Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Householder — Wed, 07 Dec 2011 00:38:54 GMT

"The Dude" gets no respect.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Slew — Sun, 10 Jul 2011 13:49:47 GMT

Gee...thanx Bob for the update?

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Bob from Boston — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 19:43:08 GMT

"What happened with Rogue Romance?" Ironically, I know the answer to this. mz didn't have a large enough sign so she and Ted from LA didn't "hook up."

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Householder — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 18:42:47 GMT

I think Smiling Tiger is the best spinter period. He faced the best last year when he was only 3. He ran third at CD in last year's Sprint and he made his latest Grade 1 win look easy. All systems go for this year's BC Sprint. Watch for a 45-60 day layoff. This has been the key to big runs for Smiling Tiger.

Twirling Candy...forget about him. "I'm not Mr. Lebowski, I'm the Dude." "Call me the Dude."

Mr. Baffert is packing a potent 1-2 punch in the Gold Cup at this distance. One will be pushing TC on the front while the other stalks. Both have exerience with 1 1/4.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

deb — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 16:29:04 GMT

I hope Shackleford is awarded this honor. He is a beauty and all boy horse. I have enjoyed watching all the kids this year. They all were champions to me but the Shack has a real pull on my heart.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

GunBow — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 09:44:23 GMT

A few weeks ago Jason wrote that we probably won't know how good Twirling Candy is until the Breeder's Cup.

Well, if Twirling Candy loses the Hollywood Gold Cup this Saturday, that would make him 0 for 3 in gr.1 races around 2 turns, and drop him out of serious Breeder's Cup Classic contention.

A win by Twirling Candy in the Gold Cup would certainly keep him on track for the Classic, but Jason's probably correct that we likely still won't have a crystal clear understanding of his Classic chances.

The reason is that the Gold Cup, being run on synthetic and without a pure frontrunner, is likely to produce one of those glacial 1:15 for 6 furlongs pace.

Although Twirling Candy has yet to win beyond 9 furlongs on any surface, my belief is that he should be able to get 10 furlongs, at least on turf or synthetic. The typically slow early paces of turf and synth races turn stretch drives into battles of acceleration and brilliance. Given a slow pace to deal with, Twirling Candy is able to conserve energy and preserve his brilliant turn of foot until the stretch. That's precisely what happened in the Californian.

The typical pace of a dirt race, however, has a tendency to turn finishes into wars of attrition, and thus feature far slower final fractions. Twirling Candy's style does not seem to lend itself to wars of attrition.

In the Big Cap, Twirling Candy used up alot of his energy racing near a 46 and 3 pace, leaving him with little in the stretch(the bumping no doubt did not help).

Another good example of this is the Goodwood. Although the Goodwood was run over Hollywood's Cushion Track, the race shaped up more like a dirt race. Twirling Candy battled with Crown of Thorns through a half in 47 and 4 and 6 furlongs in 111 and 4. For a dirt race, that's solid fractions; for Cushion Track that is downright blazing. The result of the pace was that Twirling Candy faded the final sixteenth to finish 4th.

If Twirling Candy wins the Gold Cup sitting off a 1:15 pace, it will be somewhat difficult to translate the race over to the Classic.

My guess is that Twirling Candy will ultimately prove that he can run 10 furlongs, maybe on synth or, more likely, on turf. And we already know Twirling Candy can dirt, having won the gr.1 Malibu and gr.2 Strub. What we don't know, and likely won't know until the Classic, is if Twirling Candy can run 10 furlongs on dirt.

For Twirling Candy fans, the best result this Saturday would be if Twirling Candy rates without incident behind a solid pace(fast for Cushion), accelerates on the far turn, and powers home in the stretch to win going away. This result would go furthest to suggest that Twirling Candy can successfully run a classic distance over dirt.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Alex'sBigFan — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 03:30:51 GMT

Oldie,

Thank you! Many could do it here.

Whatever is decided is fine with me, I'll participate in any way.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

tcc — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 21:48:06 GMT

Jason:

Uncle Mo to return to Pletcher July 11, point toward King's Bishop.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Slew — Mon, 04 Jul 2011 13:08:39 GMT

I picked "other" because if To Honor and Serve comes back running as well as he did at 2...he'll be tough to beat. Love Pants On Fire and Premier Pegasus. What happened with Rogue Romance? I think Saratoga will define the 3 year old champ, more than any other meet.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

GunBow — Sun, 03 Jul 2011 02:59:22 GMT

Oustanding stakes races today at Hollywood Park.

Kudos to the Wygods and Bill Mott for shipping Courageous Cat out from New York 3 weeks after his win in the Poker. The Wygods live in California, and Mott has always been sporting and shipped horses out West, going back to the days of Cigar, Geri, and others in the 90s.

I know many were critical of Sherriffs and how he blamed the "Rockies" for not shipping Zenyatta, but if people are going to criticize Sherriffs you also have to criticize Eastern horsemen that act like California is in Asia. The Hollywood Gold Cup next week figures to only have one shipper, the middling Dark Cove.

Due to the boldness of Mott and the Wygods, Courageous Cat is now a deserving gr.1 winner. A horse with trmendous talent, Courageous Cat was on his game in the Shoemaker, and was handled excellently by P Val. I wouldn't be surprised if he jumps to the #1 spot in alot of the polls for the male turf division.

Still, it wasn't easy for Courageous Cat. The popular Caracortado returned to his best form, and was finally given an alert ride by Talamo who, thankfully, had him more engaged early. Caracortado came with his run in the stretch, but he just wasn't good enough.

