Upon Further Review...

re: Upon Further Review...

SlewFan — Thu, 01 May 2008 18:10:48 GMT

Hey, Slew'em'all, If B.B. is the second coming of Foolish Pleasure that's not so bad. Foolish Pleasure did win the derby and ran the greatest filly ever into the ground. Noone else could run with her, but he did. I doubt B.B. is that good.

re: Upon Further Review...

SlewFan — Thu, 01 May 2008 18:04:49 GMT

I think Pyro will do much better in the derby than he did in the Bluegrass. Anything on polytrack, or whatever you call the stuff, you can not take seriously. It's an unnatural surface, and horses aren't bred to run on this stuff. That's why some do well and some don't. Do not worry about Pyro, he will be back to himself on the dirt, you'll see. Whether he's good enough to win, don't know, but he will put in a much better performance than what you saw at Keenland because he's a better horse than that.

re: Upon Further Review...

Slew.em.All — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 22:02:54 GMT

Thx for that side-note Phileboy: If true,that just confirms my long disdain for Dutrow Jr!..What trainer/owner Doesn't bet on their horses? They ALL do!..but to Brag&Boast about "how much" they bet/won is tacky,tacky,tacky..hard to phathom he's related to the other classy Dutrow Horsemen.I'm Hoping the t.v coverage for the Derby keeps an Iso. shot of him when BB wilts in the stretch.lol.. Well,if the name fits?...

re: Upon Further Review...

Slew.em.All — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 20:41:40 GMT

Make their Browneye Blue draynot!..LMAO,thats exactly what I'm talkin' about.

re: Upon Further Review...

draynot — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 18:31:31 GMT

Imma gonna winna bigga bucks againsta Big Browneye. No way this inexperienced pup wins. He beat nothing on a huge speed favoring track under no pressure at all. If he was the second coming the Beyer would have been 112-115. I see a regression back to a 92-97 Beyer and an outta the bucksa finish. Show me the money!!!! His inexperience will show through when he gets pushed bumped and pushed around. I'mma waitin for the odds and post positions b4 I choose the winner but it darn well won't be Browneye.

re: Upon Further Review...

Phileboy — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 17:18:24 GMT

For those already aboard the Big Brown train, there is perhaps a small note of encouragement in so much as in today's New York Times, *** Dutrow, the trainer, confides to Joe Drape, the writer of the piece, how he plans on making a big bet on his horse to win the Derby. This is somewhat significant, I suppose, in so much as Dutrow similarly confided in Monday's paper to the same writer that in the Breeders Cup (2005), he bet $160,000 to win on Saint Liam, another horse he had trained, netting him a PROFIT of $384Gs, or thereabouts. (He won the race by a length and paid $6.80.) There might be a small cautionary note here, that being that Big Brown certainly won't know and won't care that Dutrow is betting on him.

re: Upon Further Review...

Slew.em.All — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 17:12:04 GMT

hey dotcom,"really"!..we shall see..Pyro & Col.John pretenders?come on!..Recapturetheglory? 1 hit wonder!...Behindthebar? couldn't even win at Bay Meadows,he's a synthetic horse...BB and Rtg will finish back-to-back..in 10th & 11th place!...It seems you are easily swayed by "impressive looking" performances.But I would look at the Big picture; Tough,hard-knocking,consistent & versatile types like Pyro,Col.John,CCM,Court Vision and maybe even Visionaire.Not one-dimensional types like BB & Rtg,who I feel will run each other into the ground,not to mention BBJ with his Cali.speed(hope he gets in).Therefore I'm hoping L.Jones comes to his senses & runs his fillies in the Oaks,where they will fair much better.They're not even the 2 best fillies.(talk about derby fever! me thinks he's still sour about Hard Spun)..and watch-out for Adriano,he's my Sleeper horse!..BB & Rtg,I feel,ran their Derby race in their last starts,because they both HAD to-win-to-get-in,and might have peaked too soon!..this is just 1 Dude's opinions in his 32yrs. of thoroughbred encased blissfulness.(thx Pops,R.I.P!)btw..I'm "only" 37.lol...to each his own people..Late!

re: Upon Further Review...

