Derby Delirium

re: Derby Delirium

Householder — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 17:57:30 GMT

T-Descent not going in the Oaks! Perhaps Zazu can "run into" Baffert's filly Plum Pretty. She's bred pretty well...Medaglia D Oro out of an A.P. Indy mare. Pretty interesting to say the least with her romp in New Mexico.

re: Derby Delirium

Trebloc — Tue, 26 Apr 2011 00:08:41 GMT

Back from vacation! Congrats to Jersey Tom for his Hill Top Award!

Does the whole Pletcher barn have the stomach bug? First Uncle Moe, then Brethren and now Cal Nation?

Borel to ride Stay Thirsty?

re: Derby Delirium

Draynay — Mon, 25 Apr 2011 18:42:24 GMT

Lol.... I don't blame you Footlick that was just flat ugly.

Makes me wonder if Pletcher is babying these young horses too much.

re: Derby Delirium

KY VET — Sun, 24 Apr 2011 01:54:15 GMT

Coldacts! I can't criticize you master of hounds pick....good horse! of course he has that giraffe neck.....

re: Derby Delirium

Footlick — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 22:48:26 GMT

Dray- I almost gave you that one, then I watched the "beast" run. Now I can't believe you again.

re: Derby Delirium

Coldfacts — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 22:16:19 GMT

Master Of Hounds

RACE RECORD

26 Mar Meydan 2nd UAE Derby-Gr.2, 1 3/16m (beaten a nose by Khawlah)

06 Nov Churchill Downs

6th BC Juvenile Turf-Gr.2, 1m (beaten 3¼ lengths by Pluck)

23 Oct Doncaster 3rd Racing Post Trophy-Gr.1, 1m (beaten 2 ¾ lengths by

Casamento)

11 Jul Tipperary 1st Maiden, 7f. (by 6 lengths)

26 Jun Curragh 2nd Maiden, 7f. (beaten 2 ½ lengths by subsequent Group 1

winner Roderic O’Connor)

10 Jun Leopardstown 2nd Maiden, 7f. (beaten a short-head by Dunboyne Express who

won the Anglesey Stakes-Gr.3 by 8 lengths on his next start).

23 May Curragh 5th Maiden, 6f. (beaten 4 lengths by Moonlit Garden)

With the exception of the UAE Derby which is run on Tapeta, all his starts were on Turf.

re: Derby Delirium

Draynay — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 14:42:53 GMT

Footlick, not at Keeneland. Under 11.50 at Keeneland is flying and not done very often.

re: Derby Delirium

Ranagulzion — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 14:40:35 GMT

KY VET,

Its okay to refer to the "facts man" by his moniker, Coldfacts. Hes a good sport and gives as much as he gets.

Anyway, I found your turkey comment very funny ...I wonder how much ground Midnight Interlude will be "gobble gobbling" up in the Derby (LOL).

re: Derby Delirium

sniper — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 05:40:24 GMT

I have to mention and face the music that I not only picked a loser (posted) but a chalk loser --although I did very well at Finger Lakes for the day--if he was 50-1 and lost this would not be posted--sad pick--I never tout chalk but that's life.

re: Derby Delirium

Footlick — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 03:39:19 GMT

Dray- yes off a 5 month layoff and more. It isn't a dirt race. Turf closers close in 11 and change routinely. She is a classy filly. It was a nice race.

re: Derby Delirium

Socko from Atlanta — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 02:27:43 GMT

....No Reason To "Abandon Ship" on Uncle Mo,....You Gotta Have Faith People !! ,....In Addition ,..My "Derby Winner" From Early On Has Been Dialed In ,..Make Up Your Mind During The Post Parade ,....

re: Derby Delirium

Draynay — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 02:11:06 GMT

Footlick, off a 5 month layoff?

Jayjay, Ten lil Indians won thank you very much. It's called picking a winner try it sometime.

re: Derby Delirium

KY VET — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 01:42:50 GMT

Ranagulzion....the facts man goes on facts....just the wrong ones...so what if no starts as a 2 yr old....lets leave this fact out....the horse has a swan neck! who better than a turkey......

re: Derby Delirium

Footlick — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 23:57:06 GMT

Not uncommon for turf horses, Dray

re: Derby Delirium

Mike Relva — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 22:25:57 GMT

JAYJAY

Yeah,now you hear nothing regarding "Triple Crown winner" for Mo. Dray is trying to ignore he boasted this back in Jan. lol

re: Derby Delirium

Ranagulzion — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 21:54:55 GMT

Coldfacts,

I read on another blog where you said that you were backing Master of Hounds and prepared to go down with the RAN sinking ship if that colt failed to fire on dirt in the Derby (I'm paraphrasing your comment). Now you are backing an inexperienced colt, Midnight Interlude, that has no seasoning, having not raced as a 2YO, to win the Derby, and touting him over a battle-tested Dialed In, that has won three out of four starts? At this point I'd have to say that you've jumped from a sinking ship to clutch at a straw like a drowning man. Dialed In will win the Kentucky Derby and again confound your analysis, like he did in the Florida Derby. I look forward to your post race comments.

re: Derby Delirium

jayjay — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 21:08:21 GMT

It's funny how one posting of your $10 P3s and missing 2 out of 3 can humble you.

