All Eyes on Union Rags

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Ranagulzion — Tue, 10 Apr 2012 00:31:53 GMT

All eyes off Union Rags ...for the time being ...could be a blessing in disguise ...especially for the trainer. There is a buzz developing around this year's Kentucky Derby that's a bit different from the recent past. The race appears to be wide open and not because of the absence of quality in the field. the winner will be something special, I feel, and so will the entire series be. I hope that Zarvona wont mind if I borrow GO BABY GO BABY GO BABY GO!!!

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Ranagulzion — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 04:34:04 GMT

Footlick my friend,

Perhaps we're splitting hairs here. Credit whichever of his ancestors you choose but one thing for sure, U/Rags will not be beaten by the Derby distance IMO.

I'm so looking forward to May 5.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Footlick — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 19:34:59 GMT

Ranagulzion- believe whatever you want. Terpsichorist and Nijinsky II will be the reasons.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Ranagulzion — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 08:14:54 GMT

Footlick,

both Nijinsky and Terpsichorist are products of inbreeding to the great Hyperion. Dixie Union adds more to Union Rags. Like the breeding connoisseurs say of La Troinne blood, "the more the better", same holds true for Hyperion. Talk to me after the Belmont Stakes.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

JayJay — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 17:04:51 GMT

Slew : You're right, that was an excellent win by Revenue. Credit the jockey as well for being smart, and patient. Finding spots for his horse to run at without losing momentum. That was a great run, and that's a 5F race.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Slew — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 14:56:52 GMT

Ranagul...even if UR won the BCJ, he wouldn't have topped HDG for HOY. Only Game On Dude could have come close. You just don't get HOY based on 3 races.

Whiiirrrrr...I think that spaceship took you farther out into the galaxy, and you're facing an extreme oxygen deficit.

Watch the 4-5-12 9th race from Gulfstream, and see how easily Revenue does everything UR should have been able to do....in the same position.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Footlick — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 03:21:45 GMT

If Union Rags wins at 10 furlongs, he can thank Terpsichorist and Nijinsky II before Hyperion.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

furlongs — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 00:53:23 GMT

Draynay,

Didnt Gemologist win the Timely Writer this year at Gulfstream??Thought you liked that prep going into the Derby last year!! I mean looking at Gemologist in that race it reminded me of Uncle Mo's win! just thought you might want to remember that so dont know someone for liking Gemologist because of the horses he faced. Willing to bet he finishes better then your Uncle Mo did in last years Wood!

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Ranagulzion — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 20:49:47 GMT

Slew,

From my spaceship? (LOL) I'm having a birds eye view from way up here ...gotta escape the parochial mind set and tunnel vision of many on here.

Okay Slew, Secretariat was much ahead with seven victories out of nine starts but the crop he raced against wasn't really deep. From my viewpoint, had U/Rags won the BCJ he might have been voted HOTY in view of the kind of year that was 2011 ...do you follow me?

Just watch and see if I know what i'm talking about on May 5. One thing I ask, recerve judgment until then. Okay?

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Ranagulzion — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 20:33:35 GMT

JAY JAY,

Let my analysis and conclusion be tested on the track. I rest my case.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

JayJay — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 17:16:43 GMT

Thank you Footlick, I knew I wasn't crazy. Three percent probably will take him to 8.5 furlongs, maybe 9 but pushing it. BC Mile should be his target this year IMO.

Ranagulzion : Seriously man, I think you're reaching, like deep, for something to prove that UR doesn't have distance limitations. He may not, he may have the trip of his life. The flood of horses part ways like the red sea and starts backing up to give him a clear path and win the Derby easily. Weird things can happen in the Kentucky Derby. I just don't think you have to make up some crazy stuff to prove something.

If we all go back 5 gens deep, anyone can find what they want to find to justify their arguments. How about you go back 3 gens, and base on his races THIS year, do you still think he's the best horse out there and that he will win the Triple Crown ? Believe it or not, I'm trying to save you money here and save face because proclaiming him the 2012 TC winner when he hasn't even won the Derby is ridiculous. I know you know this, you're not dumb. It was probably the heat of the moment after he lost the Florida Derby.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Footlick — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 14:42:28 GMT

Approximate Percent Blood Influence per Generation

In pedigrees, the first generation is an individual’s parents.

If the ancestor appears in the ____ generation, then it contributes ____ blood to an individual

first generation = 50.00 percent

second generation = 25.00 percent

third generation = 12.50 percent

fourth generation = 6.25 percent

fifth generation = 3.125 percent

sixth generation = 1.5625 percent

seventh generation = 0.78125 percent

eighth generation = 0.390625 percent

just saying............

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

JayJay — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 02:52:11 GMT

Ranagulzion : All I can say is "WOW", and I mean "WOW!!"... like "WOW!!!!!"

