Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Ted from LA — Wed, 23 May 2012 21:35:04 GMT

The last word.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

anddownthestretch — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 15:45:33 GMT

JayJay so you are going to see Rachel in Kentucky. Draynay if you are not going to key UR then you need to stop with the insanity of saying how great this horse is.You would save a ton of money but i guess because you are the greatest(LOL)then if you could give out a winner that would be great. Have been doing this for 30 yrs. and you are the guy who claims that he never loses but won't give out a winner.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Draynay — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 01:44:48 GMT

Yes a 6 horse box. Cost 360 bucks. Have you ever bet on the Derby before ? You think a 6 horse box is unheard of in the Derby ? Rookie.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

CHIEF PICAWINNA — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 23:33:28 GMT

Im playing alotta horse exacta box,with a twist, I actually played mostly partial exacta wheels and did so in installments.Derby Future pools 1,2,3.This year I waited to make my largest purchase in pool 3,because I lost the bet last year after my runners started dropping like flies that I bet in pools 1 and 2.I hope to win it this year to increase my win percentage to .750 3 out of 4 years that I have played it.I even had Mine that Bird but only in the futures.Pioneer Of The Nile I had in everything,he came in 2nd but I made a lot more than I bet,which is my goal as a horseplayer.I dont get caught up in what the industry would like and that is to only pick 1 horse and 1 outcome.To me that is how the 2012 Derby should be bet if you want to wait 2 weeks and try to cash in an easier leg 2 of the triple crown.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

chas — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 19:51:05 GMT

i believe hansen's last race was nothing more than a public workout.

1st. gemologist....2nd. hansen....3rd. union rags.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 15:56:42 GMT

" Why is Mr. Porter selling her and not keeping her as a broodmare?"

Many racing stables do not breed their own horses, preferring to buy at the the sales. Breeding is a very different business from racing. Moreover, to buy more racing prospects, Mr. Porter needs the proceeds he will realize when he sells Grace. Had she been a colt, he would have syndicated him (sell him in shares).

Does it matter what stud she goes to? She is a valuable property that can only be bought by a high-end breeder; she will be treated well and sent to top-end stallions, because her foals will be worth mega-$ at the sales.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

plodderman — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 13:21:54 GMT

RAGS - Head and shoulders the best!! Yet draynay BOXES 6 horses. He even handicaps them before the entires and PP's come out. I for one am glad that I have a tax free income form guys like Draynay who have a horse that IS HEAD AND SHOULDERS above the rest, yet he BOXES 6 of them. WARNING WILL ROBINSON: The great Draynay went 0-5 last week. He may very well hit the Derby super, or even have the winner, but I suspect a close miss and him still cashing a ticket for "just enough" to show a profit. I LOVE Alpha, but am sane enough to realize that the draw plays a big part of the equation. After all - I take part of the 18%-25% take they get from Draynay's wagers EVERY TIME I MAKE A BET. Thanks Dray. Keep on "GAMBLING". 6 horse box...LOL

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

JayJay — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 07:42:17 GMT

Billy : Damn, I didn't know it was that big of a deal there. I didn't realize they get that many people in on Fridays, that's great to hear then. It's in my bucket list, to watch both the Oaks, the Derby and basically visit Churchill Downs. Thanks for the info.

Yeah, that money goes to the piggy bank, once it goes in there it's no longer mine. It's the kid's college fund. I'll probably go next year, this year, I plan to spend a week at Del Mar when it's live racing. I will make it to Churchill Downs sooner or later. I'll need more than a weekend if I go there, and I need to make sure I see the greatest mare ever, . I have no idea who to contact to make that kind of arrangement.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Shelby's Best Pal — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 03:00:27 GMT

The comments and perspectives in this blog are very interesting and analytical. However, I am feeling like keeping it simple. Bodemeister is the fastest horse.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Matthew W — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 23:22:05 GMT

Geronimo Bodemiester did rate last time

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Alex'sBigFan — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 22:45:02 GMT

Unfortunate for Havre de Grace and I hope her injury heals fast. Why is Mr. Porter selling her and not keeping her as a broodmare? Everything changes for her now. And the article said she could be bred at any time? Well I would wait until the injury is healed and would not chance putting the excess weight of pregnancy on any limbs until she is healed. Why risk uneven weight distrubution with an injury?

