Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

jayjay — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 00:01:11 GMT

Draynay : Good for you. I don't play win bets specially on an even money favorites. LOL I hit that trifecta 4 times all because I love the combinations of 10-4-5 :) I didn't even have to read the form, I woke up that day and I said, I'm playing 10 with 4,5 with 4,5. I would've had the trifecta twice if 4 or 5 beat Brethen.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Draynay — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 22:24:25 GMT

jayjay, I put 300 bucks down on Brethren to win at even money. The guy next to me told me I was crazy and there was no value on that bet. He showed me his 54 dollar ticket using 4 horses in front of Brethren in his Tri. When the race was over I collected a little less than even money but was happy to put nearly 600 bucks back in my pocket. The guy with the 54 dollar ticket with all the value left his ticket on the table and I never saw him again. I guess he took all that value home with him.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

LAZMANNICK — Sun, 13 Feb 2011 01:20:53 GMT

Jayjay

He won a cool two grand. That's enough to buy some top quality truth syrum.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

jayjay — Sat, 12 Feb 2011 18:54:27 GMT

Draynay : There's a big difference between cashing tickets and winning. If I have to guess, I bet you cashed tickets that paid $5 (on a heavy favorite) after betting $20 on the race. LOL

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Draynay — Sat, 12 Feb 2011 00:03:25 GMT

Keeneland? Yes it's true it was a bit chalky that day but I was cashing tickets!

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Tom F V — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 20:10:37 GMT

Hmmm, not what I heard from someone around you at Keeneland.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

draynay — Fri, 11 Feb 2011 17:37:52 GMT

Tom, ask Jason if the win tickets at 13 to 1 and 11 to 1 and 6 to 1 were chalk tickets. I won 2k with Jason standing right next to me. Go Paco !

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Tom F V — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 04:07:49 GMT

REALLY? Now that is about the funniest thing I've heard in quite a long time. You are oblivious as to who or what I might know.

Are you always this delusional?

a expert or an expert?

Sorry but it doesn't take an expert to bet the favorite. If you don't want people knowing your true betting habits be careful who you hang out with, they may know real people and expose your dirty laundry- he wins but he always bets the favorite. :)

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Draynay — Thu, 10 Feb 2011 00:07:46 GMT

Tom F V, don't ever challenge a expert. My knowledge is vast and far superior to anything you have ever seen.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

2:24 — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 15:51:33 GMT

Footlick - agree completely with your last post.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Mike Relva — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 15:47:42 GMT

STEVEBISCUIT

Good points,some can't handle the truth when living in "neverland". lol

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Footlick — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 04:24:38 GMT

My problem with the two preps is that those horses never make it through the Triple Crown. At least Street Sense did well in the Fall, but it didn't do Super Saver any good, and Big Brown was never the same either. I still say a horse needs a legitimate foundation at two. But that's just my opinion. Street Sense at least had 5 races at two.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Tom F V — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 02:12:50 GMT

"Those horses you listed won the Derby because that schedule allowed them to peak at the right time, stevebiscuit 08 Feb 2011 2:17 PM"

That exact scenario is what has me a little worried about Mo.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Tom F V — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 02:09:03 GMT

Well Draynay, since I have it on good authority that you bet the favorite every time I'd say your handicapping skills might be in question as well. :)

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

stevebiscuit — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 01:11:05 GMT

Draynay, if beating a filly who's moments away from breaking down is impressive, then anything is. Eight Belles was a nice filly, but she certainly wasn't great. Barbaro's Derby was great because it was against a very strong Derby field. Big Brown beat nothing. The only good dirt horse was Colonel John, the rest were sprinters and turf horses.

It's kinda funny seeing you try to be condescending, especially since you're wrong all the time. When people prove you wrong you duck their comments. What's the matter? Can't you handle the truth?