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Ranagulzion — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 01:48:27 GMT

jay jay,

You gave me a good laugh with that Madonna quip. Not bad (LOL)

But seriously, it doesn'y matter if Hyperion is from the thirties, thats how genetic traits are preserved, by being passed on from generation to generation. Hyperion appears 6X7X8 on top (Dixie Union's half) of the Pedigree matrix and 8X7X5 on the bottom (Tempo half) of the pedigree. Hyperion is recorded as being a very lazy/sleepy horse from birth, so much so that they didn't think that he was much of a runner, but he won the Epsom Derby in record time and the St Leger as well. Union Rags has turned out the very same way. His owners/breeders didn't think that with his lazy, slumbering ways he would turn out to be a good race horse and that was part of the reason that he was put up for sale inspite of his good looks. He carries the 1930s classy traits of Hyperion into the 21st century my friend. Watch and enjoy.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

JayJay — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 00:26:34 GMT

LOL Ranagulzion, you mentioned Hyperion as the most influential on UR's pedigree ?? Hyperion's from the thirties!!! You think his genes still has an affect in today's horses ?? Seriously ?? I think you're just pulling my leg with all this nonsense. You're making me look these things up and then you'll go "Gotcha!!" You can't be serious about Hyperion are you?!? I also found Gainsborough who is SIX generations back. Oh my goodness, I think I'll stop trying to understand pedigree handicapping and stick to mini mini miney mo. I'll take my chances.

Anyone else here know anything about pedigree?? Can someone let me know if Ranagulzion is being serious or not ?

I see Madonna 5 generations back on UR, does that mean he can't sing either ?? LOL

www.pedigreequery.com/union+rags

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

JayJay — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 00:05:16 GMT

Ranagulzion : So your pedigree analysis of going deeper than the 1st 3 generations is specific to UR ? I'm not clear because Gemologist is by Tiznow, so we believe he'll get the 9 and 10Fs. You just posted he'll romp without any mention of his pedigree. I'm just trying to understand your logic. If a horses 1st 3 generations shows they may have distance limitation, you dig deeper until you find the ones that would give him stamina and make him a superhorse ? otherwise, the 1st 3 generations would suffice. Did I get that right ?

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Slew — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 23:28:08 GMT

Ranagul...you said "I don't think that Secretariat was that far ahead of this colt(Union Rags) at this stage of his career"

What? Are you bananas?

Secretariat was Horse of the Year at 2, having had 9 races at age 2, and winning 7 of them.

Maybe you should climb down from your spaceship and check out things here on earth more closely.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Ranagulzion — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 20:10:25 GMT

jay jay,

I thought that I was being generous, calling the quality/standard of the pedigree analysis juvenile, that was based only on the perception of Dixie Union as passing on stamina deficiency. Actually I felt that infantile was a more accurate description but applied restraint.

You've got to go deeper than that to get a fair grasp of the quality in a really good thoroughbred. If the first three generations (which are generally most influential) were all that mattered, breeders and connoisseurs of the sport wouldn't be looking for inbreeding to the likes of Blue hen mare La Troinne, Almahmoud, Princequillo, Count Fleet, Nasrullah and all time great sire Hyperion which are to be found usually beyond the five-cross pedigree matrix. Superficial pedigree inquiry will not show the presence of five triple crown winners from England and America in Union Rags' pedigree, namely Gainsborough, Nijinsky, War Admiral, Secretariat and Seattle Slew. My findings show that Gainsborough's son, Epsom Derby and St Leger winner Hyperion as the most influential presence in Union Rags. Therefore there is no doubt here about his stamina.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

trackjack — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 19:06:56 GMT

Mary Higgins: It was Kansas-Ohio State. Ohio had previously lost to North Carolina. I'm sure it was just a slip-up, unlike the Michigan football coach and more recently their basketball coach who refer to Ohio State as Ohio. I wonder if the Michigan basketball coach knew which 'Ohio' he lost to in the first round by a score of 65-60.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Ranagulzion — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:38:36 GMT

Gemologist will trounce the Wood Memorial field. It will be a romp.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Smarty Jones Jr. — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:26:52 GMT

Ok, Love reading the blogs from afar, everyweek. I feel inclined to comment to the entertaining analysis of Florida Derby.

Any true horseman or handicapper knows a 1:12.09 will NOT cut it in Derby, race basically "stole" by Borel. It was over for Union Rags in first turn, unfortunately. If the horse was 12:1 shot and had same race as Union Rags, he would be the "wise guy" derby choice coming out of Florida. Hence, no whip in stretch, no speed shown early from jock, Florida Derby NOT the goal, all that was needed was STAY OUTTA TROUBLE.

Union Rags did all he needed to do, get the bottom up under him for May 5th peak performance, and more experience with Leparoux. The fractions were horribly slow, and Castellano should have sensed it and pressed pace,instead of "riding" UR. He selfishly and unfair to El Padrino's connections put him on Derby bubble.

Union Rags should be tight like a drum for Derby day, and his works will reflex it pre-derby (notice pre Florida Derby works, anyone?)

Also, the "Beyer" madness is crazy, who really believes Rags FOY under hand ride just shy of track record, was less "speed fig" than Mark V, El Padrino, Bodeimeister 2x??(still love how they changed his to triple digits 2 weeks after race, to give him two 100+beyers) while getting whipped like stepchildren coming down stretch.

