Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Tiz Herself — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 19:46:29 GMT

Sidney's Candy's race record 17-7-4-1 $1,104,810, average distance winning 7.85f (5.5F-9F), dosage index 1.86 and Center of Distribution 0.50. NTR Setter. Stud fee $15k

Twirling Candy's race record 10-7-5-0-1 $744,900. Average winning distance was 7.92F (6.5F - 9F) and dosage index 2.64 and Center of Distribution 0.80. Record setter in the Malibu Stakes. Stud fee $15k

Misremembered 13-6-5-0 $1,306,709. Average winning distance 8.75F (8f - 10f) dosage index 2.43 and COD 0.50. Track record setter. Stud fee $7500

Add Chocolate Candy to that, even though he is not standing in Kentucky, his race record 21-4-3-1 $632,205. Winning between 8 and 9F. Dosage Index 2.08 CD 0.70. Fee $2500 CDN...

I can't wait to see how these four do.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Ranagulzion — Sun, 18 Dec 2011 03:13:53 GMT

Carlos,

Handicapping 101? (LOL) Perhaps back in 2010 you could boast but over the last year or so the signs are that you need a refreshers course my friend.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Carlos in Cali — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 20:22:59 GMT

KY VET

I don't think anyone believes QR or UM weren't good horses,they simply were not as dominant when going 10f or in UM's case 8.5f+.

QR was unbeatable @ speed favoring Gulfstream Park up to 9f vs average horses and he proved it as 3 & 4yo.As a 3yo I said he wouldn't win both the Travers/JCGC because of the level playing field,better competition and the 10f distance.As a 4yo I warned people to open their eyes and see that Blame catching him @ 9f did not look good for him going into the BC Classic where he would get serious pace pressure from other front runners.He finished up the track like I said he would.

I had serious doubts about UM getting 9f+ right after he won the BCJ mainly because of his sire Indian Charlie.In both of his races going 9f+ he tired badly and finished up the track in the BC Classic like I said he would.

Both of these horses had the highest speed figures in their class.But,some people get too caught-up in #'s while ignoring the obvious AND that's how I make money betting against folks who don't pay attention. It's called handicapping 101.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

KY VET — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 02:29:52 GMT

LOOK APPLE......people are talking alot of nonsense on here.....and people just let it go..pletcher cant train? come on! do you know his training methods? He sets records but cant train....why do you say that? Or ap indy is bad breeding...or quality road was a bad horse....or uncle mo was an avg horse.......People on here are so IGNORANT, someone has to point these things out....dont get me wrong, these are the people who i earn my living betting against. im glad they dont know what they are talking about....i mean what can you say when a breeding guy(coldfacts) loves DAMS that were not good enough to race, over great racemares....no logic! Someone should tell facts man that unraced mares usually dont race because they have problems...most problems conformation based....

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Forbidden Apple — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 14:58:35 GMT

Am I the only person who finds KYVet to be obnoxious and hurtful? On the last blog you called everyone stupid for not recognizing Quality Road as a 1 1/4 mile horse. Sure Quality Road might have been able to win at 10 furlongs, but only if he was running against the Green Monkey and a handful of other 50k claimers. Open your eyes man and please stop drinking the Pletcher punch.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

trackjack — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 18:03:47 GMT

Alex's Big Fan:

Great take on UM and ST. We do need to lighten up on this blog at times. A "High Hoof" is a great way to part. If they have a contest to name Mo's first foal, I would submit "Hoof Hearted".

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Smoking Baby — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 15:18:37 GMT

Alex's Big Fan:

"High Hoof" YOU KILL ME!!! Thank you. Laughing is always a good way to begin one's day.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Bob from Boston — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 14:42:16 GMT

Did anyone watch New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's press conference regarding killing the sport in NJ? Is it true that he was eating a Big Mac and fries during it?

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Smoking Baby — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 13:54:12 GMT

tcc

I'm sure Coldfacts is talking about Eoin Harty. Harty had Anthony's Cross and yes, he did go south after February or March. Aside from a few summer breezes at Churchill he's been AWOL.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

NASCAR PRO — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 13:45:00 GMT

OK its Out of Bounds the one that has the potential to be no 1 of the colts in California according to Coldfacts.Lets see how it plays out.This prediction is more believable then the bold ones made on this blog by more than one poster on UM.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Tiz Herself — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 05:01:47 GMT

It will be neat for sure to see how Twirling Candy and Sidney's Candy in their first few years when their kids race. Look forward to seeing how Candy Ride does as a sire of sires.

