A Can't-Miss Weekend

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 06:03:28 GMT

Confucius says:Its not about choosing the individual that will win out of 20 possible,Its about formulating a wager that will cover more possible outcomes in case your 1 out of 20 dosent finish in the top 3.Or if you like you can follow the herd and try to foolishly wager on on one and theres always next year.Every year 20 owners want to run their colts in a mile and a quarter race, the question is do all 20 of their steeds want to run in such a race also?

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Mary — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 14:20:57 GMT

Hyperion is a descendant of the great mare Pocahontas. It is thought that she carried the large heart gene. Somethingroyal inherited the gene from her sire, Princequillo, and passed it on to her great son, Secretariat. That's why I like the fact that Secretariat is located on the tail side of Union Rags' pedigree.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Mary — Sat, 03 Mar 2012 04:41:20 GMT

You guys are insane. You are running everyone off this forum with your very unclassy remarks. I can only surmise that you all are very young. No more talk, moving on.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 22:12:39 GMT

TCC,

We will all no more tomorrow after the Gotham. I'm going with an exacta box of Side Road and My Adonis.

Beware of Emcee in the Tom Fool, he can run the field off from their feet in a hurry.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

PomDeTerre — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 21:44:50 GMT

@ KY VET- would you do us all a favor and just drop off the planet ( and the BH blogs). Your condescending attitude was sickening last year at TC time, and in this 1 blog here, I have had enough of your snarkniness for this year. Go away; please just go away.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

LAZMANNICK — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 18:10:46 GMT

Nijinsky also lost the Arc in a photo to Sassafras in 1970 and did win at 12F twice and also at 14F.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

furlongs — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 04:29:54 GMT

First off I saw DRAYNAY's name on here for the first time since after he took a bath at Breeders Cup (MO CLASSIC, LOL) and threw up a little in my mouth, second nothing like a 6/5 effort out of Union Rags to bring him on here bragging already. Dude have you ever bet any horse over 2-1??? By the way never heard anything about that losing ticket on Mo you were suppose to send me to prove you bet the amounts you say you do. But don't worry not like I really expected it. Everyone knows your nothing but a chalk betting blow hard anyway that does a good job of telling people how much you made AFTER the results have been posted. Nice to see your 2011 Derby horse (after you switched 3 times when Mo wasnt running, Mo triple crown god you crack me up!) finally beat up on some useless pigs at the fairgrounds and won a race. I have met a ton of people going to the track some good some not so good but you take the case. Your credit-ability on these blogs is lower then Romney's poll numbers in the south. PLEASE tell me your not a Democrat I can take your running of the mouth when it comes to touting 3/5's but knowing we are on the same side politics wise just will put me over the edge! Anyway glad to log on and see that your still doing what you do best and that is bragging about how good you are, when we all know you lack the basic skills to handicap your way out of a brown paper bag. Good luck at the windows everyone. And DRAYNAY please tell us who you like before the prep races this year again, last year it was a wonderful handicapping angle to use so we all knew who couldn't win!!

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Ranagulzion — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 02:23:36 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

I find this subject quite fascinating. You can never be certain where the dominant traits are coming from but if certain names appear often enough it tells you what the quality of the horse is likely to be.

For example, whenever the blue hen mare La Troinne appears multiple times accross the pedigree matrix you can be fairly confident of a horse's ability to be competitive at the classic distance. Many breeders believe that it doen't hurt to keep adding La Troinne blood (usually via buckpasser) when breeding for The Classics.

I believe the same is true of Hyperion. You not only look for how close up in the pedigree but for how distributed he is throughout the matrix. Union Rags has multiple crosses of Hyperion, top and bottom. It has also been said by his owner that he was a very lazy/sleepy yearling and is a very docile individual (which was one of the reasons he was originally sold prior to being bought back by the original owner), traits which are remarkably similar to Hyperion (he was a very sleepy/lazy colt, hence my conclusion that the secret of his stamina also lies there. In terms of phenotype he appears to be built like Nijinsky, one that stood 16.3 hands and galloped with powerful strides. Interestingly Nijinsky was bred by the legendary Canadian breeder E.P.taylor with the Rasmussen factor,i.e. inbreed 5X5 to Selene, dam of Hyperion, through different offsprings.

