..MOSS!!! I leave that for another day!!! It is January 3rd...Mo may NEVER run again, I hope NOT, but he has IT!!! Whatever IT is... HE has it, and THS has absolutely a REGAL pedigree...Somebody needs to mention ROCKPORT HARBOR's son finished second by a whisker to THE FACTOR in that race, He should have a say on the TRAIL--Out West...Any thoughts on the Best 2yr. old Fillie- Turbulent Descent's unlikely but possible prospects for Derby or (DRAY dare I say) her possible run @ Rachel's 3yr. old campaign???? The BEST time of the YEAR is only 4 months away and it is a DAMN shame it only lasts for 2 stinking minutes..I am an ETERNAL OPTIMIST and THIS IS THE YEAR...Remember...1979 Should've been the last if it weren't for a BOBBY-Pin or some think it was R. Franklin, whatever it was... The Bid will ALWAYS be MY BOY and The ONE that got me all GEEKED-UP over the Ponies at a very impressionable age of 8... and have been an avid Lover of The Sport Of Kings ever since.......

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

IronMaidens — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 00:53:04 GMT

Ranagulzion & Pedigree Ann, thanks for the compliments.

I like Jaycito too. Supposedly, he didn't handle the track which is unusual, since most of Victory Gallop's offspring do well at CD. I feel the move made by the Zayats to take Jaycito out of the Mike Mitchell barn and send him to Baffert is very telling. The colt should improve with racing and hopefully will be a contender come Derby day.

My favorite is To Honor And Serve. I'm fortunate to live near Payson Park and have met him. I look forward to following his progress this winter.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Ranagulzion — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 21:46:42 GMT

MIKE RELVA,

The only AP Indy line offspring that I'll accommodate on my list are those sired by Pulpit (Sweet Duckie) or Mineshaft (Dialed-In). The Bernardinis, I'm leaving alone for now, until they convince me that the maturity lag for the Kentucky Derby doesn't apply to them. Good luck to you with THS.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Householder — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 19:42:26 GMT

Is Georgie Boy still with Kathy Walsh?

Is Bob Black Jack still around? Let's set some world records for sprinting distances on dirt.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Matthew W — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 19:40:29 GMT

The reason I remember so well about Strub Day, 1980, is: My boss gave me a parlay--he bet a straight Radar Ahead/Double Discount exacta--if that won (it did),I was to parlay it all on Shoemaker in the 9th, which was, in those days, the last race--he figured Shoe in the last/especially after riding The Bid in the 8th--it must have been an "important" horse for Shoe to stay for the last race--it turned out to be Swaps winner First Albert, he pays a ton and I gave my boss hundreds of dollars--he gives me back half(what a tip!)--I went to Santa Anita, got to see Bid break the world record for 1 1/4...and was paid! Radar Ahead was a real good horse--a distinctive brown color--dark chocolate--he was fast--he beat Affirmed as a four year old (Malibu I think) 7 fur--on the square--outran Affirmed...old Double Discount, big, bit swaybacked, old, all class...then Bid/Paster/Relaunch/Valdez in the Strub--what a foursome! Shoe in the last on a future Swaps winner/at boxcars! That is why the day stays in my memories--That cool, windy day stayed with me all these years...

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Matthew W — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 19:25:20 GMT

The day Bid beat Paster in the Strub, Radar Ahead beats Double Discount, in 1:14 for 6 1/2--I'm doing this on memory, I was there--track was fast, all right, but nothing like right now--Santa Anita is as fast/faster than any track in history right now....

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Matthew W — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 19:21:09 GMT

Cho's horse Premier Pegasus is a runner/think he'll route...I'd put him on my list....

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

Householder — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 17:41:24 GMT

Baffert is going to have to take on that buzz saw Comma to the Top sooner or later and with the track coming up lightning fast look for Comma to topple some records. I do hope Coil can return to racing. I really liked what I saw. I think Jaycito is his best bet this early. You have to like the Victory Gallop side of things but his run in the Breeder's Cup was just strange.

re: Baffert Should be a Derby 'Factor' Again

GunBow — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 16:24:26 GMT

Alright, enough is enough with the freeway that is the new Santa Anita dirt course. For opening day, it was ok, as it made a loud statement that dirt racing was back in Cali and allowed fast horses like Twirling Candy, Smiling Tiger, Sidney's Candy, and Switch to really strut their stuff.

However, seeing $20k claimers go 1:14 and 2, or modest allowance horses like Irrefutable go 1:07 and 1 is almost a mockery of the track records and standards of speed.

In addition, I was at Santa Anita yesterday and saw 3 horses vanned off after running on the dirt track. 2 of the 3 were unable to finish. I honestly can't remember that happening on a synthetic surface the dozens of times I have attended the races in person; maybe La Brea day of 08'(Indyanne broke down in the stretch of the La Brea and I remember at least one other incident).

Let's get the track playing about 7/5ths slower.