Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Ted from LA — Wed, 23 May 2012 21:32:57 GMT

The last word.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Ranagulzion — Fri, 04 May 2012 21:27:02 GMT

Mike Relva,

Nice to see you're back and tackling the 'egotist' War Admiral (LOL)

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Mike Relva — Fri, 04 May 2012 17:49:42 GMT

WAR ADMIRAL

Guess you're the smartest on the planet. Right. lmao

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Curlin — Fri, 04 May 2012 02:54:07 GMT

Still like Union Rags but hate the 4 post. As long as he can stay out of trouble until the far turn and make his way towards the outside, he'll be tough to beat. Going to go with an Oaks / Derby double of Jemima's Pearl and Union Rags. I see another big step forward for Jemima's Pearl and the pace of the race should be to her liking. This will be her 2nd race with Baffert and I think it will show big time. Doesn't hurt that she's been holding her own working with Bodemeister either.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Mike Relva — Fri, 04 May 2012 02:38:40 GMT

DRAYNAY

We don't agree on much, but you aren't the only one that's picked Union Rags months ago, I also like him. If he were to get beat, would be by CC.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

chucky — Fri, 04 May 2012 01:17:15 GMT

ROUSING SERMON is the LONGSHOT!!

that last furlong is his territory...he would have beaten liaison if they went 10 furlongs

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

War Admiral — Fri, 04 May 2012 00:02:42 GMT

This Derby is a laugher.

There is only one horse that can run in this pathetic field of 20 horses.

Any fool want to bet me one grand against Bodemeister.

Pick your horse.

Bodemeister is going to take this overrated field of 3yr olds out behind the woodshed and bash their brains in.

Do you pathetic people think the Breeders Cup Juvenile is going to produce your Derby winner?

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

El Kabong — Thu, 03 May 2012 21:35:31 GMT

Long Shot..............Went The Dayyyyyy Well! I can still hear Battaglia's Spiral call rattling around in my ears. Despite that, I like this guy. Like the connections too much to leave off. The horse didn't beat much last out, but he didn't pick the race. I think he has the class, talent and the breeding to get it done going 10F's which is the main concern here for all. About a Dozen or maybe more will be 10 lengths behind the winner for the simple fact that 10F's is too much. Not this guy.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Rinzler — Thu, 03 May 2012 19:35:49 GMT

WTDW FTW!!!

Lucky 13!!!

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

plodderman — Thu, 03 May 2012 18:05:35 GMT

bohemiastable - Alpha got a terrible ride in the Wood. The jockeys arm was so sore, he couldn't even whip right handed. All he did was whip left-handed coming into the srtetch, causing the horse to drift. Did you go for a beer at the top of the strtch??? As for his chances....Alpha comes home in 24 and change every race except the Wood. Good enough for me.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Householder — Thu, 03 May 2012 16:34:12 GMT

Post 14. Thanks for playing Hansen. Post 14 is 0-36 since 1975. Here is a few more to drop based on post, Daddly Long Legs, Optimizer, Trinniberg, Prospective, Done Talking, I'll Have Another, Liason.

Most Improved by Post. Daddy Nose Best Post 10, El Padrino Post 16.

Creative Cause 12-1!!!! He's certainly on the superfecta box praying for a win.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

plodderman — Thu, 03 May 2012 15:47:54 GMT

For the record - Grace Hall is three lenghts slower than a few of these. Forget the races she won.... Look at the races she LOST to see the REAL horse you are betting.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

plodderman — Thu, 03 May 2012 15:45:18 GMT

Oaks/Derby DD

On Fire Baby & Hard Not to Like WITH

Alpha & Prospective (5x)

................................

