Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Johnny — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 17:28:11 GMT

Draynay, we're just guessing at the connections' motivation for putting Eight Belles in the Derby. Rememeber, fillies have won this race before, not that often of course, but that's probably because in our country the females just don't get much opportunity to run with the males. In other countries, it's my understanding that females run with males quite often and are very competitive.

The times for the California horses may be misleading because of the synthetics. We won't know until May 3rd.

With regard to some of the others, Pyro will return to his form after bouncing on Poly. War Pass got some bottom from the Wood. Recapturetheglory may live up to his name. Court Vision will try his hardest to beat you. That's just to mention a few. There may be a party crasher in the mix as well. Lots of thing can happen in this race, so don't count any horse out of it.

As far as Big Brown is concerned, he looks like a pretty good horse as well.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

draynay — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:19:16 GMT

Johnny... the fact that the owner of eight belles may run in the derby...what does that tell you? Do you think he would have even thought about it last year if she had to run against Curlin, Hard Spun, and Street Sense ??? Big Brown is the only horse he sees as a real threat... the rest he thinks he can beat! Most of these so called Derby preps looked nothing like the Derby... most were run in very slow splits except the Florida Derby. Consider this no three year old has run a mile as fast as Big Brown as a 2 year old....

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Matthew W — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 06:17:47 GMT

the filly won't hit the board, 'still think they'll run a good Beyer---namely Big Brown/Colonel John. Just can't throw out poly-horses as they won in Arkansas in derby/handicap, and Pyro's race is a throw out, I still consider him a player on the Derby stage....

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Johnny — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 02:33:06 GMT

It's not a definite thing that Eight Belles is running in the Derby; however, the trainer feels she belongs and I have to trust him and the owner to do what's best for their horse. I know it's easy to get Derby fever, but she's a very talented filly.

I'm not saying that just because a filly is good that she should run in the Derby, but then I don't think that just because a colt is good that he's necessarily suited for the race either.

Obviously the horse's best interest and well being come first; and as long as these do, then if the filly is good enough, she deserves her shot.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

wilson — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 02:30:26 GMT

man it would suck to have Eight Belles in the Oaks future wager only to lose this way...but it doesn't look like anyone played the Oaks future wager anyway...

Speed figures matter and Z Fortune ran big enough off of a bad prior race that he is due for one more improvement with the added Derby distance. I love the Big Brown/Z Fortune exacta.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

draynay — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 01:03:13 GMT

She belongs with most of these average horses but I still believe it is a big mistake. Rags to Riches was ruined when she ran in the Belmont. Yes she beat a tired Curlin but she NEVER won another race...and Curlin went on to do ok huh... the Belmont was just too much. Take the glory of winning the Oaks why run for 4th or 5th place in the Derby?

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Johnny — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 00:48:41 GMT

Jason, I liked reading your list. I also think this Derby is more wide open than some people may realize. I agree with you, that with Eight Belles possibly coming, it's going to be a great party.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Jason Shandler — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 23:44:36 GMT

Johnny: That's why I put her in my top 7. I had info that Larry was going to enter her. She certainly belongs with the boys, and it will spice up an already intriguing Triple Crown season.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Johnny — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 23:40:17 GMT

I just read on this same site that Eight Belles is still possible for the KY Derby. If she does go, then after War Pass, I'll be rooting for her!

Hope everybody reads the story.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Johnny — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 23:12:19 GMT

Slew.em.All, there's a news release on the Bloodhorse site about Adriano. It appears he's likely to go, but not a done-deal just yet.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Slew.em.All — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 14:38:47 GMT

Correction draynay: chasing "lone uncontested" speed,big difference.I still think Pyro is going to run Big in the Derby.He's way better than what he showed.He just didn't like the surface at Keeneland,thats all!But he sure Loves Churchill's....Does anyone know if Adriano is pursuing the Derby?..

