Allowance With Derby Implications?

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Draynay — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 18:35:05 GMT

Stevebiscuit, do me a favor and bet against UM every race this year and let me know in November how much you won. Good luck.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

stevebiscuit — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 06:45:37 GMT

Uncle Mo hasn't even run yet as a 3 year old and people have already declared him the best in the nation. It's difficult for a horse who was brilliant as a 2 year old to carry their top form all the way to May. It's been done, but it's not easy. After seeing Pletcher's failure to have Quality Road prepared for the Classic after his layoff, I haven't a whole lot of faith that he can pull this off with Uncle Mo. He's a good horse, but so is his competition, many of whom have yet to peak: Dialed In, Boys At Tosconova, To Honor And Serve, Comma To The Top, Jaycito, Stay Thirsty, Tapizar, Gourmet Dinner...plus many more along the way. For all we know, Uncle Mo's BC Juvenile was the race of his life, while those who finished behind him were still learning and developing. If Uncle Mo can toy with the competition in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial like he did as a 2 year old, we might be looking at a Triple Crown winner. I wouldn't count on it though.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

LAZMANNICK — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 01:46:46 GMT

Forbidden Apple

You're right. That's why I want to see him stretch out to at least 9F. I would also like to see him a little closer to the pace. IF he's as good as he looked in the Holy Bull then he looks like a serious TC type of candidate.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 15:49:00 GMT

Lazmannick,

The Gulfstream dragstrip seems to favor speed every time I play a race. The fact that Dialed In closed from so far back is what made his effort brilliant in my opinion. This horse is still learning the game and almost seems push button to me. His future is looking bright!

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 05:09:22 GMT

jayjay

Yeah I saw RFO's race. Professional and fast as heck. He really did remind me of Lost In The Fog. I expected Dialed In to win at GP but when he dropped back so far I thought I was wrong. He was the only one in the race that looked to have exceptional talent but there were many in there that are talented. It was a strong mile race with a number of horses looking really good physically. You had to go by talent, too many looked very good. Other than Dialed In I saw it as a tossup. We'll hear from some of them again. Runflatout looked great pre and post race. Exciting times. Anxious to see RFO, Dialed In, Elite Alex, The Factor, Soldat, and Mo run again. I believe that visually those are the most exciting with strong potential. I'm sure there are more but I haven't seen them all either. I didn't see Machen either. I will be surprised if Soldat doesn't run really well on a dry dirt track too.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Footlick — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 04:38:27 GMT

In his race against Wine Police the track was listed as good according to the video. So it wasn't sloppy or muddy actually

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

LAZMANNICK — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 03:33:25 GMT

Carlos in Cali

You're right. The Wine Police race wasn't on a fast track, but it wasn't sloppy or muddy either. According to the charts it was rated good and the race time for 5 1/2F was 1.03.36. We still have to see him race on a conventional fast dirt track. Personally, I think I'm more concerned about him getting 10F then running well on a fast track. It'll be interesting to see how he progresses.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

jayjay — Tue, 01 Feb 2011 02:07:49 GMT

Laz : No, I'm not giving up on Soldat, I didn't mean it that way at all even though I said I won't bet him, I probably would hehe. What I meant was that I'm not going to single him in any prep races where the track is fast until I can see him run on it and run solidly, not necessarily win, but run well on it. If he does then he will be the solid favorite in the Derby over UM just because he is more of a distance horse than UM, at least IMO.

I'd have to watch Machen's race, I didn't see it.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Carlos in Cali — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 22:56:02 GMT

Lazmannick

Soldat has never raced on a fast main track. 3 starts: (2)sloppy,(1)muddy with (1)win & (2)2nds.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 04:36:42 GMT

Jayjay

Don't give up on Soldat just yet. His only race on a fst track was won by Wine Police who just might be a crack sprinter in a time less than 1 second off the track record.

Dialed in was really impressive, especially on GP's track. To be honest, that's one track I don't like, especially for deep closers. I want to see him try 9F fast.

