Why They Can/Can't Win

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Ted from LA — Wed, 23 May 2012 21:33:25 GMT

The last word.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

JayJay — Sat, 05 May 2012 06:47:01 GMT

Billy : Not if someone is claiming UR as the best and winner before the race. It's called having the balls to back his words...which Draynay doesn't seem to have. He bets me $100 not for UR to win, but to place higher LOL. What a joke.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

JayJay — Sat, 05 May 2012 05:46:02 GMT

Draynay : Just like you picked Grace Hall right ? You prove over and over again, you have no idea what you're doing. Stick to quarterhorses, thoroughbred racing is a man's game.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Draynay — Fri, 04 May 2012 16:02:28 GMT

Gemologist ahead of Union ???? Jayjay you know nothing and prove it over and over again.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

JayJay — Thu, 03 May 2012 09:35:24 GMT

Draynay : Okay, I'm happy with 15 hole, I'm picking Gemologist to finish ahead of Union Rags. Good luck to UR.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Mary Zinke — Wed, 02 May 2012 23:37:05 GMT

Why would anyone want these blog comments to be boring after U.R. loses?

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Weekend — Wed, 02 May 2012 18:42:08 GMT

dumb bet, 1 horse v 20, give it a rest

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

JayJay — Wed, 02 May 2012 06:21:46 GMT

Draynay : STOP AVOIDING UNION BUSTER's CHALLENGE. If Union Rags doesn't win, you leave, if UR wins, he leaves. It's a simple bet. You're still yapping but ignoring his challenge. GET SOME CAJONES and back your horse like he's the real deal. You do nothing but yap about nonsense lol.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

JayJay — Wed, 02 May 2012 05:56:52 GMT

Criminal Type : Oh duh. I should've known it was a horse's name, was before my horse racing career started (Gamblin' Engineer). Thanks for the explanation. I still think UR will not hit the board though hehe. If Gemologist wins, I may change my blog name to TizJay. Klepto sounds like a good name...for Draynay, he keeps stealing the hyped horse as his pick.

Jason : Thanks for the confirmation.

Draynay : I'll post my horse that will finish ahead of Union Rags on Thursday after the draw. Just to be clear, it's whoever's horse finishes higher. Now it's time for you to step up and stop being a hen and ignoring Union Buster's challenge. BAWK!

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Greg R — Wed, 02 May 2012 05:01:43 GMT

Like the pros vs. cons format of this article.

Can't help wondering whether Take Charge Indy will take big step forward in Derby. His FL Derby has been sniffed at by most, but he only needed to do what he had to do to win and he couldn't help that it was a speed-favoring track, etc. Doesn't mean he wouldn't have won with a different sort of trip or different surface. He was just ready. Now, he'll be even more ready with that under his belt. Isn't he the one that is inbred to Secretariat?! You don't see that very often!

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Draynay — Tue, 01 May 2012 23:49:07 GMT

jayjay you and Union Buster step up and pick a horse. My money is in you picked the great Dialed In last year step up and choke again.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

JayJay — Tue, 01 May 2012 21:27:59 GMT

Jason : Do you have Draynay's money, it should be $100, not $10. Please confirm so we can get this thing going with Mr. Yap.

Draynay : So you're taking Union Buster's challenge, if UR doesn't win you'll go away forever. It's official. Once Jason confirms he has your money, I'll post my horse that will finish ahead of UR in the Derby, on Thursday.

Ted From LA : That video was interesting, no, it was fascinating. I couldn't figure out what the wings are for on his shoulders though. I wonder if he was a pilot.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Criminal Type — Tue, 01 May 2012 20:51:03 GMT

I cant believe I said Criminal Type was a Bay when I know damn well he was a chestnut like his sire. I saw him win the Pimlico Special in person. My bad, it's been a long ass day.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Weekend — Tue, 01 May 2012 20:39:34 GMT

trackjack, I have Gemologist and Rags on the top of my ticket, waiting for the posts to put a third on top, but it will be between Alpha, Ill HAve Another, and Hansen, with DNB, Sabercat, TCI, El Padrino and Liason Underneath. I am only using 8 underneath for the tri wheel, so 2 will have to be tossed when posts come out....

I am tossing CC, Dullahan, Went the Day Well, Trinniberg, Prospective, Done talking, Optimzer, Rousing Sermon, and Daddy Long Legs.

Bode is the only horse I am really stumped on. Is 3 weeks too short? Can he win while being behind horses? I hate the way he looks in the morning

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Criminal Type — Tue, 01 May 2012 20:38:45 GMT

MARY CONGRATS YOU NAILED IT !