My two cents on the Afleet Alex comment by Sal, for after all, I am Alex's biggest fan. If I recall trainer Tim Ritchey said Alex got bumped pretty good a couple times in the '05 Derby. He still got up to catch the front runner in spite of it. And Jeremy was a young rather inexperienced rider at that time. They went on to do miraculous things in the next two legs of the TC. And Alex was voted in SI as one of the most amazing animals EVER. Yes, to say he was a near TC winner I think is correct, and it was a length in that Derby between him and Giacomo, not several lengths. Alex "passed Giacomo like he was standing still" in the Belmont to quote Durkin and won by 7 lengths. But I say Alex had the 2 yr. old foundation under him to know how to get himself out of the Derby traffic jam, something the other Arkansas Derby winner Bode may not have enough of (the 2 yr. old foundation).

Still saying Hansen and Bode to the end or one of the mid packs closers gets it like CC, IHA, or Gem. Would not surprise me if Valeski or Went The Day Well shows in the money.

Now gotta go to the Derby site to see if they have video of any arrivals or paddock school!!!!!

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Weekend — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 21:00:53 GMT

you just won 2 g's Jayjay, book a flight and buy some tickets, you can afford it, right.... see you in 10 days

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Weekend — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 19:37:40 GMT

Jayjay, it is called money. They get 100k people to the track on Friday, 150-170k to the track on Saturday. The Oaks is great. The lines are not as long, a lot of the locals can afford to go to the oaks and sit in a box, and you can pad your bankroll going into Saturday. The schools are out, no one works, and it is a celebration, that will never change. If you ever came here, you would know why it is on Friday. There is a huge party the week leading up to the Oaks/Derby, including the Great Steamboat Race (wed), the Ballon race, the Derby Parade (Thursday) the Chow wagon, the Run for the Rose, I could go on. Best time of the year in KY, hands down. Plus, the people watching for 2 days is insane. Just show up and see for yourself...

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

furlongs — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 18:32:53 GMT

I say if DONE TALKING wins the KY Derby we all need to bow to our knees to COLDFACTS becuase that is the greatest pick of all time... I mean in an off year anyone can win (mine that bird)but this years crop is way to solid I think for a horse that is that slow to win the roses... Good luck Coldfacts

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

JayJay — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 17:59:14 GMT

Is there any reason why they are not running the Kentucky Oaks on a Saturday (a week before the Derby) ? Why do they run it on Fridays? It's suppose to showcase the best fillies in the country. There'll be more people betting the race, and more people watching it. It doesn't make sense, unless it's "history" and "it's always been that way".

I'm rooting for the locals in the RTTR contest : TRIPLE MMM STABLES and Proctor Stables I. Hope they got the right horses for the Derby. There's less than 25 points separating the top 20. Wish I was one of them lol.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

deb — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 17:16:39 GMT

All are really great horses and it will be a race! but....I am rooting for Bode, mostly because he is a VA bred at the home of Sir Barton (thanks for the great article on him) Sir Barton is one of my favorite horses and I like seeing another VA horse in the running, maybe there are others but I like his style, his looks and his birth place.

Y'know though, Mr. Borel could run away with the whole thing again!!

Everyone be safe on the trip.....

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Draynay — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 16:09:09 GMT

Union is clearly the best horse in here boys wake up.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Draynay — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 16:02:48 GMT

My $360 Super is ready and I am boxing 6.

