Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Ted from LA — Wed, 23 May 2012 21:45:22 GMT

The last word.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Weekend — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 13:51:02 GMT

El PAdrino will get in, Drill is out. He flew back to Cali...

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Mike Monarchos — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 14:22:37 GMT

That 5 horse box wouldn't include Scatman cauz he won't get in.

I read that Wrote won't be coming to Louisville. And Trinnenburg is unlikely to according to his owner. That would jump El Padrino up to number 21 on the graded earnings list. Looks like he might get in.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

LAZMANNICK — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 04:33:22 GMT

I don't lie Draynay. That's one thing I've never done. You on the other hand leave a lot to be desired. Anytime you want to have a go on the intelligence scale let me know.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Mary Zinke — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 01:14:10 GMT

Not the only measurement some of these guys lie about, I bet.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Mike Monarchos — Mon, 16 Apr 2012 01:09:59 GMT

Thanks furlongs,

Even a blind squrril gets a nut once in awhile. Bodemeister got a 105 Beyer for his Arkansas Derby romp. He now has Beyers of 101, 101, and 105 in his last 3 races. He could win the Derby wire to wire.

Dullahan only got a 98 for the Bluegrass, so that track was fast on Sat. Hansen got a 96. It's strange that the top two in the 2011 B.C. Juvenile have not progressed Beyer-wise as 3 yr. olds. The only colts with 100+ Beyers this year are Bode, Secret Circle, Creative Cause, Scatman, El Padrino, and Daddy Nose Best. Those are horses that are still on the Derby trail in races of a mile or more. That might be a good 6 horse box for the Derby. Although I don't know if Secret Circle can get the distance?

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Draynay — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 23:28:49 GMT

Union Rags.

DNB

Alpha

Creative Cause

Dullahan

Am I good or what !!! Now you know why I am the Derby Master.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Rinzler — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 20:46:26 GMT

I actually like Went the Day Well. It looks like he has been the one training for a race that requires stamina over speed. He doesn't seem to have that explosive turn of foot, but he does appear to get the steam going when he turns for home. He might be able to grind out a win on that last furlong. And I like his stride/motion.

On another note: Creative Cause - he does have the correct running style; I looked over the videos from all his races and found something peculiar about him - except for the Del Mar Futurity where he was checked at the wire, he seems to 'win' on the gallop out as he ends up first by the time they reach halfway around the turn after the wire; he may be screaming for more ground.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

furlongs — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 14:28:06 GMT

It aint easy being good! aka DRAYNAY,

Nice call on Bode being over rated! Did Wayne Lucas call you and give you that info?

Congrats nice call on Bedemeister Mike... The 11 post scared me away totally and I worried about him bouncing a little after a hard race vs CC but man he ran them off their feet!Wonder when Draynay is going to jump off Union Rags and Daddy Nose Best? Should be any day now...

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Old Timer — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 12:03:16 GMT

Okay. Morning after and Bodemeister did not just win the Arkansas Derby. Bode WINS the AD.

I guess that puts him in the mix with single digit odds.

Nice call on Dullahan, Jason. I guess that puts Hansen a bit longer odds and Dullahan at lower odds. Is Dullahan just a horse for Keeneland? I still have to respect Romans, who also almost pulled it off with Paddy O'Prado.

I see Take Charge Indy at lower odds due to Calvin, but I sure can't like him to win.

Then did I read correctly that Mike Smith rides that smashing Arkanasas Derby but now will ride Daddy Nose Best in Louisville? It gets more complex every day!

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Draynay — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 04:44:16 GMT

Laz nice try but I caught you lying so get lost. 98% on a IQ test....lol... what BS. If you are going to lie on here lie about something you know about.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Mike Monarchos — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 02:39:07 GMT

Bodemeister did pretty well for a cokt breaking from the 11 post. You couldn't overlook those Beyers of his. I didn't make that much on the race though, because I bet a dollar tri with Bode, Secret Circle/Bode, Secret Circle/ Cozzetti, Stat, Najjaar, Isn't He Clever, Optimizer, & Sabercat. The tri didn't pay well with Sabercat third. I should have put some money on Bode to win, since I said he was a lock! That's why I don't win much. I make stupid bets. Thebn again, I'm not a member of mensa or minstral or what ever Draynay's a member of????

In the Bluegrass I keyed Hansen and Prospective over most of the other horses in a tri. I also played an exacta box with Prospective, Hanson, & Dullahan, but it didn't pay much. I still did better than the guy who's "never wrong" though!

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

LAZMANNICK — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 00:48:33 GMT

HEy Draynay the fake mensa man: Boxes and W/P bets on Prospective-Ever So Lucky and Optimizer-Isn't He Clever........they sure weren't talking about you. Rookie!

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Householder — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 00:15:03 GMT

Nice hit Mike M on Bodemeister. Way to stick to your guns!!!

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Householder — Sun, 15 Apr 2012 00:14:22 GMT

It is easy being dead wrong. Let me know what your pick is in the Derby as I will certainly bet against it.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

LAZMANNICK — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 17:33:45 GMT

Dray

If you never brag about it (this isn't the first time you've brought it up) then what do you think you're trying to do now. Its well known that you are the master of BS.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

JayJay — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 17:30:19 GMT

Laz : Don't fall for it, I doubt very much that he scored 138. He probably knows someone that knows someone that's a friend of someone who scored 138. LOL

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Draynay — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 14:48:27 GMT

I never brag about it and I rarely talk about it because over the years I have discovered it makes people uncomfortable. I was merely commenting on the FACT that your 98% on a "series of IQ test" is bogus BS and you should try to sell that garbage somewhere else where people may not know better.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

LAZMANNICK — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 05:37:32 GMT

Dray

Scoring 138 doesn’t mean much when dealing with superior minds. You need to exceed 140 to reach a level to brag.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Racingfan — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 04:22:23 GMT

If I remember correctly the LAST Horse of the Year to LOSE in The Breeders Cup is STILL racing Jason...

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Mike Monarchos — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 02:16:37 GMT

BODEMEISTER IS A LOCK in the Arkansas Derby. Baffert's taking off the blinkers and wins at 38% when he does. Bode has back-to-back 101 Beyers and no other Derby prospect has done that this year.

He's by Empire Maker and out of a Storm Cat mare so distance shouldn't be a problem. He has a 411 Tomlinson rating for the distance, and a 440 wet rating. He also has Mike Smith which is much better than Jason or a dwarf. LOL!!!! I'll key him on top of Secret Circle, Isn't He Clever, Optimizer, Sabercat, and either Stat or Najjaar. Remember, I'm almost never right!

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Draynay — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 01:00:05 GMT

138

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

LAZMANNICK — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 22:24:56 GMT

Dray

Really? How did you score on the Binet Intelligence Scales?

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Draynay — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 21:30:44 GMT

Laz, I have been a member of Mensa since I scored 1280 on my SAT as a Junior in HS 1981. I have never heard of a "series of IQ test" to establish qualifications into Mensa. Maybe you can educate me and name the test or tests that "scored" you at 98%.

re: Derby Betting: Plenty of Parity at the Top

Footlick — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 21:24:06 GMT

No problem. I liked the comment about little Ta Wee carrying 140 also.