Have their 2009 siblings on my stable watch, too.

Sweet Swap is full brother to Sidney's Candy and has won.

Treasure Ride has not started but he is full to Twirling Candy.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

KY VET — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 04:20:42 GMT

IS THIS THE FICTION SECTION? I read this STUFF, and i shake my head.......Too many GENIUS statements to mention....LIKE..SYDNEYS CANDY ISNT GAME? ITS called being a speed horse!! He runs like 46 for 4 furlongs. You people keep slamming QUALITY ROAD! You dont know this game , if you dont understand that horse was great..You think horses that go off form,means they were not great! COLDCUTS think he knows todd pletcher's PROGRAM? It sets records...It should be obvious to everyone, that COLDCUTS is just a CONTRARIAN.......he tears down the top everything......LOOK PEOPLE, the fact that holy bull didnt win the derby, or bellamy road, or quality road lost the classic .or sidneys candy lost...DOESNT MEAN THEY WERE NOT GREAT!! HORSES GET WORSE!! RACING DOES THAT!! Sidneys candy isnt the same horse! quality road ran beyers over 120! you cant figure out that if you run a 120, that even if you tire badly, a 110 is great? You BREEDING PEOPLE SEE WHAT YOU WANT TO SEE! If a horse loses, YOU SAY IT WAS because he can go 1 1/4 or some bull......You people ACTUALLY cant figure out DROSSELMEYER ran a104 beyer in the classic....thats good alw horse time! Everybody ran bad!!! thats how most upsets happen...alot of tired horses ran bad.....COLDCUTS cant figure out the horse that ran a 111 beyer same day, should not even be considered top 3 yr old....And by the way...everybody keeps talking about the big heart SHACKELFORD has! he loses like every time, wins a very slow preakness, why not save the HUGE heart award for a horse that loves to win? OK..... now go back to hyping the 75 to 80 beyer derby PROSPECTS!!!!!!!

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Alex'sBigFan — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 03:30:48 GMT

Mo & Thirsty:

Stay Thirsty: "This is the end of the road Mo, we gotta part ways." choking back tears.

Uncle Mo: "Gee Thirsty it's been a swell run with you this year. You are the best stablemate a guy could have."

Thirsty: "I'm worried about Uncle Mikey, he's gonna miss you a lot. You go make some nice babies for us Mo at the farm."

Mo: "Don't worry Thirsty, you go on. You've still got a lot of running to do and a legacy to build. After all, you are Bernie's son, you are a blueblood."

Thirsty: "Aw, shucks. Bye big fella. Stay well."

Mo: "You mind Uncle Toddy, Thirsty and I will try to understand Uncle Mike and english when he visits to hear how you are doing. Go on, my best buddy."

They give each other a "high hoof."

And so ends the 2011 saga of Mo and Thirsty. I thank Mike Repole for giving us both of them and hope for good things from both of them in the future.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

skyfire — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 01:00:00 GMT

Wow, Gun Bow; guess you are not booking a mare to Sidney any time soon!!!

Seriously, I look forward to reading your posts because you are so thoughtful and detailed in what you think...who do you like as a newly retired sire, and how do you compare Twirling to Sidney?

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

tcc — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:59:06 GMT

Cold Facts Im not laughing but am still wondering WHO,your talking about to Forbidden Apple or is it a secret.

who 12 Dec 2011 6:11 PM.

I hope he does not go out of bounds with this colt.

Coldfacts 12 Dec 2011 8:58 AM.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Householder — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 00:03:20 GMT

Looks like Royal Delta's full brother Empire Way will be back in the Cash Call.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

NASCAR PRO — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 23:11:54 GMT

Cold Facts Im not laughing but am still wondering WHO,your talking about to Forbidden Apple or is it a secret.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Alex'sBigFan — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 22:39:05 GMT

Thanks for the heads up on these two Jason, they sound like good ones. I hope Timely Tally doesn't go for the TKO in the Timely Writer prep this year though!!!

