Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

jayjay — Mon, 07 Mar 2011 19:40:08 GMT

Jason : When it comes to being a seasoned bettor, the honor is all yours lol. I consider myself a smart bettor, I don't keep track how "seasoned" a bettor is, bottom line, you still have to hit the winners and I have last year, quite more than you :)

If you really are a smart and seasoned bettor and you think UM is a lock for the derby, that no one can come close, a sure WIN, then why not take $100?? You're not risking anything, nothing at all since you already know that UM will win the Derby.

Here's the fact, not one of your three (Jason, The Bid and Draynay )would take the bet because not one of you really believe he's a lock.

You keep using the odds as an excuse because you know damn well that UM is not a lock, otherwise you'd take $100 without even thinking about it. Do you get it now ?? Mr. "seasoned" bettor ?

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

MonicaV — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 19:48:22 GMT

Draynay,

Why so sure the Santa Anita Derby winner will get trounced in the Derby? As I recall, Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer in the Derby after winning the SA Derby.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Footlick — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 01:21:42 GMT

C'mon Jason- we all know a football teaser is someone in the locker room to get the players excite before the game........

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Jason Shandler — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 18:37:56 GMT

The Bid: Jayjay still doesnt get it. Not surprising since he didnt know how a football teaser works. The guy is just not a seasoned bettor. Let me clue you in Jayjay: The key to ALL bets are the ODDS one gets when placing a wager. Why in the world would someone take even-money odds from you when they can go to Twinspires.com and get 7-2 on the future book? It's not about ego dude, its about putting as much money in your pocket as you can. A lesson Im sure you learned well when I took your $100 last time :)

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

jayjay — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 18:28:45 GMT

Just like Jason, you're going off on the odds. What's the deal with that ? It's not like I'm making you work hard for this bet. It's a straight bet and you win $100, without even worrying about the odds?? If he wins the Derby, you get $100, if he loses, you lose $100? How complicated is that ?

You're touting this horse as a shoe in for the Derby, like he'll never get beaten, like he's a superhorse, and yet you wont' take my free $100 ?? Who cares what his odds will be in the Derby ? Are you worried he will lose the Derby and you'll have to pay me $100 ? If you're not sure that he'll win the Derby, just say so. :)

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

The Bid — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 03:32:48 GMT

Came Home...Did he ever make it??...Harlan's Holiday is having His holiday @ stud...Brother Derek is NO Bo Derek...Pioneer of The Nile is enabling the people of Egypt in their transition...Just to name a few of the TRIED and just ain't got IT when WE post on the RIGHT coast!!! Point Given, Silver Charm, Real Quiet are really the exceptions in the last 15-20 yrs. to do anything Relevant on the east coast before July!!!

Jay-Jay: I'm not going ANYwhere win or place!!! WHY would I bet you 1-19?????? I would take your bet only if you give me odds OR Mo v. your top 3!!! The point regarding Mar. 13 in The Writer...Mo debuts in dazzling fashion BUT...I hope no one will fill that race, because I can envision it now...MO Sizzles and beats NO ONE!!!! I want Him to HAVE to debut in Tampa so He can TROUNCE the beloved SNOT out of Brethren, and when He does, make people REALIZE what they have in-store come THIS Spring!!!Zito is quaking in his boots dodging THS...and He has to wait His turn 'till The Real Horse is full!!! Mo won't disappoint... He'll only make YOU want to watch HIM again and again and again...Just like HE did when He was 2yrs. old!!!

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

CTG — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 23:54:51 GMT

KD Future bet not a good value wager...period.

At least that is my belief. Several factors influence my view:

2009 I had I want Revenge to WIN in KD Future Pool 1/2/3 and then come up empty upon Derby Day scratch.

2010 I have multiple exacta combo in KD 1/2/3 with Eskendreya on top of some solid contenders. Also have Rule on top of these same contenders...one of those was Super Saver. Rule scratched out a week ahead of derby; a few days later Eskendreya scratched.

2005 I have Giacomo to WIN in KD Future Pool 1/2/3 (26:1/25:1/50:1). Sure Giacomo wins derby but could've waited until derby day to wager and get 50 to 1.

Simply put KD Future wager does not get any of my $$$$ this year.