Another horse I saw today that has been impressive in both his starts was Machen in the 5th at the Fair Grounds. This guy looks like the real deal. He's 2 for 2, a pair of 5 length victories. It'll be be interesting to see him in a stakes. I'm not sure what they have on his plate at this point, but I like him

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

jayjay — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 03:56:48 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum : Yeah, I like the OP series a lot. I also like betting races at OP in general, there's a lot of money and the payouts are great. I still don't get why they can't fix the speed track at SA. It'd be interesting to see if any east coast horses fly over the rockies for the series, there's really no excuse anymore. The purses are good if not better so the only question now is will they come. Did you see RFO's race ?

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

jayjay — Mon, 31 Jan 2011 01:33:41 GMT

Draynay : BAT would've been swallowed by Dialed In in the Holy Bull. Now there's a horse to watch. BAT would have set the same exact pace as this HB, and he would've folded. I think you can now jump off BAT and wait for Uncle Mo to run in March. Although I'm sure you'll find another horse to jump on before he runs in March LOL...maybe Dialed In ??

Laz : As impressive as Soldat's race last week was, I still don't think he is all dat. Not to say I won't bet him in the Derby because the likelihood of an off track in the Derby is probably 99.9999999%. I don't think I will bet him in his prep races if the track comes up dry/fast. He did look solid in that last race but whether it's him or the other horses didn't care for the off track is still a question in my mind.

Did you see Dialed In's race today ?? Man, that horse can gobble up ground like some great mare I know. :) He was 15 lengths at the start of the race and won by 2 ... easily!

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Carlos in Cali — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 20:24:20 GMT

Keep this in mind: Soldat has never raced on a "fast" dirt track.His 2 prior races on the main track were also on "off" tracks where he finished 2nd both times. To me he's a turf horse who handles off tracks like most turf horses do.We'll see...

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 18:51:33 GMT

jayjay

I know, it does get cold. I'm quite a ways from GG now but used to go a lot. So I assume you go to the fair races at Pleasanton also. I think OP has a very nice series for 3yo on the trail. SA's is good too and has good weather. It's a little fast though.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 18:13:40 GMT

I think that Soldat has an upside that will compete with any of the three year old crop I‘ve seen (going back to last year too). He has finished second in a BC race and even though it was on turf, he proved he has class, which many of these pretenders will end up not having. When he ran lights out last week he showed a number of things. (1) That he can run fast. His 9F was the fastest, by 2 seconds, of three races run at the distance that day. If pushed he could easily have run his 9F in 1.48 and change. His closing furlong of 12.57 un-pushed equates to a 25 second final quarter, not bad for a colt that won’t be officially 2 years old until April. (2) That he can go further than 9F and still be strong when he starts that 10th furlong. (3) Based on his past record he can rate and come off the pace; he can set the pace; and he can go head and head for a good portion of the race and then accelerate away.

I’m not ready to get caught up on his turf and off track preference just yet. True, Wine Police ran away from him in a maiden race last summer at Saratoga, but at the time of that race he was officially 15 months old and Wine Police 17 months old, a big difference at that point in a horse’s career. His only downside will be the same downside that Uncle Mo will have to deal with, his ability to overcome his breeding. His sire, War Front was primarily a sprinter and from what I can see has never sired a big winner out of a 100 or so reported foals. He is the first foal of his dam Le Relais. However, at least he has gone 9F and looked very strong doing it. Uncle Mo now has to show he can get the distance and with authority.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Forbidden Apple — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 17:21:49 GMT

Ranagulzion,

We can now eliminate Boys At Toscanova from the Holy Bull on Sunday. The Draynay curse/flu must have gotten to him early. There is nothing wrong with Mucho Macho Man, he ran a very good race in the Remsen. J. Velazquez was all out and whipping To Honour And Serve to hold off Mucho Macho Man. I really like Dialed In because I believe he has greater potential to move forward and improve leaps and bounds as a 3 year old. Dialed In had a powerful late kick in his last race because he was left behind the field and had no choice but to come from far back. I thought that effort spoke volumes for his talent, I look for him to be much closer to the pace of Black N Beauty on sunday. Thank you for pointing out Mucho Macho Man, I will surely use him underneath Dialed In in the exacta.