Toby Keith had I believe a two yr. old that came in second in a race this weekend, Reckless Jerry. A spotted gray son of Flashy Bull was in the race too I believe. Toby was at the race as well, go Toby!!!!!

Nice to see a lot of the crop returning for next year, it's about time they all don't run off to the breeding shed. We need stars with staying power. A few more weeks and it's Jan. 1 and all the 2 yr. olds will turn 3. Bring on the Triple Crown!!!!!!!!!

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

GunBow — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 22:37:32 GMT

Coldfacts:

Even though I'm a SoCal homer, I tried telling Jason and Ranagulzion that Sideny's Candy was simply not an elite horse.

Over the last two years, I had seen Sidney's Candy run in person a number of times. Basically, Sidney's Candy beat up on a crop of Cali horses that, with the exception of Lookin at Lucky who was running mainly out-of-state, was mediocre at best.

For me, the Mervyn LeRoy cemented my impression of Sidney's Candy. After that race I declared that Sidney was unlikely to be successful in elite competition mainly because he didn't offer much resistance in the stretch when challenged. If a horse was able to remain within striking distance of Sidney entering the far turn, Sidney would come back to that horse in the stretch.

The first signs of Sidney's proclivity for surrendering leads in the stretch was last year's Swaps when Skipshot, of all horses, was able to nail him on the wire. Then this year, Crown of Thorns, by no means a win-machine, was able to stalk Sidney in the Mervyn LeRoy and then reel him in the stretch. By the time of the American Cap', I was confident betting Sidney to cough up a lead, and when Ryehill Dreamer came up to his flank in the stretch, I knew Ryehill would go on to win.

Switching to Pletcher was not going to make Sidney any gamer. This was clear in the Shadwell when Sidney appeared to be going well into the stretch only to give up the lead meekly to both Get Stormy and Gio Ponti.

Listen, against the likes of Indian Firewater and Macias, Sidney's Candy could look absolutely brilliant(or the Santa Anita Derby when Lookin at Lucky has a disasterous trip), but put an elite horse on his flank, and he was almost certain to lose the lead late.

I know this reads like a brutal indictment of Sideny, but it comes from someone that rooted for him everytime I saw him run.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

GunBow — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 22:17:15 GMT

The Hollywood Starlet was yet another major stakes at Hollywood Park that proved to be bitter sweet.

After all the tragedy at the track from Thanksgiving weekend, I was really hoping for an uplifting running of the Starlet.

While I did not feel Wemissfrankie should have been such a heavy favorite and didn't expect her to win, I did expect more than a non-threatening 4th place finish. Of course, after the race we learned why she ran such a moderate race; she was running with a fracture. Her 4th place finish certainly looks alot more impressive in this light. But whatever the result of the Starlet, it's sad to see her forced to the sidelines.

I thought Killer Graces was really live in the Starlet. I was on track for her win in an overnight stakes over the summer, and really liked her professionalism and grit. And, given she is trained by Hollendorfer and has a similar appearance, I tagged her "Little Blind Luck".

My enthusiasm for Killer Graces certainly waned after mediocre efforts at Del Mar and Fresno, but her runner-up effort in the Sharp Cat suggested she was rounding up to her best form at her favorite track. Given a target in the Starlet, Little Blind Luck was able to keep plugging away through the stretch and win at a distance some thought she couldn't get.

While Killer Graces made for a good personal result, my overall impression of the Starlet is muted. I just don't think this was a strong rendition of the race, and have trouble seeing any of the Starlet horses being competitive at the national stage. With Wemissfrankie out for an extended period, my gut tells me Charm the Maker will end up being best from this group, but I an dubious that she can repeat the success of recent Starlet horses like Blind Luck, Turbulent Descent, and Zazu.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

GunBow — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 22:02:14 GMT

Forbidden Apple + Coldfacts;

I was at Hollywood Park for Out of Bounds' maiden victory.

He was a physical standout. He looked super before, during, and after the race. I loved how he looked walking out of the winners circle and up the stretch when heading back to the barn. I turned to my friend and said "the West Coast has a new 'it' horse".

Physically, Out of Bounds looks very much like Etched, but might end up being taller and bigger if not so already. Out of Bounds is tall and leggy, but has strong, square shoulders that give him the look of a horse that can get a distance. The breeding suggests at least 9 furlongs against elite competition.

