Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

2:24 — Tue, 03 May 2011 01:01:16 GMT

Who's going to the Derby? I'll be in Sec. 321, row k. Come by and say hello.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Mike Relva — Mon, 02 May 2011 22:24:16 GMT

JAYJAY

Agreed

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

JayJay — Mon, 02 May 2011 21:39:31 GMT

Draynay : THANK YOU for posting that you will NOT have Dialed In in any of your tickets. At least he's got a chance.

The Rock : Did you play my picks it the Cliff's Edge ? Not a bad payout although I thought it would be more since TM never hit the board.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

draynot — Mon, 02 May 2011 19:45:30 GMT

Nehro might well be picking up that label as the “buzz” horse for the 137th Kentucky Derby, and trainer Steve Asmussen isn’t all that happy about it.

“I don’t want any ‘Mushes’ on the bandwagon,” Asmussen said slyly. “I don’t want them bringing any of their bad luck around.”

He's talking about you draynay, get off the Nehro bandwagon!!

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

sniper1 — Mon, 02 May 2011 19:41:58 GMT

Mike-

Lots of great jocks don't win the Derby--Gomez (2nd) is just one of them Solis (2nd by head), Johnny V (2nd with 30-1), Hawley (2nd to Seattle Slew), The Mig, Rafael Bejarano and on and on--just off the top of my head coming to mind. Gomez is a great rider.

Mike Manganello and Robby Franklin did---Does that mean they are better? AND Mike M did a Borel exploding up the rail with a longshot. Probably before your time.

Did he or Franklin ever even get another try at it?

Horse runs the race---NO JOCK can make an overmatched horse win.

That said, if Borel wins this one he will be magic---let him win I just won't have money on him and suggest yours stays in your pocket as he will be less odds than he should be with Borel and the like people thinking with you he is a Derby God.

Would be a hell of a story if he can do it again. If the horse I bet isn't in the hunt let him win another. He will have a cult following if he does.

Note he bumped a rider that got his horse into the Derby C. Santiago-Reyes and that may be the only shot he will ever get the honor of riding in the Derby.

Try this

Horse 70%

Trainer 26%

Jockey 4%

Horse has to have talent or the other 2 are void---trainer is very important because you can make a great horse speed crazy or for the gusto in his 2 yr season or never find the key to making him give his best or cultivate his talent.

I would say there are about 100 good riders in NA that are within 1 length of each other. If given the best horse they will win.

Couple of years ago Steve Elliot won won and Pino was second in another Derby---do you know how many races these two have won between them? Would these guys have lost on Uncle Mo last year? Who won two Breeders Cup races last year on longer priced horses and doesn't get calls in many stakes races? Hint he rides in KY. Where's his Derby mount?

Heads Up Borel couldn't make Rockamudo or Arctic Boy win --just 2 that come to mind that had no shot entering the gate.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Householder — Mon, 02 May 2011 17:57:27 GMT

Nice even spits of 12 coming from Plum Pretty today (Monday May 2) over the slop. Much better workout.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

JayJay — Mon, 02 May 2011 16:41:25 GMT

Draynay : You need to learn more about horse racing before you start talking to me about horses. Picking a horse because EVERYONE picks him doesn't make you a horse racing expert. You haven't picked a winner in any of the prep races so save it LOL. You're a joke, everyone knows it...just keep your picks to yourself and stop cursing the horses.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Mike Relva — Sun, 01 May 2011 22:03:56 GMT

DRAYNAY

Please do what you always do,when you're wrong about Dialed In "not hitting the board",ignore you even said it like you always do.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Mike Relva — Sun, 01 May 2011 22:01:22 GMT

SLYDER

Yeah that's what it is,a fluke that Calvin won three of the past four Derbys. Question? How many riders go their entire career without winning ONE? Please. Has Gomez ever won? lol

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Draynay — Sun, 01 May 2011 20:38:45 GMT

For the record jayjay. Having Dialed In on top of any ticket is plain nonsense. Thinking he has done ANYTHING to make you believe he will circle 19 horses is just plain crazy. If Dialed In hits the board it's because he jumped the fence and ran into it.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

trackjack — Sun, 01 May 2011 02:26:11 GMT

Billy,

Thanks for the info and updates.

