Three of a Kind

re: Three of a Kind

NASCAR PRO — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 12:30:18 GMT

UR won the FOY like if it was a maiden training race at the dog track without a purse just as a learning race.He schooled the depleted field by 4 lengths and becomes the undisputed leader in the KY Derby futures at least on paper.If he gets the same trip in the derby the rest are running for 2nd,of course there will be 13 more competitors for the derby.

re: Three of a Kind

Draynay — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 03:00:59 GMT

I think this weekend proves I know everything.

re: Three of a Kind

ZORRO — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 16:17:22 GMT

IMO Beyer speed figures are not as valuable a tool at picking overlays as they were when Andrew Beyer made a tidy sum using them himself,before he sold the rights to the form.If you read what Baffert stated in an interview,they didnt have the screws tightented for this race,as they did for the Malibu,so unless you keep in mind that the connections have certain goals for their steeds and they work their horses with those plans in mind the figures are not going to give you anything more than what a complete neophyte with a reasonable amount of intelligence can get by reading the form.I will say that the figures are more useful for sprints than routes because their is only one turn in a sprint as opposed to a route where there are two turns and a runner is more at risk of a bad trip,ground loss,stopping etc,also weight becomes more of an issue the farther they run and if it is a race on turf the condition of the ground.

re: Three of a Kind

NASCAR PRO — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 14:03:56 GMT

Well the FOY will be run on a wet track,it is raining harder now.It has been overcast here since yesterday evening so I think they had time to seal the track after racing was completed as long as they could do this without any daylight.A lot of bloggers even the host of this blog are picking Discreet Dancer because they think this one will control the pace,in a race that starts almost on the turn the inside horses and their jockeys will want to TAKE what is given to them if they are on the inside.I dont think Discreet Dancer will get anything close to his last trip if he does the jockeys are giving in too easy.

re: Three of a Kind

KY VET — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 02:22:01 GMT

Why does everybody keep thinking i liked uncle mo in the classic? I said uncle mo was the best horse. And he was the best horse . I didnt like him in the classic....The factor didnt run as good, and my horse scratched...not a big shock...thought he would regress a little more...waiting for beyer fig. And i shall show you all some of my choices....upcoming

re: Three of a Kind

NASCAR PRO — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 00:28:42 GMT

Well just watched the Factor dig in and hold on to win.This wasnt as easy a win as the Malibu but he still won,sorry KY Vet wrong again.EL Padrino at less than even money didnt run that hard but won by a nose.He didnt try to run to his last race just used enough energy to win, but I bet if you asked his jockey he felt he had it as soon as they turned into the stretch, thats what they get paid for perfect timing.KY Vet I think thats what they wanted an easy win to get $180,000 in graded earnings.I think the Factor worked a lot harder in this race but he still won,these horses are not machines they cant run at their peak every race.

re: Three of a Kind

NASCAR PRO — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 14:00:45 GMT

I guarantee that if I was at the track with Kentucky Vet and we had differing opinions I wouldnt be convinced to change my opinion.Before I started posting on here, I remember he was boldly touting Uncle Mo as the best horse in the classic,and anyone that follows horseracing on a regular basis had to know that the owner made the decision to run in the classic off a mile prep.As far as the Factor losing today I will see if Kentucky Vet is right about that.Its not all about the horses they are animals, it also has to do with the humans involved in managing and training the horses.These races arent run on paper things happen in the actual races that NO ONE can predict and it leads to unexpected outcomes.IMO any professional horseplayer knows there are very few locks,relative to all the races that are studied,its all about getting the right odds on your bets.No player that makes a profit does so by playing all favorites or all long shots,and its all subjective.(all about opinions)one of the ONLY known factors are the ODDS before the race starts.

re: Three of a Kind

JayJay — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 08:04:30 GMT

Ranagulzion : He will only regret his decision IF Union Rags wins. Otherwise, everyone will see him as a smart businessman.

KY VET : 95% of the time I have no idea what you're talking about (sometimes I wonder if you even know what you're talking about) but it would be nice if you actually pick a horse and post here just so we can see how great a handicapper you are. Who do you like in the FOY ? Risen Star ? Let's start with that...

I'm going with El Padrino / Tizanexpense / Shared Property in the Risen Star. I'm hoping for Tiz to hit the board at big odds.

