Florida Derby Downer

re: Florida Derby Downer

draynay's better half — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 19:47:06 GMT

How dare you say such things draynay!!

Mike, 2 things upset me about Mine That Bird. The first was I didn't get my Borel bet in because I thought my wife had done it and she thought I had done it. The second thing that upset me is he was a FLUKE winner and won only because Borel was on him.

draynay 08 Apr 2011 1:57 PM

I'm callin BS on this!! You listen here my man, you never had any intention of betting on MTB Borel or not. I'm here to tell these people the truth. You only came up with "the Borel angle" to make people think you were on to something. It's all BS and for you to blame me on your inept handicapping is ludicrous!! Now back to your holding cell!!

re: Florida Derby Downer

jayjay — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 05:07:40 GMT

Coldfacts...that's givin it to Rana. Agreed on the cease and desist! So many rookies and "sure winner" bloggers were silenced this weekend. LOL

re: Florida Derby Downer

Coldfacts — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 14:04:27 GMT

Ranagulzion

Coldfacts -“Sometimes your analysis is brilliant but at other times they are downright wild and crazy. I can think of a few examples but will spare you the embarrassment just now”

My response:

If it’s has not been exceedingly clear to you by now, I do not get embarrassed for my view points. I am by no means infallible. I am not afraid to be wrong. In a sport of glorious uncertainties one will probably be wrong more times than right. I am sure the contents of many of your posts are far more over the top than the measures ones that I have submitted.

If a vote should be taken on who should be more embarrassed for their positions you would win going away.

Below is an example of why you would win going away:

“Uncle Mo is looking good in the Wood, cantering home by 10 lengths and pulling a bus (unless Duca or "Norman" turns out to be something special, capable of finishing within 5 lengths of the champ). This is money for jam. A soup. A walk in the park. A cakewalk. An afternoon stroll. An armchair-ride for Johnny V. What mo can I tell you No Mo Mo”

BERNARDINI:

I know you must be sick in bed this morning as a Bernardini colt finished ahead of the once Mighty Mo. If Mr. Dominquez was any rider he would have won the Wood. A very poor ride!

Extract from a previous post:

It is absurd to stat that a particular freshman sire is incapable of siring a derby winner when there are at least three examples i.e., Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Seattle Slew. You are therefore being served with a cease and desist order.

WATCH ME GO/ANTHONY’S CROSS:

Your posts:

“I've posted enough about Watch Me Go's credentials and pedigree therefore I'll just let you observe his performance and watch you tip-toe your way around a post race analysis after the Illionois Derby”

“This weekend will show you that I'm right about Anthony's Cross and Watch Me Go. I don't expect AC to beat PrePeg but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull off the upset. WMG is a cinch in the Illinois Derby”

My post:

Watch Me Go like Pleasant Prince his sire and dam were unraced. This pedigree combination is rare. Determine was the last and probably the only derby winner whose sire and dam were unraced. He does not have the speed figures to win the derby but will be a very historic participant.

Let me restate, any horse that has trouble defeating an 86-1 $16K claimer who excited his last race on turf is not a horse that I would get overly excited about. Musket Man won the TBD in 1:43.67 and went on to win the Illinois Derby. He defeated Join In the Dance who would eventual lead the derby field for the first 6F. Do you see the $16K claimer leading this derby field? Watch Me Go time in the TBD was 1:44.25 and no winner exciting with that time has won their next race in the last five years. Watch Me Go is a very soft favorite and one notto get excited about.

Anthony's Cross: His trainer is his greatest liability. His horses are very unreliable and rarely run good races consecutively. He is another that will be fried in the early pace. He won a race at CD in 1:47. No top class colt record those times.

You have a lot to learn and the Coldfacts is here to assist.

re: Florida Derby Downer

SophieK — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 05:47:27 GMT

Notice Uncle Mo's action in the stretch? Dont be surprised if he doesnt run in the derby folks!! He galloped out bad after the Timely Writer....something is wrong with him physically....

re: Florida Derby Downer

mickey 1957 — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 04:30:17 GMT

it's been confrimed they were ducking ...the rest of the heavy hitters,my future bets look good now.

re: Florida Derby Downer

Meydan Rocks! — Sun, 10 Apr 2011 00:17:45 GMT

Well...?

re: Florida Derby Downer

mickey 1957 — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 23:04:37 GMT

now what...now what just make sure that bridge is high,when you suckers jump.

re: Florida Derby Downer

thomas — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 22:34:43 GMT

hit the exacta woo hoo but for $2 lol

maybe mo didn't like the track? who knows

re: Florida Derby Downer

Footlick — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 19:34:29 GMT

furlongs- I have been hoping more and more would realize that and not respond to him, but everytime he posts something that he knows will get a rise out of anyone, people respond to him. Better off ignoring him. I used to be entertained, but not anymore.

re: Florida Derby Downer

Coldfacts — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 12:12:50 GMT

Ranagulzion,

It is exceedingly clear to that I have to either learn another language or start giving lesson in comprehension. I did not compare THAS to SS. My point was that both MTB and SS lost their last two races preceding the derby. The horse I compared THAS to was Ferdinand. It does not matter now as THAS is off the trail. I noted you conveniently excluded the second horse MTB who was a better hors than SS. MTB finished a modest 4th in his last race preceding his derby win. This clearly shows you missed the point. I gave SS no shot to win the derby because he had none in book. He won by default and was aided by the sloppy track that a lot of the contenders did not like. If he was such a great derby winner which I dismissed, what did he do thereafter? You had him to win the TC. This shows your capacity to judge talent.