Risk to Reward is no value.

Excuse me in advance for my rambling. Good Luck for those that do wager.

CTG

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Draynay — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 20:59:45 GMT

Geez. You are all such rookies. The Factor is not a Derby horse get over it. Have your Santa Anita Derby and watch the winner of that race get trounced again in the Derby. Unreal.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

tcc — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 20:44:49 GMT

LAZMANNICK;

Draynay all over To Honor and Serve ,also Boys at Tosconova and now it's Uncle Mo. Big Time!

Last year it Dublin, Don't Blame the Cat,Noble's Promise. At least those three.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

LAZMANNICK — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 18:59:58 GMT

jayjay

I might be wrong, but wasn't Draynay all over To Honor and Serve early last fall and knocking Uncle Mo?

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 18:30:34 GMT

My mistake, Sway Away is not a maiden. Does anyone have a link to his maiden race at Pleasanton?

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Sunny Lee — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 17:13:17 GMT

No horse has to "make up" any number of lengths on Mo - they all go from the same starting gate.

I do believe Mo WILL get the 10 furlongs though - in about 2:09.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Mike Relva — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 15:38:14 GMT

JAYJAY

Your comments regarding Dray is exactly correct,he doesn't have enough to fill up his day.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 15:36:46 GMT

Draynay,

You better pray for The Factor to run awful in the Sunland Derby. If he wins that race I am guessing that Baffert will send him into the KY Derby. And if he enters the gate against Uncle Shmo, he will run Shmo into the ground down the backstretch. Shmo might have been a fast 2 year old, but The Factor is the fastest 3 y.o. horse on the Triple Crown trail.

Dialed In did defeat Mucho Macho Man who is much better than Mountain Town and Boys @ Tosconova. Dialed In is going to make you cry when he beats your superhorse/wanna be Triple Crown winner. Zito is clearly aiming for the FL Derby with Dialed In. After the Timely Useless race, Shmo better pack his bags and get out of town before the new sheriff finds him.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

jayjay — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 09:31:10 GMT

The Bid : March 12th is indeed just around the corner, but what's your point ? What will that race "answer" ? I'm curious as to why you think this next race will "silence" the folks (like me) who questions his "greatness" at this moment. Dominating 2 yr olds does not translate to a great 3 yr old. Don't do a Draynay with his QR HOTY stuff last year. How about let's see him race as a 3 yr old first.

BUT...if you can't wait until after he runs, then I'll bet you $100.00 that he doesn't win the Kentucky Derby. It's free money that Jason won't take from me (I'm sure he'll mention his $100 again in response to this post lol), I'm sure you'lll be more than willing. :) I don't mind losing $100.00 to you if UM turns out to be a monster. I just hope you don't run away if you lose...

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

jayjay — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 08:58:23 GMT

Draynay just likes to ride the more popular horse because he doesn't have to think about it. He picked UM just like he touted RA at the beginning of last year then forgot about her mid year and jumped on QR mid to late last year. And don't forget First Dude, he calls the horse a maiden winner until Jason picked him as his longshot for the Preakness, after the race, Draynay was all over the horse like FD was the 2nd coming of Ghostzapper, then later in the year, he went back to calling him a maiden wiiner LOL. Has he talked about any of the 3 since ? No.

I'm still wondering what the color of the sky is in his world, anyone know ?

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Sunny Lee — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 03:05:36 GMT

War Pass (God rest his soul) is going to be in the news again this spring once Uncle Mo loses his KD preps.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

LAZMANNICK — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 01:32:30 GMT

tcc

I forgot to mention Bind is the back up. I'm waiting for Dray to burst on the scene and inform us about how great this horse is, as if no one heard of him until he tolds us.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Quiet American 55 — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 00:55:35 GMT