Jason Shandler — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 14:29:31 GMT

Precisionist: Thanks. I know a 5-horse box isnt akways ideal. But in that kind of race, with a lot of longshots, I thought it was the way to go.

re: Upon Further Review...

dotcom — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 15:56:24 GMT

hey slew em all, BB is going to demolish the field...this derby is full of pretenders including colonel john and pyro...Recapturetheglory ran huge and is my exacta horse with visionaire and behindatthebar...That Field bet in KDFW pool 1 is looking good at 3-1 right now

re: Upon Further Review...

Precisionist — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:53:31 GMT

JS - A little shout out for your Blue Grass score, but playing a 5 horse ex box? Kinda cuts into your R.O.I., doesn't it? 8-1 post time odds on Monba + underlay $135 ex payoff showed there were a lot others cashing as well.

re: Upon Further Review...

Johnny — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:06:55 GMT

I've always liked Court Vision and with War Pass on the shelf, and Tomcito without the earnings, I have to decide on my #1 Derby horse all over again. There are a number of others that I'm fond of including Court Vision, Recapturetheglory, Colonel John and Eight Belles, if she goes. I have also become endeared to Pyro.

Recapturetheglory looks to be the pacesetter. He might have some company if Bob Black Jack shows up and Big Brown also wants to mix it up early. They've all shown they can carry their speed, but none of them have ever gone 10 furlongs. If they wear each other out, the others will be ready to pounce.

re: Upon Further Review...

racetrack — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 13:10:30 GMT

All that I here is Synthetic Track.The track is still 80% sand.That is about the same as any Dirt

track anywhere.Check them out.

re: Upon Further Review...

Phileboy — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 03:24:17 GMT

We start with the immutable fact that Big Brown's prep race in the Florida Derby was THE most impressive this year. Racing from the 12-hole, with only two prior starts, he nearly set a stakes record. However, a bit of recent and not-so-recent history is in order. First, two words: "Bellamy Road." He popped a 119 Beyer in the Wood and was being fitted for coronation, but fizzled in Kentucky. Second, no horse KD winner since 1915 (Regret, a filly) has won the Roses off only three prior races. There was a pretty good horse last year who was tried -- Curlin -- who he could only manage third, albeit with a bad trip. The hidden horse here is . . . Court Vision. Too slow? So was Sea Hero, in 1993. (I'm smilling just remembering it!) In both of Court Vision's two preps this year, he made up a ton of ground late, while racing very wide. And in the first of those races, the Fountain of Youth, at Gulfstreatm, NOBODY closed, except him. He followed that up in the Wood, when he missed all the marbles by 1-1/2, when he certainly didn't need the earnings, but needed the conditioning. Need more? (1) He's one of few to have won at Churchill (in last year's Iriquois, a gutsy performance you can see for free on the bloodhorse.com); (2) Garrett Gomez is a Big Money jock -- and he had other options for the race; (3) he worked SUPER on the track this week (4-f 46.1 breezing); (4) he's getting blinkers for the first time; (5) pedigree says "yes" to distance; (5) Bill Mott isn't in the Hall of Fame by accident; (6) he'll be 15-1 or better. I see him sitting on a big, big race. I do have great respect for H.G. Motion and since Adriano (who finished 9th in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream from the 12 post, in which Court Vision ran third) ran a beautiful prep and Prado is a plus, I'll save with him for the win. I'll probably also use Big Brown defensively (in case he turns out to be the second coming of Foolish Pleasure) and Smooth Air, in the exotics, too. Good luck to all! -- Philip

re: Upon Further Review...

