Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

KY VET — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:07:20 GMT

Jacob..i wasnt aware alphas count fleet was only 85...my brisnet said 100...therefore i thought he would regress.....i was wrong...it happens.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Stevebiscuit — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:01:32 GMT

Forbidden Apple, I gotta disagree. If anything Game On Dude is even more dangerous at a mile and a quarter. Unlike Ultimate Eagle, Game On Dude excels when there's a fast pace up front. When you compare their races, Game On Dude is faster at just about every call. I'm sure Ultimate Eagle will be tough, but he'll have to beat Game On Dude before I'm convinced.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Weekend — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 19:29:38 GMT

Giggs may have more hair.... HA

Onto the new blog. See you on the flip side!

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Mary Zinke — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 19:00:04 GMT

B.E., Right. I see the similarity in the champagne popping photo. Same smile.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Weekend — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 18:29:16 GMT

So, I was watching the Man U V Chelsea soccer match this weekend, and I came across Shandler's doppleganger...

newsportplayers.blogspot.com/.../ryan-giggs.html

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Forbidden Apple — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 16:10:05 GMT

ColdFacts,

What happened to Tiger Walk? If anyone is a turf horse, it is him. Yes the time of the Withers was average, but it was a walk in the park for Alpha. It was the way he won that impressed me, very professional. He was completely geared down, the best is yet to come.

Mathieu,

Izzy Rules is still unknown, yet I see her as a future Grade I horse. If anyone missed her race on friday, go back and watch the replay. I was very lucky to hit the chalk double hard and a straight exacta with La Sombre over Lofty Ambition. But the big news out of Cali is the coming of a new superstar, Ultimate Eagle!

Stevebiscuit,

Since you are gaga over Game On Dude, I'm guessing that you missed the Strub Stakes. Game On Dude ran well, but he looked all out and I don't trust him at 1 1/4. Ultimate Eagle is also nominated for several Dubai races. If Ultimate Eagle stays in CA, the Big Cap is all his for the taking. Tapizar passed him down the backstretch and then the Eagle opened his wings and powered home with plenty left in the tank. Ultimate Eagle is the best horse in the country. He wins on turf and dirt, extremely impressive for a horse with tremendous upside. A stone cold FREAK!

Billy's Empire,

You know I liked Battle Hardened when I thought he was running in a maiden race at Gulfstream. I already had my mind made up on Prospective in the Sam Davis. I like both horses going forward for the Tampb Bay Derby. Even though Prospective was getting to him, I think Battle Hardened was out for a jog and has more potential.

And finally I have to say that Empire Way ran a sneaky good race. Moving forward I think he and out Of Bounds are the best colts in Cali.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Footlick — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:41:56 GMT

If I haven't heard everything Giselle was supposed to have said about Brady's teammates, then I apologize. But the video I saw was that she was being heckled by Giants fans dissing her husband, and she said (paraphrasing) that he couldn't throw the ball and catch it at the same time. It seems pretty tame to me. Now, if they have footage of her blaming players by name, singling people out, etc, then that is not right. But what she said at the elevator was tame and I am amazed it is being blown out of proportion. Just my opinion though. She just was defending her husband.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

GunBow — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 07:16:45 GMT

Giants are just a bad matchup for the Pats.

Speaking of Game on Dude, he was a horrible matchup for Twirling Candy last year.

Twirling Candy came closest to getting 10 furlongs in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar over Poly because the pace was a slow and steady 24 seconds for every quarter. More of a turf horse, Twirling could get 10 furlongs if he was able to receive a comfortable pace, the type of pace more common on turf and the turf-like synth surfaces(Poly, Pro-Ride, Tapeta).

The problem for Twirling is that with Game on Dude in the Big Cap and Gold Cup, Twirling was pushed through tough first halves and 6 furlongs, and had to go head-to-head with a horse that can go out in 1:10 or 1:11 and just keep on finding more. That type of pace set-up, and Game on Dude's constant pressure, took the fight right out of Twirling in those races.