We leave in the morning for Louisville. This race is so wide open, I can look at 14 horses and would not be surprised if any of them win. Trying to narrow down to 4 or 5 horses for boxes is hard. Post position may alter things and I will be watching, listening and reading these blogs while I'm there but right now my five are:

Archarcharch

Nehro

Uncle Mo

Shackleford

Mucho Macho Man

with Shackleford to win.

Good Luck to everyone.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

tcc — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 23:11:38 GMT

Jason:,

Jayjay;

Just going to see if I can get lucky in the Cliff's Edge, and catch a bigger Superfecta using the 1,5,9. Using those 3 horses in the 1st,2nd,3rd,and 4th positions with all-all-all.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Zen's Auntie — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 03:36:53 GMT

In my very, very best Jimmy Durante now...

Archarcharch Arch

He looks like the real thing for Jinx, John and the "Junkman" (warm heartedly with the utmost respect and good wishes)

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

slyder — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 21:16:34 GMT

They made the right choice for Master Of Hounds. Could have had Borel but without blinking they took Gomez instead. This proves owners/trainers don't believe Borel has any special "magic" at CD and view the last couple of years as "flukes" as far as he is concerned. There were a number of open horses and CB had to settle for Twice The Appeal as his best shot. The rest just didn't want him on.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Weekend — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 15:13:25 GMT

Working tomorrow

Animal Kingdom

Shackleford

Watch me Go(maybe sunday)

Mucho Macho Man

Pants On Fire

Twinspired (trackside)

Kathmanblu

Lilacs and Lace

Summer Soiree (maybe sunday)

Proctor's horse Banned, 5th in the BC Juvenile Turf, then 2nd or third last out at Keeneland, may start in the 3yo turf race on Oaks day, the American Turf, and race against Great Mills, Powhowtan County, Adirondack Summer and some other really classy 3yo turf horses.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

sniper1 — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 14:44:00 GMT

Vet you are right I am all over the place--of course you can't remember your comments or read well it seems.... but this is not my way---good luck professional

Sorry I can't resist---who on the Idol Blogs are you touting--- pro

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

nm sol — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 13:58:09 GMT

being the wide open race that it is, with such low numbers in most of the preps, if ANIMAL KINGDOM runs he will be my win place bet. he has won near the lead, and he has won coming from far back. he seemed to win the spiral so easy, with plenty left in the tank . i wouldnt be surprised if alan garcia chose ANIMAL KINGDOM over SOLDAT.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Jason Shandler — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 13:47:44 GMT

Billy: I have a $10 future wager on Summer Soiree at 50-1.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Weekend — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 12:53:32 GMT

Animal Kingdom has never raced less than a mile in 4 lifetime starts, winning 2 and placing in 2. He is a huge question mark this year. I am going to watch him and Summer Soiree work in the morning.

Please go watch a replay of the Bourbonette Oaks. Summer Soiree crushed that field, and the 4th place filly, Lilacs and Lace, came back to win the Ashland. Just sayin, Larry Jones could of been training the Oaks exacta before she was sold. I know THS Star Jason likes her too...

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Monarchos Matt — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 03:09:28 GMT

Some interesting pedigree statistical info I ran across today for those that are interested in things like Dosage Index and Tomlinson Speed Figs:

Dosage Index- 3 Lowest Figures:

1. Master of Hounds 1.07

2. Twinspired 1.15

3. Animal Kingdom/ Santiva 1.67

Dosage Index- 3 Highest Figures:

1. Nehro 4.33

2. Dialed In 3.62

2. Shackleford 3.62

Tomlinson Distance- 3 Highest Figures:

1. Animal Kingdom 365

2. Master of Hounds 342

3. Santiva/ Brilliant Speed 336

Tomlinson Distance- 3 Lowest Figures

1. Mucho Macho Man 188

2. Decisive Moment 242

3. Twinspired 248

Again, I'm not sure how much stake any of you put into these attempts to measure pedigree statistically. But, for what it's worth, a few things certainly stick out here if these numbers are assumed to have any handicapping value at all:

- Based on these two measures alone, Master of Hounds appears to have the best distance pedigree on paper. This probably is not a surprise. And also obviously does not mean anything about his ability to handle the surface or about his fitness.

