The Future is Now

re: The Future is Now

Footlick — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 15:46:18 GMT

Happy New Year to you too Billy's Empire, and to all the bloggers.

re: The Future is Now

Your Only Friend — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 18:02:53 GMT

Any way you look at it.....Future wager is a bad bet.......Horses mature differently.....those that were great horse as two year old will face newcomers.....others are taking their time growing up.

re: The Future is Now

Coldfacts — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 06:45:50 GMT

Jacob Bratcher,

Street Boss from Street Cry’s first crop was 3rd in the Breeder’s Cup as well. I consider his biggest winner to date to be from his second crop and that is Shocking who won the 2009 Melbourne Cup. Interestingly, Shocking and Derby/Traverse winner Street Sense were bred along the same cross. Street Sense dam was sired by a son of Northern Dancer and Shocking ‘s dam was sired by a grandson of Northern Dancer.

re: The Future is Now

Your Only Friend — Wed, 28 Dec 2011 02:30:50 GMT

Making future bet at this time is like lighting match to your $100 bill.......ridiculous bet at any odds........if required to make bet , it would be on Union Rags......but toooooo many things can happen between now and first Saturday in May.......ask any trainer or owner.

re: The Future is Now

predict — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 23:37:36 GMT

If you are cosidering Timely Tally as a futures bet, don't. Latest from Wilkes:

“Motor City got a break after the Iroquois and he’s just come back into training,” said Wilkes. “I haven’t planned on anything for him yet, but he should be ready sometime around the end of February. Timely Tally, on the other hand, will be done for a while. He has a tendon issue. It’s not career-threatening, but I’m trying to work out now how much time I’ll have to give him.”

re: The Future is Now

Weekend — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 19:16:54 GMT

Ah, I see some things never change. Happy Holidays everyone. Happy New Year also. Maybe the new year will start bringing Jason and the rest of the clan better luck betting. Talk to you next year.

Billy's Empire

re: The Future is Now

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 00:11:24 GMT

Coldfacts,

Do not listen to the people who are making jokes about Out Of Bounds. This colt is still green and has plenty of ability to work with in 2012. I rarely score with a Harty trained horse, but this one looks like a budding star.

Alex'sBigFan,

My baby is doing well, she is already 9 months old. I only brought her to the races one time over the summer. Next year my goal is to bring her to her first Travers day. I need to find a babysitter so that I can go and watch War Horse.

Consortium finished second recently, he should keep on improving and make some noise at Gulfstream before the winter is over. In my opinion most horses do not need lasix. Ask any top trainer how many horses in the barn are true bleeders. The answer would be very few, so why are horses subjected to race day drugs?

You mentioned commissioner as a horses name, a commissioner is what horse racing needs now! There are far to many race tracks in different states with different rules and regulations. The sport of horse racing needs a common rule book and a ruling commissioner. Instead we have a group of individuals here in NY who want to end Dutrow's career. And we have another group of cowards in KY who rudely ended the career of John Veitch. Veitch gets a death sentence for his job, yet Todd Pletcher walks free and assumes zero responsiblity for the health and welfare of his own horse. And now in CA I just heard about possible hedge betting. Hedge betting is bad for racing, I hope Betfair keeps their idea in England.

re: The Future is Now

Age of Reason — Mon, 26 Dec 2011 18:43:43 GMT

Hey Coldfacts,

I found another Tafel-owned Street Sense colt to watch on the 2012 Derby Trail. His name is Afford. Like In The Beat, Afford's also out of a Derby-winning mare (one of Tafel's homebreds,this time by Unbridled). Just search for him in Bloodhorse's search bar and include the words "Maiden Watch", that's where I found it. He won by 7 1/2 at Hawthorne on 11/26 and is trained by Greg Geier, who has strings at Hawthorne and Arlington but I don't know where Geier's winter base is at. Internal and closing fractions were both decent,with final time of 6f in 1:12.24, but take that with a grain of salt because of course Hawthorne isn't exactly known for its blazing fast times. I confess to being a fan of all things Street Cry, and won't be surprised by any number of future Derby winners his line produces. (How many other stallions do you know who've taken home the BC Juvenile, Kentucky Derby, Breeders' Cup Classic, Travers, BC Distaff and Sun Chariot (Eng-1) all in one crop?!)