Union Rags, DNB, Alpha, Dullahan, Creative Cause and Gemologist. Exacta box will be Union, DNB and Dullahan ... I will also do a Exacta Box with Alpha replacing DNB. Union Rags WP ... Rags is head and shoulders the best in here.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

JayJay — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 08:38:29 GMT

Draynay : Read the very first post on blog, it was you saying betting on Bode and Gem is a waste of money. Your recent posts says now you're thinking Gemologist is your 5th horse. By the start of next week, you'll be proclaiming him the Triple Crown winner and on May 4th, you will declare him the HOTY. LOL

So what do you think of Bejarano picking El Padrino who's been on the shelf for awhile over Alpha. It had to hurt your feelings right ? One of the top jockeys in the country and he picked El Padrino over your 2nd pick behind UR. Ouch!

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

JayJay — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 08:13:09 GMT

KY Vet : HAHAHA, you sound a little bitter. My "guess" handicapping netted me over 2grand this weekend, how did you do ? You're always commenting on "knowing" who is NOT going to win, how about you get some cajones this time and actually pick a horse that WILL win. You're so worried about being wrong and losing your PRO status, I say don't worry, NO ONE here actually thinks you're a PRO.

This is pretty evident because 2 MINUTES to post time, the first thing you thought about was to POST here that you cancelled your ticket. How did you even post on the blog 2 minutes before post time ? Were you racing the clock to make sure your post make it before they ran ??

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Geronimo2123 — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 04:45:29 GMT

What has Hansen, Hard Spun, Big Brown and other recent Derby speed horse done that Bodemeister has yet to do?

Answer: Rate and win--Win other than in wire to wire fashion. Bode is yet to rate and win. He has been passed twice in the stretch when rating just off the lead. The other horse above, while dangerous on the lead, all showed the ability to relax and rate just off the lead and draw off powerfully at 1 mile or above.

Considering the fact that Bode's E1 and E2 pace figures are dwarfed by Hansen and Trinniberg (Bode's figs are much lower than Hansen) what is going to happen if Bode needs the lead but cannot get it, or rates and once again fails to draw away when assuming the lead?

Its an awful lot to ask of such a lightly seasoned colt. He will have to do something he has never done before to win the Derby: Rate and Hold off the stalkers and closers.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Matthew W — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 04:26:13 GMT

Coldfacts I know you love Done Talking, he won that race in Illinois, remember "every race has a winner", doesn't mean a winner won the race, they crawled home, you'll get a huge price--but so would I (I'll Have Another), tested v Creative Cause/will fetch 10-1 and can see him winning big---Your analysis betrays you: The breeding for the tenth furlong? Vs the likes of this deep of a field, you are hoping his ability to get the tenth furlong will trump a large batch of horses who look much better? Good luck with that! I am setting you up for that home run swing, you'll get 25-1 at least, and bragging rights for--ever?!

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Bob from Boston — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 04:13:19 GMT

Why would Matz take Julien Leparoux off Union Rags and put Jared Fogle on him? It defies reason.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

GunBow — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 04:08:05 GMT

A few more surprising facts about Bourbon Bay(with the recognition that these races no longer carry the importance, the purse, nor the gr.1 status of the past). But still....

Since 1989, the most weight carried to victory in the San Juan Capistrano Handicap is 122 lbs. Bien Bien did it in 1994, and his son Bienamado did it in 2001. Bourbon Bay joined the 122 lbs list in 2010, and when he won yesterday he again carried 122 lbs. So, Bourbon Bay, twice, is tied for the highest weighted winner since 89'.

Second, Boubon Bay is now the only horse to ever sweep the San Luis Rey and San Juan Capistrano twice. He did it in 2010 and this year.

On a side note, thanks to the connections of Eagle Poise and Harrods Creek, and their trainers, Motion and Mott, for shipping their horses out for the San Juan. Without those two horses the race would have been a far cry from the thriller I witnessed yesterday. Motion and Mott for years have displayed great sportsmanship in their willingness to ship to California. I for one appreciate them for this.

re: Poll: Who is Your Preliminary Derby Pick?

Ted from LA — Tue, 24 Apr 2012 04:07:41 GMT

*Fogle.

See. I didn't even know how to spell his name.