Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

pomdeterre — Thu, 14 Apr 2011 09:23:06 GMT

Tinozomar-

I believe Durkin's comment at the finish was something to the tune of- not since Secretariat has there been such a shocking loss. I'd rethink my derby pick if I were you- comes in 3rd to an opt allowance colt??? OMG

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 00:41:45 GMT

Mr. Repole,

I just viewed the video of the "Get To Know Mo" event in New York today on NYRA's website. It was very classy, cute and very well done. I do feel, however, that since the contest was available to enter through Bloodhorse and you are posting these articles here and have a lot of fans and supporters of Mo right here, that Jason Shandler and a few of these Bloodhorse bloggers should have been invited as well as the four Facebook fans and contest winner. I think that was overlooked but I am very glad to see the meet and greet finally happen, I've been suggesting this for years. I am thrilled for the people who got to go, it is really something they will cherish forever. It was great of you to do it.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Yvonne Bastian — Thu, 07 Apr 2011 01:47:14 GMT

I was there at the Florida Derby and was very excited to see Stay Thirsty race again. To be totally honest, I enjoyed watching Nonna in the walking ring. She took it all in and was the first one to see me standing on the rail sporting my "Repole Stable" hat. Good luck with Mo in the Wood. I will be watching for Nonna in the winner's circle.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

jayjay — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 22:35:37 GMT

The Rock / Furlongs : I've been saying that for awhile now. I'm glad there's other folks who recognizes what the Kentucky Derby race is. Out of my top 4, Jaycito and Dialed In are probably who I'll stick with in the Derby betting because I'm not too worried about what post position they get. They don't need the lead, they just need a clean break and a good jockey to guide them through the traffic. People like Draynay who crowns speedballs in a race with 20 horses without thinking what post they get are betting fools. For the record, Draynay already said he will have all his money on Uncle Mo and he is just looking for the other 2 for the trifecta. If UM gets an inside post (1,2 or 3) I bet you that he'll dump the horse and look for the "Borel" horse. Of course, after the race, he'll declare he picked the winner even if he lost all his money on UM.

It's still quite early. PrePeg, another horse that everyone (including me) is pretty high on is number 19 in the earnings list. One bad race and he may not even make it to the Derby.

After all the preps are run, it still wouldn't give you the winner of the KD. Two factors to consider before you make your bets. They will have to get a good post position and hope the weather is something they like to run on.

I'm looking at the ones under the radar, the Funny Cide type horse. Who runs his race everytime and peaks on the biggest race of his life.

Oh, and please people, forget about Dialed In. That was a fluke win in the Florida Derby. My advice, bet all your money on Uncle Mo (just like Draynay). I prefer Dialed In at 10-1 or higher come derby day :)

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Joe Alva — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 09:37:12 GMT

Mr. Repole:

Thanks for your accessibilty and passion for the sport -- we need more owners like you! I wish you and Uncle Mo luck the rest of the way! You have a very talented horse there!

Furlongs:

Your comparison between Point Given and Uncle Mo makes a lot of sense to me. I remember Baffert's conservative approach up to the Derby believing he had the best horse in Point Given -- he did indeed, but when the horse drew way outside and had to be hustled early on in an unusually hot day in May, he showed that he did not have the foundation he needed for that grueling Derby. The Derby essentially became the prep he needed to win the other legs of the Triple Crown impressively and thus showed that even Hall of Fame trainers are not infallible.

I fear this could also happen to Uncle Mo. He looks like the most talented runner in this crop so far, but his Hall of Fame trainer is not leaving him much room for error. I hope the Derby does not pan out as a prep race for him to succeed in the other legs of the Triple Crown.

On a different yet related note, I was present on Sunday at the Florida Derby and it was quite a hot day in which I think weather played a factor in the outcome. Dialed In, who incidentally was conservatively trained for that race, performed better than his 93 Beyer figure indicates due to the heat. Shackleford's effort was impressive too given those conditions although I think he really got used up in that race and, as a result, may bounce in his next one. Soldat looked somewhat cooked and lathered up before the race and will surely improve in the Derby. To Honor and Serve, who disappointed again, but improved slightly over his Fountain of Youth debacle, is also likely to improve in the Derby for a trainer who is lights out at getting horses to go beyond 9 furlongs -- I don't like him to win the Derby, but he could be a great danger to hit the board that day.

The Florida Derby outcome is therefore being impulsively dismissed by many without taking into consideration all the factors that played into it. When Alysheba's slow Blue Grass Stakes outcome (a race he won, but was disqualified in) was similarly dismissed, Jack Van Berg's take on the outcome was keen as he reminded his naysayers that "time only counts when you're in prison!" The Florida Derby naysayers may want to wisely borrow a page from that book!