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Johnny — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 03:24:13 GMT

No, Draynay, Pyro is not my Derby horse. I think I made it clear long ago which horse that is. But I respect Pyro, as I do any opponent.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

draynay — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 00:36:54 GMT

Johnny who do you think deserves ANY credit? War Pass? Pyro? Col John, who has never even run on dirt? Who? Big Brown is not running against history he is running against some very average horses, with VERY average Beyers. The splits in the Derby will be quicker and more like the Florida Derby. Many of these average horses will spit the bit long before the stretch and those closers will be 15 to 20 lengths behind with too much to do... Pyro should know that was his life as a 2 year old ...chasing speed he couldn't catch up to. So Pyro's last 3 race Beyer's are 93,95,and 84 and this is your Derby horse? Sometimes you have to come to grips with the fact you can't beat the favorite.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

mg — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 19:21:05 GMT

After reviewing some very insightful comments it would be wise for all to await the outcome of both the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby before locking in those May 3rd bets. As all horsemen know 3yr.olds at this stage can improve very quickly. However, at this point just a few quick observations on the reigning top three:

PYRO - has been brought up to this stage perfectly with a sound foundation under him and the proven ability to rate anywhere the race dictates, as witnessed in his last start, or close with a very nice kick. His experience and tactical ability certainly will be a force to be reckoned with on Derby day.

COLONEL JOHN - Nice horse with all the breeding to get the mile and a quarter, great connections and going in the right direction. Don't understand how anyone could knock his last effort.

BIG BROWN - A word of caution before crowning this boy a superstar. Outside of his Florida Derby over a mediocre field he has had one maiden win and a condition win over non winner's of one other than.In addition to being plagued with foot problems he's light on experience - the same knock that was placed on Curlin prior to last years Derby. He may prove to be that talented but at a short price he's a big risk.

Good luck to all and keep those opinions coming, after all that as they say is what makes horse racing.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Johnny — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 15:48:50 GMT

I am getting sick and tired about hearing how great Big Brown is and how weak the rest of the field is. I've always been intrigued with Big Brown myself, but if you keep putting this horse on a pedestal that he hasn't earned yet, it's going to make me hope he gets his butt kicked in the Derby, something I don't really want to see happen.

You are using three races to overestimate this horse and underestimate the others; even with the Florida Derby win, which was certainly a very impressive performance, that is still no guarantee he'll repeat that in the KY Derby.

All the horses have a shot. All of them that are entered got here because they did something right. Give some credit where credit is due.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

draynay — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 13:36:13 GMT

You guys have got to be kidding... Col John's Beyer was bias ??? This horse has NEVER run on dirt...Never!!! His first time will be in the Derby and you think he has a chance because he barely caught two tiring front runners???

Pyro is your horse? He has never caught a speed horse and has yet to see one as a 3 year old. When he gets a look at it again in Kentucky he is going to be 10 lengths back at the top of the stretch or more and you think he will run down Big Brown? He couldn't run down War Pass and had 3 tries to do it. What other average horse do you have...? Any other horse you mention does not deserve to be you are looking at a very average crop this year. Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Curlin would have punished all these horses other than Big Brown.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Johnny — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 03:42:56 GMT

I don't know that much about Beyers because I'm not a handicapper. However, if I did handicap, I would study very hard, read the Form, listen to the experts, keep up on the news, and consider a whole battery of tools and factors, including Beyers, workout and race patterns, equipment changes, pedigree, and so on. The more resources you have at your disposal, the more able you'll be to make an informed decision on a horse. And even then, with all the information you have, and no matter how smoothly things have been going, and how good the horse has performed, there is never any guarantee that it will stay that way. The equine athlete is powerful, but also very fragile, and something can go wrong at any time.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Matthew W — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 03:06:50 GMT