FOY will probably go with Algorithms / Union Rags / Casual Trick. I'll let Discreet Dancer beat me, which he probably will as I don't think anyone can go with him but I just can't bet all 3 favorites, there's no money in it.

Good luck to all !

re: Three of a Kind

KY VET — Sat, 25 Feb 2012 06:00:59 GMT

Ranag.....i do this for a living. If you only knew...at the track i go to people come up to me for picks, and ticket tellers always ask who i like.....and yes the factor looks like hes alone on the lead....looks like a cinch, and i predict he will lose....if he wins, big whoop...just another race! i am having one of my best years ever so far.....life is good...by the way, quote of the year-COLDCUTS" the factor has great 1 1/4 stride" wow!

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Ranagulzion — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 18:13:26 GMT

KY VET,

Afraid to give away your secrets? LOL. You need to convince us of your prowess as a handicapper before most on here would be interested in your secrets. So far you haven't showed us anything special. Carlos in Cali could teach you a thing or two Bro, even though he's still kinda stuck on those AP Indys.

Mary,

Javier Castellano doesn't seem to realise that a potential Triple Crown winner is something money can't buy. I believe he'll regret his decision no matter how much he earns from his association with todd Pletcher. It is interesting that after many years in the service of Pletcher Johnny V fortuitously got his Derby breakthrough last year with a chance ride on Animal kingdom for Graham Motion. Sometimes it pays to just go with your instincts.

re: Three of a Kind

El Kabong — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 16:51:44 GMT

KY Vet,

Will do. Thanks.

Billy,

Check, check and check in FOY.

Mary,

Enjoy the FG this weekend. I'm expecting some pre race, race and post race observations from you on Sunday. This would have been the year to travel to The Big EZ, take in Mardi Gras, and stay for the race. Why o why did I not see the dates falling into place? C'est la vie.

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Weekend — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 16:51:27 GMT

he never did, my bad. I was thinking about Algo beating him. Thanks for catching that

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Karen in Texas — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 16:17:17 GMT

Billy----When did Castellano ride Hansen? I'm only aware of Victor Lebron and Ramon Dominguez having ridden him.

re: Three of a Kind

Weekend — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 14:20:20 GMT

On my way to the gig this morning, Clint Glasscock(algorithm owner) was on the radio discussing the FOY. He feels the main threat in the FOY is Pletcher's other horse, Discreet Dancer. If he goes out and get's an uncontested lead, it will be a game of catch me if you can. That is his main concern in the race. He respects Union Rags, but took a jab about how they already beat Hansen. He also said that the horse they fear most is El Padrino. Javier has ridden Algo, Rags, El Padrino, and Hansen, and he said he would not trade places with anyone, so read into that if you will...

last, he also mentioned Zito's horse in the FOY is the pace falls apart. good luck. A lto of big races this weekend

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Matthew W — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 14:06:33 GMT

Dont bet on Amazombie not hitting the board--he runs well fresh--inside post not so bad cuz he takes himself back--Mike will likely get him out from back there--that's a very classy horse, a former claimer who got good and has been good for a long time....

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ZORRO — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 13:22:17 GMT

TY for the welcome Paula Higgins.I think UR will hit the board,but if he is the favorite and he IS the highweight I wouldnt bet him to win unless it was to cover an exotic bet where I had him underneath.On paper El Padrino is the best,lets see what the odds read at racetime.

re: Three of a Kind

Trebloc — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 13:13:10 GMT

In the Risen Star, I am going with Afford and Shared Property. I like Afford's post position and I expect Shared Property to get a better trip then last time. El Padrino ran his best two races on wet/sloppy tracks, so I am hoping for a fast track.

I like Union Rags in the FOY.

re: Three of a Kind

robinm — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 09:05:09 GMT

I love Union Rags but we certainly do not know that he is the best 3-yr old out there because he hasn't run since he was 2. We'll have a much better idea after this weekend and I can hardly wait.

The Steve Asmussen/John Shirreffs debate is pretty silly because the two trainers are disimilar in many ways that matter. That said, it's hard for me to call Mr. Shirrefs a "great" trainer on the basis of a Ky Derby win and because he campaigned Zenyatta. The Derby win was a fluke with a 2nd rate horse in a race that fell apart; no credit to John.