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 09:27:32 GMT

Wake up people, Dialed In ran past the entire field with 1 breeze under his belt. If you think the FL Derby was his best, you are in for a big surprise. Leparoux cracked him a few times with the whip and he coasted to a Grade I victory. I thought his final 1/4 was impressive for a prep race and for a horse that was far from cranked up. Shackleford was game on a speed favoring track and he did not know that he was 69-1. Dialed In has the KY Derby winning move and has a win over the track, enough said ROOKIES!

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Mike Relva — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 02:21:03 GMT

FURLONGS

Let's hope Dray doesn't have to tap into his rent money,and also conserve on fuel for his "jet". lmao

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

furlongs — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 22:55:23 GMT

I will say it again... Draynay is the guy at the track we all know. Mr. Perfect he always has the winners. It is always easier to pick the winners after the races have been run and tell everyone how that horse had to win. When he posts who he likes on these blogs he is LESS then avg picking winners and the ones he picks 95% of the time were less the 7-5 and Ray Charles could seen the horse winning the race. It is enjoyable to make fun at Draynay when he runs his mouth and looks dumb in the end but it gets old as well. I think Uncle Mo is a nice racehorse I have said that on these blogs many times but his BC win is starting to look lackluster if you look at who he beat and where they are now it doesn't look nearly as impressive as we all once thought it was. There are a few colts with the talent level of Mo only a few yes but it looks like he will have to face all of them in the same race and that doesn't bold well for Mo. If Uncle Mo does win the Roses I hope he goes on to win the Triple Crown for the Sport, but in no way can I see me betting him at the odds he will be versus who he has beat and the path he has taking to get to KY. HE may be indeed be the best of his generation but that doesn't mean he will win the Roses. Look at LAL last year. Also I remember a colt by the name of Point Given he was without a doubt the best of his generation and didn't win the roses because Baffert thought he was so much the best he wanted to save him for the Triple Crown. History has a way at repeating itself and it looks like Mr. Pletcher may be making the same mistake with Mo. Lets hope for horseracing's future I am wrong. Good luck to everyone at the windows and even you Draynay looking at the money you have burned in the wondows this winter I know you need it.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

no mo mo — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 20:03:52 GMT

The clock tells you all you need to know. Uncle Mo is 10 lengths faster than any other horse. He is 4 races from greatness and there is nothing anyone can do but watch and enjoy the best of our time.

Draynay 05 Apr 2011 12:26 PM

If you are only looking at clockings which with this statement you are Premier Pegasus ran a 1:41.2 mile and 1/16th in the San Felipe while Mo could only muster a 1:42.6 best in his only trip that long. That puts Mo BEHIND by 7 lengths based on clockings alone which is what you are basing this dumb statement on. Your statement reflects ignorance of the facts you state.

Uncle Mo will not win the Ky. Derby!!

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

greg sally — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 20:00:08 GMT

i think you are great for racing and i only wish their were more like you in racing. i will be at the derby and i wish you the best.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Householder — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 17:55:20 GMT

Mattew W is making the most sense right now. Love the Ferdinand, Real Quiet, Alysheba, analogy. A couple of those struggled in their last preps...a couple were behind the winners of the SA Derby. Look carefully/look deep at that race.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

stevebiscuit — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 17:26:45 GMT

Draynay, as of now all Uncle Mo has proven is that he's 3 3/4 lengths faster than allowance horses.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Draynay — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 16:26:56 GMT

The clock tells you all you need to know. Uncle Mo is 10 lengths faster than any other horse. He is 4 races from greatness and there is nothing anyone can do but watch and enjoy the best of our time.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Ted from LA — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 16:02:07 GMT

Dr. Drunkinbum,

I see what you did there with that post. I am going to nominate that post for the Blog Hall of Fame. It's the best post I've seen todate.

I have visions of Strike the Gold (Dialed In)closing on Uncle Mo, but coming up just short this time for Zito.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Matthew W — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 15:53:12 GMT

I am a huge Uncle Mo fan, he may have no other horse in his class, but he does have a serious challenge: the tenth furlong--I harken back to Snow Chief, who won the Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby in brilliant fashon--he was a heavy Derby favorite, but the white elephant in the corner of the room was the tenth furlong! Uncle Mo, being by Indian Charlie, has a big question to answer, and until that first Saturday in May, all talk is pure conjecture--I am looking very closely to the Santa Anita Derby--looking for a horse who can close--if he can close at Santa Anita--not necessarily win (Ferdinand, Real Quiet, Alysheba), he'll be a contender at Churchill....

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Footlick — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 15:04:37 GMT

I don't know who mentioned it, but Dialed In was certainly not being whipped in the stretch. He was being hand urged, but was running on his own power. I counted two hits, which is nothing. If he was being flailed the entire stretch I would say he was life and death. I don't think the win was the priority, a good race to progress his fitness was. Mr Zito wants him at his peak in the KY Derby, not the FL Derby. I'm not saying he is my pick, but I'm trying to be logical about a prep race for a lightly raced and trained horse.