Pyro and Col John have had similar preps---both will have to run much better to get the roses and I think they both will---Col John lost position on the SA Derby far turn---no way he can do that and have any chance in the Derby....but Pyro and John have prepped right---they already had the graden earnings and thus were allowed to take back and finish---Big Brown had to engage from the get go--making him BEHIND--those two---maybe the best horse, but behind nonetheless, on seasoning....the thinking here is Pyro and John will be closer in the Derby and move earlier---would've loved to see Georgie boy cuz I thought he was better than John, but this years Derby is shaping out as a GOOD one: hmm, Mr Tagg has TWO nice ones, there's this Tiznow look alike out West, War Pass is all class, The Big A has Pyro, here comes the Ark Derby and Bluegrass---all is well, keep fingers crossed, and, oh--yeah......there's that big striding brown horse--that...Big...Brown.........and absolutely Beyers matter---I just think the polytracks are harder to judge---especially this years' Santa Anita meeting---that was a startling move in the SA stretch by a horse that should relish 1 1/4----I'll take the likely 8-1, he's paid well all year---otherwise, I'm right there with Beyer---you'll see him in the stretch---his stride is like Tiznow but he has a little Alysheba in him.....

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

star chaser — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 03:05:01 GMT

Beyers and speed numbers????

Colonel John ran the last 3/8's in 35 1/5. I don't know what race Andy Beyer was watching. He has declared his distain for synthetic surfaces and his bias is apparent in his numbers. Add between 7 and 10 points and you will have an equivalent to his dirt numbers.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Slew.em.All — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 01:57:01 GMT

Big Brown is Exactly the same as War Pass,and we know what happened when he didn't have it his way...He QUIT!..BB is going to run into ALOT of different/new situations in the Derby...I've seen way too many good looking prep wins by these type of horseflesh,only to see them Crumble like Blue-cheese in the lane.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

draynay — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 00:33:56 GMT

Pyro is right where he belongs ... with a bunch of three year olds who can't break 100...lol... some can't break 90. Another slow race coming up with a mad dash in the stretch.... not exactly what he will or any other horse will see in the Derby. Beyers don't matter? Well you take the one who can't break 95 this year and I will take the one who averages around 105.... we'll see who wins.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Slew.em.All — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 22:52:40 GMT

Beyers,beyers,beyers,..Draynay: why aren't you touting Recapturetheglory? He got a 100+ for his last too!,and there's NO WAY he's better than Pyro!..Pyro has ONLY ran the last 1/4 in Both of his races this year.If the splits were any faster,he'd have higher beyers,thats not His fault! And he still closes like a Freight-Train into Slow splits!..Imagine if they go faster up-front?.And he's "asked" to Go earlier than usual?..Me thinks he'd win by the length of the stretch! He IS the Fastest Horse down the lane,without a doubt...Mess with Pyro,and you Shall get Burned!

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

draynay — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 18:40:41 GMT

Antman... come on... we all know strange things CAN happen...my point is simple Big Brown has GREAT early speed and jumps quickly out of the gate.. check all his races...

And yes I am aware that he ran 100+ as a two year old... I am also aware that he lost THREE times to War Pass and War Pass is no Big Brown at this stage so get use to looking at Big Browns backside its all Pyro is ever going to see. One last thing...look who is running in the Bluegrass... a bunch of horses who have barely broken 90 Beyers as a matter of fact no horse in the field has broken 95 more than once as a three year old... and they are suppose to run with a horse posting 105 on dirt like its nothing??? Come on...

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Rivercitysmitty — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 16:03:35 GMT

I agree with Jim Gray in that King`s Silver Son will be the new horse we`ll be talking about after this weekend. Sure, he`s only won one race, but he`s had traffic problems in most of his races. I don`t bet front runners in the Ky Dby. I`d love to see a Top Avenger or Groovy type pace where the opening 3/4`s goes in 45 and change. I look at Beyers numbers, but I don`t put too much stock in them any more due to the poly surfaces varying so much. Didn`t Recapturetheglory get the top number last week? I`m looking for another weirdly run BG Saturday with maybe Miner`s Claim pulling off an upset.

re: Derby Thoughts - With One Month To Go

Antman — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 15:39:14 GMT

Good luck on BB. You are set and that is cool. Johnny said it best. There are 18 other horses in there and anything can happen. First time BB gets bumped or tangled out of the gate or gets post 20, then is he going to be 15 lengths ahead. Wish I was your friend, I would take all the money you would like on BB VS Pyro or even just your win bet. Anyhow good luck that is what this is for good speculation and opinions. We all differ. Pyro did run to beyers over a 100 as a 2 year old. Just in cast you forgot.