Slew.em.All — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 18:46:19 GMT

Big Brown will NOT win the Derby,even with War Pass out of the mix.Save yourselves some Grief,Heartache & money people.Do you honestly believe he can win with Only 3 starts?..nope!..Toss him Out! Especially as a short priced favorite.Look elsewhere for a winner..Mark my words:BB will give up the Ghost at the top of the stretch!..There's plenty of value in others.

re: Upon Further Review...

Billy D. — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 18:13:22 GMT

I guess with War Pass's defection from the Derby he inadvertanly saved his supporters a lot of $$$. War Pass wasn't going to win the Derby anyway, let alone hit the board. I told everyone before, his breeding suggests speed, he's a miler at best.

re: Upon Further Review...

Johnny — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 16:06:14 GMT

War Pass is injured. I'm saddened but as long as the horse will be OK, that's the important thing and not racing. He's off the KY Derby trail and the Triple Crown.

re: Upon Further Review...

draynay — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 13:50:50 GMT

This is a short not to all of you Pyro and War Pass fans. Pyro looked good a few months ago and War Pass a year ago. But folks it's almost May and its all about the NOW horse. War Pass does not belong in this race! He has not trained since the Wood and he is still a tired horse. He has never won at a 1 1/8th and now you think he will do well going even longer ??? If the owners force that poor horse into the Derby he will be ruined. Pyro ? His last 3 races tell you he is not a Derby winner. Deny it all you want but he has not broken a 95 Beyer and had 3 races to do it. Sorry guys but you do not throw a clunker like he did than win the Derby...save yourself some money and move on your not married to these horses...move on.

re: Upon Further Review...

draynay — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 02:57:44 GMT

Your still trying to make a case for another horse in the win circle? Big Brown wins his first ever dirt race with a 104 Beyer off a very limited workout schedule and then is entered into a G1 race following a couple of workouts and dominates. Now the horse has had some beautiful full 5 furlong workouts and is fully rested and ready for the Derby and your still looking around for the probable winner ???

re: Upon Further Review...

Dooge — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 13:39:39 GMT

Pyro the best 3 yr. old? Maybe he was in January/February but this is April and he's been passed. Go ahead and bet him in the Derby, it will leave more value to the winner. Gayego won the Ark. Derby going away? I must have had a bad connection as from what I saw he didn't even have a "clear" win. Wasn't the margain of victory under a length? Oaklawn has always been a speed favoring track. Z Fortune was the best horse in that race running wide and making up ground on a track that leans toward speed (which incidently CD does not). Gayego's improving at the right time but let's be realistic, his breeding doesn't suggest getting 1 1/4 and he'll be softened even more against classier runners. Maybe he's this years Hard Spun at best, more likely not. You got to be kidding when you say it's tough to throw out War Pass and Bob Black Jack. War Pass will not get the distance and neither will Bob Black Jack. Visionaire may rally for a piece but will not win. If Big Brown runs back to his last he wins. All the others have to improve signifigantly to beat that. If he doesn't and the Colonel takes to the dirt it will come down to him, Z Fortune,and Monba for the win and wide open to fill the exotics. Bombs away!! Please bet down Pyro, Gayego, and War Pass for the win especially in the exotics, i'll gladly take your money.

re: Upon Further Review...

bomber bill — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 03:20:45 GMT

pyro is the best 3 year old. The only way he loses the derby is if his jockey blows it. war pass, big brown, and recapturetheglory will Quit. Bob black jack should stay at santa anita, he will come in dead last. Synthetic tracks are garbage, the bluegrass means nothing. It's got people thinking a horse like bob black jack has a shot in the derby. colonel john is scary but he's coming from california, on to the dirt, and going farther than he ever has. and he has to deal with 20 other horses. maybe, but i won't bet on it. watch out for eight belles she is a big, long filly who should love the extra distance. If tomicito has enough money to get in, look out for him, the derby will be his third of a layoff and he should love churchill.

re: Upon Further Review...

