The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Draynay — Sun, 25 Mar 2012 00:51:54 GMT

It's kind of crazy to me that next year it will cost more to hook up with Scatdaddy than it will Point Given.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Householder — Tue, 20 Mar 2012 16:35:29 GMT

Pace caused Point Given to miss the Triple Crown as well. The Derby was the only time he was off the board and he went on to win 4 consecutive 1 million dollar or over races. The Derby is a complete crap shoot. Pace, post position, jockey error, too many horses in the way, you name it.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

JayJay — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 18:26:55 GMT

Chief : No, I used thedowneyprofile's post position for the Rebel which was incorrect since there were a coupled horses. I played Secret Circle with Reckless Jerry and Jake Mo just like I stated, I had a tri with SC to Jake Mo and Scatman but never had Optimizer anywhere in any of my tickets. If the race was run again, I still wouldn't have Lukas' horse in my ticket.

KY VET : Nice pick on Adirondack King, you're such the PRO.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 11:47:30 GMT

Btw JayJay I just looked at the Rebel your pick 7-5-9 thats what you wrote is Secret Circle Jake Mo and Reckless Jerry,I think you meant Secret Circle Sabercat and Antigun from reading your post.Is that who your playing in the tri box or is it Mo and Jerry behind SC.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 11:40:41 GMT

JayJay I made my picks but they are just to compete on here.I doubt I will get the set-up from previous races viewed and the odds I would like to play the 2-3-7 ex box.I am keeping an eye on the colt you mentioned and I have read other people take note of Najjaar.This trainer had Steppenwolfer several years back and he was a deep closer that finished 4th in the Derby.I have read his last was visually Impressive,so I wont watch the replay I will watch the Rebel and see how good he closes in this field.I also like Sabercat,I have him in Derby futures but he will be 2nd choice off a 119 day layoff.If Sabercat wins or comes in 2nd I will be very happy I already got him in the early installments of Derby futures.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 11:05:32 GMT

JayJay I made my picks for the Rebel to make them and compete on here.My exacta box is an outcome that will happen if the 2 and 3 get out of the gate and are joined by the 7 on the pace or right behind tracking.IMO thats the outcome that is most visible making the call before the race.Those 3 will have to separate from most the field and two of them will finish 1st and 2nd.In the Equibase handicapping contest you can only pick one horse,I will take Cyber Secret he is 15-1 on the morning line but I think he will go off at 6 or 7 to 1.Even if Secret Circle wins the Rebel I am not in his camp for the Derby.Remember last year the Factor smoked them in the Rebel winning by daylight to falter in the Arkansas Derby, although he had what I consider the best excuse for a trainer, he got hurt in the race, he flipped his palate.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Jason Shandler — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 04:46:28 GMT

Had a nice time at Tampa. Favorite part was hanging on second floor in Legends Bar. Good atmosphere up there. Wish I could have caught a couple of the bombs that came in that day. But I got my money back at GP luckily. Anyway, its not the newest track around but it has nice character.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

trackjack — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 03:24:45 GMT

2:24: Good to see you at Tampa Bay. If things go well I'll be back next year.

And a shoutout for the Thoroughbred Retirement of Tampa (TROT). Their fundraiser the evening before the TBD was first class and a great time. A deserving organization for all they do.

Jason: any comments on Tampa Bay Downs?

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Forbidden Apple — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 01:57:08 GMT

Trinniberg is a sprinter, give it up with calling him a KY Derby contender. Well maybe he could win the famous derby that uncle Mo won, the Timely Writer Derby.

I never like placing money on horses that just ran the best race of their life and made a huge beyer jump. Scatman ran a 69,87, and last time a 101 beyer. Adirondack King went from a 72 to a 91 beyer last time out. Secret Circle will be cruising through fast fractions, setting the race up for the late kick of Sabercat.

Ranagulzion,

Do you believe me now? I have been telling you all along that Gemologist was Pletcher's best chance on the KY Derby trail. There is still time for you to change your mind and declare Gemologist the next triple crown winner.

Now it looks like Alpha might skip out on the FL Derby. They should send him back to the Big A where he will run Hansen into the ground. I don't get the logic of sending him to LA at all.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

KY VET — Sat, 17 Mar 2012 01:50:29 GMT

I AM going to bet ad.king in the rebel....i said secret and the king in my pick 4.....but i am betting the longshot....drays horse will regress.....