I will concede he mapped out a very carefully planned campaign for Zenyatta that was successful on many fronts, but... and this is a BIG but, there would be nary an argument about the greatness of that mare if only she had been given more opportunity to show what she was capable of. Because she seldom met tough fields and tough challenges, her "greatness" will always be a little suspect to me and to many others. A shame, I think, because she probably could have proved herself to be a truly great horse if given the chance.

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RJPPDP — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 06:54:23 GMT

Jason,

Thank you so much for the wonderful article on Steve A. He is an excellent trainer and someday he will win the derby. I think he best hope is Sabercat. He already has sufficient graded earnings which allows him to take a two prep race schedule that will allow him to progress in a manner that could make him peak on the first Saturday in May. The San Felipe is looking like an extremely tough race. He could come in third and still be progressing nicely. He could not win and still be a live longshot in the derby.

re: Three of a Kind

LAZMANNICK — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 06:22:32 GMT

Longwaytomay

You might get your wish with Discreet Dancer. I would say that he’ll probably be 4-1 as the top two will definitely be very heavily bet, especially Algorithms because it is still Union rags’ first start since the BC Juvenile, almost four months.

I am extremely high on Discreet Dancer and think that he just might potentially be the most talented three year old at this time. I do have a concern with only two starts and a minor setback in his training schedule. His possible distance limitations might also be a concern, especially for the Derby and TC races. He is from his sire, Discreet Cat’s first crop, and so far there is not much to report on any of his offspring. Discreet Cat himself, though awesome at middle distances (he ran the fastest Cigar Mile yet in 1.32.46; and his UAE Derby at 9F was the second fastest of 8 runnings of the event), failed miserably at 10F in his only try at the distance.

I am a firm believer in using Dosage Index genetics as a guide to whether a horse can get the Derby distance of 10 furlongs, but also realize that there have been many exceptions. Discreet Dancer’s Dosage Index of 3.44 is considered too high for the Derby and TC races and yet Smarty Jones DI was 3.40. In recent years the average Dosage Index of the Kentucky Derby winners is rising, (2.27 since 1940; and 2.94 since 1998). Since 1940, only five winners of the Derby have had a DI of more than 4.00 (7% of the 71 winners), but two of those, Giacomo and Mine That Bird, came in the past 7 runnings so anything is possible. And Giacomo and Mine That Bird came from way out of it. Smarty came from 4th. None of them tried to set the pace or pushed it close up. War Emblem, like Smarty a Derby winner with a DI of 3.40, did lead all the way, but set very controlled and moderate fractions early and closed his final quarter in 24.43 seconds

My concern with Discreet Dancer is his running style of either being on the lead or very close to it and pushing the pace. If he relaxes on Sunday and they get maximum potential out of him, this race could be a no contest.

re: Three of a Kind

LAZMANNICK — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 04:26:22 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum

Ever get a crow's claw stuck in your throat? Man they're persistently annoying and almost impossible to get rid of. If you look it up in the dictionary that’s what they call a Draynay.

re: Three of a Kind

Ranagulzion — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 04:00:32 GMT

With Johnny V pre-selected to ride Discreet Dancer they are definitely sending him to wire the field but I don't think that other rivals are going to play dead to that strategy. Discreet dancer will feel that he's in a race for the first time and i believe that seasoning will determine the outcome of a competitive affair. union Rags doesn't have to be fully cranked to win. He'll run very well off the lay-off.

re: Three of a Kind

Pine_Bluff_987 — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 03:54:53 GMT

Thanks Jason. I respect Asmussen whenever I see his horses going. Hierro, have you heard anything on him? He's been back on the workout tab after the disappointing Sham. I was hoping for better things from him and he still may have some time and the Sunland race is out there in March with sizable graded stakes money.

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Mary — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 03:10:37 GMT

El Kabong, point taken. I will be surprised if Union Rags loses the FOY. Discreet Dancer is a sprinter, and Algorithms, I don't think so. He beat Hansen, but Hansen is the better horse, so I threw out that race. Pletcher's record is poor in the triple crown races, with the number of horses that he trains. I'm just saying....

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Mary — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 02:53:34 GMT

jayjay, I was at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans when Zardana beat Rachael Alexandra. John did a great job with Zardana; she beat the Horse of the Year. I love Rachael, though.