- What is a surprise is that Nehro has the highest Dosage Index number in the field, suggesting that his speed pedigree is stronger than his stamina. His performances to date have suggested the exact opposite. Dialed In coming in with the second highest number is also very surprising to me considering the way he has won his races.

- Not only does Mucho Macho Man have the lowest Tomlinson figure, he has the lowest figure by a wide margin. Does this mean he can't get the distance? Probably not, but it certainly bears mention. The highest Tomlinson figure in last year's race belonged to Super Saver.

- Santiva and Animal Kingdom appear to have the next best distance numbers. Again, this says nothing about speed, surface preferences or conditioning, but is interesting nonetheless.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

KY VET — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 02:11:02 GMT

SNIPER....YOURE ALL OVER THE PLACE.....WHAT EXACTLY ARE YOU SAYING? WOW! GOOD LUCK ON YOUR DERBY!

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

sniper1 — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 22:45:04 GMT

KyVet oh or do I mean Dray--are you the same?

I totally admit be humbled at times as a gambler quite unlike it seems you or the same.

Didn't have MTB or Super Saver bet Lucky and Musket Man--Street Sense I did have tri more than once but it wasn't anything to get excited about---I had the winner but didn't pound--as for Big Brown I bet him to but very very little--the race was a pass for me with him so short of price---DID cash and when I say cash I think about $12K or a little more on Unbridled--- Nice lick but nowhere close to 12 G's on Smarty Jones. Been wrong plenty. I admit it---but if I was posting???? I love to compete against you 2 or 1

PS Vet as a Newbie---Yes Edward Plunket Taylor knew me by name--Yes Ron Turcotte when walking and after Secretariat came to my house. Yes I saw the Arc in person when Nijinsky got beat by Sassafras. I have only been to the Proud Clarion Derby when he beat Damascus---a "true newbie"---

Vet what starts with an "I" and ends with a "T" and has 3 other letters???? 5 the same as KYVET

As mentioned the guy sitting next to me at the track (he can't yell or boast or show tickets on close calls or I wouldn't be sitting next to him/her)would have no idea if I am up or down large or small.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

tcc — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 21:45:24 GMT

Jason:

Thirteen colts have been entered for Saturday’s 203rd running of the Qipco Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) at Newmarket, but nearly all eyes will be on one horse in particular—Frankel.

Regular rider Tom Queally gets the return call on Frankel.

The field may have gotten a bit lighter for Frankel on Thursday when Aidan O’Brien decided against entering Master of Hounds, who probably will be entered in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) on May 7 at Churchill Downs.

Instead, O’Brien will be saddling Roderic O’Connor at Newmarket on Saturday. By Galileo, Roderic O’Connor will make his three-year-old debut off a successful juvenile campaign that included a victory in the Criterium International (Fr-G1) and a runner-up finish in the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Eng-G1).

Other notable entrants include Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1) winner Casamento, Boylesports.com Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Ire-G1) winner Pathfork, Group 2 winner Saamidd, multiple Group 3 winner Native Khan, Group 3 winner Rerouted, and multiple stakes winner Dubawi Gold.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

Draynay — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 18:50:44 GMT

Dialed In has done nothing to make me believe he can hit the board at the Kentucky Derby. I will not have hin on a single ticket nor will I have Toby's Corner.

re: Who Will Have the Lead at the Eighth-Pole?

slyder — Thu, 28 Apr 2011 18:25:57 GMT

twice the appeal may have moved up a few lengths but he won't be there at the finish. cb's run is done.