No longer any attitude but begging for someone else to think the same way...LOL

re: Derby Delirium

Mike Relva — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 20:55:24 GMT

"HANK"

Why don't you knock it off? Some of us know WHO YOU REALLY ARE!

re: Derby Delirium

draynay — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 15:57:32 GMT

Did anyone else notice that Winter Memories came home the last 1/8th in under 11.50 seconds ? Is it me or does anyone else believe Ten Lil Indians could give Angel's Share a fight in the 3rd at Keeneland?

re: Derby Delirium

The Rock — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 14:28:41 GMT

Terri Z - My pleasure.

Illum,

Regarding the preps, I don't think you can really say one was stronger than the other. You're really walking a tight rope with making that decision. This year is very unique. I think come home times and the toughest preps should be thrown by the way side. It seems as though all of these horses are slow. I'd advise looking for a horse that's progressing forward then backwards unless they had 1 race with an excuse. If a horse keeps finding himself into trouble, I would only expect more in the derby. Just my 2 cents.

re: Derby Delirium

The Rock — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 14:21:47 GMT

Dray,

The way I deal with maiden races, I figure every horse can change the way they run at anytime. Especially after they've had a couple of starts. Reason being is because they haven't come up with a formula for success yet. So even if a horse speeds and fades first time out, a lot of people suspect that he/she will do the same thing next time out. Next thing you know the horse is rating and wins for fun. But those maiden races during the middle of the card were up in the air. I went for 1ster's in both as top choices thinking the fields were evenly matched & the top horses weren't of much value. But I played light, so I only suffered minor scrapes.

re: Derby Delirium

Playfriskyforme — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 06:02:09 GMT

Six horse super box will cost $360,There are only 7 or 8 that really seem to figure. Hit that and take the summer off.

re: Derby Delirium

John — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 04:32:22 GMT

For all you that still believe Uncle Mo will run and win the Kentucky Derby in 15 days - then check out these recent headlines..."Uncle Mo Still Improving..."..."Uncle Mo Making Progress..."..."Pletcher Keeping An Eye On Uncle Mo...".

Is that what you want to hang your hopes on?

re: Derby Delirium

Coldfacts — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 04:09:19 GMT

Ted from LA,

You had me cracking up and rushing to my dictionary. You are seriously funny. (Cornucopia) One definition - An overflowing store; an abundance. Jason is the writer here and is more equipped to do a book. He has a show that focuses on picking winners.

Ranagulzion,

Dialed In:

The first set of comments I submitted about the above colt were a mix of positives and negatives. This was before his Holy Bull victory as I did not see his maiden race. The first and possibly only positive was the fact that his dam was lightly rqaced. His historic negatives were far greater than the positives. (a) He was sired by son of A P Indy and sons of the great stallion have not distinguished themselves in the Triple Crown races. They are still on ‘Zero” (b) His dam was sired by Storm Cat who up to 2006 had a broodmare band of 281 that had produced 554 runners. None of these runners have won a TC race. I did not like Sydney’s Candy in the derby because of this fact in spite of his brilliance. (c)) His dam was purchased for $1.3M. She represents another miserable failure produced by a broodmare that earned over $1M who was bred to Storm Cat. Miss Doolittle belong to a category of mares that have a derby jinx..

My first sight of Dialed In was in the HB. His awkward galloping action stood out like a sore thumb. He used his late closing speed to overtake a group of colts who were one pace in the last furlong. His victory was impressive and so too the size of his large neck. That is not the size neck you want to see on a router. If you want to see the perfect neck for a router, review the video of the SA Derby and take a close look at the winner Midnight Interlude in the winner enclosure. He has a neck like a swan and a rear end loaded with power. HE HAS THE Ideal configuration for a derby horse. Horses that close from that far back do not need that extra weight to carry. In addition to the extra weight he has this laborious action. He was dead tire after the FL Derby where he had only one horse to pass in the stretch and he took all day and only got by when that horse swerved. In all his victories the leaders were either backing up or one pace. He was the only genuine closer in those races. He will not be the only colt closing in the derby but he will be the one closing from farthest back. There are a number of clots that have high cruising speed and will accelerate out of strong fractions. With the suspect 10F pedigree of most of the colts that made the cut, no one is going to run 1:10 for the 1st 6F. Dialed In is therefore going to be a victim of a slow derby pace as the 2011 crop will not be running with the usual dose of steroids.

Dialed has not done anything to set himself apart from the rest:

(a) Has he recorded faster times? No!

(b) Did he blow away the competition while in hand? No!

Let’s compare Dialed In to Midnight Interlude. In Dialed in last race he struggled to defeat the winner of a NW2 allowance race. Midnight Interlude on the other hand came out of a maiden race to defeat a G1 & Glll winner who won six of his 13 starts. Now, which achievement is more significant? I cannot see how Dialed In is so high on everybody’s list. Is he going to out close a closer that has beaten better company? He will need more than large lungs and heart passed on to exceptional horses like Secretariat via inbreeding to Princequillo to win. Try a miracle!

re: Derby Delirium

John T — Fri, 22 Apr 2011 03:55:31 GMT

I think it is very sad that so many people have already written this years crop of 3 year olds off

and''It,s Only April''.And that is only because the Derby trials have

not turned out the way they wanted

it to be.I think there are a lot of promising 3 year olds out there that will prove there worth before the year is out.