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Draynay — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 22:15:56 GMT

Stevebiscuit, I would just stop because with every word you type you proof just how little you really know. Fact is Big Brown from the 20 hole going 4 wide all the way around winning by 5 over Eight Belles is one of the all time best Derby performances like it or not. Billy's Empire, Lol. The fact that you like a slow mover like Tapizar tells me all I need to know about your handicapping skills.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

stevebiscuit — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 19:17:20 GMT

Billy, don't you think other horses that fit the same criteria have lost the Derby? Those horses you listed won the Derby because that schedule allowed them to peak at the right time, but that doesn't mean that it's the key to the race. I wouldn't have been surprised if Pletcher used his typical blanket approach when training his horses. Don't forget that Pletcher has one of the worst records in Derby history and it wasn't until just last year that he got lucky that Calvin was riding his horse, along with the slop and Lookin At Lucky's poor post position. It seems that the stars need to align for Pletcher to win, even when he has 3 or 4 more horses than everyone else.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

jayjay — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 18:01:30 GMT

Billy Billy Billy : Umm, yeah sure, I totally believed what you said in your last post... I mean totally. And besides, what made you think I was assuming you were talking about UM ? Maybe I was telling you to bet the farm on UM based on your keen respect for Draynay's words and picks lol. Draynay seems to think that UM will roll on by his preps and go to the Derby undefeated, so even if I was assuming, it would've been a pretty safe assumption.

I have to give you credit though, at least in the sense that there's no sure thing in the Derby, you're able to differ with Draynay's opinion. LOL

Someone asked about Graded earnings list before and I told them about The Downey Profile page, looks like they already have the list of graded earnings (so far). They also have a good list of their top choices (they call them the "Looking Good" group). Not sure if Jason will allow this link but I'll try anyway :

thedowneyprofile.com

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Billy's Empire — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 14:27:02 GMT

Jayjay, newsflash buddy. I could care less what Dray says. I can form my own opinions on horses unlike some on this blog who are always following the rest of the pack. You keep wathcing your post parades and not handicapping the races, and I will worry about myself. Second, only a fool "bets the house" on a low priced favorite in the Derby. If I am going to spend money on Derby day, it is going to be on exotics, b/c they pay. The average exacta is over $200 and the average tri over $1200. Pick 3's and pick 4's also pay quite nicely on Derby day.

My statement above was just pointing out that 2 undefeated colts went into the Derby at nice odds and dominated the race. Will it happen again, maybe, but we will not know until May 7th. It could be Mo, Dialed In, Brethern, etc. I did not ever reference UM in my post, but thanks for assuming that is who I was referenceing. He is not even on the top of my Derby list.

Stevebiscuit. Pletcher used that same "weak Schedule" last year with Super Saver and won the Derby, same with Big Browns "weak Schedule" and Street Sense Weak schedule, and Mine That Bird's weak schedule. Maybe he will get the distance, maybe he won't, but one thing is for sure, he likes the track at CD. So does TAPIZAR

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

stevebiscuit — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 01:00:34 GMT

Draynay, the only true mile and a quarter grade 1 dirt horse you mentioned was Colonel John, and he got fanned 12 wide going into the stretch. The rest you mentioned, were either sprinters, turf horses, grade 3 horses or just plain overrated. If you actually read the comments on this blog you'll see that I'm not the only one who believes that the 2008 3 year old crop was weak. Had Big Brown been running in 2006 or 2007 he wouldn't have stood a chance.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Mike Relva — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 23:53:50 GMT

BILLY'S EMPIRE

Yes,I lost. Perhaps should start listening to you...not! BTW would be great if you could figure out how to spell my name correctly,if it didn't prove too stressful. lol

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Householder — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 18:27:39 GMT

Indian Charlie entered the Kentucky Derby undefeated and was the favorite at 2.70-1. He had 3 preps at 7 furlongs, 1 mile, and the 1 1/8th Santa Anita Derby a race Real Quiet also participated in.

Kentucky Derby Chart.

"Indian Charlie held on well to the final furlong and weakened."

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

jayjay — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 18:18:22 GMT

Billy Billy BIlly : I hope you bet the farm on UM on Derby day. I know you treat Draynay's words as gospel lol. You would have to bet the farm on him to make any money at all lol.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

draynay — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 17:26:38 GMT

stevebiscuit, you have no idea what you are talking about. Big Brown won from the 20 post beating horse like Tale of Ekati, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Smooth Air, Visionaire, Gayego, Colonel John and Eight Belles. That is not a weak field in anyones mind but your own. Last year the field was much much weaker.

re: Santiva: Easy Pickin's for Sharp Eyes

Billy's Empire — Mon, 07 Feb 2011 15:17:20 GMT

Blocked, you were right on the money with Square Eddie. Still got the tri with the other 3, but did not pay that well.

How did Fly Down and Turbulent Descent work out for you Chalk Revla?