Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

jayjay — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 19:16:04 GMT

Also, I find it funny that out of all the posts I made, you picked on the "6/5" comment. Was that the only thing you found that you can use to call me yet again someone who doesn't know about horse racing ?? LOL You're getting desperate my friend. At least you're persistent :)

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

jayjay — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 19:10:53 GMT

Jason : Are you sure it can't happen ?? The way your boy is talking, he would be running at 1/9. It goes to show your lack of knowledge about horse racing, anything can happen. You write about horse racing stuff other than blogging right ??

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Footlick — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 15:10:27 GMT

Billy- I agree with closers getting behind a wall of horses ala Little Current, but sometimes the field parts like the Red Sea ala Sea Hero. I believe horses who are mid-field stalkers are at an advantage though. I think Dialed In will need some luck in the Derby, but so will alot of others.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Footlick — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 15:01:45 GMT

The Bid- two turns vs. one turn. They didn't want another one turn race and they wanted to give the horse a little more time, so the FOY was too soon. If they had 3 races or more before the Derby, then the mile would be the next logical step, but they have two races and since he needs two turn experience they are giving it to him. It really isn't hard to understand and there is no need to make some drama out of it. Both Mr Pletcher and Mr Zito have their plans to get their horses to the Derby.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

LAZMANNICK — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 06:41:08 GMT

The Bid

Uncle Mo could have scratched from the Timely Writer and taken on Dialed In in the two turn allowance. Seriously, it would probably be a much better race for him. I don't think Zito's dodging. He wants the 9F distance.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Mike Relva — Sun, 06 Mar 2011 03:13:01 GMT

THE BID

Don't go there regarding the race Dialed In is running tomorrow. What about the race Mo is entered in? Please.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Mike Relva — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 19:45:58 GMT

DRAYNAY

Again,you live in a FANTASY WORLD. To slam Lava Man is a horse that ran his eyeballs out. You don't realize how "off point" you are. I'm glad you don't own or train.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 18:04:25 GMT

Keep telling yourself that Dialed In is not that good. You are completely blinded by all of the chalk you eat and your Pletcher blinkers. Dialed In will prove that he can get 1 1/8 miles and two turns tomorrow. Dialed In is second to none, he is the best three year old colt in the land! Mucho Mach Man wants nothing to do with him again and is opting for the LA Derby. We might also see Soldat skip out of town and race in the Bluegrass.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

The Bid — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 17:57:09 GMT

RELVA...

SO WHAT!!!!!!!! The Holy Bull has turned out to be LEGIT...I'll give that to ya...BUT, an ALLOWANCE...Wake Up!!! Zito is running SCARED!!!When dialed in wins convincing...I don't want to hear that MO's win in The Writer is any less significant...Let's just compare the numbers MO WILL run to what dialed in ran @ the same distance a week from now!!!

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Jason Shandler — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 05:20:11 GMT

Jayjay: You again show that you dont understand betting. No horse in a 19 or 20-horse field is going to be 6-5. Cant happen.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

jayjay — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 05:15:07 GMT

Draynay's Billy : So you're telling me without a doubt that UM is the SAME exact horse that won the BCJ ? If you pay attention, a lot of the folks not jumping on UM right now, including me, wants to see a race first. No one is denying that UM was the best 2 yr old last year. If you can guarantee that he will be the same power horse he was last year, then I'll bet the farm. Can you GUARANTEE IT ?? I didn't think so.

I said before, if he wins the Derby, I will be rooting for him to win the TC. Until then, my money will be on another horse not named UM for the Derby. He can beat me with his 6/5 odds in the Derby, I don't mind.

It's no surprise that you're riding Draynay's back and basing UM's win in the Derby from his form last year. If he's that good that he only needs one prep for the Derby then good for Mike Repole, he will deserve that win for the way his team prepared UM. I'll have to put my money on someone else and stick with historical facts when it comes to prepping for the race.

I have Jaycito, Dialed In, Soldat and THAS as my top derby horses right now. Is there a chance that will change come Derby time, you better believe it. I'm not dumb that I will stick to a horse and bet money on a horse that I don't think has a chance come the 1st week of May.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

stevebiscuit — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 05:00:58 GMT

Draynay, Tiznow wasn't the horse from California that could give the east coasters a run for their money. Since 1990 about 69 horses from California took home eclipse awards, 8 of them being Horse of the Year, 5 Older males, 12 older females, 6 three year old males, 5 three year old females, 9 Sprinters, 7 Turf Horses, 9 two year old males and 8 two year old females.

Live in denial all you want but California horses are far better than you say they are. California also has the deepest jockey and trainer colony in the world. Also, they've got the best older horse in the nation, Twirling Candy, as well as the best 3 year olds fillies, Zazu or Turbulent Descent. Jaycito will be a huge factor in this year's Triple Crown.

I know it's hard to accept but just because California has had the best horse in the nation for the past 4 years doesn't mean you shouldn't give them credit for it.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Mike Relva — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 04:04:56 GMT

SLYDER

Great to see you,too. Somethings never change,right?