re: The Future is Now

Coldfacts — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 15:55:27 GMT

Ranagulzion

Subject to correction Animal kingdom was not listed amongst the betting interest in Vegas for the Derby as a 2YO. Therefore a wager on an unlisted horse @150-1 would have landed you with the Derby winner Animal kingdom. Any future wager at this point should include one on unlisted horses. This is the point I was trying to make and evidently did a poor job.

The Kentucky Klown is no antagonist of mine. He merely takes pleasure in attacking me and if that floats his boat more power to him.

I see my horse Riveting Reason is entered in the Sir Beaufort Stake on turf. His dam line is all turf and he works 58.4 recently. His dam race on turf; his sire Known Fact was a Champion 3yo colt in England (turf); 2nd dam sire Dynaformer is a dominant turf sire. He is going to be a gigantic odds and as usual I will be using him in all potions as if he hit the board the exotics will be quit lucrative

Slew,

You took me to task for citing that Triple Crown winners are poor broodmare sires. Well Centralintelligence run in the 7F Malibu on Monday. His unraced dam was sired by TC winner Seattle Slew. His sole start on dirt was an impressive 31/2L victor of a 6F race in 1:08.19 at SA. He returns to the dirt in the Malibu and I am going to put your dissenting views to the test and make a wager. I am hoping your assessment is better than mine because if not I will be submitting a reimbursement claim.

re: The Future is Now

Ranagulzion — Sat, 24 Dec 2011 15:31:25 GMT

predict,

Summer Front certainly looks like a very good colt indeed. Being by War Front he'll have to answer both the dirt and distance questions as memory of Soldat is still very fresh. However his pedigree on the dam side suggests that he'll stay. I liked the way he disposed of Finale and Excaper with consumate ease and won with a ton in hand. If he takes to dirt he'll be very near the top of my Derby watch list for sure ...being from the Danzig branch of Northern Dancer is a bonus.

re: The Future is Now

Coldfacts — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 20:26:22 GMT

Predict,

When Animal Kingdom came home in 39 plus in the Spiral I was convinced he had to business being in the Derby. I was proven wrong. I now have an open mind about the chances of horses that excel on Turf & Synthetic surfaces. I have reviewed all his races and he appears professional. The early fractions in all his races were pretty moderate so it difficult to determine if he will be competitive when having to close in 45 & 46 tractions. Any horses produced from an unraced mare and shows such ability merits following.

re: The Future is Now

predict — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 08:38:21 GMT

The more I think about this future bet thing the more I want to go to Vegas and actually make a bet, as foolish as it seems to me to bet on a race that is close to impossible to pick at this time. But, I have become,for lack of a better term, Draynayed, with a horse already. Draynayed, to anyone who follows the blogs here, would be to say you are beyond obsessed with a horse, and it's chances to win a race. And I coin this term with nothing but respect for someone who holds his opinion so highly and mean no disrespect whatsoever. The horse that I have convinced myself is the greatest horse since Secretariat is the horse I mentioned earlier, Summer Front. Even though he hasn't run on dirt yet, it is only a matter of time before he does, proving to all that he can. When I watch the way this horse runs and the way he looks I am reminded of the great Riva Ridge. I am fairly certain that he has the heart of that great champion and imagine it was passed on through his broodmare's heart lineage. I guess ultimately one could say this lineage actually descends to the greatest horse of all time, Man O' War. So I am thinking if I can get 300-1 on a future bet on the horse that will win this year's Kentucky Derby I should hop on a plane to Vegas and do it. Jason, thanks for making me consider a bet I never would have made in the past. Win or lose it has been fun thinking about it.

re: The Future is Now

Ranagulzion — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 22:30:15 GMT

Coldfacts,

Now that you're flowing with professorial wisdom, please tell us what is the lesson on how to wager sucker bets, from Animal Kingdom's 2011 Derby win. I may be slow of learning on this one but all I comprehend is that bettors burnt a lot of cash and the bookies laughed all the way to the bank. Teach me on this one my friend.