On Fire Baby & Hard Not to Like

WITH

All (1x)

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Criminal Type — Thu, 03 May 2012 13:09:36 GMT

Well, the post positions are in and it didn't change my picks at all. I would have prefered Union Rags were out further but the 4 is not an insurmountable position for him and Julien should be able to get him clear down the backside. I am no Handicapping expert, But I do know what I like. Im not wobbling on Union Rag's. I think he is an exceptional colt with talent we have not seen yet and I think he will win. That being said, im not an idiot either. In a field of twenty horses with it's inevitable traffic issues, it is literally a crapshoot, to quote Baffert. SO, not being an idiot, I will have 6 horses on my tickets. They are :

Union Rags

Bodemeister

I'll Have Another

Dullahan

Went the Day Well

Creative Cause

Longshot(s)

Prospective (he looks fabulous)

Both Daddy's

TCI

I do not see Trinniburg wiring this field and I hope I don't see him blocking everyone up in the stretch when his legs turn to rubber. I also do not see Hansen winning. He is admittedly a talented beautiful colt with a gorgeous head, but he is NOT going a mile and a quarter. I've been watching people fall off his wagon for a couple months. My biggest reason for not liking this horse is his owner. Dr Hansen needs to get a grip. He is insistant on turning this lovely horse into circus attraction and has stated there will be some surprises coming on Saturday <sigh>.

Grace Hall deserved to be favorite in the Oaks. She is an impressive filly and I LOVE daughters of Empire Maker, but I do not think she has a lock on the race. I will have her but I really like On Fire Baby (loved her grandsire Two Punch), Hard Not To Like (Hard Spun) and Karlovy Vary (Dynaformer)obviously, for sentimental reasons. Yea, I know sentementailty has no place in handicapping but nothing could be a more fitting tribute to Dynaformer then his daughter winning the Oaks this year.

Reading these comments makes me wish that one of you would replace your morning coffee with a big cup of STFU. Apparently you do not realize how 3rd grade you sound. I am not talking about Dray either. A lot of us are sure to look foolish on Sunday morning. I may be one of them and I accept that. As always, my most profound wish on Derby Day is that all the competitors get back to their barns safely.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

GunBow — Thu, 03 May 2012 09:45:08 GMT

Just two more days. Still time for defections, but we've been fortunate so far. The last 3 Derby fields were decimated by injuries in the months and even days leading up to the race. This year, almost all of the top horses are in Kentucky and a part of the official field. Let's hope it stays that way.

I don't think the post position draw affected things much. My initial thought was that the biggest losers from the draw were Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, and I'll Have Another.

Then, I remembered Take Charge Indy has Borel, and that from the 3 hole he can just drop right on over to the rail and sit in behind Trinni, Hansen, and Bodemeister. He should get the same trip that Super Saver received.

The 4 post is not terrible for Union Rags, but it does likely mean he will be inside horses for a good portion of the race, and that scenario didn't play out well in the Florida Derby. I'm not worried about another jockey race-riding against Rags, but the other jockeys will be able to keep tabs on him. My primary concern with the post is that since Rags is so tall and long striding, he might get more easily jammed in traffic, or worse be forced to wait up behind horses or check. Rags does have a wonderful long stride, but he's not the most nimble horse, and I question his ability to quickly accelerate(if forced to check) or weave between horses(if spacing becomes tight and his path obstructed). The ride becomes extra critical.

I also question the athleticism of I'll Have Another. The good news about post 19 is that he probably won't get stuck in traffic or be forced to do a lot of bobbing and weaving, stopping and starting. IHA is a horse that if allowed can click off 12s for as long as asked. Being on the outside, I could see him laying 4-5 lengths off the pace and then just running the leaders into the ground while getting first jump on the closers. However, from the 19 he's virtually guaranteed of being wide a good portion of the race. If Mario can keep him no more than 5 wide, he has a shot. However, if he is any wider than that, he doesn't have the nimble athleticism to quickly make up the lost ground. Additionally, he's a horse that needs to be forwardly placed the first 6 furlongs, and if he's forced really wide that first turn I could see him dropping to mid-pack and he simply doesn't have the explosiveness to make up a large deficit.

Bodemeister in the 6 is not bad, but I think Baffert would be willing to part with some money to switch stalls with Hansen.