Look, I know that Uncle Mo is talented, but you and Draynay don't seem to understand that 2010 is over. Some 2 year olds peak far earlier than others and that is what Mr. Pletcher is very good at, winning early. I like trainers who are in no hurry to pressure their horses into running way to fast at 2 years old. Most of the competitive 3 year olds this year have never raced against Mo and BAT. So when Draynay makes a comment that if Mo can win by 10 at 1 mile, he can slow down and win by 5 at 1 1/4 I have to laugh. You guys act like Mo is the only colt with talent and the only one who has potential to improve. I know that at least you Ranagulzion are smarter than that. You know that with 3 year olds, a star can be born any day of the week at any race track.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

jayjay — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 00:04:08 GMT

Mike Relva : Yeah, especially if BAT wins the HB. LOL

Dr. Drunkinbum : I used to go a lot but it gets cold there being so near the Bay. When I go there, I usually hang out near the paddock as I like to look at the horses. The only thing is I get allergy attacks really badly...the things I will endure for horse racing.

I go to the Pleasanton satellite quite a lot as it's on the way home, I hear this little voice everytime I come up to Bernal exit..."just one bet...or two." It's a really nice facility and pretty clean.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Slew — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 14:21:30 GMT

It seems to me that the last 2 Derbies were run in a swamp. If we see that in May again, Soldat's looking promising. I liked Wilkinson's move on the rail, and I think he's a very gutsy horse, with an instinct for the wire.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Derby doctor — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 05:11:06 GMT

Oh just wait for Soldat. Even if he does not win the Kentucky Derby, this colt will knock out some major stakes this year. Of all the starters in the 2009 Kentucky Derby only two went on to win stakes after the race. Serious horses go for the breeders cup.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Footlick — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 03:36:40 GMT

Billy- I too liked Soldat's race and like the fact that he seems to act on dirt and turf

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Ranagulzion — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 22:49:41 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

How about Mucho Macho Man in the Holy Bull? BAT is a good measuring stick for all the others since he is the proven class horse of the field. If he is not beaten then all others can call it a day, 'cause they'll have no shot at tagging Mo. Mucho Macho Man is a june foal yet very advanced. He's improving all the time and should have the measure of To Honour and Serve next time they hook up. Dialed-in is also getting good and can move forward significantly even if he loses (but shouldn't be blown away).

Mo and Pletcher are going to give you nightmares Pal.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

jayjay — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 21:38:00 GMT

I will continue to "discout" Soldat's performance until he runs on fast track but I'm not stupid. If it rains on Derby Day, he'll be one of the ones in my trifecta and superfecta. It's all tooooooo early to start picking horses. I'm still on THS and Jaycito, but like the others, I'm not stuck on them...well, maybe Jaycito hehe. I think he's a true distance and derby horse but we'll see how he does in the Lewis. I'm going to ride him all the way to the Belmont Stakes, win or lose...just like Draynay will ride BAT all the way to the race after the HB... LOL

I think the top 4 right now are Soldat, THS, Uncle Mo and Tapizar. Here's a poll : What do you think is the best path to the Derby ? For me, Oaklawn route, with the Arkansas Derby as the final prep. I think the worst one is the Gulfstream route, only because I don't like the surface on the GP track, it seems much much more faster than CD, like it's not a true dirt track but I'm sure someone will correct me on that (Billy Joe Bob Jim ?) LOL

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 18:55:56 GMT

Draynay,

So now people should fear Boys At Toscanova because he ran second to the immortal Uncle Shmo? How does it feel to keep eating so much chalk? Boys At Toscanova is a skinny little horse that will be smashed and bashed up by the time the KY Derby rolls along. If Dialed In enters the Holy Bull, it will take a strong performance to hold off his late kick. Black N Beauty appears to be the horse to beat, not Boys At Toscanova. Shadow Warrior should also move forward off from his last race, but he does not seem fast enough to win at 1 mile.

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Billy's Empire — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 15:59:04 GMT

Soldat looked like all Dat and a Bag of Chips! Please continue to discout his performance and blame it on the track conditions. Good horses run on anything. He has shown he can run on turf, dirt, and the slop, had a lot of back class, and should keep moving forward. I know I will have him in the Derby Futures exacta with Brethern, Mo, and tapizar

re: Allowance With Derby Implications?

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 04:16:35 GMT

I like Soldat, one of the classier 3yo but that win in the slop is hard to gauge but I think his form will transfer to dry dirt and he'll do quite well. I still say there was a lot of talent in that race and we'll be hearing from more than a few of them.