The Sheomaker is definitely on a short list for race of the meet.

The Triple Bend saw the return of the nationally elite sprinter Smiling Tiger. Smiling Tiger came into the Triple Bend already a 2-time gr.1 winner in California, and he had been just Twirling Candy's nose short in the Malibu of having 3 gr.1s. Smiling Tiger proved he was a sprinter of national/international quality with a solid 3rd in the BC Sprint, and a win in the gr.3 Count Fleet at Oaklawn. In his prior start, the Churchill Handicap, Smiling Tiger finished out of the money for the first time in his career, but he had tons of excuses, having been repeatedly blocked through the stretch while running on the notorious dead rail.

Back in California for gr.1 Triple Bend, Smiling Tiger proved that he is a level or two superior to the parochial Cali horses Amazombie and Camp Victory. Smiling Tiger was simply devastating in the Triple Bend, dominating the race throughout. And the time of 1:21 and 1 is outstanding for Cushion Track.

A proven elite performer across the country on synth and dirt, Smiling Tiger should once again be ranked near the top of what is a loaded sprint division.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Ms Easy Goer — Sat, 02 Jul 2011 06:11:11 GMT

Shackleford is all guts and heart and will keep trying- and succeeding- at outrunning his pedigree. He was in the hunt for most of his races and always tries hard. Bwsides that, he's gorgeous. I loved Animal Kingdom's sire and was so happy when he had a good son on dirt. Everyone is saying that this crop is sub par but look at the heart of some of these horses- ArchArchArch included. I think running times don't always show the measure of a horse. Most horses run only as fast as they have to to win. And in today's World, most save some for the next race. Look at how many weeks in a row Shackleford raced and did well- and he's still around. Who else can say that? Cannot wait until they come up to my neck of the woods- Saratoga.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Mary Zinke — Sat, 02 Jul 2011 04:10:14 GMT

Johnny,Your idea would ensure many comments. It's been so quiet since the Belmont.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Alex'sBigFan — Sat, 02 Jul 2011 03:46:01 GMT

Finally, news on Soldat! At least he just has "hurty feet" and will get some rest. I could not bear to hear of another injury, I'm kind of heartbroken over Animal Kingdom as it is.

Guest bloggers for Jason - Dr. D. and Linda in Texas would be just perfect! Heck, Dr. D would make a great bloodstock agent and Linda a great chief steward, let alone bloggers!

Happy vacation Jason and Happy 4th of July everyone.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Oldie — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 19:39:14 GMT

For guest blogger, I propose a blog that begins with Alex'sBigFan announcing a topic, followed by Dr. D, Laz, Zookeeper, and Linda In Texas each writing a paragraph about the topic to lend a broad perspective.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Householder — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 18:35:54 GMT

Amercian Lady...looks to be a half sister to the Pamplemousse. Looks like she got the "good half."

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Householder — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 18:31:42 GMT

ZA ZA ZUUU! I knew she would be short in the OAKS after a layoff.

Like the look of another grey, Baffert's American Lady. Test Stakes at Saratoga??? Get in while her stock is rising.

Triple Bend looks good. Smiling Tiger is back in CA.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Johnny — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 18:06:32 GMT

Guest Blogger how about the worlds best handicapper Draynay!!

Happy 4th..

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Karen in Texas — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 16:48:32 GMT

My picks for guest blogger would be Lazmannick or Dr. Drunkinbum. Laz has a wide range of racing knowledge and Dr. D is an aspiring writer (if I remember correctly). It would be fun!

Have a happy 4th of July everyone!

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Linda in Texas — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 15:55:06 GMT

Dr. Drunkinbum, Jason's blog is highly technical when it comes to handicapping, etc. I am not savvy in that department whatsoever.

Your sense of humor is delightful and so too is Ted from L A or Bob from Boston, and of course many others.

Have a great and safe racing week end plus 1 and have a Happy Fourth of July everybody.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 13:13:18 GMT

Linda In Texas

Thanks. I think you would be an excellent guest blogger or blogster !!!!! It would be nice to get some of your special insight on here.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

MikeM — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 11:35:52 GMT

Sorry but I'm not convinced that Animal Kingdom's injury resulted from him being checked at the start of the Belmont. More than likely it was brewing and it was just a matter of time.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

The Deacon — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 07:15:58 GMT

Jason: Any word on the plans for Nehro?

How is Boys at Tosconova doing?

Thanks

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Shackleford — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 03:45:39 GMT

Shackleford is far better than anyone thinks. He'll sweep the Haskell/Travers/JCGC/BCC -- HotY. You heard it here first.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 02:16:18 GMT

Derblin

That's a good idea. The older female division is the best in racing right now so why not have the female blogger division run the show while Jason is gone. There are quite a few regulars and semi- regulars that could do it.

Bob From Boston

I think Ruler On Ice started the whole thing. Since you're the only one that seems to be able to get a hold of Ted since he took out Bin Laden, tell him we're just joking around, even McIlroy was just joking but felt he needed some form of redemption, respectfully speaking of course.

Yikes !!!! That was painful. I would choose the golf club over your method if it was done to me and I had a choice.

Ranagulzion

I'm honored.

Laz

In the hole !!!!! And now we'll be leaving golf and taking you to Monmouth where Shackleford will take the lead for 3yo honors.

re: Closing the Door on the 2011 Triple Crown

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 01 Jul 2011 02:00:29 GMT

Fore !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!