Nijinsky's ability to get the distance of the Epsom derby was doubted by many but we know the history. Same goes for Secretariat. I have every confidence that he'll not only stay 10 furlongs but also the distance of the Belmont stakes. He has already shown a relish for the Belmont surface. Let watch and enjoy.

I appreciate you engaging me in this discussion.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 19:59:16 GMT

Hey Billy. I would love to join you at the Derby but I'm not that fortunate that I would be able to make it. I hope you have a splendid time Derby week though and may all your wagers be winners.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Carlos in Cali — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 19:40:22 GMT

Fine by me Mary. I should've known better when you said Gone West was a stamina influence.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

tcc — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 15:51:32 GMT

Yes, Kiaran did mention the FL derby as a possibility for Alpha. I'm thinking that he will wake up soon and realize that the path of least resistance is in NY. Why run against Union Rags before the KY Derby?

Forbidden Apple 29 Feb 2012 8:52 PM.

Roman Dominguez is the regular rider for both Alpha and Hanson, if he runs Alpha in the Flordia Derby, Ramon will ride him. If he runs Alpha in the Wood Memorial against Hanson who will Ramon ride?

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Weekend — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 15:17:24 GMT

Laz, I actually picked Animal Kingdom, just like you, GENIUS, and I had St Johns River/Plum Pretty exacta in the OAKS. I have texts on my phone to still prove it. I just looked. I go to the track every morning during Derby week. You can learn a ton by wathcing, and Plum Pretty looked awesome. So did AK. I loved the way St Johns was coming into the race and the price was right. SO, IF your intent was saying I only played chalk and you were going to try to throw in how awesome you think you are, you don't need to worry. We all think you are awesome buddy...

At Breeders Cup, I did horrendous, only hit 1 pick 3 that ended with Hansen, but everyone has a bad day(s)

I will be at Derby and Oaks again this year if you want to join me. I am always looking for an expert handicapper to sit with for tips

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 13:16:20 GMT

Ranagulzion - that is why I asked about physical appearance. When the pedigree can go any direction, knowing which close ancestor the animal physically take after gives more clues. Like my youngest brother, who physically resembled his namesake grandfather, an academic in agriculture, a farmer, and 'rod and gun' clubber; bro got degree in hydrology, works in designing irrigation systems for agriculture, bow-hunts in the mountains...,

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Footlick — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 04:54:09 GMT

JerseyBoy- The low average has nothing to do with versatility. The majority of his horses sprint. That is why his AWD is low. The more versatile and balanced a horses offspring, the wider the spectrum of distances won at, so the higher the AWD. But you can interpret it however you want.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Forbidden Apple — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 01:52:49 GMT

It aint easy,

The Factor may have won that battle, but Sway Away was gaining on him rapidly. I'm looking forward to that rematch and a win for Sway Away. He is a quality animal that just never seems to win, soon come. And good luck in Dubai, if Jeff Bonde ships Frumious it's all over for The Factor. That straight dragstrip is just what the doctor ordered for Frumious.

El Kabong,

I admit that I do not follow Fairgrounds often, but the race still seemed average to me. Maybe El Padrino should head to the FL derby and try his luck against the monster named Union Rags. Larry Jones is my favorite trainer, I love how he does all of the dirty work and is the trainer. Most top trainers never get dirty, he is a class act and a great example of what one can achieve with hard hands on work.

Carlos in Cali,

El Padrino vs. Union Rags is like comparing a mustang to a lamborghini. Have you ever listened to the beautiful sounds that come out of a roaring lamborghini? I agree that Union Rags was out for a gallop against inferior competition. But so much of horse racing is anticipating the future and how much improvement is possible. I'm not writing off El Padrino, I just think his race at the Fairgrounds was average at best. Union Rags appears to have his engine firing on all cylinders at the moment.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Mary — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 01:17:40 GMT

Csrlos in Cali, I'm not new to Jason's blog. I do know something about pedigree, although I am not an expert but I don't think that you know the first thing abou it. You keep harping on Dixie Union with no mention of the mare. I'm not going to respond to you anymore, because you really can't have any semblance of an intelligent conversation concerning pedigree.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

JerseyBoy — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 23:00:21 GMT

Footlick:

You wrote of Oasis dream:

"his AWD is still only 7.1 furlongs, which means that the majority of his foals can't run a distance of ground".