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Criminal Type — Tue, 01 May 2012 20:37:41 GMT

JayJay, LOL ! Don't you worry, I wont hurt you. The origins are no secret to long time racing fans. I am sure there are a couple dozen people who frequent this blog who could tell you. No bet necessary. Go back to 1975 when a gorgeous Chestnut colt was born at Calumet Farm and went on to finish second in all three triple crown races in 1977 (the only horse ever to do that) That horse was Alydar. Continue on until 1985 When a lovely bay colt was born from the mating of said Alydar and a mare by No Robbery called Klepto. He was later named TA DA ! Criminal Type.

He started his career on grass in Europe but returned to the states and into the barn of D Wayne Lucas after a lackluster career there. At age four, Criminal Type began to show promise on U.S. dirt tracks, then at age five he won seven of eleven races and earned two Eclipse Awards including the most prestigious award of all, the Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year. Criminal Type won four consecutive Grade 1 races: The Pimlico Special, the Metropolitan Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, and the Whitney Handicap. In his wins, Criminal Type defeated 1989 Horse of the Year, Sunday Silence, eventual 1991 Horse of the Year, Black Tie Affair, U.S. Outstanding Sprint Horse Housebuster, and winner of the Eclipse Award for Outstanding 2-Year-Old Male Horse and Hall of Famer, 1989 Belmont Stakes winner Easy Goer. Other quality horses vanquished by Criminal Type include Opening Verse, Lively One, Ruhlmann, and Flying Continental. Criminal Type was the last champion to run in the Calumet Farm devil's red and blue color. (I plagerized this paragraph from Wikipedia because its easier to copy and paste then type it all out)

Of the many talented sons of ALydar, He was my favorite. Sadly, This was the same time period as the debacle that caused the bankruptcy and auction of Calumet and all of its horses. Criminal Type was eventually sold to the japanese for stud. In 2005 after being pensioned at age 20 he was all set to return to the US to live out his life at KHP when he ruptured stomach and died. There you have it. It has nothing to do with a violent or nefarious past on my part.

Criminal Type is also known for being the broodmare sire of Travers winner Ten Most Wanted.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

trackjack — Tue, 01 May 2012 17:40:52 GMT

Billy: Add my thanks for your updates. I appreciate your input. I hope you get a good look at Gemologist, El Padrino and Take Charge Indy when they get in.

After watching many replays(too many according to my wife) Gemologist looks like the only contender that will put himself in a forward comfortable position and wait for the rider to call on him. If the pace is slow, he'll take it or lay off the speed. Even if he gets knocked around in traffic and pushed out as in the Wood, he will put himself back into a striking distance and wait on the rider. He seems to have the other horses around him measured as he showed against Alpha. Gemologist actually shifted gears twice at the end of the Wood. First, when Alpha came up next to him, he extended his neck and pushed forward a stride or two and, realizing he needed to do more, he quickly accelerated and in 3 or 4 strides as they came to the wire, he pulled away by a 1/2 to 3/4 of a length. IMO he is unbothered by the others around him, will run his own forward cruising style no matter the pace and wait for the rider to call on him to accelerate. With his Tiznow breeding and two wins over the track, this is a winning Derby style. I just wish Pletcher would have had him at CD earlier.

Bodemeister has the numbers and speed but he was bothered running in and with others in the San Felipe and finished up looking washed behind Creative Cause. His Arkansas Derby was spectacular and his last work shows me he is still on his game but I have my doubts with his inexperience as to how he will handle the rush with the others with similar running styles.

Union Rags is coming up to this in perfect form for Michael Matz and certainly deserves respect and would not be surprised if he runs past them all.

I'll Have Another looks super in his gallops and would not surprise if he does it.

Creative Cause has been right there in all his races and he would not surprise but I have some doubts with his antics in the stretch and changes in equipment.

Daddy Nose Best is training superbly at CD and would not surprise if he runs them all down.

Of course all this may change after PP's.

I offered this idea back in early March during the Draynay vs. KY VET challenge (BTW how did that work out?) with little response.

How about Jason stakes us all with $100. in play money for the Derby.

Conditions:

1. Minimun $20 win bet on YOUR Derby pick.

2. Balance on any combination of WPS/Ex/Tri.

3. Bets to be posted by noon on Derby Day so we have the rest of the day to agonize over our real bets.

The winner would be the blogger who has the winner AND the highest total winnings. This puts everyone on here on equal footing. The winner would have bragging rights as the true BEST Derby handicapper on this blog.

Any thoughts? Any takers?

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Ranagulzion — Tue, 01 May 2012 17:25:38 GMT

Coldfacts,

You shouldn't be mentioning trends to me while you're still touting Alpha and Done Talking.

The cold facts of Derby tremds are:

1) No son or grandson of AP Indy has ever won the Derby

2) Whenever a Raise A Native line colt doesn't win the Derby as happened last year, they are shut out two years in a row. Therefore the trend suggests that nieither Done Talking nor any other RAN line colt will wear the garland of roses this year.