Not surprised Liaison is doing better at Churchill. Liaison had his biggest success at Hollywood, and though the Hollywood maintrack is synthetic, it might be as similar to Churchill as is the Santa Anita dirt. When Oak Tree was held at Santa Anita in 2010, horses that prepped or trained at Hollywood ran solidly at Churchill in the Breeder's Cup, including Zenyatta, Lookin at Lucky, Blind Luck, Switch, Smiling Tiger, and Dakota Phone.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Ranagulzion — Thu, 03 May 2012 03:53:28 GMT

Here's a synopsis of the pace scenario:

1st Quarter will go in 23 or less (most liklely 22+) because Borel on Take Charge Indy from the 3hole wants to secure the rail (as Daddy Long Legs is caught flat footed at the off), Bodemeister doesn't want to be crowded and Trinniberg is naturally too fast to be stuck in the jostle for early positions.

2nd quarter/half mile in 46 and change as 'Bode' yields the lead to 'Trinni' with TCI holding that rail position with stalkers, Union Rags, Hansen, Gemologists, I'll have Another and Creative Cause within striking distance.

3rd quarter/6 furlongs in 1:10 and change, very fast fractions indeed but 'Trinni' is still cruising, 'Bode' still in it just off his flank, to the inside. However, at this point TCI and Hansen attempt to blow the race open, Bodemeister reacts, as does Trinniberg to complete the mile in 1:34 and change.

Turning for home, the front three: Bode, Hansen and Trinni come under pressure from the surging stalkers: Union Rags, Gemologist, I'll Have Another and Creative Cause. Some closers like Daddy Nose Best, El Padrino and Alpha have also made big moves to be in contention. A wall of horses straighten for the drive.

Union Rags emerges with the lead, challenged by Gemologist and I'll Have Another. But at the eighth pole U/Rags finds another gear and draws off impressively from Gemologist with Daddy Nose Best closing determinedly for third. The final time: I'll wait to see that one. Good luck.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Coldfacts — Thu, 03 May 2012 03:31:17 GMT

“Grace Hall is a monster and cannot be beat.”

Malibu Moon has been the sire of some of the best fillies/mares to race in the country in last five years. Below are a few of his G1 winning fillies/mares.

Devil May Care - Won Mother Goose S. (G1,Bel,8.5F), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1,Sar,9F), Bonnie Miss S. (G2,GP,9F)

Ask the Moon - Won Ruffian Invitational H. (G1,Sar,9f), Personal Ensign Invitational S. (G1,Sar,10f)

Life at Ten - Won Ogden Phipps H. [G1,Bel,8.5F], Beldame S. [G1,Bel,9F], Delaware H. [G2,Del,10F], Sixty Sails H. [G3,Haw,9F], Rare Treat S. [Aqu,9F]

Malibu Prayer - Won Ruffian H. (G1,Sar,9F), 2nd Mother Goose S. (G1,Bel,9F),

Eden's Moon will be Malibu Moon’s starter in the 2012 Kentucky Oaks. Based on his record as a sire of exceptional fillies, Eden's Moon must have an outstanding chance to win. Grace Hall may be considered a monster but Eden's Moon must be considered a potential monster slayer

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Coldfacts — Thu, 03 May 2012 02:44:43 GMT

Jason,

“My definition of a longshot for the Derby is anything over 10-1”

The above definition is clearly not applicable to the Derby field of 2012. The field is very competitive and it is expected that at least 15 of the 20 betting interests will be at double digit odds. Odds of 12-1/15-1 will be seen on possibly half of the betting interests falling outside the top 5. Therefore longshots must be considered those 20-1 and over.

ALPHA/DADDY NOSE BEST:

How can the above colts be considered longshots? Alpha made 3 starts as a 3YO and won 2 and was runner up by neck to one of he colts expect to be member of the top five betting interest. Alpha has the highest rating for the distance and his final work was excellent. Creative Cause made 3 starts as a 3YO and lost 2 and won the other by a head. Daddy Nose Best is the only colt in the filed that has two victories at 9F and had been reportedly thriving at CD.