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Mike Relva — Sat, 05 Mar 2011 03:03:06 GMT

THE BID

At least Dialed In has already run a race this yr.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Ranagulzion — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 23:43:04 GMT

Draynay,

You are dead wrong about Dialed-In. He's the second best 3YO colt right now and still improving. Remember that in terms of Beyer speed it is more difficult to judge an out and out closer. This colt has a similar type of explosiveness to 2001 Derby winner Monarchos but with more powerful strides, and with speedballs Flashpoint and The Factor entering the Derby picture, he could get a similar type of pace set-up. I'm convinced that he can run up a very high Beyer figure if necessary, to be Uncle Mo's biggest threat. The other growing danger is Mucho Macho Man. If he breaks out in the Louisiana Derby his bandwaggon is going to full overnight. This colt can be any kind of horse ...possibly a "Point Given" type that gets stronger with going longer. Lets watch and see.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Mike Relva — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 23:22:33 GMT

JayJay

Jaycito is a very good horse.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Mike Relva — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 23:20:51 GMT

Horses winning this weekend.....Dialed In,TC,Jacito

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

slyder — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 22:50:49 GMT

slyders back and I see draynay is still spewing drivel out of both sides of his mouth depending on the color of the sky in his mind that day. Some things never change. Guess he figured out you can't be wrong everytime if you say one thing today and the opposite tomorrow. Good to see Relva, Laz, Jayjay, and others with some real logic are still here. All that is missing is Greg J who could make a living outclassing draynay in handicapping anyday.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

The Bid — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 22:38:21 GMT

Dialed In.......Starting a 2 turn ALLOWANCE?????????HMMMMMMMMMMM....

No one takes exception to this TOTAL DODGE by Zito?? Funny....MO gets all the "negative" press regarding a "MADE up public workout prep race" and dialed in enters an ALLOWANCE race...AND he's supposed to be 2nd or 3rd rated colt on The Trail??? Whatever....March 12th can not get here soon enough!!!!!!!!!!!! THE MEN from UNCLE will be out in FULL-FORCE!!!!!!!

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

draynot — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 22:32:38 GMT

draynay,

it's you who needs to wake up little man. You had no problem calling First Dude an elite horse and he had won nothing big when you called him that. The best he had done was finish 2nd in the Preakness but somebody had to finish 2nd in the race. As usual you missed the point entirely which was you were calling a horse a superstar and to that point he had beaten nobody. Now you call it silly when Twirling Candy has done far more than First Dude had at the point you called him a superstar. Typical East Coast RA, QR biased thinking.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Carlos in Cali — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 22:31:37 GMT

Random Thoughts:

I expect THS to improve 10-12 lengths in his next start and Mott will not underestimate his fitness level this time.

First Dude upgrading to a better trainer in Baffert is a good thing,but I still think he's a one-paced horse without a kick down the lane.

Twirling Candy was fractious at the gate and was throwing his head as soon as the gates opened in last year's Goodwoood,that race is a toss for me,he's much better than that.He towers over the SA Handicap field.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Billy's Empire — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 20:50:10 GMT

Jayjay, go back and watch the BCJ. No assumptions needed. Mo sat off of Riveting Reason in 2nd, edged closer on the turn, and dusted the field, including your Jaycito. In the Champagne, he ran 45 and change and came home 48 and change. You are going to be pissed when your horses are stuck behind a wall with no where to go in a 20 horse field. That will not be an issue with Mo and Soldat, and I am pretty sure Calvin is not on Dialed In.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

jayjay — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 07:09:11 GMT

Draynay : All you have are assumptions, if this and if that. Tell me, what IF um doesn't run 110 in 6F, where does that leave you?? You got no mo horse to jump on, you may have to take up my advice and switch to Quarter Horses then.

The Bid : I totally agree, the REAL HORSE debuts next week, his name is Jaycito.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

GunBow — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 06:15:16 GMT

draynot and Draynay:

I most certainly remembered Draynay writing that about First Dude last year, so thanks draynot for bringing it back to light. First Dude was going to be the next Quality Road.

In terms of Twirling Candy proving himself an elite horse, most years the winner of the Big Cap does this by simple virtue of winning the race. If Twirling Candy wins the Big Cap, I have a feeling Mike Watchmaker will keep him ranked the #1 older male. By definition, isn't Twirling Candy already elite?

Well, my answer is that Twirling Candy is not yet a bonafide elite horse. The Big Cap is his big test, and will tell us alot about how good this horse really is.

As for First Dude, I was nowhere near his bandwagon last year, a bandwagon which got really heavy after the Preakness. However, the move to Baffert has me intrigued, and I think Baffert's going to instruct Garcia to ride the horse aggressively, and I think First Dude's only chance of ever living up to his potential is as a pure frontrunner.

I guess, in fairness to Draynay, I should have qualified my statement about Twirling Candy proving himself an elite horse by beating First Dude. Naturally, if First Dude flops and no one else really runs well and Twirling Candy only wins by a desperate neck, then the win wouldn't certify Twirling Candy an elite horse. However, if First Dude runs as well as Jason, Ranagulzion, and I think he will(and as well as Draynay thought he would last year), and Twirling Candy still inhales him at the top of the stretch and runs off by 5, then yes, Twirling Candy will most certainly have proven himself an elite horse.

re: Real Derby Trail Starts with FOY

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 05:04:13 GMT

jayjay

Cool. Thanks. The San Felipe and The Rebel will be awesome races, not to mention the Timely Riderless battle. And we're not far off from the Louisiana Derby, then Florida Derby, and SA Derby. San Felipe could be loaded with talent. Dialed In is running an allowance OC, 3 and up, 9f ,4th race at GP this Sunday so he won't be in the Gotham, or TB Derby. That is a nice RTTR lineup you have. Good Luck, and keep up the good work blogging. Your posts are a lot of fun and you know what you are talking about. Just don't be making anymore bets where you give the field against your horse. Stick to supers, trifectas, and the other ones you hit. Super easy 29k Pk6 at SA today. Kind of wish I would have taken a shot at it. All low odds winners for a big payout. Strange. Looking forward to your Derby Super if you post it, if you don't mind sharing the loot.