I just have to weigh-in here on some of these comments. Jason, I think you are right on with the R-Star comments. That race has not held form in the past. The new cycle and dates down there also make the LA Derby suspect for producing May 7 form. Horses like Grindstone & Funny Cide used to LA Derby when it was a different date and distance. The comments about Silver Charm, above. I won on him. He was a router and a grinder. Baffert ran him in the distances he could in CA according to the timeline of that horse. I believe stopping on him around the Del Mar meet that prior Summer. Draynay, what's up with the need for the Grade 1 win, to win the Derby. You displace about half or more than half of the last ten winners with that requirement. Mo looks exceptional to me as well, but to project his form forward of a his Beyer in the JUV or any other 2 year old route for that matter, sometimes that just not come to be. (I'm with you on him being really really good. Making up the lengths 10 or 15 as you say, that happens regularly from year to year with the 2 year olds to 3 year olds.) Since I'm throwing my hat into the ring here. I have been locked on three and will follow them, hopefully with great enthusiasm (Sway Away, Elite Alex and Break Up The Game -- and i know BUTG still has to break his maiden and I know it's conservative trainer Shug, but...) Jason, as always, really good stuff in your blog.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

stevebiscuit — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 22:38:04 GMT

Draynay, you say The Factor isn't Triple Crown quality because he's been running in sprints. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't another Baffert trainee by the name of Silver Charm run exclusively in sprints in his first 4 starts with the 4th being the San Vincente? And didn't another Baffert trainee named Real Quiet run no further than 7 furlongs in his first 5 starts? Underestimate Baffert at your own risk, he's the best Triple Crown trainer in the nation, hands down.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Draynay — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 20:44:09 GMT

The Factor is no Factor in any Triple Crown race so he is not worth talking about. Dialed In beat nothing and Brethren won at Tampa against nothing but may be the 2nd best horse out there. We have seen all the horses that will be in the Derby and none come close to Mo. Brethren will get beat in the Derby and come back in the Belmont where I am sure he will be tough. As long as Mo stays healthy he is your Triple Crown winner.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

tcc — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 19:19:56 GMT

Just a thought. You never know how Mo is going to tun out but at least now Draynay has a backup.

LAZMANNICK 22 Feb 2011 12:36 PM

He will probably have 10 more horses as backup's. Plus he has Calvin B. as a backup if he is not riding one of his 10 backup horses.

That leaves a total as much as (11).

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

LAZMANNICK — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 17:36:05 GMT

Just a thought. You never know how Mo is going to tun out but at least now Draynay has a backup.

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 16:26:58 GMT

Coldfacts,

Some of the other bloggers don't give you repect because you have posed questions about another Pletcher runner. They seem to think that Uncle Mo is a Triple Crown winner before he even makes a start at three. As I learned on another blog recently, do not question Pletcher or his horses, he is racings golden boy and his horses are all champions. If you disrespect him, you will be labled a liar and bad for horse racing.

Your horse Riveting Reason ran a great race and seemed to lose by a nose because Anthony's Cross simply has a longer neck and bigger head. I agree with your comments on the KY Derby future bet, some of the horses listed were laughable. Your mention of Sway Away last week made me pay attention to him in the San Vicente. What physical problems did he have since last year? If he can stretch out around two turns, he will be very scary in the Santa Anita Derby. With his head so high in the air, freakish burst of speed, and his massive stride, I have him right up there with Dialed In. I only wish that Zito would have chosen to run in the F.O.Y. instead of waiting for the FL Derby with Dialed In. Another horse that I like alot is Break Up The Game, he is also a maiden like Sway Away. I thank you again for all of your time consuming research in the pursuit of value and talent. It's just to easy to sit back and assume that Mo is unbeatable and accept 1-9 on him.

Ranagulzion,

If I remember correctly you were very high on Eskenedereya last year, not Super Saver. Mo is far from a lock, we all know he has talent, but the word lock is extreme confidence. I Want Revenge, The Pamplemousse, Quality Road, Eskendereya, and Endorsement all had KY Derby dreams that were not met. Do you have a backup horse in mind if Mo is not the unbeatable champion that you claim him to be?

Draynay,

I have watched the replay of the San Vicente many times and I can not see The Factor struggling at all. He is faster than your beloved Mo, accept it and keep and open mind for once. Why are Curchill, Saratoga, and Belmont the only race tracks that exist in your mind? Last year's B.C. Juvenile did not contain the competition that Mo will be faced with this year. Riveting Reason and Jaycito seem like the only two out of that race that will be competitive this year. When are you going to accept the fact that Mo is not the only colt with talent?

re: Poll: Any Value in Derby Future Wager?

2:24 — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 11:24:54 GMT

Amen Footlick.