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

JayJay — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 21:59:17 GMT

CHIEF : Nah, you play however you want to play, it's your money. I mentioned in the old blog that I didn't like SC's win in the SW because he looked all out trying to beat that "3" horse. Looking back now, I think that was actually a really good race, just like Creative Cause's race in the San Vicente, that was a tightener. SC should benefit from that 1M race and should improve for this race. I'm wondering now if I should play Scatman. I don't know how good he is but if he's a pretender, the SW was his 15 minutes of fame (or 1:37).

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 20:25:13 GMT

JayJay I would play a 2-3-7 exacta box using Scatman,Cyber Secret and Secret Circle 4 times $12 for $48 dollars and $25 to win on Secret Circle and $15 to win on Scatman and $12 to win on Cyber Secret.That is how I would play if you let me play exotics if not then let me know.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

JerseyBoy — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 20:21:20 GMT

Trinniberg?

He is not a Triple Crown nominee, yet.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Draynay — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 19:52:46 GMT

Yeah wasn't it great to have Spanish Chestnut setting the fastest Derby fractions ever to burn up Bellamy Road but at the same time burning up any horse within 10 lengths of that suicide mission. It cost us a Triple Crown winner.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Householder — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 19:16:05 GMT

I stand corrected. Bellamy Road won the Wood by 17 1/2 lengths in stakes record time and gets beat fading badly in the stretch by Giacomo!

Giacomo!

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Householder — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 19:09:54 GMT

Carlos in Cali. I would like to plant some grass for CC on Derby Day but grass pedigree that can run a classic distance is what seems to win. I thought another Giant Causway that did well on synthetics in California was Heatseeker. Harrington has plenty to work out in this one as he seems to wait on others and jumps around quite a bit. I don't know if he can close fast enough but my hope would be for him to break as usual, sit off the pace 4-5 lengths and then just pass tired ones. The down side is, another grass/distance pedigree may be lurking about that can pass him. I still don't see Union Rags outfinishing this grinder and unless they made the Florida Derby 1 1/4 miles it's irrelevant. Seem to recall a Wood winner taking the race by 10, becomming the Derby favorite, only to do nothing in the Derby. If everyone could simply race the clock the Derby would be an easy lock every year.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Carlos in Cali — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 17:29:49 GMT

Householder,

Not that he has peaked already,but I have no confidence in Harrington with this situation. He's never managed a quality router like CC. Harrington's shtick is speedy Swiss Yodeler 2yo sprinters. I don't think he can take him to the next level,but what do I know.

For what it's worth: I had a dream last night where the horses were turning for home in the Ky Derby and there was 3 horses neck-n-neck. The winner pulls-away and wins by about 3L,2nd place is clear by about 1 1/2L and the 3rd place horse fades and barely hangs on for the show spot...

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

JayJay — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 17:20:26 GMT

CHIEF PICAWINNA : Who's your pick in the Rebel ? How would your play your $100 ?

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Householder — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 16:44:53 GMT

Carlos in Cali are you suggesting that CC has peaked too soon? The horse has never been off the board and the San Felipe was just his second start this year. He's screaming for more ground and Union Rags is going to fold faster than the Wichita State.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Footlick — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 16:12:36 GMT

Ranagulzion- you gave two examples of horses you compared Trinniberg to, Spend A Buck and Bold Forbes. Both had stamina influences closer up in their pedigree, plus both were better and more accomplished at this stage of the game. As I said, if you feel that the 4th and 5th generation will influence his distance ability to the point that he will be able to run 10 furlongs the first Saturday in May, you are certainly allowed your belief. I cannot put faith in anything that far back. I will let him prove me wrong.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Carlos in Cali — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 14:57:00 GMT

KY VET

I don't think he's there yet.Like Baffert said,it was only his 3rd start so he was easy on him because the SA Derby is what they're focused on.We'll see.I say Bode' improves and CC will not.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

2:24 — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 13:29:57 GMT

Not in love with any of the horses running in the Rebel. Will probably take a shot at Atigun because I like the trainer and jockey at Oaklawn.

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 05:53:13 GMT

KY Vet so you are picking Secret Circle as well as JayJay in the Rebel.Do either of you care to post what his odds will be at post time?

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

Ranagulzion — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 03:22:44 GMT

Smoking Baby and Pedigree Ann,

I think that you get my point about Trinniberg. KY VET apparently hasn't been around long enough to remember Bold Forbes.

Footlick, you are welcome to join the Trinniberg speculator's club (LOL).

re: The Derby Trail Runs Through...Tampa?

KY VET — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 03:17:50 GMT

DRAYNAY! you made a bad mistake.....DONT BET the rebel! I dont want you to lose your momma's money! That was a poor pick.....