Matthew W — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 01:06:17 GMT

Gayego's "slow" final 1/4 should be tempered by the fact that he pressed the strong pace throughout in the Ark Derby, a race which has represented well in recent runnings....he pressed a strong pace--opened up and HE WON---going away----this is a Derby sleeper, at, say, 13, 14 to one....I see only "Brownie" and "The Colonel" as going off UNDER 10-1 in this years Derby----Visionaire, Gayego, Bob Black Jack, War Pass and Pyro---all tough to throw out-----Big Brown is the enigma!---you don't know if his seasoning will matter---will he take back and how well can he rate?? We know Col John will relax---I don't think Corey needs to worry about the pace---this years Derby looks "middle move city"---Corey needs to stay wide and back----he'll give you that 1/2 mile drive which most of these don't have----I think he's your winner, with Brownie a close second, maybe Gayego, War Pass, Visionaire, Bob Black Jack for third.....Colonel John has the look of a Derby winner.....

re: Upon Further Review...

Ranagulzion — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 23:37:01 GMT

No winner of the Blue Grass Stakes has won the Derby in many many years and the trend should continue. Both Pyro and Cool Coal Man will rebound in the Derby but neither of them should catch the big two, War Pass and Big Brown unless the early pace is as blistering as in 2001 when Monarcos won in near record time. If the early fractions are suicidal then the race will break down and any number can play.

re: Upon Further Review...

Kennedy — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 16:08:05 GMT

Another way of looking at the importance of a final sharp prep race is this.

All the Derby winners since 1996 have either won or finished within 3 lengths of the winner in their last prep. Even Giamcomo, although 4th, was just two lengths behind the winner. He still ran a decently sharp race. Much better than say Storm in May ran when second by 10 1/2 in last years Ark Derby.

From 1996 to the present 83 horses have run in the Derby despite not having won or finished within 3 lengths of the winner in their last prep. None of them won and only 5 hit the frame.

re: Upon Further Review...

DickBee — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 15:36:10 GMT

If Big Brown gets a good post position it is over. Colonel John will make a run at him and someone with some early pace will be on the ticket. War Pass, possibly Bob Black Jack. But watch a Smooth Air, Visionaire, Pyro or Court Vision because of the extra distance end up on the ticket. There are a few numbers above but there is your exacta, trifecta and super above. I like 1. Big Brown 2. Colonel John 3-4 Box War Pass, Smooth Air & Pyro, and you got the Super. $12.00 bet; and hopefully with all the money thrown at the Derby you got a $1000+ super payoff. Do the same for the Tri and you got a few hundered dollar payoff, and even that BB/CJ exacta will pay you $40-$50. Just make bigger bets and you will win a lot more money. Good luck to all!!

re: Upon Further Review...

the wiz — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 15:27:16 GMT

Pyro has yet to equal or even come close to his top Beyer figs as a 2 yr. old even if you throwout his last race. The Derby is all about the "now" horse who is and has improved with a bit of maturity. I'm throwing him out on the win end. Gayego came home too slow for me, his last final quarter in 25.7 doesn't cut it. No horse in my memory has won the derby coming in off a final quarter over 25.6 and i'm holding to that. I'm throwing him out on the win end as well. Smooth Air was slowing badly his last 1/16th was in 13.4 and that's not going to cut it either. I'm throwing him out on the win end as well. War Pass just does not have the distance capabilities and Tale Of Ekati is too slow. Court Vision is too slow in the initial stages for me to consider a win candidate. Visionaire finishes nicely but leaves himself too much to do. Monba needs to get faster but I love his breeding. Recapturetheglory is interesting but I question the breeding there. That leaves Big Brown, Colonel John, and Z Fortune for now. I'll wait to see how they move over the track at CD. I am dissapointed that the connections of Big Brown have chosen to keep him in FLA and not give him time over the CD strip. Colonel John and Z Fortune are coming into this race the right way and that's on the way up. I think there will be surprises filling out the exotics and I'm going to be there to cash in on them as always. Happy handicapping!! I'll see you at the window right after the race.