NB: In spite of the failures of many who have tried to beat down the Coldfacts, there are those who are still attempting. When will they learn?

re: Florida Derby Downer

furlongs — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 04:54:49 GMT

I have been on DRAYNAY's case for about a month now. I have decided to totally ignore what he says on these blogs from here on out. You can't win with a guy like him. He is never wrong and when he runs his mouth and is totally wrong like he has been on all this years Derby Preps outside of the Timely Writer STKS ($2.10) and Sam Davis STKS ($3.20), then he fails to respond and acts like nothing was said. The big question is why do we care what he thinks?? There are a couple of guys that hangout at Churchill just like him, and once you finally just get tired of listening to them how they always had the winners you just stay away from where you know they sit and chose to ignore them, it's not like they will ever really contribute before a race. You can't win with this kind of person. All I know is someone that will not step up and say he was wrong when he is when someone calls him out is not much of a man simple as that. Therefore you can continue thinking he will learn something or you can just not worry about him and ignore what he has to say cause in the end its not like he will ever point you on a horse thats more then 2-1 anyway so who cares! He is a cronic chalk player all it takes is one or two losing bets on any raceday and his profit is very little. He will bet a ton of Uncle Mo, lol that doesn't make you a good handicaper. Uncle Mo wins the Triple Crown and he has been saying it since Dec. OK so what that doesn't make him a good handicaper. Knowing a bad favorite and avoiding losing a large amount of money when your return will not justify the bet. That is a good handicaper and that is NOT what Draynay is. Even if I bet the Timely Writer Stakes (which I didn't) I sure wouldn't be on these blogs or any other bragging about it. Thats just messed up. So the only way to stop Draynay is to totally ignore him all together. After all we all know who he likes just look at the board for the blinking number... Good luck at the windows everyone.

re: Florida Derby Downer

Footlick — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 04:03:02 GMT

John T-I am excited about her return. A possible trip to the BC would be great, and another crack at the Abbaye.

re: Florida Derby Downer

John T — Sat, 09 Apr 2011 03:39:49 GMT

Footlick

Lady Of The Desert was runner-up in both her last starts in group 1 races including the Prix de L,Abbaye which is run at Longchamp

on Arc day.On that form she could become one of the top European sprinters this year and because she is trained by Brian Meheen there is more than a good chance that she will be at Churhill Downs

in the fall for the Breeders Cup.

re: Florida Derby Downer

jayjay — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 22:45:14 GMT

Draynay : The times that you posted your picks, they didn't win. It's easy to say you hit this and that after the fact. What happened with your sure bet Keertana ??

Unless Jason is with you every weekend, I doubt very much that he's seen you win a number of times. It's very easy to say you "win" when you're on the heavy favorite a lot. Putting $200 on a 1-2 or 4-5 to me is NOT winning, but I'm sure that's what you're all about. I bet $200 on 2 or 3 races and make $300 (profit) and I still don't consider it winning. All it means is that I can go play the next races with someone else money. Winning to me is when I go home with at least $500 profit.

re: Florida Derby Downer

Ranagulzion — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 21:21:31 GMT

COLDFACTS,

My methodology for arriving at a conclusion about Bernardini in 2006 may be too simplistic for you. Its called hindsight and that's 20/20 vision or you Bro. In the case of To Honour and Serve I'm applying foresight. All I can see is regression and a colt that may be at a point in his growth/development cycle where he's not ready to move forward on his 2YO form (typical of the AP Indys). He'll finish down the track in the Derby. Comparing him with Super Saver is like apples to oranges. SS was clearly rounding into form in both his prep races and was beaten in a driving finish by Line Of David in the Arkansas Derby. It funny how you are relying on the performances of Super Saver to bolster your argument now, when you gave him no shot to win the Derby last year (LOL). I'm sure that you're counting on some short memories here ...sorry friend.

I've posted enough about Watch Me Go's credentials and pedigree therefore I'll just let you observe his performance and watch you tip-toe your way around a post race analysis after the Illionois Derby.

re: Florida Derby Downer

draynay — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 17:57:12 GMT

re: Florida Derby Downer

Draynay — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 17:49:19 GMT

Jayjay, what you don't seem to understand is Jason has been at the track WITH ME and SEEN me win a number of times. So I have something of a history of winning with OTHER PEOPLE around. You have nothing but wishes and dreams.

re: Florida Derby Downer

slyder — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 16:15:32 GMT

I see draynay aka. Mr. BS Afterthefact has made another appearance to spew garbage. Ironic how after making a fool of himself with outrageous predictions that never come true he comes up with unsubstantiated bullcrap.

re: Florida Derby Downer

draynot — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 16:09:01 GMT

DRAYNAY

One element I've always noticed about you,or shall I say something you NEVER do is express remorse,concern,etc when a horse is injured or worse.