Your antagonizer KY VET showed his solidarity with KINGKAPPER's folly by bragging about a futures's cash-in on Street Sense in Derby 2007. With their brand of "hedging" philosophy do you think that he was able to keep his bonanza? (LOL)

re: The Future is Now

Coldfacts — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 15:04:59 GMT

On the subject of future bets I would spent my mythical bank roll of $100 on five betting interest @ $20 each. This is a big sucker bet and consequently traditional selection criteria should be disregarded.

Take Charge Indy - He was produced by a member of the million dollar broodmare club. No million dollar club member has been associated with a Derby winner. His dam was runner up in the Kentucky Oaks. The top three finishers in the history of Kentucky Oaks are MIA on the Derby winner’s chart. He is well bred for the Derby distance and his dam falls into a category that is due to produce a Derby winner.

Alpha - He was produced by a Nijinsky mare and those mares are rarely seen as first dams. Nijinsky sired 1986 Derby winner Ferdinand and a win for Alpha would allow him to join the great Native Dancer who was the last sire and broodmare sire of a Derby winner. Native Dancer sire 1966 Derby winner Kauai King and two years earlier was dam sire of 1964 Derby winner the great Northern Dancer. Alpha is also well bred for the Derby distance. Both Native Dancer and Nijinsky were great horses. Nijinsky carried the Native Dancer blood in his veins via sire Northern Dancer. Nijinsky was so good that it’s a good bet that he can duplicate the achievement of the Grey Ghost.

Out Of Bounds: What an Odd name! What About Unbridled Cat as a name? He was also produced by a member of the million dollar broodmare club. In addition his dam is a Breeder Cup winner. No million dollar club member or Breeders Cup winning mare is associated with a Derby. He is bred for speed and stamina. Breeders Cup winning mares are due for Derby success.

In The Beat: He was sired by a Derby winner out of a broodmare sired by a Derby winner. Both sire and dam sire are from the RAN line the most powerful force in Triple Crown history. Belmont winner and Breeder Cup Classic 3rd place finisher Ruler On Ice was bred along a similar cross. His sire Roman Ruler is a grandson of Mr. Prospector (RAN) and his dam sire Saratoga Six is son of Alydar (RAN) His pedigree profile has probably never won the Derby. The 10F success at the classic level by both sire and dam sire makes him an appealing prospect.

Unlisted Horses: I doubt a colt produced from a Brazilian stallion out of a German broodmare was amongst the listed betting interest in 2010. Animal Kingdom emerged to win the 2011 Derby and provided a major lesson in how to wager sucker bets.

re: The Future is Now

Coldfacts — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 14:11:14 GMT

Predict,

Listed below are the winners of Triple Crown races from RAN sire line crossed with the Northern Dancer broodmare line:

Kentucky Derby

Street Sense

Monarchos

Fusaichi Pegasus

Thunder Gulch

Preakness:

Lookin At Lucky

Curlin

Hansel

Belmont

Drosselmeyer

Summer Bird

Jazil

Birdstone

Empire Maker

Sarava

Victory Gallop

Thunder Gulch

Hansel

The Northern Dancer sire line has been associated with the winners of 16 Triple Crown races. None of these winners were produced from broodmares sired by RAN line stallions. The RAN sire line has been associated with the winners of 47 Triple Crown races.