The Pacific Classic was the exception. Baffert and his team knew that Game on Dude wasn't going to be able to go out in 46 and 3(Big Cap) or 47 and 3(Gold Cup) and still be able to finish on Poly, especially with Acclamation in the field. In the Pacific Classic, Game on Dude set right off Acclamation through a first half in just 48 and 3. Unlike the Big Cap and Gold Cup which Game on Dude turned into wars of attrition(more typical of dirt races- fast early and slower late), the pace shape of the Pacific Classic was more turf-like, with even splits throughout and an emphasis on acceleration through the lane. Well, that played right into Twirling's strengths, and he was able to go right on by Game on Dude on the far turn of the Pacific Classic. Unfortunately for Twirling, the pace shape also played to the excellent turfer, champion Acclamation.

The BC Classic was another Game on Dude war of attrition. Had Twirling been in the field, he would have found himself alongside Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, and Havre de Grace gasping for air at the eighth pole, undone once again by Game on Dude.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Stevebiscuit — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 04:27:27 GMT

Slew, I meant not counting horses who are retired. Thanks for the correction though.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Paula Higgins — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 01:55:34 GMT

Draynay, ITA about Union Rags. I am hoping he can keep his form and Hansen as well. What a great rivalry that could be. As for the Super Bowl, good game and the right outcome. Nice to see Eli Manning come out on top. A good guy from a good family. Apparently Gisele Bundchen (Brady) was none to happy and blamed the receivers publicly. Not too classy.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Slew — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 01:01:04 GMT

Householder: Love Game On Dude...but...Ultimate Eagle looked sublime. It would be great if they both jumped into the Big 'Cap.

The BC turf mile with Mr. Commons AND Frankel would be glorious.

Stevebiscuit: "which horse East of the Mississippi can beat the Dude!"...Drosselmeyer already did it...Darn!

And Dray...seems to me that Game On Dude already came East and wiped out your contingent, including the HOY and an Aussie champion.

If Hansen can relax, he has the breeding to go 12f...if he can relax. He's not trained well enough yet. I'll give him a pass on the Holy Bull. As far as a frontrunner's capability...anyone notice how much Seattle Slew liked the front?

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Householder — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 23:03:38 GMT

Draynay I tried to help you with Game On Dude in the Breeder's Cup (Is Kentucky east of the Mississippi?). You wanted no part of it. Uncle Mo nor the eventual Horse of the Year could go with him over that distance of ground.

G.O.D. loves Santa Anita and no one short of Alysheba back from the dead is going to beat him there. They would be silly to skip the Classic and an HOY vote.

Mr. Commons, The Factor, Amazombie, Game On Dude. Would you bet against anyone of them come Breeder's Cup time? Big, big home track advantage this year.

The "east" may not win a single race and they won't have "synthetics" to cry into this time.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

tcc — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 22:17:10 GMT

For the users of beyers #'s.

I’ll Have Another received a Beyer Speed Figure of 96, a career best and superior to the numbers recorded by Saturday’s other Derby prep winners, Alpha, who got a 90 in the Withers at Aqueduct, and Battle Hardened, who received an 81 for his victory in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Draynay — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 20:47:00 GMT

Union Rags looked really good in his last work. Just stay healthy until May please. It would really be nice to see a horse with this much talent have a chance to go all the way.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Age of Reason — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 19:32:54 GMT

Ky Vet, before the Withers: "If you love [Alpha], stay out...im saying he weill (sic) regress."

DRF, after the Withers: "[Alpha's] Beyer Speed figure for the Withers...was 5 points higher than [when he won] the Count Fleet."

So long Ky Quack's credibility once again!...

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Stevebiscuit — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:56:24 GMT

Agreed Slew, I also felt he was the best horse of 2011, which is why I supported him for Horse of the Year.

Draynay- whether you like it or not, the best horse in America is once again a California horse. It's been that way since 2008, don't expect it to change soon. Why don't you enlighten us as to which horse East of the Mississippi can beat the Dude!

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

mz — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:46:15 GMT

As you may note, I liked Alpha for the BC Juv.

Didn't do so hot.

However, my choice won the Stupid Bowl (again) and this year, I really like Exothermic (because I liked his dam).