2:24- PrePeg is certainly training well. If he runs another great race and comes out with his neck bowed and ready to run again, he will be a force I think. I would have rather seen Jaycito in the Wood, but I won't second guess Mr Baffert. All these trainers bringing horses up to the Derby know more than I do. Too bad he doesn't send The Factor to the Wood-lol.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

2:24 — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 14:21:07 GMT

Listen, I think Mo is the one to beat right now just like Draynay and Mr. Shandler. However, I also like Dialed In alot. What difference does it make that Shackleford was a 68-1 shot. He was 68-1 off of one poor effort in the FOY. And prior, he won a good allowance race. Could it be that he was a nice horse overlooked by the betting public and experts off of one poor effort? Fact is that most of these horses are being judged off of 3 to 6 starts at this point in their careers and are diffcult to handicap. I don't place much on Shackleford being 68-1.

Something tells me PrePeg is going to have much to say about who wins on May 7.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Mike Relva — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 14:16:06 GMT

DRAYNAY

Got to hand it to you,after you were wrong last month about The Factor and now Dialed In you KEEP MOVING ON AND IGNORE YOUR PREDICTION BEING WRONG. NICE WORK!

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Mike Relva — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 14:13:34 GMT

People can "cry" about the Fla Derby,but a win is a win. Dialed In was impressive. Sorry,Dray you will have to continue to hear about him.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

The Rock — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 13:53:34 GMT

Until post positions are drawn, who knows who'll win the Derby. Lookin' At Lucky drew post 1 last year and his fate was set. If Uncle Mo did the same, the same can be said for him.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

the_wiz — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 12:36:10 GMT

Being a speed favoring track doesn't mean a closer like Dialed In can't finish his race fast. All the "speed" horses in the Fla. Derby collasped except Shackelford who crawled home in pedestrian time the last 1/4. Dialed In did not finish nearly as fast as a Derby winner should have. Jason's right, the more prep races run, the better Mo looks. I'd add IF he maintains form and moves ahead at all he'll be hell on wheels to beat May 7. The Santa Anita Derby has the potential to produce a big challenger but if it plays out like the last few preps and none of the horses steps up with a big win in good time, we are going to have another Big Brown Derby where the rest of the herd is fighting for second. I'm hoping a horse like Premier Pegasus continues to move forward in the SA Derby and The Factor does the same in the Ark. Derby. Without some stiff competition even if Mo dominates we won't really know how good he is. The measure of a great horse is who he beats and how good they were when he beat them. If they are all weak non-contenders like draynay says they all are then it won't take a great horse to beat them.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

GunBow — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 06:41:13 GMT

The second favorite in the current Derby betting was life and death to beat 68-1 shot Shackleford in his final prep.

That tells me that maybe Jason is correct about this crop not being the strongest. There have been some good performances, mainly in maiden/allowance races around one turn, but the two-turn stakes have been slow. Last week, the La Derby, Spiral and Sunland Derby were all relatively slow, with either moderate or down-right pedestrian closing fractions. The same was true of the Florida Derby. With Uncle Mo not having to run fast in the Timely Writer, we just haven't seen many strong performances in stakes at a mile or over.

More and more I'm beginning to think there are few amongst this crop(and even the older horses for that matter) capable of running fast at 10 furlongs. Either Uncle Mo or a horse like The Factor will run away and hide, or we could see another Derby with a final half in 52 seconds and a monster super. A horse like Dialed In must be respected as a top contender if for no other than reason than the fact no other 3 year old has yet to run particularly fast around 2 turns(save The Factor). Aesthetically, some of these preps have been like watching UCON and Butler.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

draynay — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 06:35:07 GMT

I am looking forward to watching Brethren in the Arkansas Derby but there is another horse to look at with great interest. Santiva has won at Churchill and that is going to mean something the first Saturday in May. We all know Uncle Mo is the winner of the Derby but we still have to find 2 horses to fill out the Tri and I believe Santiva will be one to have on the ticket.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

jc — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 05:36:49 GMT

what's the big deal about uncle mo? he hasn't beat anyone yet, not even as a 2 year old. the best horses he beat in the breeders cup were stay thirsty and jp's gusto. now he'll be running saturday against those two horses stay thirsty beat in the gotham and everyone will be raving about him when he wins. it's like quality road all over again. wait til he beats some good horses before calling him a super horse.

re: Derby Mo-Jo Part III: Final Prep Time

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 04:19:31 GMT

Ted From LA

Beautiful, just beautiful, and symmetrical, very symmetrical wrapped in a hot dog inside of a bun inside of a riddle inside of an enigma. To go. Hold the mustard.