Union Rags is a cross of the Northern Dancer sire with the RAN broodmare line. His task is to be the first winner of a Triple Crown race produced by this cross that has work so well in the reverse. The chances of this occurring are very remote as the AP Indy sire line is surging.

re: The Future is Now

predict — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 22:11:02 GMT

I wonder how many of those RAN sire line winners of the Kentucky Derby were bred to mares of the Northern Dancer sire lines? If I'm not mistaken, that combination has produced some very good colts.

re: The Future is Now

JorgeG — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 21:03:57 GMT

In The Beat is 1-x : La Troienne family. There´s you Derby winner.

re: The Future is Now

mz — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 18:54:54 GMT

Coldfacts: look up the Epsom Derby over the past few decades. Look up the French Derby (Prix de Jockey Club) over the past few decades. Look up the Australian Derby equivalents over the past few decades. That's all I meant. Not all Derbies are run in Kentucky.

(Argh!)

re: The Future is Now

Ranagulzion — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 17:52:04 GMT

Coldfacts,

Bravo buddy!! Those two posts were excellent. I'll be keeping an eye on In The Beat. Notwithstanding I think I'm prepared to go down with the Northern Dancer "ship" on the Kentucky Derby trail in 2012.

KY VET,

Your luck with Street Sense offers cold comfort to KINGKAPPER'S ignorance.

re: The Future is Now

Coldfacts — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 16:37:10 GMT

MZ,

“Coldfacts: Northern Dancer is an "inconsistent" sire line for the Derby? There are more Derbies than are dreamt of in your philosophy< Horatio ... especially the GrandDaddy of them all in Epsom. Ack! (I repeat: Ack Ack ... and didn't he start his HOY year about this time in California?)”

Pardon me if I failed to understand your post in its totality. My response might not be as informed as it should be as it is based on your opening sentence.

The Northern Dancer sire line and by this I mean Northern Dancer and his sons, grandsons etc., tasted Derby success in 1986 with Ferdinand sired by his son Nijinsky. Between 1986 and 2011, Three of Northern Dancer’s grandsons sired Derby winners i.e., Boundary, Summer Squall and Polish Navy. In the aforementioned 25 year period this sire line produced three Derby winners, an average of one every 8 years.

The Raise A Native sires tested Derby success in 1969 with Majestic Prince sire by Raise A Native. Between 1969 and 2011 the sons, grandsons, great grandsons and great, great grandsons of Raise A Native sired the winners of 16 Derbies. In the aforementioned 42 year period the RAN sire produced a Derby winner, an average of approximately one every 3 years. If the two dominant sire lines are compared from 1986, the Northern Dancer sire line accounts for 4 Derby winners while the RAN sire Line accounts for 14 winners.

I consider a sire line that has produced four Derby winners in 25 years at an average of one every 8 year, inconsistent. Storm Cat is a grandson of Northern Dancer and he supplied the breeding industry with over 100 stallions. It therefore cannot be concluded that the ND sire line is out numbered.

re: The Future is Now

Coldfacts — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 13:57:37 GMT

Jacob Bratcher,

Many thanks for bringing In The Beat to our attention. I did some research on the colt or more appropriate the pony since that is the physical statue he projects. He is rather small and I am hoping he is a May foal as he appears smaller than 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird who was also a May foal. Why be concerned about the size horses when this factor does not determine the size of their hearts display on the track. He won a 6F race in 1:09.85 closing from last but one. Judging from his pedigree he should be a dead and consequently I was not surprised to see him closing from that far back. While his closing kick did not surprise, the time of the race did. His pedigree does not suggest he would be effective at this distance against good sprinters. It therefore means he is a classy sort.