The actual race was so-so. I liked that he showed enough speed to remain within striking distance from where he could then wear down the leaders. He raced greeenly down the stretch, lugging his head in and not going by the leaders with as much authority as I think he could have. The final time of 123 and final eighth of 12 and 4 were tepid, so I wouldn't expect a big figure(Comma to the Top ran 121 and change Sunday).

My concern is the Harty, categorizing Out of Bounds as a late-running distance horse, instructs the jockey to take the horse well off the pace in his route debut. Especially on the Santa Anita dirt speedway, I don't see Out of Bounds as a late-runner. To me, Out of Bounds seems more of a grinder, a horse that really doesn't have brilliant acceleration but one that can gallop his competition into the ground. I don't see him having the turn of foot to be able to make up alot of ground in a short period of time, something necessary as a closer.

Hopefully, when Out of Bounds stretches out, which should be in his next start, he is hustled a little out of the gate and given a stalking trip, either pressing the leaders or at the front of the 2nd(middle) pack.

Hopefully, Anthony's Cross provided a good learning experience. I never saw Anthony's Cross as a horse with much acceleration of brilliance. His strength, in my opinion, was his ability to press a solid pace and then grind his way through the stretch. The style proved successful to Anthony's Cross in winning the Bob Lewis, but then in the Santa Anita Derby he was taken back, at one point along the backstretch he was next to last, and asked to make one run. Maybe Harty believed that the horse couldn't win in Kentucky as a pace presser, but Anthony's Cross simply didn't have the acceleration needed to make up a large deficit quickly.

I guess if there is a horse to model Out of Bounds style on it is Etched. Maybe OoB shouldn't be asked for quite so much speed, but like Etched I see him best when able to combine grinding speed and endurance.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Householder — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 17:48:39 GMT

I thought Comma To The Top looked pretty good sprinting yesterday. He put away Indian Firewater pretty easily in an allowance. Nice to see the gelding able to race after injury. Thank goodness they won't have to race him at Hollywood Park anymore which has been very hard on horses this meet.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Zen's Auntie — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 14:01:17 GMT

"4th on 3 legs"... The spirit and grit of the Thoroughbred is why they can capture our hearts, just so much courage, too much sometimes it seems. I hope shes ok.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Coldfacts — Mon, 12 Dec 2011 13:58:38 GMT

Forbidden Apple,

I was hoping for a better price but it appears that everybody saw what I saw in his debut race. I did not have the luxury of seeing the race live. However, I found it on the Bloodhorse web site. I agree that his rider did not press on him and his margin of victory is deceptive. The announcer stated that he was cheating and still won so it was obvious to him and by virtue of his announcement the secret is out. I do not know if you watched the gallop out? His rider had an extremely difficult time pulling him up and returning to the winner enclosure he appeared to be returning from a jog and not a 7F race completed in 1:23.17 . He is a very big colt with a beautiful head. His action is very fluent for a big horse and this makes his speed deceptive. A big, classy horse with energy efficient strides is a danger to all. Unlike Etched he will have no problems staying the derby distance. His works leading up to the race reflected a 59. He does not appear to be a 59 colt as he has the running style of his dam. The race appears to have taken nothing out of him and I hope he will be tried against the big boys next at a distance in excess of 8F.

I know So Brilliant, Secret Circle and Creative Cause are highly thought of in CA. I am of the opinion that barring injury he will be the top colt in CA. He certainly has all the assets of a top class router. I know this statement will gain me much laughter. I was able to get a close up view of this colt from the video and he appears to be carrying a lot of is weight. He therefore does not appear to be in top racing shape. When he achieves full racing shape he will be taking no prisoner.

I have one problem with this colt and that is his trainer. For reasons unknown his horses are very inconsistent. I predicted that Anthony’s Cross would be a flop after his 2011 Robert Lewis Gll victory. He started next in the SA Derby and did not make the board. He has disappeared since. I have no confidence in his program because of the inconsistency of his runners. I hope he does not go out of bounds with this colt.

re: Wilkes Has Two to Watch For

Tiz Herself — Sun, 11 Dec 2011 22:29:19 GMT

Read that Frankie came out of the Starlet with a leg fracture :( Poor girl. Hope she recovers. Not sure her chances to race, but to be a broodmare or something :(