So when betting MY money, which is "the name of the game" Union Rags is the most proven, with the most upside to "pop" on May 5th.

*Draynay, I also agree with your analysis on this subject

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

JayJay — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:17:58 GMT

Ranagulzion : You calling people who disagreed with your analysis of UR's pedigree "juvenile" seems a little harsh don't you think ? You go 5 generations back to justify your argument for his stamina and keep ignoring Dixie Union. He ran one time at 9F, how can you tell that he doesn't have any distance limitations from watching that one race ? I don't know if he can actually run 10F but I'll wait and see how he looks in the post parade and what post he draws. All of that will help me decide whether I put money on him. I may drop him altogether because Julien is riding him.

My list of horses for the derby will keep changing as the preps are run, that's what the preps are for. I'm high on Gemologist, he's by Tiznow so I think 9 and 10F suits him just fine but I'm not crowning him the derby winner because I haven't seen him run 9F. I don't even know if he'll win the Wood. I felt the same way about Spring Hill Farm and look what happened in the TBD. My point is, you can like UR all you want, tout him, but at least be realistic. The title of "TC proclaimer" is already taken, Draynay has own it for the last decade. Stop trying to take it away from him. He worked hard for it, he's earned it.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

JayJay — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:16:54 GMT

Billy Joe Bob Jim : With regards to the Dubai ticket, I mentioned that I totally forgot about my P3, you need to actually read my comments. I'm not gonna lie, my bets in the Dubai races were all guesses, there's nothing in the program for the Dubai races that would help me pick a winner. I pick those horses based on jockeys and owners. The first leg, I just picked Murtagh, no other info, just thought if a longshot comes in, it could be Murtagh. The 2nd leg, I picked the 2 favorites and another longshot, nothing else. The last leg, the 8 horse is owned by Godolphin and was 10-1 morning line. The 11 horse I picked because of Ajtebi, it was a $12 investment and I almost got it. As for my "pick" at the time of the race, I picked those horses near the post time and again, I made picks based on the odds. You know why I didn't pick the 8 then, I saw he was 10-1 morning line and was at 35-1 at post time. I just gave you one of my basic handicapping angles, it's called watching the odds. I forgot about my P3 ticket as I bet it the day before (around 5PM). Like I said in my post, I only remembered my P3 ticket after the 8 won, Monterosso, it rang a bell and it's because i had him on my P3.

The funny thing is, YOU are the only one complaining about me posting tickets. You know why, I post my winning tickets TO Draynay and KY VET, just to them. I'm sure other people could care less. You on the other hand, are so jealous that you can't stop commenting about it lol. You are vain, the proof is your never ending attempt to get noticed on this blog, I mean dude, Draynay doesn't even pay attention to you. I can't remember the last time he replied to you. For all the things you say about me, you pay way too much attention to me. What does that say about you? Desperate, that's what.

LOL at "stay classy"… this coming from you. I challenge you to stop thinking about me for 15 minutes, let's see if you can do it :) I know you can't. So once again, I made you look like a fool. Like I said, you posted 3 comments the other day, one to ask Draynay out on a date and two were for me and Draynay ignored you. You posted one long comment yesterday and it was all for me. I think anyone reading this blog would actually agree that you're obsessed with me. It's okay, keep 'em coming, it's hilarious. Now…. we know you can pick a winner by picking on me :), let's see if you can pick a winner in the upcoming prep races.

The only people that I would expect to respond to my winning tickets are Draynay and KY VET, to show both that one can win without using the form. That's it, nothing else. If you weren't jealous, you wouldn't spend this much blog space on me lol. Pathetic.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Ranagulzion — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 16:51:23 GMT

Gun Bow,

So you think that my forcast of Union Rags as Triple Crown winner 2012 is pure hope and positivity? You're only partially right. Thanks for the kind thoughts though.

Actually my views are based on hard core assessment of the colts performances, pedigree, imposing physical attributes and connections including the trainer. I spotted this horse as a special 2YO that should've won the Eclipse award and I have seen nothing so far that dampens my enthusiasm about his chances of being the "Big horse" of 2012 and 3YO wonder. The biggest negative so far has been the relatively low Beyer speed figures but that has its pluses, in that he hasn't had to run himself ragged before the triple crown gets started and he's been winning with good excuses for the two losses.

There are a few other very talented colts on the Triple Crown trail that could challenge him but I have seen enough of his explosive stretch kick to believe quite firmly that when michael matz has him tuned-to-the-minute, he'll crush the opposition and register the Beyer figures corresponding to his huhe talent.

I don't think that Secretariat was that far ahead of this colt at this stage of his career. People tend to compare the up and coming super stars unfairly against the past ones that were the finished product. Union Rags is only just beginning to rise my friend.

Smoking Baby,

Thanks. I don't think that being thin-skinned is one of my traits. I kinda enjoy the rough and tumble of opposing viewpoints but I do value honest and principled debaiting of the issues.

re: All Eyes on Union Rags

Mary Zinke — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 16:44:41 GMT

She had some of it coming to her, but the one guy is obviously afraid of per-(No need to say more; he already covered his eyes.)