The average is low because he sires horses who win at both short distances and long distances. The sprinters bring down the average. The low average is a result of his versatility.

However, for me, none of this matters. What I look at is what the result is, not what, in theory, it should be. I could not care less about a horse’s pedigree if the horse’s performance is available.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Ranagulzion — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 23:00:04 GMT

Carlos,

You can now add Consortium to the list. It can be no blessing to see horses get injured. I'd prefer my theory be proven wrong. I have noticed that whenever the AP Indys are pushed to make the Spring Classics they tend to hurt themselves or run lacklustre until Summer/Fall. Lets hope that the others endure the challenge, especially El Padrino and Hansen.

Pedigree Ann & Footlick,

I appreciate your respective responses. I guess that part of the fascination with Union Rags' campaign will be to see him stretch out in majestic fashion. I believe he'll be like both Nijinsky and Secretariat and get the ultimate Classic distance of 12 furlongs. We already know that he relishes a good run over the Belmont surface and he'll revel in the slop so lets bring on the distance. Times like these don't come often so we got to enjoy 'em whether you're a visionary, skeptic or hindsighter.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

LAZMANNICK — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 22:21:07 GMT

TCC

That's if Billy gets back from his trip to sea with Captain Highliner. Besides the second favorite to him is a long shot.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

It aint easy being good! — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 21:19:05 GMT

I am the godfather of handicapping just wanted to throw that out there! You bloggers are all out of your minds if you think Union rags will win the derby here we go again hype horse of the month! Cant wait to hear about Hansen after this weekend! Then the winner of the florida derby and tampa derby!

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Carlos in Cali — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 21:09:24 GMT

Ranagulzion,

The AP Indy's are dropping like flies.First Algorithms then Casual Trick followed by Junebugred.. so count your "late development theory" blessings my fiend. Even though I felt they weren't major players if they made it to the Derby.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Carlos in Cali — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 20:58:15 GMT

Mary, don't flatter yourself. I know you're new to Jason's blog so I'll let it go.. for now. Just remember what I've said about the Dixie Unions'. I know my racing.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

tcc — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 20:14:06 GMT

Laz, condescending? Nah, I just call it like I see it. Sorry the truth hurts sometimes. Pull up your big girl panties and get over it. If you want, we can post picks every week. You let me know the race slick.

Billy's Empire 28 Feb 2012 4:05 PM.

Billy

Hey genius you forgot to tell me to put on my eye shadow and check my lipstick. Who did you pick in last year’s Derby again?

LAZMANNICK 28 Feb 2012 11:55 PM.

Make the race this year's K. Derby, settle it this way, the person whom picks the winner of the race gets 10 points and bragging rights, if neither picks the winner, the person that picks the horse that has the higher finish gets 5 points and bragging rights.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Karen in Texas — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 20:03:07 GMT

Pedigree Ann----I have not seen Union Rags in person, and I certainly never saw Nijinsky, but I found a comment by Frank Mitchell who authored the book, "Racehorse Breeding Theories". He says that Terpsichorist had the "scope and brawn" of Nijinsky. To quote--"The foals out of Glad Rags were some of the prettiest horses I have seen, but Terpsichorist had a great deal of the scope and brawn of her great sire." Interesting, since UR has become so large. I am unable to find a picture of her, but wonder if her appearance/phenotype is manifested in UR. If so, perhaps her distance abilities are as well.

re: A Can't-Miss Weekend

Footlick — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 19:02:24 GMT

It's always fun to find sires who are a bit of a surprise like Oasis Dream, where he does get a few horses who have been able to get a distance of ground. But even with the horses JerseyBoy cited, his AWD is still only 7.1 furlongs, which means that the majority of his foals can't run a distance of ground. Oasis Dream is out of a Dancing Brave broodmare which does help.