Look to a Northern Dancer line colt my friend: Union Rags, Daddy Nose Best or Trinniberg.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Draynay — Tue, 01 May 2012 16:56:07 GMT

Coldfacts please stop with the Done Talking nonsense... please.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Mary Zinke — Tue, 01 May 2012 16:55:48 GMT

Anyone know who the 1990 HOTY was? LOL

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Draynay — Tue, 01 May 2012 16:54:36 GMT

Union Buster you and Jayjay are chickens. 100 bucks says Union finishes in front of any horse you guys pick. Step up or shut up .... Jason has my $ where is yours ?

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

JayJay — Tue, 01 May 2012 16:16:09 GMT

Criminal Type : I posted my thoughts about the race, UR had a lot chances to be in a good position in that race but Julien made his decision to pull back the whole time, watch the race again. Please stop blaming Javier, yes, he made a tactical decision at the top of the stretch and who wouldn't, at some point in the past, I'm quite sure Julien has boxed other horses to gain advantage, it's horse racing. But Javier's ride is not the reason UR lost that race and it wasn't the reason that El Padrino lost that race. You can run the race again and EP will not win that race, he just wasn't himself that day. I just can't imagine Javier, who's riding one of the favorites and has a legitimate chance will compromise Gemologist and his own chance at winning the KD because he has it in for UR. He'll be aware of the horses who are behind him, if UR is one of them then yes he will be watching for him. I don't think he'll get out of the gate and find his way around UR just to "pin" him down.

On the TC topic, there's a difference between hoping and wishing and rooting for a horse to win the TC (it's called being a true fan), and when someone proclaims a horse the 2012 triple crown winner with no facts to support it except "hype" and "I want to be the first to say it" reason...and then ridicule people who questions it like they have no idea what they're talking about...like it was already set in stone. He can't produce one credible proof that UR is a superhorse because you know what ? he's not a superhorse, unless we see him win the Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont, UR is just one of 20 horses running in the Kentucky derby.

How about you and I wager, if UR wins, you tell me how your got your name and if he doesn't, you earn the right to tell the blog how you picked that name. Just don't hurt me.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

JayJay — Tue, 01 May 2012 14:59:56 GMT

Billy : I agree with Footlick and Laz, thanks for the detailed reporting of the workouts, as I said before I look forward to your reports from CD because you tell it like you see it. I really don't like reading the trainers thoughts on their horses' workouts. Your comments about Bode's matched up perfectly with what Haskin thought so I'll be looking at him if it's a wet track and ONLY if it's a wet track.

Draynay : I figured you'd run away from the bet. Learn to stick with your horse. For all the babbling and yapping and garbage you spew on here on how he's the best horse in the field, you don't have the cajones to back him up without any doubt. Send the money to Jason and prove you actually have the money to bet. Stop this wishy washy crap, trying to avoid the bet. For someone who likes to challenge everyone, you can't back up your bets.

BTW, what did you think of DNB's workout ? It wasn't in a muddy, sealed track. You said it will be dry. I'm looking forward to your spin on this one. I'm calling it right now, by Friday, your 6 horse superfecta box will be totally different. Either different or you'll box 12 horses with your virtual money. In blogs, your bets are sky's the limit so you can claim the day after that you hit the big one. In reality, I'm 100% sure, no doubt, that you bet dime superfectas. HAHAHA

Ranagulzion : I pick longshot winners. How do you win? I'm serious, by the time you finish handicapping the right pedigree from 30 years ago, the race would've run. LOL

Weather.com shows there's a 30% chance of rain, forecast is Isolated Thunderstorms.

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Weekend — Tue, 01 May 2012 14:48:08 GMT

Mike I saw Dullahan on the track and in the barn. He is a big ole boy, but like I stated, I don't like his high leg action. He will be better on synth/grass. I am going Thursday morning, so I will try to take notes on all of the contenders I see and the energy level they are carrying, how they are carrying their weight, the attitude, etc. I was impressed with the stride of Ill have another. He has a low stride that covers a lot of ground. I also want to see Summer Applause, Believe You Can, Grace Hall, Hard not to like, Edens Moon, and Aunt Jemima!!! I love some pancakes

re: Why They Can/Can't Win

Mike Monarchos — Tue, 01 May 2012 14:26:07 GMT

The draw is on TV tomorrow, right? I'll be glued to the tube. It will be very interesting. Who will get the dreaded 1 hole? I hope it's Trinniberg. Then the rest of the entrants will all have, at least, a fair chance.

Post positions are important to my scientific betting strategy. Because I make bets on things like birthdays, phone numbers, etc. Does anyone else make bets like that? I'd say that I have a better chance of hitting a bet than all the Derby Futures exacta bets I made this year. Those payoffs could be big though. I forgot about the throwing darts at the dart board handicapping method. I'm sure that will be very popular this year.