PROSPECTIVE/DADDY LONG LEGS/DONE TALKING:

I consider the above clots longshot. PROSPECTIVE is one of the few in the field that has made 4 starts as a 3YO. He finished ahead of Reveron in the Sam Davis closing from far back. Reveron subsequently finished ahead of Union Rags who is expected to be at least the second favorite. He has a better route pedigree than Reveron and his TB Derby time was the second fastest in the history of the race. DADDY LONG LEGS is not being sent to the Derby to support American racing. He been in the pace in all his victories and if he takes to the CD surface and gets into a rhythm his long smooth stride will make him dangerous. He has a world class trainer and that has to be respected. DONE TALKING or Mr. Slow is getting no love. He can only improve off his IL Derby victory just a Charismatic improved off his Lexington victor to win the Derby. They are those that expect him to run 1:53.88 for his 9F split in the Derby. The average 9F split for the last 10 Derbies is about 1:49 and change. This colt had no pace to run at in his three victories. His trainer is expecting him to be mid pack. He will easily stay the Derby distance. He will be finishing best of all in what will be a contentious pace if Daddy Long Legs brings his A game. This colt is not as slow as everybody thinks. He has the pedigree; he did not even attract a minimum bet when passed through the sale ring which makes him a good Derby story. His dam won 3 of 4 starts and his second dam was Maryland champion 3 YO and HOY. Did I mentioned that she won a 9F race in 1:48 plus. HOY Have De Grave never broke 1:49 in all her 9F races. He is the only colt in the field that had a race that could be considered a simulation exercise for the Derby.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Paula Higgins — Thu, 03 May 2012 02:20:48 GMT

mz, congratulations on the birth of Giuliana (love the name)!

Hmmm... so IHA won't change leads? Great. But I am still sticking to Gemologist, Creative Cause and IHA. I think this thing is wide open. Bodemeister is getting all the love but I think there are a bunch that could pull this off. I am going with Grace Hall also.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Draynay — Thu, 03 May 2012 02:07:00 GMT

I will help you again. DD 100$ Doubles Partner/Union Rags they both win easy.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

ksweatman9 — Thu, 03 May 2012 01:42:43 GMT

Holy Smokes! I forgot about Sir Barton, so 3 horses won the triple crown after breaking from the #1 post position in the Derby. That accounts for something like 30%! That's huge in the land of odds. So Daddy Long Legs and company, think big on this one and take heart. Perhaps you will be the one to turn fate around. Good luck to you.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

steve from st louis — Wed, 02 May 2012 23:36:24 GMT

Plodderman: Why would I drink from Draynay's bottle when I ****** in it? 25,30-1. Especially from gate 11. He gets loaded first (1-11, 2-12) and that could cause him problems. Don't like that post at all. He's flighty in the gate, especially with 150,000 screaming Draynays. Still boxing Alpha with Bodemeister and Creative Cause. ABC!

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

skyfire — Wed, 02 May 2012 23:35:50 GMT

Love UR and Bode, so I am going to go with the top big race trainer, Baffert, for the tie breaker:

My four:

Bode

Rousing Sermon

Union Rags

Dullahan.

Baffert fillies and Grace Hall in the Oaks.

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Tiz Herself — Wed, 02 May 2012 23:25:49 GMT

From the video of Hansen having a sand bath and the one of him arriving at Churchill, looks like he is sure feeling his oats!

re: Four Derby Longshots Worth Considering

Tiz Herself — Wed, 02 May 2012 23:24:56 GMT

Well, now that the field is drawn, the starting positions will make it break it for many as it usually does.

Will be interesting to see who gets to the first turn first, whether it will be Bode, Trinn, Hansen or Take Charge Indy?

Am still rooting for my top six Gemologist, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Hansen, I'll Have Another, and Dullahan.

Was liking Daddy Long Legs, however with the one position is a deal breaker.

Jason, what do you think of the draws?