On the subject of his pedigree, it’s a rarity to see the dam line of a horse reflect such quality champions:

Dam sire: Fusaichi Pegasus - Derby winner and Preakness runner up

2ns Dam sire: Seattle Slew - Triple Crown winner, HOY

3rd Dam sire: Northern Dancer - Derby, Preakness winner and Belmont runner up; CAN HOY; Leading broodmare sire, 1991

4th Dam sire: Buckpasser: Need no introduction - HOY, Leading Broodmare Sire (1983, 1984, 1988, 1989)

While the majority of horses do no run to their pedigrees this colt has shown 1:09.85 speed for 6F and he is suppose to be a router. He therefore has definitely inherited from the gene pool cited above. His third dam sire Northern Dancer was a small horse. Could his size be linked to ND? If this is the case let’s hope he has the ability to run 10F in 2:00 flat like ND did in his 1964 Derby victory. He does have some historic negatives. A Derby winner sired by a Derby winner and whose dam was sired by a Derby winner is literally unheard of. I have not charted the entire history of the Kentucky Derby but if this pedigree profile has won it is probably an isolated case. The last derby winner to be sire a derby winner was Unbridled (1996) a grandson of Mr. Prospector. Street Sense is a grandson of Mr. P. The last derby winner that was broodmare sire of a Derby winner was Triple Crown winner Count Fleet (1965). Two sons of MR. Prospector have been derby winning broodmare sires i.e., Carson City (Barbaro) Smart Strike (Mine That Bird). It has been 15 years since the last KD winner was sired by a Derby winner. It has been 46 years since a Derby winner has be broodmare sire of a derby winner. Based on both spans the recurrence is due and also overdue.

Street Sense was trained by an old school trainer; consequently it is safe to assume he was not subjected to the high powered race day cocktails use by the some of the prominent eclipse award winning high profile trainers. This stallion therefore cannot be considered damaged good and should be capable of breaking the Derby wining sires’ jinks. Fusaichi Pegasus is undoubtedly the most physically imposing son of Mr. Prospector and he had the performance to complement his looks. His success as a stallion to date is moderate at best. Could he join the likes of Carson City and Smart Strike and be a derby winning broodmare sire? Could he be another Secretariat moderate as a sire but excellent as a broodmare sire? You never know!

Interestingly bred little colt who merits watching. If two unraced horses can combine for a derby winner (Determined 1951) I see no reason why a Derby winner and a broodmare sired by a Derby winner cannot combine for same.

re: The Future is Now

KY VET — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 05:55:51 GMT

KINGKAPPER? I HAD 10 TO 1 ON STREET SENSE ....BET 500 ON 8 LENGTH WINNER OF JUV. 10 TO 1? I STILL DONT KNOW HOW THEY GAVE ME THAT.........FIVE GRAND.....NICE HEDGE FUND!

re: The Future is Now

Householder — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 00:30:24 GMT

Thanks Tiznowbaby. Jaycito looks primed with that work.

I saw a quote in the LA Times from Baffert in regards to Liason. Baffert said something to the effect of Liason doesn't have a ton of speed like his dad Indian Charlie did but rather takes after his dam's side and Victory Gallop which I hated.

re: The Future is Now

Age of Reason — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 23:14:57 GMT

And how could you NOT love that Street Sense colt, In The Beat? (just went back and watched his impressive maiden win again). Exact same connections as Street Sense (Nafzger, Tafel, and Borel); by a Derby winner (Street Sense), out of a mare by a Derby winner (Fuasichi Pegasus); and descends from two different classic-type Mr. Prospector lines (Street Sense from the Machiavellian line; FuPeg, of course, by Mr. P. himself). Watch out for him and the other Street Sense horse, G3 Iroquois winner Motor City, next year for sure!

re: The Future is Now

Ranagulzion — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 17:14:00 GMT

KINGKAPPER,

The arrogance of your post is surpassed only by its crassitude.

Your stated rationale for the future bets makes absolutely no sense from an investment point of view. Wise investors/risk takers do not hedge risky investment with riskier instruments. These fiture pools are undeniably riskier than raceday wagers and do not qualify as hedging instruments, except for a rookie. Therefore prudent horseplayers who do not wish to burn their money might as well place it where their risk is lowest (Union Rags, for instance) or give it to charity ... for heavens sake (my sound advice).

Your perspective on hedge investments doesn't give credibility to your scolding of blog posters about the use of their time or opinions.

Talk about flaunting arrogance to expose ignorance ...Oh boy ...Merry Christmas