Who knows? Can I get anything on Exothermic in Vegas?

(One of these years, I WILL get to Vegas! Just to see "Venice" or "Paris" -- love both of those (real) cities.)

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Weekend — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:42:38 GMT

also a few updates-

I'll Have another is training up to the Santa Anita Derby

Take Charge Indy next start is Tampa Derby

Ender Knevial to Sunland Derby

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Weekend — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 17:15:15 GMT

I am still high on Spring Hill Farm. A horse he dominated just came back to break his maiden pretty easily.

Good to see Setsuko and Jaycito back on the track. I also loved watching Alternation take the Essex. I watched that horse a lot last year, he just never developed or had issues. This could be a good year for Alternation.

Apple, nice call on Battle Hardened. I bet him as soon as I saw he scratched out of the gulf allownace and Julien went to ride.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Pedigree Ann — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 14:47:10 GMT

I have always been suspicious of Derby colts whose best form is over the Inner at Aqueduct. This is a hybrid surface, neither all dirt nor all synthetic. Some horses love it, some hate it, and some run their race whatever, just like with full-on AW. Alpha had decent form on dirt as a 2yo, so there is hope he can transfer back to all-dirt without a hiccup. We'll see.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Draynay — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 03:39:36 GMT

Geez. Game On Dude ran on a very fast track, against a very small field and a very weak field and now I am sure we will have to hear how great he is beating 4 very average horses. Until Game On Dude wins something East of the Mississippi I will not be sold.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Stevebiscuit — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 03:39:04 GMT

"BTW, the Pats are an absolute lock this weekend. I'm loading up. They will put up at least 38."

-Jason Shandler

"Pats win the Superbowl. NY Defense cannot stop the quick pass."

-Draynay

You guys were saying?

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

ksweatman9 — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 02:51:40 GMT

Hansen is too pretty to be the next superhorse. Ya can't have it all, as they say. With his good looks and charm comes a flaw, that being his form. Front runners are doomed to fail at one time or another. That being said, I love the horse and will continue to be in his corner. He should do well inspite of himself and I'm going to remain a loyal fan.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

Paula Higgins — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 02:37:51 GMT

Mr. Commons was pretty impressive, as was Game On Dude. Alpha was not too shabby either. ITA Draynay that Black Caviar is otherworldly. 17 in a row is probably gonna be 18-19-20 etc. in a row for her. Who is going to beat her?? She dominates like two girls I can think of: Rachel at 3 and Zenyatta at 4,5,and 6. Cannot wait to see their foals, even though I know there are no guarantees of talent in either one.

re: Alpha: A Top Dog or Pretender?

GunBow — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 01:25:58 GMT

Predicted Beyer for Game on Dude:

100

You just can't run a really fast Beyer at Santa Anita when it's this quick, and starter handicap horses can go 1:21 for 7 furlongs.

Game on Dude did what he needed to do, looking fantastic in dominating a solid grade 2 horse in Uh Oh Bango. Game on Dude's fraction for 6 furlongs was a second faster than Ultimate Eagle's, and while Ultimate Eagle went faster from 6 furlongs to the mile, Game on Dude closed better.

Now the big question, will Game on Dude go to Dubai, and if he does, will he run in the Big Cap beforehand? The Game on Dude camp is talking Dubai. This for a horse that Baffert stressed repeatedly last year is a "dirt horse" and who ran his worst race over Del Mar's Polytrack. Game on Dude ran well in the Hollywood Gold Cup but Cushion is more like dirt than either Poly or Tapeta(Dubai). You simply can't go out in 1:09 and expect to win a 10 furlong race on Tapeta.

I've been wrong before, but why would you bypass a race you won last year over a track you are now 4 for 4 over(and face very modest competition), to go half away around the globe to run over a surface your horse doesn't like? I know, $10 million vs. $750k, but the Big Cap is as prestigious a race for older horses as you can get. If Game on Dude bucks the Big Cap for Dubai, Santa Anita is going to HAVE to move the Big Cap to earlier in the meet, or otherwise it will lose all relevancy.