Mike Relva 07 Apr 2011 10:34 PM

Mike,

Never say never. If I recall correctly draynay whined and whined about Big Brown's foot AFTER he got whipped in the Belmont. He hasn't stopped.

re: Florida Derby Downer

mr pibb — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 13:37:51 GMT

draynay,

congrats on betting 700 to get to 3,000. Nice value,If that makes you "rich" then you don't have much to start with. Furthermore, if you learned how to handicap instead of throwing chalk/all/all/all in your bets you might make a decent profit the one of 10 times you get lucky. You said you put it all on one $2 ticket too, If you had split it into 8 .25 cent supers you would have avoided the tax man. Last years Derby I played a $20 tri with Super Saver, Ice Box/ Super Saver, Ice Box, Paddy O'Prado, Lookin at Lucky, Dublin/Super Saver, Ice Box, Paddy O'Prado, Lookin at Lucky, Dublin and it cost me a mere $240. I split it into .50 tri's, it took a little time to get 40 tickets but in the end I had 40 tickets that payed $584 each and no tax man. Even a $1 ticket would have necessatated filing forms. That's over 20k on a 240 bet but it's also chump change to me. I'll be looking down on you from my sky box on May 7. They tell me you will be the one wearing a pink dress waddling in the mud trying to fight your way to the rail in the infield to get a fleeting glimpse of Uncle Mo on the backstretch. Shouldn't be hard to spot.

re: Florida Derby Downer

Coldfacts — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 04:40:46 GMT

Ranagulzion

“If he came to hand in time for the Preakness he'd be following in his sire”

You have to be careful with what you submit. Bernardidni came to hand two weeks after the derby. Exactly what measurement methodology was employed to arrive at that conclusion? Mine that Bird and Super Saver made two loosing starts preceding and they won. They both distinguished themselves as 2YO. THAS ran 1:50 and a bit in the Remsen following a 1:36 mile. The FL Derby was run in 1:50 and a bit following a 1:36 mile and he got beat 4L. He has won 9F in 1:50 and he has lost twice in times slower than that which was recorded in his last victory. Conclusion: Not fully fit but has 5 weeks to get it right. This equates to danger. At 30-1 I have to dive in.

“This weekend will show you that I'm right about Anthony's Cross and Watch Me Go.”

Anthony’s Cross never runs two good races consecutively and therefore will not win. Watch Me Go defeated a $16000 claimer by a head. He is shipping to a new track and you expect him to win. I cannot see it happening I know very little about the rest but I like the pedigree of Vouch for Victory. His dam sire is two times derby winning sire Halo. His second dam Reviewer was sires of the ill fated Ruffian. His third dam was sired by Princequillo dam sire of Secretariat and his 4th dam was sired by Preakness winner Polynesian who was also sire of the great Native Dancer. With those broodmare sires in his dam line if he has any ability he should be competitive. His sire is the rarely seen Quest a grandson Mr. prospector. He is therefore a RAN sire line colt and merits watching. Is it significant that 5 of Mr. P’s grandsons have sired derby winner?

re: Florida Derby Downer

jayjay — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 02:46:50 GMT

Draynay : When you wake up dreaming with your win scenarios let us know. It's always easy to post something after the race had already been run. How about you post your bets you're betting on BEFORE the race. Any one can say they hit this race and that race after the it's already run. LOL, you're a joke.

I posted some P4 wins and Jason was on my behind about it. You're posting winnings every race and he's pretty quiet about it lol.

You said you bet big money on Mo in the KDFW, how about you post a pic of it.

re: Florida Derby Downer

Mike Relva — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 02:34:01 GMT

DRAYNAY

One element I've always noticed about you,or shall I say something you NEVER do is express remorse,concern,etc when a horse is injured or worse. It's great you have your priorities straight. I bring this to your attention for the fact I will be leaving very early tomorrow to drive to the airport to fly to AZ to visit a special horse,Dyna King half bro to Barbaro that's at a rescue/rehab center. So,enjoy your money and letting everyone know how great of a handicapper you are!What was I thinking,there's nothing more important!

re: Florida Derby Downer

Paula Higgins — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 01:56:56 GMT

Saw Premiere Pegasus is out with a fracture. He was the horse that might have given Uncle Mo a run for his money. Disappointing. He is a very good horse.

re: Florida Derby Downer

LAZMANNICK — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 01:51:59 GMT

Draynay

We're still waiting for you to answer the questions: When did Mo carry 125 lbs. and when did Toby's Corner score a 103 Beyer, unless his best Beyer, which is an 88, translates to 103 with you, which wouldn't surprise me seeing that you inflate everything else that has to do with numbers.